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[b3b0p]

Nintendo are already third party, the quality argument is rubbish, will quality drop now that Nintendo have released its first of many mobile games ?

Quality will drop. It's a given. When I say quality, I mean the polish, the feel, the game play.

Look at any first party developer on any platform versus a third party developer on any platform. The quality is not anywhere near the same.

Mario versus any other platform game on a Nintendo console.
Uncharted, The Last of Us versus any other similar game on a Playstation platform.

Look what happened to Sonic. The games were pretty polished and felt higher quality when being exclusive to the Sega consoles. Now, they look, feel, and play like junk. Also, the appeal and desirability of everything Sega and Sonic is no where near what it was or could have been.

Even as a third party developer when Final Fantasy moved to multiple platforms the polish and quality dropped.

The polish and quality Nintendo gamers expect and are used to will drop.

Why would any of those things happen if they dont have a badly selling plastic box to go with their games?

Part of being a collector for anything is the strength, desirability of the brand and franchises that go with it. By being third party it dilutes their brand and products and no longer makes it as niche, exclusive, or I guess in collector/GAF/eBay vernacular, rare. It's not just the physical presence.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

What they SHOULD do: Go third party
What they WILL do: Try again

Yeah, laying off half their staff and taking a huge cut in profits from software sales is a fantastic idea for them as a company. It makes perfect sense.

 

[Choomp]

I've thought about this several times, and if they really haven't learned after the Wii U nothing will probably change and they'll just do the same thing again I think

 

[JordanN]

That's about releasing games on the PC, something that everyone wants to see from every company. Releasing games on a different console is a completely different scenario.

The logic is still the same.

They would be releasing games on another platform with the idea they'll make money.

 

[wapplew]

I think thier mobile initiative will be a big success and keep them afloat.

 

[Kill3r7]

If they can pull off some semblance of a shared library across portable and console and sell 50-60+ million combined they could make a lot of money given the attach rate for their titles is already high and would go up if everyone who owned either platform could buy the title.



Gaming will eventually be all App Store fronts anway, and eventually with the processing done in the cloud.

Probably right, but short term I think PC might appeal to Nintendo more as they can have their own storefront and do not need to share the profits with anyone.

 

[friskykillface]

I think they'd just give up on home consoles and go into mobile x handhelds

Pokemon will always sell and you can just have that for every handheld launch x sequels during the middle and you'd be in decent shape

 

[Okami Haundo]

People really still juggle the idea of them going third party? Maybe smartphone apps, but I'm pretty sure they've stated they're out of consoles if they ever stop making them.

That was a quote by Iwata quite some time ago. I wish I could find where I first read it, but I know it was before the launch of the Wii-U. It strikes me as more of a hypothetical answer to a hypothetical question than something that should be taken literally.

 

[LegendofLex]

Really pissed after hearing Reggie's quote regarding the power of the NX. Nintendo should be going out of their way to make the NX as powerful as possible, even if it means initially selling the system at a loss. The PS3 was sold at a loss and sold poorly at the very beginning, however it evenutally became a big success.

PS3 was such a huge failure that Sony hasn't even made up for what they lost years later.

NX should be exactly as powerful as Nintendo's market opportunity requires it to be. If it's more powerful (and more expensive as a result), they risk missing out on a low-end market opportunity (like PS3 did). If it's not priced correctly for its perceived value/there isn't sufficient value in its lineup and other characteristics, they risk the product being perceived as poor (as Wii U is).

 

[CharminUltra]

Has any other gaming company been "doomed" as long as Nintendo? I knew people back in high school (late 90s) who swore to me Nintendo would go out of business in a year or two.

 

[geordiemp]

Probably right, but short term I think PC might appeal to Nintendo more as they can have their own storefront and do not need to share the profits with anyone.

That makes more sense to me.

Yeah, laying off half their staff and taking a huge cut in profits from software sales is a fantastic idea for them as a company. It makes perfect sense.

What software sales and what profits do you speak ?

 

[Weltall Zero]

I have no clue, and also have no clue how they plan to avoid the NX flopping in the first place, besides "Zelda". I would be lying if I said it doesn't make me quite uneasy as a Nintendo fan. :/

 

[JoeM86]

That makes more sense to me.



