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[royalan]

Honestly, it really doesn't matter when the next XBox launches.
It's all on Nintendo.
Price, marketing, lineup.
These are what matters. The competition is pretty much a non-factor right now.

Nintendo needs to set a mass market price, they need to do heavy marketing that can connect with people and they need to have a line up that says "Buy me or you're fucked."

I agree with all of that...except lineup.

Frankly, I don't think Nintendo can craft a lineup appealing to people who aren't already "Day 1" Nintendo fans on their own. Without 3rd parties supporting it with AAA software the best launch the Wii U could hope for would be "Buy me if you like Nintendo games," which won't do much to change their current predicament.

Nintendo really needs to get 3rd parties on board for the Wii U to succeed...something that I think will be a LOT easier for them to do if the next Xbox is also launching in 2012.

If the next Xbox launches close to the PS4, I think it'll be too tempting for 3rd parties to ignore Wii U or repeat what they did with the Wii: flood it with ports and shovelware to shore up their war chests for the second coming of the HD Twins.

 

[BurntPork]

Well, your constant stance switching is annoying, I won't deny that. I mean, even you must realize that by now.

I'll be the first to admit that I get out of hand (I was just banned for spamming after all), but I'm at least consistent with it.

Also, I'm still betting it'll be a high end 5xxx chip.

I've gotten a bit better... Except for right now but there's a reason for it.

High-end would only work if they go for 28nm, and in that case they might as well go for Southern Islands. (Granted, I only consider 5830 and higher to be the "high end" for Evergreen. You might be different.) Unless Nintendo and AMD find some way to use notebook parts, 5750 is the 40nm limit.

I talk to butts myself.

edit: Your butt has bad breath btw.

And a very limited vocab.

My butt tends to get into a shitty mood every few hours.

Spoiler

I'm so sorry. Kill me now.

 

[bgassassin]

I think it will be a GeForce 3Ti 3600 or something.

That's powerful isn't it?

*wags tail*

Clearly it will be two ti-84 calculators scotch-taped together.

 

[blu]

Clearly it will be two ti-84 calculators scotch-taped together.

I hear that super-conductive scotch does wonders. In tape form or otherwise.

 

[BurntPork]

I hear that super-conductive scotch does wonders. In tape form or otherwise.

But it's not exactly reliable. Do we want another 360? Hell, I can't even deal with another PS2!

 

[bgassassin]

I hear that super-conductive scotch does wonders. In tape form or otherwise.

This is Nintendo we're talking about. It will be the dollar store brand.

 

[AceBandage]

This is Nintendo we're talking about. It will be the dollar store brand.

Scatch?

 

[bgassassin]

Scatch?

 

[AceBandage]

It's SUPER Clear!

 

[Saint Gregory]

Why is everyone so certain that the WiiU GPU is based on a specific architecture? AMD could throw us all for a loop and build the GPU with features from several different chips.

 

[BurntPork]

Why is everyone so certain that the WiiU GPU is based on a specific architecture? AMD could throw us all for a loop and build the GPU with features from several different chips.

Still needs a skeleton.

 

[AceBandage]

Well, it'll obviously be a custom chip. But it'll be based on some existing GPU that is on the market, either way.

 

[Saint Gregory]

Still needs a skeleton.

Well, it'll obviously be a custom chip. But it'll be based on some existing GPU that is on the market, either way.

I thought that the Xenos was built with features that ended up in following Ati/AMD chipsets but wasn't directly based on any of them. We know that Nintendo wants the GPU to be more mainstream than the craziness of the Flipper/Hollywood but I would imagine that the the final GPU is so highly customized that it will be difficult to tie it to any one family.

 

[AceBandage]

The Xenos was still based on the X1900 GPU, though.

 

[BurntPork]

I thought that the Xenos was built with features that ended up in following Ati/AMD chipsets but wasn't directly based on any of them. We know that Nintendo wants the GPU to be more mainstream than the craziness of the Flipper/Hollywood but I would imagine that the the final GPU is so highly customized that it will be difficult to tie it to any one family.

