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Wii U Speculation Thread of Brains Beware: Wii U Re-Unveiling At E3 2012

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blu

Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
The claim I make is that the performance that I expect from the Wii U, pure performance, is what I would expect from a "perfect" '06 generation machine. It will provide nothing more. I don't care that the specific chips did not exist to make an identical unit for the identical price it will come out at. Yes, it is using technology which is far more advanced than the previous generation, just so it can be a step up and not a leap beyond them. Its being used for greater efficiency. The chips for the Ipad didn't exist in '06, but there was technology that could replicate its graphics just fine. The chips for the Wii U did not exist in '06, but I think that level of technology could have been feasibly replicated. I expect nothing more than a beefy, roided up '06 machine (the 360 was '05 sure, but hey the PS3 came out in '06 and could have been more powerful if they made different decisions about its innards).
That same logic above applies to ps720 - nothing you'll see on those will be impossible on a 'perfect' 2010 system, cost and form factors be damned.

ps: only that your 'perfect' 2006 system is more like a 'perfect 2008-2009' system.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
Six years later is considered early? Huh.

Whoops, good point. Meaning, earlier than the competition. I mean, why not hold off a year and continue creating Wii games, which don't require anywhere near the budgets of HD content? They believe they need a head start on the competition because ultimately, they are in the same waters.
 

BurntPork

Banned
Neither did any of the parts of the Ipad. I guess that performance was impossible to see back then. No way a game as good looking as Infinity Blade was possible. The chips didn't exist then. Nope.

*sigh* Are you seriously going to use an argument that stupid? Are you going to say that Vita should have come out in 2005 then!?! And DS should have come out in 1995?

The most powerful single GPU AMD had in 2006 was comparable to the 360's GPU. Wii U's is at least 50% more powerful than that, and could be as high as 5x that.
 

DCKing

Member
If what you're saying in the prev post about Xenon 360 w/ ~60-70w TDP for GPU is correct, then how much gap could there really be between a theoretical WiiU GPU and whatever Xbox/PS4 releases?
Well, Microsoft and Sony will have to use 28nm like you said. If they don't want their next consoles to be hot expensive powerhouses like the 360 and PS3, they are limited to a certain power usage as well as a certain chip size (this has to do with production cost and motherboard complexity). Whatever happens, I think the PS4 and Xbox Next GPU can never exceed a power use of 80-90W and never exceed ~250mm^2 in chip size (I made these numbers up based on the design of the 360 and PS3). I think it's likely they're actually aiming for 50-60W power usage and a 175mm^2 chip, which would be comparable to what was in first iteration of the PS3 and 360. My expectation for the Wii U is 30-35W on ~120mm^2 by the way.

We'll see what they can do with 28nm chips when AMD releases their next generation of 28nm graphics cards the coming weeks. My expectation now, which is based on the constraints above and the leaked specs of one AMD's chips, is that the absolute best we're going to see from Sony and Microsoft are GPUs with ~1500 shaders, but more likely closer to a 1000 shaders. This would equate to a chip that has about 2-3 times the capacity of the chip in the Wii U devkit. For comparison, the chip in the Wii U devkit is about 2-3 times the capacity of what's in the 360. Granted, there maybe some tricks MS and Sony have up their sleeve, but this is what I can say with the facts I have now.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
*sigh* Are you seriously going to use an argument that stupid? Are you going to say that Vita should have come out in 2005 then!?! And DS should have come out in 1995?

The most powerful single GPU AMD had in 2006 was comparable to the 360's GPU. Wii U's is at least 50% more powerful than that, and could be as high as 5x that.

I'm expecting 50%, which would place it within reasonable reach of an '06 machine. Its not a 2012 machine, its not a 2010 machine in terms of performance. The chips, the die sizes are all 2012 of course, but to achieve modest performance.

The 3DS could have been possible years ago. The Vita blows it away. The Wii U could have been possible years ago in terms of performance excluding the controller, I'm talking about sheer performance. This is a reasonable assumption of its power. Now, if you believe it will be 5x the power then of course it won't be. I'm keeping my expectations low so I may be surprised later.
 

