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[FF:Enhanced_Reality]

I think we're at an interesting time of this generation in a sense at how we've seen the console manufacturers change and grow. Nintendo started with the Wii-U which sold pretty poorly and are currently rocking it with the Switch which is selling gang busters. Sony started incredibly strong but like a piece of gum stretched out, through some bad publicity and... well, unpopular decisions to certain crowds the PlayStation 4 is starting to lose momentum with Sony hush hush on anything happening after Days Gone. Microsoft on the other hand seemed to be completely insignificant for a time and now they appear to be making big strides in development and their services, releasing a quality console with XBOX One X and gradually improving their roll, albeit with a lack of spectacular exclusive software.

All this talk and rumours of Microsoft and Nintendo having 'big plans' together, really makes me wonder what they mean. With the quiet approach from Sony, where does it leave them in the market? Is it a case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend? Or something much simpler than that?

I think by the end of the generation Nintendo will likely do what they have been doing. Evolving their core franchises and trying to sell more consoles and more of their own software. With the IP under their hood and their strength, no problem there.

Sony I think have a lot of secrets to share, at least I would hope when they come to announce a new console. I imagine there will be a standard and premium console, with some exciting launch titles and maybe even some acquisitions to announce.

Microsoft are the tricky one for me. They continue to acquire talent and studios and yet their want to put XBOX Live services on their competitors platforms makes it out like they don't actually need their own console as such. They could pull a big move and stop producing MineCraft content for other developers, but they don't. Content and IP they acquire appears to be coming to other consoles, so I do wonder, why bother with hardware at all? Why not allow hardware companies to licence the XBOX brand as a Windows gaming platform, leave the home consoles to Sony, the portable consoles to Nintendo and dominate PC with lot of devices inbetween that are effectively 'XBOX' but akin to Steam machines?

If Microsoft are not going to have these stellar exclusives on their platform and they aren't going to leverage the IP and studios they have acquired exclusively, then why do it at all? I cannot imagine for a moment Sony releasing the Uncharted series on XBOX. So why would Microsoft allow MineCraft to continue being developed on other platforms when they could push hardware by making Windows and XBOX the only place to play it? Should also increase Windows mobile and tablet sales equally. Why release Senua's Sacrifice on Switch? Why not keep Obsidian's RPG exclusive to XBOX? Drop their development on other consoles and focus solely on improving and polishing the XBOX experience? Same for We Happy Few?

I believe the most profitable future for Microsoft is as one of the biggest, if not the biggest, third party publisher.

What are your speculations about the future of the console manufacturers?

 

[DanielsM]

Speaking home consoles below, although I consider the Switch a hybrid.

Microsoft is easy, continue to convert existing traditional xbox users over, first from physical -> digital -> eventually to cloud services. As a traditional hardware/console manufacturer its probably coming to an end, although they will probably still release new hardware for the time being. (Eventually Microsoft will be a nearly 95%+ cloud services company) All roads lead to the cloud. What they are doing with Xbox is very similar to their mobile strategy once they figured out Windows Phone was dead man walking, the key difference is they have 30-50m customers that can be possibly convert via services - this was not really possible with WP users. (Expect many more service announcements to try and move the current Xbox users over)

Nintendo has always had an up and down history. NES great, SNES good, N64 average, Gamecube bad, Wii great, Wii horrible, and Switch great so far. The hybrid Switch seems to have worked out well, given their history - expecting trouble ahead after the Switch. I have no idea what they do, Switch is doing well, do they follow that up with a Switch 2?

Sony has the most steady history, other than say the first 2-3 years of PS3 sales it has been real steady over last 22+ years. PS3 costs and difficulties dragged it for quite some time. Running on all cylinders across the board now, if they don't screw up the PS5 by trying too hard or cutting traditional console features too much, they should do well - more or less the last man/woman standing in some regard with Microsoft going to new strategy over the last 5+ years.

Global dedicated consoles market -> I think there is room for 1-2 players, unless Sony screws up, they are in a good position.
Global dedicated handheld market -> probably only room for 1 at this point, too many tablets, phones and other devices - Nintendo is in a good position for the time being.

I think the issue I have going forward is DRM/physical media and what happens with that going forward - this can cause some difficulty to Sony.

 

[Breakage]

Sony
I still see Sony in the game with a PlayStation home console – the platform and brand identity is too valuable to abandon. I don't see them taking another shot at the handheld market. I could see them doing a Switch-style hybrid one day after PS5.
Microsoft
I can see the Xbox as a locked down traditional console (with its own identity and branding) becoming less important for Microsoft. No dedicated handheld.
Nintendo
I can see Nintendo sticking with the hybrid form factor for its home console. Handheld-wise, I think they will have a separate non-Switch console.
I could see them doing a wide-screen spiritual successor to the Game Boy Advance SP – single screen clamshell, lots of power, really thin, no gimmicks, and a simple control setup (D-pad/4-fire buttons/LR/ZL/ZR/2 circle pads)