What software sales and what profits do you speak ?

Let's see.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/software/3ds.html
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/software/wiiu.html

Those are just the top 10 first party games.

You then have third party games, which are still a thing, both indies and 3DS. Look at Yo-kai Watch with over 9 million games sold globally. That's a lot of licensing revenue.

Nintendo also are in profit.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Probably right, but short term I think PC might appeal to Nintendo more as they can have their own storefront and do not need to share the profits with anyone.

Definitely. By gaming going apps I mean PC apps, apps on smart TVs and set top boxes etc.

Not other consoles where people have to pay royalties etc.

 

[MuchoMalo]

Isn't this the issue though? How do you make that device without it being overly expensive and a battery life sucker. For it to have meaningful TV play it would need to render at 1080p, and if it's rendering at 1080p, the handheld screen should probably also be 1080p. The power is out there to pull that off with the most recent Tegra stuff, but theyd have to price it outside the acceptable price range of a dedicated gaming handheld.

It could still hit $200 with that level power, though perhaps not with a 1080p screen. The Sheild Tablet K1 is already over 2x Wii U for $200 with Nvidia's profit margins, so matching Wii U with a smaller screen and a newer chip for $200 or less shouldn't be an issue at all. Smaller screen + lower clocks + 16nmFF+ + decent battery size = waaaaaaay better battery life than 3DS. At least 2-3x. Also, ignoring his app idea, Nintendo could make a console using the exact same chip running at higher clocks. Then they only have to design one chip for both the console and the handheld, decreasing costs for both exponentially with time. I'm almost certain that this is the route Nintendo plans to take with NX: a handheld with power comparable to Wii U with a 720p screen for $200, and a console 2-3x as powerful as that that which runs the same games at 1080p for $150-200. I think that will probably prove to be a financial success for them, though I don't know if it'll be enough to keep them in hardware. Hopefully it would attract new and lapsed Nintendo fans by being in impulse-buy territory with $30-40 games.

On topic though, honestly, Nintendo's way too unpredictable at this point. Any other company would have gone third-party after GameCube, though if NX sells worse than Wii U I'm not sure even Nintendo could go on. I'm terrified that they'll just go 100% mobile and sign a deal with Apple though.

 

[FLEABttn]

NX will be measured across two pieces of hardware, maybe more. NX is a platform. If Nintendo sells 10 million NX consoles but 60 million NX handhelds (equivalent to Wii U and 3DS install bases), then their total NX base is 70 million

Who is this going to fool? Not to downplay cost cutting but investors aren't going to be enthralled by a merged ecosystem selling as much as the two ecosystems before it combined, because they're going to still know that the two ecosystems before that sold 255M+

My company's stock price has taken a beating (down 30%) because there are concerns it can't maintain double digits margins anymore; investors are going to be pleased that the merged ecosystem is less than 3.5 times what the two, two prior gens was combined? No. Cost savings be damned.

 

[Pancake Mix]

Probably third party.

It would be really bad for Nintendo, but probably not that bad for gamers. This way we wouldn't have to buy 2 consoles (like Wii U and PS4) to enjoy different games.

They'd downsize and focus on mobile for sure. They wouldn't make stuff like Xenoblade on PS4, let's be real here. A third-party Nintendo would suck hard and wouldn't be the Nintendo you remember at all.

 

[theangrypirate]

Did the company just disintegrate when it dropped from 77 a share to 11.89 in a little over 4 years? Did the share holders force Nintendo to change how they operate then?

They will explain that the deals that they've been putting in place outside of gaming are to add growth and eventually fuel hardware sales and everything will be fine.

So you're telling me in 4 years time investors lost 85% of their investment (presumably because the Wii-U) and you think another 85% loss will be fine for the company and the the investors will continue to throw their money at Nintendo if they just explain themselves again because Nintendo?

And yeah, the shareholders did force Nintendo to change how they operate. Why do you think they went mobile?

 

[Daft Punk]

So you're telling me in 4 years time investors lost 85% of their investment (presumably because the Wii-U) and you think another 85% loss will be fine for the company and the the investors will continue to throw their money at Nintendo if they just explain themselves again because Nintendo?