Wolfie5

Member
As crazy as it may seem, a surprise "The console's in stores tomorrow!" isn't completely impossible. The oft-quoted Saturn debacle was largely a last-minute decision to get out ahead of the PlayStation, which meant there were barely any games available for months after launch, so the early release was seen as a failure. Nintendo, however, seem to have been targeting a mid-2012 launch for quite a while, so shouldn't have a problem making sure there's software there on and after launch day.

I have a hard time believing Nintendo would not show anything until E3 and than suddenly go: "...and it´s out tomorrow".
If Nintendo intends on releasing right after E3, I would expect a Nintendo event before E3, maybe in May. There would at least be some hint/reveal at GDC or at their FY closing comment(which is available to public in April?).
 

Anth0ny

Member
However, on May 11, 1995, at the first Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3), Kalinske announced that the "Saturnday" date was a ruse and that the system was being released nationwide by four select retailers (Toys "R" Us, Babbage's, Software Etc. and Electronics Boutique) immediately. It appeared that Sega had a real opportunity to take a commanding 4-month lead in the 32-bit race by beating the PlayStation to the market.

GAF would explode if Nintendo pulled a Saturn :lol

Not happening. It will launch November 18 2012.
 

Xun

Member
I'm expecting 50%, which would place it within reasonable reach of an '06 machine. Its not a 2012 machine, its not a 2010 machine in terms of performance. The chips, the die sizes are all 2012 of course, but to achieve modest performance.

The 3DS could have been possible years ago. The Vita blows it away. The Wii U could have been possible years ago in terms of performance excluding the controller, I'm talking about sheer performance. This is a reasonable assumption of its power. Now, if you believe it will be 5x the power then of course it won't be. I'm keeping my expectations low so I may be surprised later.
No one knows.

People seem to forget Nintendo had competitive systems both times before the Wii.
 
Whoops, good point. Meaning, earlier than the competition. I mean, why not hold off a year and continue creating Wii games, which don't require anywhere near the budgets of HD content? They believe they need a head start on the competition because ultimately, they are in the same waters.

It`s a normal lifetime for nintendo consoles. 4-6 years. Wii isn´t in a very good condition for a marketleader. Why should they wait if the console is ready for mid 2012? They won´t throw away the invested money. WiiU is in development for years. If you know the specs let us know...
 

Log4Girlz

Member
It`s a normal lifetime for nintendo consoles. 4-6 years. Wii isn´t in a very good condition for a marketleader. Why should they wait if the console is ready for mid 2012? They won´t throw away the invested money. WiiU is in development for years. If you know the specs let us know...

I think 2012 was picked specifically to launch ahead of their competition. This is just my opinion. I do not work for Nintendo, nor have I tried to imply that I do.
 

FyreWulff

Member
I'm expecting 50%, which would place it within reasonable reach of an '06 machine. Its not a 2012 machine, its not a 2010 machine in terms of performance. The chips, the die sizes are all 2012 of course, but to achieve modest performance.

The 3DS could have been possible years ago. The Vita blows it away. The Wii U could have been possible years ago in terms of performance excluding the controller, I'm talking about sheer performance. This is a reasonable assumption of its power. Now, if you believe it will be 5x the power then of course it won't be. I'm keeping my expectations low so I may be surprised later.

Possible? Yes. At the price and form factor? No.
 
With regard to backward compatibility, I was just wandering how we'll be able to import saves data file from Wii, at least for some games such as Brawl is not possible as for now as far, as I know.
 

muu

Member
Well, Microsoft and Sony will have to use 28nm like you said. If they don't want their next consoles to be hot expensive powerhouses like the 360 and PS3, they are limited to a certain power usage as well as a certain chip size (this has to do with production cost and motherboard complexity). Whatever happens, I think the PS4 and Xbox Next GPU can never exceed a power use of 80-90W and never exceed ~250mm^2 in chip size (I made these numbers up based on the design of the 360 and PS3). I think it's likely they're actually aiming for 50-60W power usage and a 175mm^2 chip, which would be comparable to what was in first iteration of the PS3 and 360. My expectation for the Wii U is 30-35W on ~120mm^2 by the way.