MS had Xenos designed like that because it used features not yet on the market. I doubt that Nintendo's aiming for cutting-edge tech, so it'll definitely use an existing architecture.

EDIT: And Ace is right, though there is a lot of debate.

 

[Saint Gregory]

The Xenos was still based on the X1900 GPU, though.

Okay I didn't know that, I thought it was all custom.

MS had Xenos designed like that because it used features not yet on the market. I doubt that Nintendo's aiming for cutting-edge tech, so it'll definitely use an existing architecture.

We really don't know what Nintendo is doing yet. We can make a guess because they're Nintendo but honestly, even though it's weak in comparison to the Vita, the 3DS is more capable than I would have thought a Nintendo handheld would be at this stage. Hell, it actually out does the Wii in some ways so I can't write off the possibility that they'd want a cutting edge GPU in the WiiU. They'd be a hell of a lot more likely to go cheap on the CPU imo.

 

[BurntPork]

If Nintendo were planning on using a GPU with a bunch of features that haven't even hit the market, we'd know by now and devs would be a lot more excited.

 

[AceBandage]

I can't even think of any features that they could add...
I mean, they already have advanced lighting in their Tech demos.
The only thing they really need is Tessellation.

 

[BurntPork]

I can't even think of any features that they could add...
I mean, they already have advanced lighting in their Tech demos.
The only thing they really need is Tessellation.

Well, thinking about things that aren't on the market (meaning beyond DX11) would be pretty difficult for your average consumer.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

If the Wii was the unmitigated success that it looks like on paper then Nintendo wouldn't be in the position that they are now with one dead system

Wii's down from its peak, but still shipped more in the last year than any other Nintendo home console managed in a year.

 

[AceBandage]

Right, but even in Epic's Samaritan Demo, there weren't any giant effects like what the 360 had.

 

[Saint Gregory]

If Nintendo were planning on using a GPU with a bunch of features that haven't even hit the market, we'd know by now and devs would be a lot more excited.

Developers have so far been excited about MS hardware since both Xboxes stayed close to high end PC architecture. Other than that I can't think of any other instances of developers singing the praises of a consoles specs prior to launch. There's usually always something to bitch about.

Wii's down from its peak, but still shipped more in the last year than any other Nintendo home console managed in a year.

The market is much different now though. It would be difficult to call the Wii anything but unhealthy now and it's certainly less healthy than the PS2 was at this point in its lifetime.

They'll probably have a really good holiday season though.

 

[blu]

The Xenos was still based on the X1900 GPU, though.

While C1/Xenos shared some low-level similarities with its predecessors, it's a radical departure from any of those. Just like R300 was a radical departure from its predecessors, even though it was not created in vacuum.

 

[BurntPork]

Right, but even in Epic's Samaritan Demo, there weren't any giant effects like what the 360 had.

My point exactly. This is why Nintendo will stick with an an existing architecture.

 

[JJConrad]

I agree with all of that...except lineup.

Frankly, I don't think Nintendo can craft a lineup appealing to people who aren't already "Day 1" Nintendo fans on their own. Without 3rd parties supporting it from AAA software the best launch the Wii U could hope for would be "Buy me if you like Nintendo games," which won't do much to change their current predicament.

Nintendo really needs to get 3rd parties on board for the Wii U to succeed...something that I think will be a LOT easier for them to do if the next Xbox is also launching in 2012.

If the next Xbox launches close to the PS4, I think it'll be too tempting for 3rd parties to ignore Wii U or repeat what they did with the Wii: flood it with ports and shovelware to shore up their war chests for the second coming of the HD Twins.

I think focusing directly on the so-called hardcore gamer would be a big mistake for Nintendo to do themselves. Changing an image is hard to do, especially doing so without alienating the existing base.