And yeah, the shareholders did force Nintendo to change how they operate. Why do you think they went mobile?

The Nintendo Warchest mayne.

 

[Reallink]

That was a quote by Iwata quite some time ago. I wish I could find where I first read it, but I know it was before the launch of the Wii-U. It strikes me as more of a hypothetical answer to a hypothetical question than something that should be taken literally.

Even if it were true, I'm pretty confident most of the internal talent doesn't want to make Miitomo shit, and plenty of people/companies (internal, external, domestic, and foreign) would be chomping at the bit to set up a new studio for Nintendo defectors.

 

[MuchoMalo]

Who is this going to fool? Not to downplay cost cutting but investors aren't going to be enthralled by a merged ecosystem selling as much as the two ecosystems before it combined, because they're going to still know that the two ecosystems before that sold 255M+

My company's stock price has taken a beating (down 30%) because there are concerns it can't maintain double digits margins anymore; investors are going to be please that the merged ecosystem is less than 3.5 times what the two, two prior gens was combined? No. Cost savings be damned.

If Nintendo only cared about pleasing investors, we'd be playing Super Mario Mobile Land right now instead of arguing over this, since there would be no NX. Instead, they looked for a compromise, and even then it likely wasn't just because of investors.

So you're telling me in 4 years time investors lost 85% of their investment (presumably because the Wii-U) and you think another 85% loss will be fine for the company and the the investors will continue to throw their money at Nintendo if they just explain themselves again because Nintendo?

And yeah, the shareholders did force Nintendo to change how they operate. Why do you think they went mobile?

Well, the chances of it dropping another 85% are virtually zero...

 

[Fredrik]

The current NX plans are all according to Iwata's original plan for the future, they said they wouldn't change those plans this time, but if NX fails then they'll probably rethink their whole business model and try doing things differently. Anyhow, no worries, Nintendo won't go down without a fight.

 

[lwilliams3]

One thing, I'm not critizising the Zelda show (in fact I like it a lot) but I think Nintendo could do a lot more and they are simply losing chances.

I hear you. I don't know what Nintendo is doing behind the scenes, but I hope that they are doing some great planning to hit a home run when they do announced the NX to everyone. They are intentionally hiding the system until close to the 11th hour. That's ballsy; I give them that.

 

[PtM]

Pachter answered this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RfXG2Nkbg4

 

[lwilliams3]

Who is this going to fool? Not to downplay cost cutting but investors aren't going to be enthralled by a merged ecosystem selling as much as the two ecosystems before it combined, because they're going to still know that the two ecosystems before that sold 255M+

My company's stock price has taken a beating (down 30%) because there are concerns it can't maintain double digits margins anymore; investors are going to be pleased that the merged ecosystem is less than 3.5 times what the two, two prior gens was combined? No. Cost savings be damned.

If we are going by the 70 million userbase + saving money + money from other endeavors, that would be an improvement over what they have now. I doubt that Nintendo would consider that a success, though.

The current NX plans are all according to Iwata's original plan for the future, they said they wouldn't change those plans this time, but if NX fails then they'll probably rethink their whole business model and try doing things differently. Anyhow, no worries, Nintendo won't go down without a fight.

True.

 

[Astral Dog]

DOOM

 

[Petrae]

Ahem, The Wizard.

That movie was litteraly a commercial.
Not only that they had cartoons, Captain N, the mario show, which had mario cartoons and zelda bits. They won kids heart back then ever since theyve done nothing of the sort.

This is an incredibly dated example, and Nintendo was already pretty much the dominant player in the console environment at the time. The Wizard might have sold people on Super Mario 3, but not NES boxes.

Times are far different now. A Mario movie (stay away, John Leguizamo) isn't going to suddenly convince people that, "Oh shit! We've gotta buy that NX thing!" Kids these days aren't even as familiar with Mario as they are with Minecraft-- or Angry Birds, before that.

Nintendo still has the Herculean task of trying to make people interested in its console hardware again, after the WiiU disasterbacle. Consumers have largely chosen their consoles of choice, and it's going to take a ton of work (low price, expanded storage, compelling first- AND third-party software, and more) to hook them.

 

[etking]

Nintendo could release their Games on Steam or PS4. And the mobile division will create the most revenue at the lowest cost, as soon as they start releasing AAA games for Android / iOS.