We'll see what they can do with 28nm chips when AMD releases their next generation of 28nm graphics cards the coming weeks. My expectation now, which is based on the constraints above and the leaked specs of one AMD's chips, is that the absolute best we're going to see from Sony and Microsoft are GPUs with ~1500 shaders, but more likely closer to a 1000 shaders. This would equate to a chip that has about 2-3 times the capacity of the chip in the Wii U devkit. For comparison, the chip in the Wii U devkit is about 2-3 times the capacity of what's in the 360. Granted, there maybe some tricks MS and Sony have up their sleeve, but this is what I can say with the facts I have now.

That sounds in line w/ what I was thinking. And if it unfolds that way I can see WiiU games that're marginal improvements on PS3/360 counterparts (albeit running at 1080P/60fps or both), but the same occurring once the PS4/XB releases -- as in, baseline is drawn at WiiU levels. Third parties couldn't possibly be as stupid as this gen to completely ditch a console for what'll end up becoming by then another half-gen leap. And ignoring the snobbery of 'hardcore' and techno-geeks I doubt the general public will give two shits about the differences either.
 

DCKing

Member
I'm expecting 50%, which would place it within reasonable reach of an '06 machine. Its not a 2012 machine, its not a 2010 machine in terms of performance. The chips, the die sizes are all 2012 of course, but to achieve modest performance.

The 3DS could have been possible years ago. The Vita blows it away. The Wii U could have been possible years ago in terms of performance excluding the controller, I'm talking about sheer performance. This is a reasonable assumption of its power. Now, if you believe it will be 5x the power then of course it won't be. I'm keeping my expectations low so I may be surprised later.
You're really not getting the point. It doesn't matter if something is theoretically possible years ago. A computer with the floating point performance of the 360 was possible in 1993 (the TOP500 leading supercomputer did so, at least). But it's not about theoretical possibilities, it's about what's practically possible. If you can't pack up your hardware in a small box and sell it for a reasonable price, then it isn't possible. That's what it's all about.
That sounds in line w/ what I was thinking. And if it unfolds that way I can see WiiU games that're marginal improvements on PS3/360 counterparts (albeit running at 1080P/60fps or both), but the same occurring once the PS4/XB releases -- as in, baseline is drawn at WiiU levels. Third parties couldn't possibly be as stupid as this gen to completely ditch a console for what'll end up becoming by then another half-gen leap. And ignoring the snobbery of 'hardcore' and techno-geeks I doubt the general public will give two shits about the differences either.
I agree with that. One thing to consider is memory though. If the Wii U has 1 GB of memory, and the PS4 and Xbox Next have 4 GB, then that could still lead to significant problems. So let's hope that doesn't happen, or that Nintendo equips the Wii U with 2 GB.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
You're really not getting the point. It doesn't matter if something is theoretically possible years ago. A computer with the floating point performance of the 360 was possible in 1993 (the TOP500 leading supercomputer did so, at least). But it's not about theoretical possibilities, it's about what's practically possible. If you can't pack your hardware up in a small box and sell it, then it isn't possible. That's what it's all about.

I agree with your last sentence, but I disagree that in '06 something like what I'm expecting from the Wii U couldn't be placed in a box the size of the PS3 and sold for a reasonable price. Is it using more advanced '11 tech to get that performance in a teensy box and have it run cool? Yes. That's not possible back then. But even that is really unimportant, its an unimportant example on my part, it was an illustration of my personal expectations. Let's say its actually an '08 or '09 part, that's still a 3 or 4 years old part in terms of performance.

If we run with the idea that its anything above 50% more powerful than the X360, which it could very well be, then again, I would be wrong. I'm not saying you are wrong. I am not trying to convert people and say "OMG its only going to be 50% more powerful boy are you guys in for a disappointment-love and kisses Luckyman". I am merely trying to illustrate my expectations. I would love to be proven wrong. I won't be eating crow, I would be happy. I'm just trying to lower my expectations so I can be surprised!
 