Nintendo’s easiest "in" with the hardcore gamer will be through the professional sports crowd. I think this for 3 reasons: 1) Some of the best and most obvious applications for the tablet are for sports games. 2) There is more potential for cross-over between the casual motion crowd (Nintendo's strength) and the sports crowd. 3) Nintendo already has a number of respected brands that they could use to foster that environment. Obviously, they’d also need EA fully onboard... and they seem to be... but I'd then put extra emphasis on brands like ExciteBike (or Truck, but not Bots), Waverace, and especially 1080. Those games can fit right in between Nintendo's usual staples and the more "hardcore" games and not stand out against either side.

If the Xbox 10 rumors are true, Nintendo should be excited because it does change the narrative. Not only does it make the likelihood of MS making a system that significantly outclasses the Wii U almost zero, it also indicates that MS is playing catch up, and, most importantly, Nintendo is no longer competing against intangible expectations. Nintendo has always fared well head to head particularly at launch, but they can't compete with wild speculations.

Come E3, MS won't be able to hide behind CGI trailers. They'll have to have actual games, but then they'll be faced with the same problem the 360 had, the WiiU has now, and every other console has had... software that clearly demonstrates the console's extra power over older systems. You top that off with the disaster MS has each year when pushing Kinect to their core base... and Nintendo's not in a bad position.

 

[AzaK]

I bet after the shitty financials, 3ds problems, fading Wii that Iwata and Miyamoto come here every week for a good laugh to lift their spirits.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

Well, it'll obviously be a custom chip. But it'll be based on some existing GPU that is on the market, either way.

No, Yamauchi made it from scratch in the basement of his UFO.

 

[AzaK]

Honestly, it really doesn't matter when the next XBox launches.
It's all on Nintendo.
Price, marketing, lineup.
These are what matters. The competition is pretty much a non-factor right now.

Nintendo needs to set a mass market price, they need to do heavy marketing that can connect with people and they need to have a line up that says "Buy me or you're fucked."

Only if they want a repeat of this generation, which they might, but I don't. If the 360 launches around the same time and blows the wii u out of the water (I'm not convinced it will) then I think they will have the same problems with gamers feeling like they have the second class citizen as far as ports go. Maybe not quite as bad as they will at least be more modern but we may see some similarities.

 

[Man God]

Only if they want a repeat of this generation, which they might, but I don't. If the 360 launches around the same time and blows the wii u out of the water (I'm not convinced it will) then I think they will have the same problems with gamers feeling like they have the second class citizen as far as ports go. Maybe not quite as bad as they will at least be more modern but we may see some similarities.

The day of the console exclusive is over so the Wii U has nothing to worry about.

 

[lwilliams3]

Only if they want a repeat of this generation, which they might, but I don't. If the 360 launches around the same time and blows the wii u out of the water (I'm not convinced it will) then I think they will have the same problems with gamers feeling like they have the second class citizen as far as ports go. Maybe not quite as bad as they will at least be more modern but we may see some similarities.

There are several reasons why the Wii U will not have the same problems as the Wii with porting games.

1) The popularity of smartphones and tablets along with 3ds and Vita will attract more game engines that are portable to a larger range of system specs.

2) The Wii U will be the first system coming out for the new generation, while the Wii came out over a year after the 360 was released. This combined with third party developers underestimating the Wii's success resulted to support issues that the Wii wasn't able to recover from. Thanks to the success of the Wii, developers will likely try not to miss the boat again.

3) Unless Microsoft and/or Sony will wait several years, the Wii U should have any GPU feature that the 720/PS4 has. The Wii, being a beefed-up GCN, didn't even have some of the standard GPU features that the 2001 XBox had.

 

[MDX]

3) Unless Microsoft and/or Sony will wait several years, the Wii U should have any GPU feature that the 720/PS4 has. The Wii, being a beefed-up GCN, didn't even have some of the standard GPU features that the 2001 XBox had.

If I were Sony, I would skip this next gen that the WiiU is starting.
Especially if MS is also launching next year or the year after.

Have Nintendo and MS fight it off in a red ocean.
And put the PS3 in the position of the Wii: a mass market priced console.
Which also can play Blu-ray movies, and games in HD.

Use the next 4 years to wait for advancements in tech, and come out with something unique in 2016 a year or two before Nintendo and MS come out with their new systems.

