Steve Youngblood
Member
Well, they're probably not going to be as profitable as they were anytime soon. But I would imagine modest profits are achievable provided they don't have to do something desperate with the Wii U like they did with the 3DS.
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Wii U sales compared to PS2, 360, PS3, & Wii - Not doomed
- Thread starter Mr.Squirrel
- Start date
Well, they're probably not going to be as profitable as they were anytime soon. But I would imagine modest profits are achievable provided they don't have to do something desperate with the Wii U like they did with the 3DS.
I think he was talking more about quality.
the bulk of n64 thirdparty support was from or for US since there the system was successful as the snes.
yet in that case it's very likely wii u will surpass the wii.
even at launch despite the many ports/enanched versions the quality was much better compared to what we got on average.
i'm not sure you realize how insanely profitable was nintendo past gen.
we're talking about a figure above 15 billion dollars.
It's unlikely another company in the traditional console business will achieve that again.
nintendo included.
Maxwell House
Member
With Orbis and Durango almost for certain being massively more powerful than Wii U, Nintendo is in very big trouble come this fall once all the players available in this next gen are finally available for everyone to buy. Wii U is in for a serious world of hurt and I can't imagine how Nintendo will be able to get Wii U to sell well once people see how underpowered the system is compared to the other players.
Maybe Wii U would have a chance if it were able to build up a sizeable lead before the next Playstation and Xbox released but that doesn't seem likely at all.
I think Wii U is on the road to be a cataclysmic disaster, one so utterly awful that Nintendo somehow is forced to reboot on a new home console well before the typical 5 year minimum life cycle passes.
Maybe Wii U would have a chance if it were able to build up a sizeable lead before the next Playstation and Xbox released but that doesn't seem likely at all.
I think Wii U is on the road to be a cataclysmic disaster, one so utterly awful that Nintendo somehow is forced to reboot on a new home console well before the typical 5 year minimum life cycle passes.
You say this knowing literally jack shit about either console from Microsoft and Sony. Most importantly, you don't know the price.
Its pretty evident that both consoles will in fact be more powerful than the WiiU. Sure nothing has been announced, but there seems to be more than enough information going around to make it pretty clear that both systems will be on par with each other, and a sizable step up from current systems.
As for price, after 599 I can't imagine either system will release higher than 500, but most likely 399$. Assuming these kinds of things is no different than 'assuming' the WiiU will have some magical lineup of original games in less than a year.
Baconsammy
Banned
We know quite a bit actually. We know they won't use an account system that ties our purchases to the hardware instead of to us. We know they'll have quality third party support right out of the gate. We know they'll have an achievement system. We know they'll have the support of a ton of smaller indie companies making downloadable games for them. We know their consoles will be more powerful than the 360/PS3. We know they'll offer more services right out of the box than the Wii U. We don't know the specific hardware specs, but we have a pretty good idea.
Steve Youngblood
Member
This particular bit of cautioning is something I find unwarranted. Mind you, I could be wrong, and I'll happily eat crow if I am. However, I don't think everyone has ignored recent history. It should become clear that there's a price ceiling that people aren't going to pay over. I don't think everyone was asleep at the switch when the PS3 struggled at $599, or when the 3DS and Vita struggled at $250 (high by portable standards).
As for specs, though perhaps they might fall short of the Herculean specs some are suggesting, I don't see any reason to suspect that either will go the Nintendo route and release a machine on par with current specs with a unique interface hook. Unless someone thinks that the 720 is going to come standard with some sort of Super Kinect device built in that eats up most of the cost. So, honestly, the notion that anyone else might aim low seems bizarre to me.
Honestly, my biggest question mark about the viability of the 720/PS3 launches is the question of will next-gen exclusive/targeted, AAA software be ready to go for the next holiday. If all they've got ready is stuff originally targeted for 360 specs, but now in 1080p, I'm not sure if they'll move $400 consoles in large quantities, particularly if most of those games are also seeing 360/PS3/Wii U releases.
Version 3.0
Member
Well, that's clearly wrong, since those were the fastest-selling systems in history. Nintendo will be profitable if they can at least get to Gamecube-level sales (hardware and software), since the Gamecube was profitable. They don't have to get anywhere near the record-breaking pace of the Wii or DS.
Obviously, PS4/720 will be more powerful than Wii U. Duh.