DCKing

Member
I agree with your last sentence, but I disagree that in '06 something like what I'm expecting from the Wii U couldn't be placed in a box the size of the PS3 and sold for a reasonable price.
Well, I'd invite you to read my post on the previous page again. A console as powerful as the Wii U devkit in 2006 would be possible in a PC tower-sized case with a 450W power supply. A console as powerful as the Wii U devkit the size of the PS3 would have been theoretically possible starting 2010.
If we run with the idea that its anything above 50% more powerful than the X360, which it could very well be, then again, I would be wrong. I'm not saying you are wrong. I am not trying to convert people and say "OMG its only going to be 50% more powerful boy are you guys in for a disappointment-love and kisses Luckyman". I am merely trying to illustrate my expectations. I would love to be proven wrong. I won't be eating crow, I would be happy. I'm just trying to lower my expectations so I can be surprised!
If you want to lower your expectations, that's fine. There's a good chance I'll be disappointed as well. If you look at what lherre (and bgassassin's confirmation) tells us and the current state of technology however, you're not basing your expectations on the facts. Although I don't like having these rather high expectations, I can't ignore the facts :)
 

Log4Girlz

Member
Well, I'd invite you to read my post on the previous page again. A console as powerful as the Wii U devkit in 2006 would be possible in a PC tower-sized case with a 450W power supply. A console as powerful as the Wii U devkit the size of the PS3 would have been theoretically possible starting 2010.
If you want to lower your expectations, that's fine. There's a good chance I'll be disappointed as well. If you look at what lherre (and bgassassin's confirmation) tells us and the current state of technology however, you're not basing your expectations on the facts. Although I don't like having these rather high expectations, I can't ignore the facts :)

We'll agree to disagree on the first point, but again, that's not important. Also, not everyone is in agreement with the specs. I have heard the "50% greater" rumor and I'm irrationally sticking to it just so I'm surprised later. It is irrational! No arguing there. If bgassassin's expectations for the console are correct, I'd be super happy, but I don't want to work myself into a lather just yet.
 

Thraktor

Member
No it wouldn't. 75% of GAF would just be "Nintendo's dead!" while the other 25% is on the defensive.

Why is everyone assuming that a launch immediately after the reveal would be a bad thing? Apple do it all the time, and last I checked they're doing all right these days.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
Why is everyone assuming that a launch immediately after the reveal would be a bad thing? Apple do it all the time, and last I checked they're doing all right these days.

Well, I don't think releasing mid-year would be a good idea, don't think it worked out too well for the 3DS.
 
It's important to release not too far after the official unveiling, but also not too early. I think "It's IN STORES RIIIIIGHT NOWWWWwW" is a bit ridiculous, but releasing a month later should be fine, assuming you have the marketing all ready to roar.
 

blu

Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
If we run with the idea that its anything above 50% more powerful than the X360, which it could very well be, then again, I would be wrong. I'm not saying you are wrong. I am not trying to convert people and say "OMG its only going to be 50% more powerful boy are you guys in for a disappointment-love and kisses Luckyman". I am merely trying to illustrate my expectations. I would love to be proven wrong. I won't be eating crow, I would be happy. I'm just trying to lower my expectations so I can be surprised!
I've been doing graphics sw for decades now. Where most people see beautiful games I see smoke and mirrors. I was nothing short of flabbergasted by what Retro did on the wii in the form of Prime Corruption - nothing in the specs prepared me for that. Don't worry, you'll be surprised.
 

FyreWulff

Member
why is nintendo so insistent on having a small console? Make it about 360 slim size

1) Japan limited space in homes

2) Smaller console = more consoles can fit in the same shelf space = happy retailers


In a hype-driven industry, "it's already in stores RIGHT NOW" doesn't work.