Regarding Nintendo, I have confidence these guys are working on a powerful console. Powerful enough to run 1080p games at 60 fps that at least look as good as Uncharted3. The Xbox360S is already more powerful than its older brother by simply making design changes. The WiiU will be made with new components with efficient design in mind. So by default, its going to distance itself from this gen easy.

And when you add Nintendo's flair for game design and visual aesthetics. Im sorry to say, but Nintendo first party games running at that level will put XboxX or Loop games to shame. Nintendo will just have to make sure to fund their second party developers enough to fill in where third parties fail. Because third parties will fail the WiiU.


.

 

[Majine]

I'm interested to see how Nintendo's games will look in HD. Getting abit tired of the 3 Ninty systems that rougly share the same graphics (GC, Wii, 3DS)

 

[Pancakes R Us]

2) The Wii U will be the first system coming out for the new generation, while the Wii came out over a year after the 360 was released. This combined with third party developers underestimating the Wii's success resulted to support issues that the Wii wasn't able to recover from. Thanks to the success of the Wii, developers will likely try not to miss the boat again.

I wouldn't put my faith in third party developers when it comes to Wii U. I've no doubt we'll be having the same Wii-like conversations in a few years on these boards.

 

[eastmen]

There are several reasons why the Wii U will not have the same problems as the Wii with porting games.

1) The popularity of smartphones and tablets along with 3ds and Vita will attract more game engines that are portable to a larger range of system specs.

The 3ds and vita are below 360/ps3 specs and will most likely just deal with modified 360 engines . The new systems will get new engines , we already see companys moving on to newer engines like frostbite 2 engine.

2) The Wii U will be the first system coming out for the new generation, while the Wii came out over a year after the 360 was released. This combined with third party developers underestimating the Wii's success resulted to support issues that the Wii wasn't able to recover from. Thanks to the success of the Wii, developers will likely try not to miss the boat again.

Nintendo has to prove it can compete with Sony let alone MS in the online space. Next generation there wont be time to half ass it like Sony did at the start of this gen , if your not there on day 1 with all the online features gamers have come to expect this generation then your dead on day 1 .

3) Unless Microsoft and/or Sony will wait several years, the Wii U should have any GPU feature that the 720/PS4 has. The Wii, being a beefed-up GCN, didn't even have some of the standard GPU features that the 2001 XBox had.

Nintendo is bundling a large touch screen device with every system. So not only will nintendo be a year out but they will also have a piece of hardware that doesn't exist for the othre players. Even if Sony includes move and MS includes kinect in the next generation the costs will be much lower than they will be for the tablet controller Nintendo is using. I also doubt with the sucess MS is having selling add in kinnects that they are een going to bundle it. They will most likely just drop it to $100 and expect the 10M + users to just carry them over from the 360 .

If nintendo wants to with a $250 system in 2012 with a touch screen controller. Lets say the touch screen controller is $50 to make . We know the 360 controller is $15. So if MS goes with a $400 system this gen again then the total hardware spend can be up to $375 while Nintendo may only be able to spend $200 (after the cost of the touch controller is factored in ) and a year earlier at $200 vs a year later at $375 can cause a major diffrence in hardware power , esp if nintendo gets caught on the wrong side of a micron process. If nintendo is hitting 32/28nm for launch in 2012 and MS can get on 22nm + $175 in price the diffrence will be vast.

The other thing to remember is that we don't know when MS is releasing dx 12 or when hardware will come out supporting it . Nintendo may end up with gpu's that are just dx 11 capable (although nintendo will be using a open gl variant ) while ms can get the newer hardware. Who knows if the jump between them will be large.

 

[AzaK]

I wouldn't put my faith in third party developers when it comes to Wii U. I've no doubt we'll be having the same Wii-like conversations in a few years on these boards.

I guess it will depend if porting is easy (rumors suggest so) and there's a big enough market given there are 50 million of each competitor's consoles out there that will be the main skus.