 

[Skittzo0413]

One thing no one in this thread brought up is that Nintendo has explicitly stated exactly what they plan to do after the NX launches. NX will be the first piece of hardware in their new ecosystem, an ecosystem which, as they have stated, is designed specifically to be both forward and backward compatible in the future.

This means NX2 will play NX games, and NX will play NX2 games. The install base for NX2 games is not zero at launch, as it essentially has been for every console launch we've seen so far (besides I suppose Neo and Scorpio).

This is Nintendo's grand solution to the dwindling hardware sales since the NES. Maybe the NX does flop, but if the NX2 comes out with all of the NX software compatible and ~10 million users already in the NX ecosystem, that's a much more attractive console launch for third parties to support.

I believe the NX and all Nintendo software/hardware going forward will place a huge focus on scalability so that very little work will have to be done to release your software across all of the various NX devices. That's how you achieve forwards compatibility and that's somewhat of a game changer.

Of course Neo and Scorpio might also be forward compatible going forward, but as far as we know now those are not clean breaks from the PS4 and XB1 in the way the NX is a clean break from the Wii and Wii U.

 

[PinkyMonkey]

What ever happened to the QoL products that were supposed to diversify Nintendo in case their game business started dying?

 

[KageMaru]

I'd be happy if the NX was around XBO/PS4 performance levels but sadly that doesn't seem likely.

 

[Schrödinger's cat]

The only thing I'm certain of is that "go third party" will not happen.

Diversify: Nintendo have experimented and found success with Amiibo. They're venturing into mobile. I believe theme park attractions and movies are in the works. They already do very well with merchandising.

Really, is the return on investment worth the risk when it actually comes to making conventional videogames?

So, my guess is that they would regroup, assess other fields they can put their IP to work, and continue to profit.

I just hope they give me at least one more proper Metroid game before that happens.

 

[Guevara]

Nintendo will simply release hardware flop after flop after flop until their entire current management committee is dead or retired. More likely dead.

 

[Plinko]

Check out Nintendo stock price jumps and market comments over past year since the mobile announcements, and drops when mobile was not a major IP, then ....OK, do your own homework...... Its pretty clear what excites the market.

If you think that Nintendo stocks are not heavily influenced by mobile opportunities then you have been living under a rock...in your own little world....

Nintendo stocks are absolutely influenced by mobile opportunities. I referenced them going mobile earlier in this thread. When people on GAF refer to "third party," most are referring to Nintendo putting games on Sony/MS systems.

I was referring to your comment about "investors want Nintendo to go third party," and I notice you conveniently ignored my question, so I'll ask it again:

Any source for that?

 

[digdug2k]

I'm still sorta more curious what happens when the Scorpio/Neo completely flop.

 

[……forgetit]

I'm still sorta more curious what happens when the Scorpio/Neo completely flop.

They won't, but if they did Sony and Microsoft would just go back to normal console cycles.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

What ever happened to the QoL products that were supposed to diversify Nintendo in case their game business started dying?

I'm guessing they realized they were too late to that party with Fitbit and everything else already out there.

 

[lwilliams3]

I'd be happy if the NX was around XBO/PS4 performance levels but sadly that doesn't seem likely.

What makes you think that?

I'm still sorta more curious what happens when the Scorpio/Neo completely flop.

They could simply move on to PS5/XBTwo.

 

[RoadHazard]

Nintendo could make a console more powerful than Scorpio and Neo combined and they would still be shunned by 3rd parties. The idea that 3rd parties are held back by Nintendo's power is simply a myth. Look at DS - woefully underpowered, unconventional layout that made simple ports impossible, and it had the best 3rd party support of maybe any Nintendo system.

3rd parties simply don't like working with Nintendo. Ninteno has to carry their own weight or go 3rd party themselves.

Impressively self-contradicting post, congrats!

 

[lherre]

Isn't this the issue though? How do you make that device without it being overly expensive and a battery life sucker. For it to have meaningful TV play it would need to render at 1080p, and if it's rendering at 1080p, the handheld screen should probably also be 1080p. The power is out there to pull that off with the most recent Tegra stuff, but theyd have to price it outside the acceptable price range of a dedicated gaming handheld.