Sorry, You really don't know any of that.
You're making assumptions. Educated guesses, sure, but they are guesses.
Nintendo just launched a console overpriced by $50, after they made the same mistake with 3DS. Sony refuses to cut the price of the PS3 and Vita because of an extremely tight financial situation. Microsoft's stock is under siege seemingly every quarter, and the total cost of ownership of the Xbox brand continues to go up. Have they really learned anything?
Let me clarify that this is not a Nintendo problem. Or a Microsoft problem. Or a Sony problem. It's a home console problem. How do these companies balance the cost of these machines against thousands of devices that provide the same services for fractions of the cost?
Sorry, You really don't know any of that.
You're making assumptions. Educated guesses, sure, but they are guesses.
Nintendo just launched a console overpriced by $50, after they made the same mistake with 3DS. Sony refuses to cut the price of the PS3 and Vita because of an extremely tight financial situation. Microsoft's stock is under siege seemingly every quarter, and the total cost of ownership of the Xbox brand continues to go up. Have they really learned anything?
Let me clarify that this is not a Nintendo problem. Or a Microsoft problem. Or a Sony problem. It's a home console problem. How do these companies balance the cost of these machines against thousands of devices that provide the same services for fractions of the cost?
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
It's not entirely clear if the WiiU is overpriced at all.
There are dozens of reasons it might be slow out of the gate;
- lack of compelling software
- lack of market understanding / awareness
- people waiting to see what the competitors have lined up before committing
- people generally content with existing hardware
etc etc etc
Nah, you are being silly
The starting price should be something reasonable. Maybe people don't think the current price reflects the hardware very well, but to make the Wii U as cheap as possible would also devalue the Nintendo-brand. And of course it takes away the possibility for pricedrops later on in the Wii U lifecycle.
BoboBrazil
Member
Yep, it will be $199 by Christmas though. Only way it will be able to compete with the PS4 and 720 is as a value priced alternative for cheap parents who want something with a kid friendly image.. I'd imagine the first price drop will come within the next few months by atleast $50. Noone is buying these things. Walmart by me is so overstocked with units now they have started filling the other cases with them that usually hold the other consoles. I'd imagine NPD for January will have this at around 100,000 units or maybe even less sold.
Really? The only way it can compete is a $150 price drop? Not compelling software? The games industry is totally fucked.
And whose to say a $299 Wii U won't look cheap against a 720? What if 720 is $450?
Steve Youngblood
Member
I don't know if I agree that the Wii U is overpriced. Mind you, I agree it's overpriced in the sense that some don't buy into the utility of the game pad and therefore $350 for that hardware seems high. However, I don't think it's high in absolute terms. I think consoles can move at $350. Even $400 I think is doable.
So, let's say Microsoft is targeting $400. Nintendo released a console for $50 - $100 cheaper than that, and a lot of that cost is eaten up with the GamePad. Further, they seemed intent on the thing being quiet and consuming minimal power. So, throw that out the window, and I think there's plenty of wiggle room in the budget for hardware upgrades.
The only thing that could screw that up would be bundling some sort of expensive Kinect upgrade in every box. On the Sony front, I don't want to give them too much credit. However, I do think they understand that the pressure is on. They have absolutely no leeway to launch poorly again and weather the storm. Unless they go with some sort of crazy "go big or go home" gambit, I'm expecting a modest upgraded of current consoles at a modest price.
BoboBrazil
Member
PS4 and 720 won't launch for more than $399. A $299 Wii U won't compare to $99-$199 360 and PS3 at that point either price wise especially when those consoles have a much better selection of games. What kind of compelling software can they release that appeals to anyone other than their diehard Nintendo fans at this point, which is getting to be a smaller and smaller group? The games that sold well on Wii like Wii Sports and Wii Fit might do well on Wii U, but everyone has motion controls now so noone cares and it won't move a large amount of systems. What else can they release? Their best bet is to be a kid friendly cheap alternative to the PS4 and 720.
Judging by this thread, you don't seem to be convinced that any large number selling Nintendo franchise will do it. I want new IPs as much as the next person but they aren't the entire equation. How many people on GAF have said they are holding out and waiting for the big franchises to make their appearances? Do you think this transitions out to the mass market as well?