 

[Übermatik]

That last page was hilarious. I love you Wii U GAF.

 

[madmackem]

I wouldn't put my faith in third party developers when it comes to Wii U. I've no doubt we'll be having the same Wii-like conversations in a few years on these boards.

They didnt learn there lesson from ds sales that carried over to wii i expect the same kind of support.

 

[Log4Girlz]

I would be happy with a system double the specs in every regard to the HD twins, but I can see how that would be unimpressive to a dev.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

1) The popularity of smartphones and tablets along with 3ds and Vita will attract more game engines that are portable to a larger range of system specs.

In a world where PS3 and X360 seem to be getting more PSP ports than Wii, though, who knows how much this will matter.

 

[MDX]

.

If nintendo wants to with a $250 system in 2012 with a touch screen controller. Lets say the touch screen controller is $50 to make . We know the 360 controller is $15. So if MS goes with a $400 system this gen again then the total hardware spend can be up to $375 while Nintendo may only be able to spend $200 (after the cost of the touch controller is factored in ) and a year earlier at $200 vs a year later at $375 can cause a major diffrence in hardware power , esp if nintendo gets caught on the wrong side of a micron process. If nintendo is hitting 32/28nm for launch in 2012 and MS can get on 22nm + $175 in price the diffrence will be vast.

Except Nintendo is not going to sell the WiiU for $250
Thats crazy.

The 360 and PS3 have both established the paradigm that
powerful consoles sell at: $299 & 399 (360) , $499 and 599 (PS3)
And Nintendo established that an SD console can sell for $249

WiiU is a modern HD system. If it wants to be taken seriously,
it will be priced between $299 and 399.
Probably 350 because Nintendo saw they could have still sold the Wii at $300-350.

What did Nintendo learn from the 3DS?
The price was not the problem!
The 3DS launch broke records.
Sales slowed down because promised features and
Nintendo software were not readily available.

They were forced to reduce the price to gain publisher confidence
who probably were worried about the exclusive deals they had made with them.

So, this is why Nintendo said, they must have a major franchise available for launch.
And thats why, knowing how long it will take them to polish their games, they will delay their launch till the end of 2012 and price their console in the 300 range.

So if MS goes with $399 again, and Nintendo with $350, the differences between the two are negligible. And we know that Nintendo will not include a HD, and MS probably will.
That brings the specs even closer. Unless MS will sell at a loss again, there is not way their new system will blow the WiiU out the water.

 

[AniHawk]

What did Nintendo learn from the 3DS?
The price was not the problem!

...yes it was?

 

[Sirius]

This has been discussed ages ago, especially post E3, yet recent news regarding Retro Studios' involvement in Mario Kart 7 has again spiked up speculation on their secret project for the WiiU.
[quote="]..what they’re working on for Wii’s successor is “a project everyone wants us to do”.[/quote]- PaulGaleNetwork.com

Retro Studios have probably been at work since April, and being one of the first to receive the WiiU SDKs I think it's safe to assume they're deep into development. My hunch is a HD F-Zero; purely from the news that they're working on tracks + asset handling for MK7 along with this WiiU project. Both are in-house developments, and it could mean RS are playing around and experimenting with race mechanics after their platforming venture.

If they are reviving, here are some possible contender franchises and how long it's been since their last console iterations:

F-Zero: 8.33 years [GX - 2003]
StarFox: 6.75 years [SF:Assault - 2005]
Battalion Wars: 4 years [BWII - 2007]
EarthBound: 17 years [1994] (5.5 years since Mother 3 [2006] on GBA)
Ice Climbers: 26 years [1985]
Kid Icarus: 25 years [1986]

Metroid: 1 year [Other M]
Metroid(FPA): 4.2 years [MP3:C]
Donkey Kong(3D Plat.): 12 years [DK64 - 1999]

However unlikely a Retroid is, Kelbaugh hasn't ruled out returning to the franchise in the future.

 

[Exterminieren]

What did Nintendo learn from the 3DS?
The price was not the problem!

I must have imagined the 40% price cut resulting in much higher sales then.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

...yes it was?