Think about the power that Wiiu uses to function. Now remove the parts you don't need in a portable device and the use of better and optimized tech for 2015.

Do you think you won't have a comparable machine to Wiiu but portable? And besides you don't need 1080p to have good results there.

I don't know why the people are against this possibility of a hybrid machine.

Spoiler

I'm not saying that NX is this. I'm only saying that it is a technical possibility in 2016. But obviously you won't have ps4/one power

 

[Crayon]

Considering how they have weathered the Wii U situation, I think they'd just keep on truckin.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Nintendo will probably push further to have a smartphone and tablet presence to help fund the organization even in times of home and portable console trouble. They will never ever go third party, unless third party means iOS and Android.

I give them five years from NX launch before they eliminate the hardware business and become a software/IP company.

They would exit the home console market.

Not going to happen, Nitnendo will find a way to stay in the market.

They will continue selling Amibos and invest in things like amusment parks, spin-offs, mobile games etc.. They will not suddenly change and say "8 TFlops, GTA6 exclusive, all the third partieeeeeeees". They will sell the console at a proft but won't go crazy.

Yup, Nintendo is thankfully expanding their branding and marketing past their traditional sectors. That is a good thing to have extra sources of revenue and not be dependent on hardware and software sales.

Yeah but Sega had a string of flops and lost money off nearly all of them. The Wii U underperformed but Nintendo still made profit from it.

Ha ha ha, you funny.

The 3DS and Amiibos were huge moneymakers, the Wii U probably never made profit in its entire existence.

 

[Wagram]

Nintendo's chances are running out. People stating they'll simply "try again" don't understand how business works. Nintendo doesn't have endless cash stored.

 

[Pie and Beans]

To people that keep pointing towards the Wii and DS' successes as a portent of Nintendo turning it around again, please understand the global technology environment of 2017 is so different to 2006 that comparisons are almost completely irrelevant:

The DS and Wii sold their excess of a usual console generation to the 'blue ocean' of people that didn't consume entertainment on PC's or traditional videogame consoles. A DS and Brain Training was the perfect mom/dad/grandparent gift and so too was the novelty of Wii Sports. It was old underutilised tech that other companies hadn't used or focussed on before. Cheap tech to people that didn't own tech. Fast forward to now, and everyone has tech spilling out of their pockets: smartphones, e-readers, tablets, fitbands. There is no 'unused tech', its ALL being used. There's no special underground and overlooked spin on screen into eyes entertainment. The blue ocean of "people that don't consume entertainment on tech" has ceased to exist. It is no longer there. To impress them, you have to bring cutting edge technology and swallow costs to build platforms.

There quite simply isn't some mythical consumer set waiting in the wings to dive into videogames through their first use of tech; that person plays mobile games.

At most, Nintendo can shore up their faithful consumers and prime them to purchase more first party software than ever before and have them consume media at a higher rate. The way to do this is to make sure both the handheld and home unit play the exact same games and interact with each other seamlessly; aka The Hybrid. There can't be home console exclusive games because then you're already competing with yourself in the already dwindling base you've got. Everything has to be playable on that handheld because thats where your money is.

NX will be measured across two pieces of hardware, maybe more. NX is a platform. If Nintendo sells 10 million NX consoles but 60 million NX handhelds (equivalent to Wii U and 3DS install bases), then their total NX base is 70 million.

That's 70 million people to sell their software and potential services to. No more putting half their development resources towards a platform with 10 million. All resources go towards satisfying a base of 70 million. Software is the money-maker in this industry.

For this to be true, Zelda: Breath Of The Wild will have to be released on NX Home and NX Handheld. At this point then, the hybrid has become reality. If there are games that do not come to the handheld but instead come to the home console exclusively, you cannot lump them all together as an install base as then the handhelds install base becomes the 'opportunity cost' on each and every exclusive game.

 

[Okami Haundo]

Even if it were true, I'm pretty confident most of the internal talent doesn't want to make Miitomo shit, and plenty of people/companies (internal, external, domestic, and foreign) would be chomping at the bit to set up a new studio for Nintendo defectors.