Especially in the internet age when the jig would be up from people taking photos of the consoles in transit. Not even Apple really bothers with this anymore even though they have their own stores.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
I've been doing graphics sw for decades now. Where most people see beautiful games I see smoke and mirrors. I was nothing short of flabbergasted by what Retro did on the wii in the form of Prime Corruption - nothing in the specs prepared me for that. Don't worry, you'll be surprised.

I've seen your posts for years here (almost since I started). Without a doubt you are one of my favorites especially in threads like this. I do not doubt what you say, in fact it makes me giddy...and I keep reverting to my fanboy dreams of what a Nintendo game can look like. Ooof.
 

Thraktor

Member
Well, I don't think releasing mid-year would be a good idea, don't think it worked out too well for the 3DS.

Again, you're conflating the timing of the launch with the more important factors; hardware price and availability of games. When the 3DS launched it was more expensive than people were willing to pay and didn't have any big games to draw people in. Similarly, when the Saturn launched it was more expensive than the PlayStation was going to be, and didn't have any big games to draw people in. Of course, there the similarities end, as the 3DS dropped in price and Nintendo released those big games, and is selling pretty damn well now.
 

DCKing

Member
I've been doing graphics sw for decades now. Where most people see beautiful games I see smoke and mirrors. I was nothing short of flabbergasted by what Retro did on the wii in the form of Prime Corruption - nothing in the specs prepared me for that. Don't worry, you'll be surprised.
Although I'd prefer Retro starting to work on new IP, Star Fox of Star Tropics, Metroid Prime U will be glorious. Damn you, expectations.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
Again, you're conflating the timing of the launch with the more important factors; hardware price and availability of games. When the 3DS launched it was more expensive than people were willing to pay and didn't have any big games to draw people in. Similarly, when the Saturn launched it was more expensive than the PlayStation was going to be, and didn't have any big games to draw people in. Of course, there the similarities end, as the 3DS dropped in price and Nintendo released those big games, and is selling pretty damn well now.

Well, I think the timing had just as much to do with the failure. I think it would have done much better even at the price during the holidays. But of course that's debatable and I can see your reasoning. I think its simply safer to release at the holidays (beginning to mid-november) so that hype can build up quickly that the system is a must have gift. I think releasing mid-year would make it lose momentum.
 
Well, I think the timing had just as much to do with the failure. I think it would have done much better even at the price during the holidays. But of course that's debatable and I can see your reasoning. I think its simply safer to release at the holidays (beginning to mid-november) so that hype can build up quickly that the system is a must have gift. I think releasing mid-year would make it lose momentum.

The timing for the 3DS was actually perfect.
It allowed for a good userbase to be built up for the big holiday titles.
And it's still doing amazingly in the holidays. I don't see how launching early in the year is a bad thing. You still get that holiday rush.

I wonder whether they can match GameCube Metroid Prime on the 3DS. That would be like magic as well.



Probably not as good in the texture department (but who knows!), but the actual graphical fidelity of the game would be mind blowing.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
I wonder whether they can match GameCube Metroid Prime on the 3DS. That would be like magic as well.

I never finished Prime, but I did play bits of it. There's the chance they can...and add more shaders and effects to boot. But then again it looks like most 3DS games look far less complex than Wii games, but with better shaders, masking that fact. Could be because the games are early. :(
 

Thraktor

Member
It's important to release not too far after the official unveiling, but also not too early. I think "It's IN STORES RIIIIIGHT NOWWWWwW" is a bit ridiculous, but releasing a month later should be fine, assuming you have the marketing all ready to roar.

Yeah, a month is a lot more realistic, but "It's IN STORES RIIIIIGHT NOWWWWwW" would be pretty entertaining, you have to admit!
 

idwl

Member
your comments above made me watch some corruption videos on youtube, I bought the game when it came out and stopped when I had to do that fetch quest.
Anyway while watching it made me think the game would be much more satisfying if she actually had guns that shot bullets rather than those plasma/laser things.
 
your comments above made me watch some corruption videos on youtube, I bought the game when it came out and stopped when I had to do that fetch quest.
Anyway while watching it made me think the game would be much more satisfying if she actually had guns that shot bullets rather than those plasma/laser things.