I'm a very heavy illicit green smoker and even I'm not sure how he came to that conclusion.

 

[AniHawk]

if it's a project everyone wants retro to do i can only think of a few options:

metroid prime 4. i mean, not everyone wants them to do it, but they've been kinda typecasted as the 3d metroid guys. i think this is unlikely though.

donkey kong country strikes again. a sequel to their most successful game makes slightly more sense. maybe they're interpreting extremely positive sales and fan response, as well as pressure from japan to be something 'everyone' wants them to do.

new franchise. this is what i'd want them to do. i think it'd be wise to do it for several reasons: remove the shackles nintendo japan puts on them; have something totally different (so not just another platformer or another metroid prime) for something around launch; let them prove themselves as a studio that can make something good and original, and maybe expand them a bit more so they focus on old stuff and new stuff, much like rare did. retro in its current state as a company that pumps out one game every three years is pretty sad, especially compared to what it was originally supposed to be.

i don't remember too many people clamoring for them to do much of anything else. maybe a new f-zero, but the new 'i want this back' after kid icarus's revival is star tropics.

 

[Luigiv]

This has been discussed ages ago, especially post E3, yet recent news regarding Retro Studios' involvement in Mario Kart 7 has again spiked up speculation on their secret project for the WiiU.
- PaulGaleNetwork.com

Retro Studios have probably been at work since April, and being one of the first to receive the WiiU SDKs I think it's safe to assume they're deep into development. My hunch is a HD F-Zero; purely from the news that they're working on tracks + asset handling for MK7 along with this WiiU project. Both are in-house developments, and it could mean RS are playing around and experimenting with race mechanics after their platforming venture.

If they are reviving, here are some possible contender franchises and how long it's been since their last console iterations:

F-Zero: 8.33 years [GX - 2003]
StarFox: 6.75 years [SF:Assault - 2005]


Metroid: 1 year [Other M]
Metroid(FPA): 4.2 years [MP3:C]
Donkey Kong Country: 1 year [DKCR]
New IP

However unlikely a Retroid is, Kelbaugh hasn't ruled out returning to the franchise in the future.

Fixed your list. Took out the projects no one (in their right mind) would want Retro Studio to do, Kid Icarus which just isn't going to happen (given Sora is already in charge of reviving the series) and added a couple other projects that could realistically be described as highly asked for.

 

[Log4Girlz]

I thought Retro was doing a new balloon fight.

 

[sphinx]

Retro should REALLY be doing an Eternal Darkness game. If that's not possible, then co-developing some fatal frame with tecmo or something dark and western or maybe a new IP, but something more fitting for their strengths.

Handing donkey kong over to them was a huuuge waste of western DNA.

 

[[Nintex]]

F-Zero would be done by EAD I think. Shikamaru Ninja speculated about that before.

As for Retro Studios, my guesses are Star Fox(maybe working together with Cuthbert), Metroid in HD or Donkey Kong Country Returns 2. Eternal Darkness 2 is probably what Dyack and his skeleton crew are working on so little risk there and it's not something they want to put Retro Studios on. Monster Games is probably working on another racing game maybe has something to do with that partnership with a car manufacturer Nintendo is going to announce.

F-Zero will possibly hit launch as part of their 'reviving old franchises' campaign. New Super Mario Bros. Mii will certainly make the cut along with Wii U Fit, Wii U Sports and all that. Smash Bros. is a 2013 title if Sakurai starts working on it after Kid Icarus is finished. Good Feel's next title will likely hit Wii or 3DS, not sure but it's rumored that they're working on a Yoshi title and that seems possible. Looking at the controller Nintendo will probably develop another Luigi's Mansion game using the controller to 'scan' for the ghosts on-screen.

 

[sphinx]

Eternal Darkness 2 is probably what Dyack and his skeleton crew are working on so little risk there and it's not something they want to put Retro Studios on.

I am aware of the threads about the topic but I'd really like to learn how did you come to the conclusion that there is any real probability that SK is working on ED2.

No way on earth