Woah woah woah, why would a Nintendo that doesn't have hardware have to focus on content like Miitomo? Nintendo doesn't strike me as the kind of company that would sell their creative freedom, and they wouldn't have to. If Nintendo ever wanted to go third-party, both Sony and Microsoft would be kicking down their door to make offers just for their games alone.

 

[Plinko]

Nintendo's chances are running out. People stating they'll simply "try again" don't understand how business works. Nintendo doesn't have endless cash stored.

To be fair, many in this thread are in the other ditch thinking they're like Sega in their last days.

 

[MuchoMalo]

Think about the power that Wiiu uses to function. Now remove the parts you don't need in a portable device and the use of better and optimized tech for 2015.

Do you think you won't have a comparable machine to Wiiu but portable? And besides you don't need 1080p to have good results there.

I don't know why the people are against this possibility of a hybrid machine.

Spoiler

I'm not saying that NX is this. I'm only saying that it is a technical possibility in 2016. But obviously you won't have ps4/one power

I don't want it because it sounds clunky and I'm not satisfied with Wii U-level performance in a console. Just look at Zelda to see why: bad performance and the biggest graphical downgrade of the entire generation, if not the past two generations. I'd likely only end up using it as a handheld in that case, which means spending extra money on features I won't ever use. It also wouldn't even really be a handheld in the first place. Is your phone a phone/HTPC hybrid when you buy a Chromecast? No, it's still a phone. A handheld that connects to your TV is still a handheld.

 

[SalvaPot]

Nintendo can have a flop like Wii U and still make a bit of money. If they fail they could just focus on their own service and keep providing games for it, by themselves.

And they can try again, its Nintendo, they have the IP power to survive pretty much anything.

 

[JetSetRadio]

We will see what happens in 2018.

 

[MuchoMalo]

To people that keep pointing towards the Wii and DS' successes as a portent of Nintendo turning it around again, please understand the global technology environment of 2017 is so different to 2006 that comparisons are almost completely irrelevant:

The DS and Wii sold their excess of a usual console generation to the 'blue ocean' of people that didn't consume entertainment on PC's or traditional videogame consoles. A DS and Brain Training was the perfect mom/dad/grandparent gift and so too was the novelty of Wii Sports. It was old underutilised tech that other companies hadn't used or focussed on before. Cheap tech to people that didn't own tech. Fast forward to now, and everyone has tech spilling out of their pockets: smartphones, e-readers, tablets, fitbands. There is no 'unused tech', its ALL being used. There's no special underground and overlooked spin on screen into eyes entertainment. The blue ocean of "people that don't consume entertainment on tech" has ceased to exist. It is no longer there. To impress them, you have to bring cutting edge technology and swallow costs to build platforms.

There quite simply isn't some mythical consumer set waiting in the wings to dive into videogames through their first use of tech; that person plays mobile games.

At most, Nintendo can shore up their faithful consumers and prime them to purchase more first party software than ever before and have them consume media at a higher rate. The way to do this is to make sure both the handheld and home unit play the exact same games and interact with each other seamlessly; aka The Hybrid. There can't be home console exclusive games because then you're already competing with yourself in the already dwindling base you've got. Everything has to be playable on that handheld because thats where your money is.



For this to be true, Zelda: Breath Of The Wild will have to be released on NX Home and NX Handheld. At this point then, the hybrid has become reality. If there are games that do not come to the handheld but instead come to the home console exclusively, you cannot lump them all together as an install base as then the handhelds install base becomes the 'opportunity cost' on each and every exclusive game.

That said, I'd still take a "hybrid" over this. A 100% shared library would be awful and pointless. None of the games would look better on console than handheld besides resolution and it still wouldn't get third-party support, so what would even be the point of the console? Might as well just go hybrid at that point. I think a 100% shared library causes more self-competition on the hardware side, not less. If there are exclusive games, there's more incentive to buy both. If there aren't, there's no incentive. Then the console doesn't sell any better than Wii U (I can't see such a console selling even half as much as Wii U unless it's like $80), making it a waste of money so they either go 100% handheld or third-party. In other words, either route means the end of the console business for Nintendo.

We will see what happens in 2018.

You think NX will dropped after a year? Ouch. Predicting Virtual Boy 2 before we know anything about the console is pretty extreme.