Kacho
Member
Your thoughts and opinions on next gen consoles and the market as a whole are often wild and crazy, but interesting nonetheless.
Steve Youngblood
Member
I know this wasn't addressed to me, but my personal opinion is that it'll definitely help. There's no doubt in my mind that one or more of Mario Kart, 3D Mario, or Smash (though I highly doubt the latter will be available this year more than any other first party possibility) would move some hardware. I just think that sometimes this suggestion gets a little carried away.
Meaning, it'll improve the situation. But I don't think that these are just automatic "Console Wars Win Now" titles like some people seem to think. Meaning, if the situation is bad, I think a couple of big titles can turn the tide. But I don't think it leads to this overnight turnaround of "bad to great." The only thing you can say with certainty is that next holiday season will certainly look more promising with some of the key franchises leading the charge.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
That's like asking what kind of compelling software EA can release that targets anyone other than their diehard fans, or what kind of compelling software Activision can release that doesnt target diehard Activision fans.
"Nintendo games" isn't a genre, and those who think it is are pursuing their own agenda.
BoboBrazil
Member
Major franchises like a 3D Mario or a new Zelda will sell consoles, but it's just not going to be a huge amount. I say by the end of it's run they might be lucky to sell 20-30 million units. Close to what the Gamecube has done or possibly a little more. I'm guessing Nintendo drops this console quickly though and moves on to their next within 3-4 years.
well, are we thinking that only Nintendo diehards got Wii? If not, then I am sure they can sell Wii U to similar audience.
Only problem is that it might get PS3 versions of games, not PS4.
In any case, I hope all 10 "consoles" on the market sell in good quantities so their companies can invest more money into building better experiences for all of us... it would be sad world if we had to resort to playing 99c games on big screen.
BoboBrazil
Member
Nintendo wishes it could have the output of games like an Activision or EA. Nintendo releases 2-3 games a year at most for it's home consoles and those are typically within it's established franchises. I'd love for Nintendo to experiment with new console ips or shit, even release a new Wave Race, but it's just not going to happen with current Nintendo.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
It's probably closer to around 20 titles a year split across different formats.
Last year was pretty hectic, given they were releasing titles for Wii, DS, Eshop, 3DS and WiiU concurrently.
It's also worth noticing that although there is a steady stream of franchises - so exactly like EA and Activision then - there are also regular new IPs (including IPs that use existing Nintendo characters).
Alcibiades
Member
Are you serious?
Pretty sure they do 5-6 retail games on average and throughout most of the Wii lifetime at least 1 or 2 in new franchises, whether "new" stuff like Wii Fit or "hardcore" stuff like Sin and Punishment 2 (which as new North America). I agree they don't have the same output of EA or Activision, but they do a pretty good, if not exceptional job with their output on Wii.
Xilium
Member
I think the N64 and Gamecube already proved that Nintendo can't rely on their franchise games alone. Those games will simply convince people that buy multiple/all the consoles to finally pick up a Wii U. They're going to need more than that to get the kind of sales they are forecasting.
At the moment, it looks like they are in the same situation as with the Wii when it comes to 3rd party support. (Hopefully) Unlike the Wii, the control scheme shouldn't be an issue when porting. Even if they are forced to provide some level of gamepad functionality (as opposed to developing towards the pro controller), the gamepad is close enough to the offerings of the other systems that this shouldn't prevent 3rd party support.
The other two reasons there would be lack of support are the hardware limitations of the Wii U (which applies to more than just graphical output. Also effects complexity of AI, # of objects that can be on screen at once, dynamic lighting/physics, ect.) and the lack of interest in the console from the core gaming demographic (the ones that purchase the most games).
There's not much they can do about the former except convince 3rd parties that it's worth the effort to downscale their games and release them on the Wii U and that would require them solving the latter problem. In theory, they can rectify the latter problem by convincing core gamers that the gamepad makes the Wii U a valued purchase. As much praise at it gets, Off TV play doesn't seem to be a convincing selling point so they need to come out with some games that really take advantage of the controller in a fun and interesting way that sets their games apart from the competition (if it's just a DS situation and the gamepad screen is just used for maps and menus, they're going to have a hard time selling gamers on that).