...
No.

Why would you even suggest this?
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
your comments above made me watch some corruption videos on youtube, I bought the game when it came out and stopped when I had to do that fetch quest.
Anyway while watching it made me think the game would be much more satisfying if she actually had guns that shot bullets rather than those plasma/laser things.

LOL

This is what drives me absolutely nuts about this generation of gaming.
 

[Nintex]

Member
Why is everyone assuming that a launch immediately after the reveal would be a bad thing? Apple do it all the time, and last I checked they're doing all right these days.

Because Nintendo is not Apple and the gaming industry is not the same. Nintendo used to be the master at pre-release hypes with Wii, Twilight Princess and Smash Bros. Brawl. . I still don't understand why they changed this strategy. I get why titles like Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit might require a different approach than say the next Mario or Zelda. But in order for a console to do big numbers at launch it needs to be one straight hypetrain from announcement to release with as little dissapointment as possible. Nintendo will have a 12 month gap between Wii U showings, that doesn't make any sense at all. In fact they've only shown it at one venue, E3 2011. Japan and Europe haven't even had a chance to go hands on with the machine. So they cancel the showings at GC, offer nothing at TGS and suddenly bring out the E3 builds for CES... that's just.... well, crazy. I have feeling that there maybe some sort of disagreement between NoA and NCL and NoA is forced to bring out the E3 builds at CES because NCL won't give them any new material.
 
Nothing in the world beats the first Metroid Prime on Gamecube. That shit was a magical experience for me. The serenity mixed with the unknown of being on that planet, pitch perfect music and great atmosphere, just non stop exploration with threats every and now then popping out. Good problem solving too.

Please nintendo replicate this immediately, and do not add guns that shoot bullets :|
 

Thraktor

Member
Well, I think the timing had just as much to do with the failure. I think it would have done much better even at the price during the holidays. But of course that's debatable and I can see your reasoning. I think its simply safer to release at the holidays (beginning to mid-november) so that hype can build up quickly that the system is a must have gift. I think releasing mid-year would make it lose momentum.

Well, if you were to say that it would have had a better first two months if those first months had been November and December, then I'd have to agree with you. But I don't know if the timing of the launch has any real effect over the lifetime of a console.

I never finished Prime, but I did play bits of it. There's the chance they can...and add more shaders and effects to boot. But then again it looks like most 3DS games look far less complex than Wii games, but with better shaders, masking that fact. Could be because the games are early. :(

It's probably largely because we're looking at early 3DS games. Developers have been working on Gamecube/Wii tech for over a decade now, so they (internal Nintendo studios especially) have really learned how to make the most of the hardware. Super Mario 3D Land looks wonderful, and I'd expect more complex games from Nintendo in particular to come down the line. It's actually times like these that I wish Amusement Vision still existed to make an F-Zero game for the 3DS. Sigh.
 

[Nintex]

Member
Oh and lets be honest here, Nintendo has given Sony and Microsoft 12 months to bolt a touchscreen on a controller in response to Wii U.
 
[Nintex];33594478 said:
Oh and lets be honest here, Nintendo has given Sony and Microsoft 12 months to bolt a touchscreen on a controller in response to Wii U.

Which would be great for Nintendo.
Developers can't complain about a non standard controller and MS/Sony will just look like horrible copy cats (see, Move failure).
 

Log4Girlz

Member
Nothing in the world beats the first Metroid Prime on Gamecube. That shit was a magical experience for me. The serenity mixed with the unknown of being on that planet, pitch perfect music and great atmosphere, just non stop exploration with threats every and now then popping out. Good problem solving too.

Please nintendo replicate this immediately, and do not add guns that shoot bullets :|

Man remember that fake "Metroid" pic that people were trying to pass off as a Wii U screen? The lighting, the colors...made me longful. Again, I didn't play the whole game, but really really appreciated how beautiful it was. Oh and I will buy it someday, I just have a huge backlog and wasn't sure which one to buy. Stand alone GC game or get the trilogy on Wii.
 
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