I don't think the Wii U is "doomed" (if I'm not mistaken, that's a meme used more by the fans than Nintendo critics) but at the moment, it does look like a repeat of the Gamecube era in which the console only sells to core Nintendo base (which is decently sized). The gamepad is the only other card they have to play besides their franchises at this point and in my opinion, they haven't done a good job convincing people that it adds anything significant to their enjoyment of games (and maybe it doesn't).
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
I feel like there needs to be some perspective here. Nobody was looking at launch sales and saying Nintendo is outright doomed. What the launch does show to me anyway is that the success of the Wii is not going to be duplicated by them and that the Wii U will likely put them back as the 3rd top selling console. I think it will be a overall success for them and I believe it will have a better lineup of games than the Wii ever had but its not leading the pack anymore and let's be honest it never should have been to begin with.
Why should it not had been leading the pack? (full disclosure I don't own a Wii, but do own a Wii U and Vita and Gaming PC) It was what the people wanted, that's why it sold the most consoles of all of them. Rather developers cared or not, or had whatever reason for not making their games for it doesn't change the fact it is what the people chose. When you have to lump your system in with the competition to claim victory as if they were one entity then yes you lost that's how its always been.
As to where the Wii U stands I think it will probably finish first in Japan, second/tied for second in the US and last in Europe. Third parties are free to not port their games but to me it's always been crazy to ignore a 3rd of the gaming pie, and people cheering for it seem to not care or understand the reality most of these companies face. there are a set of posters that only pop into threads that tend to be able to be turned into a negative slant, and pile on with me too comments without offering anything to these conversations. It probably goes all the way back to the Sega/Nintendo days when the "war" was hot and heavy, with Sega becoming "cool" and Nintendo "lame." Many folks grew up in that generation with commercials like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmhtW-pdfd8 and simply never lost their fan colors and so still love when they are able to take any news, no matter what it is and turn it negative.
I do think Nintendo needs to consider simply funding and creating their own "mature" FPS/TPS titles, because that seems to be the only games people seem to crave these days.
shinra-bansho
Member
Regarding the 360 and shortages, one can simply look at the shipments relative to the sell-through estimates. Sell-through was around 1.2M, shipments were reported as 1.5M. That's about 300K in the global retail channel at December 31st 2005, which isn't a lot.
The Wii U launched at $299/$350. So much cheaper.
lolwut. The 360 launched at $299/$399 over 7 years ago. It was a huge leap from the 6th gen. It's produced games like Gears of War and Halo 4. It's playing multiplatform games like Assassin's Creed 3, often better than the Wii U.
The Wii U launched at $299/$350. So much cheaper.
Kacho
Member
I can't believe I missed this. The fact that you think this is the best thing for gamers is absolutely hysterical.
That's true, but you're not including the $50 charge to access the full suite of services. There is an annual fee to get many of the same features the competition offers for free.
UberTag
Member
Is Nintendo offering tens of thousands of matchmaking sessions in Call of Duty for free?
Is Sony offering exclusive timed access to brand new Call of Duty maps for free?
That annual fee hasn't discouraged gamers in North America from making the X360 the top-selling console each month for the past two years.
It's also a valued revenue stream and a way to keep gamers loyal, entrenched and invested in their SERVICE and thus more likely to continue to be Xbox gamers when new hardware arrives.
It may even work to leverage up-front hardware purchase costs in a way that Sony and Nintendo can't possibly match.
Charging for Xbox LIVE is an ADVANTAGE for Microsoft. It has never been a disadvantage. You need to stop spinning it that way.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
It had two games its whole console cycle that were fantastic SMG1 & 2. The Zelda's were a huge disappointment to me as was Smash Bros. The third party was non existant and once the appeal of Wii Sports wore off the waggle brought nothing to the experience. It was a terrible console IMO and only slightly better than the Gcube for me.
we are all doomed.
Who was spinning what now? Certainly not me. I just said that when comparing the cost of consoles, with Microsoft, you have to include the $50 charge for LIVE. Xbox has a higher total cost of ownership than the others.
I wasn't saying anything about the quality or lack thereof with Live.
Steve Youngblood
Member
I know it ruins the joke to have to explain it, but I love to laugh. Can you expound on the high comedy of the situation?
Yes please. Wii U not selling really well is kind of shitty.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
The fact that it's not selling great, or bad, but somehow everyone goes to the latter is kind of funny.
Steve Youngblood
Member
I'm still not getting the joke.
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