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Wii U US November Sales Estimated at 149K by Pachter

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So you believe that anything less than 1.5 million would be a failure? That's seems like an awfully high number.

You talk about people hoping that Mario would "save" the Wii U with 1.5 million in console sales. Which people? Can you name them? Or when you say "people" do you mean "people I invented"?

Nintendo's target for the fiscal year was nine million units. Do you want to illustrate for me a reality where they sell less than 1.5 million units in November and still manage that? I'm legitimately curious as to how you think that scenario plays out.

That was not a target they set for console warriors, pundits, or analysts. That was a target they set for investors. That was what the people who pay to run this business needed to see for this enterprise to have been considered a success. Those are the numbers that everyone has been waiting for, and every time a game comes out and fails to notch the measuring stick any closer to that unobtainable goal the onus moves on to the next one, with Mario ever-waiting at the back of the pack to pick up the slack.

Every time it's been, "Of course the Wii-U isn't selling, none of the system selling games are out. Look at how much Mario sold on the Wii. Look at how much Mario Kart sold on the Wii. They're going to do the same thing on the Wii-U, those millions of people are going to buy the console to play them."

Where are the millions of sales? Or are we going to play this game again, and expect the next release to "bump" the sales up to two million in a month to make up for all these months of missed targets and distinct underperformance? Or better yet, are we just going to pretend like the goals and expectations never existed, and that the piss-poor status quo of Wii-U month-to-month sales only needs to improve relative to itself without being informed in any way by external factors?

Better yet, why don't you define for me what you think would qualify as "turning around" the Wii-U's fortunes? Do you think 800k would have done it? 800k, in November, riding the release of the company mascot and supposedly most anticipated game yet released for the system? Would that have brought the third parties back, improved the attach rate enough to bring the anemic sales of the existing backlog out of the dumps, and provided enough economics of scale to reduce the manufacturing costs of the console? Would selling 800k in what's routinely the highest sales month of the year, in what is habitually the territory where Nintendo sells the most consoles, indicate any potential to hit 9,000,000 units sold a year as a sustainable goal?

They had the stock on hand. They had their "system selling franchise" on deck. The demand for new consoles is literally at a record high. When else are they ever going to sell enough to come anywhere close to meeting their financial goals if not in November?

Yes, anyone who was harping about how Mario (or Mario Kart, or Donkey Kong, or Wii Fit U, or Smash...) is going to "save" the Wii-U is, for all intents and purposes, saying they expect those games to move millions of units to make up for the absolutely awful sales of the system during the drought. Yes, that was an entirely unrealistic and absurd expectation. Why do you think so many of us were saying that it was a pipe dream, and that it's time to throw the goddamn "chalkboard" in the garbage?
 
Why is this an article on any website, and why is there a thread about it? This guy is literally guessing. He literally has no basis of fact in his statement.

Edit: holy shit, the post directly above mine. Why do some people write such huge personal tirades on public forums?
 
Sucks for N, as expensive as the gamepad is, I'm sure they can't drop the price that much lower.

Could be a total abandonment.

Would love a Nintendo Vita-level handheld with TV-out.

Do you really want to play Vita games on your TV? I mean people are bitching about Wii U graphics now.

I think the unified software platform (two boxes, same games) could work. But you're right about their development output. It's only going to diminish from here. So it's either that or the hybrid.

I don't think the tech is quite there yet for the hybrid but like I said in one of the 10230323 Nintendoom threads, I have come around on the idea. Like I said above, no one wants to play uprezzed Vita level games on their 50in TVs. So at worst, we are talking HD screen handheld with Wii U level tech (which is once again ironic since this is apparently not good enough right now...) with good battery life and for under 250. Is that possible now? Will that even be possible in a few years? I don't think so. But then the unified approach begs the question why bother with both at all?

man I gotta leave this thread...it makes me feel sad.
 
Holy shit! XDDD Man read my post history in the DK threads, that was a parody post I intentionally made to call out all the shitty arguments that I read about DK. :p

Oh, OK, didn't get that at all, we're good. Sadly, your parody post wasn't that far off from some supposedly serious posts that rail against 2D platfomers.
 
peace vibes from the success of DS and Wii and the relative turn around of 3DS from complete failure to moderate success.

But although I am smart enough to know saying "Nintendo is doomed" is shortsighted considering history, I am also aware that we are about to enter a stage in this industry that is also without precedent - an era in which gaming dedicated handhelds are fast becoming irrelevant (ask Y2Kev for an explanation on why 3DS is not doing near as impressive as some think), and Nintendo cannot release a relevant bit of console hardware either.

What will happen if they start to become unable to make a successful handheld as well? Because that time IS coming, the trends are incredibly clear.


Is already happening and Nintendo is not taking the necessary steps to compete or fight against it. Yeah Pokemon will sell a fuckton, MH is king on Japan, but 2 games in a new wave of mobile domination is not going to stop it. They had to take those steps way before. Now the portable market is dying slowly but inexorably.

I don't know why people look at the 3DS, think is a success and can't see all the clear signs behind that "moderate" success.


I mean, we've already established that Nintendo's forecasts are retarded, so why do they matter now

They matter to investors...

The fact is you can't tell to the people that invest to your company that your next product is gonna sell way less that your last product and that software sales/licensing is gonna be considerably lower and expect they look at it with good eyes.

Nintendo market should expand not shrink....and is shrinking all over the place. That's the real problem...
 
Why is this an article on any website, and why is there a thread about it? This guy is literally guessing. He literally has no basis of fact in his statement.

Edit: holy shit, the post directly above mine. Why do some people write such huge personal tirades on public forums?
Pach isn't totally guessing.

But even so, look at his past WiiU predictions. Pretty damn good.
 
Sony is a Japanese company, yet Kutaragi was demoted shortly after the PS3 launch.

Well, Iwata is gonna have to dig a lot (and I mean A LOT) until he makes a hole as big as the one Kutagari did to Sony's wallet. Had he done half of that he would be out a long time ago, that is for sure.

On topic: wouldn't it be wiser to wait and get the real numbers before going all cray?
 
300 was enough for me to bite, I actually had to pay around 400 bucks for the Nintendoland bundle because I don't live in the USA and was the best price I could find(it's usually around 500 bucks here).

I get why it's unappealing, I fully blame the name and marketing of the console, it's amusing how much they fucked up with that. But the games are there, and it sucks that a lot ignore them for whatever reason.

I mean if they knocked it down to under £200 they would have my attention, the problem is you have to convince people to buy a console that isn't really "next gen" and has incredibly poor third party support not just in titles released but how they run in retrospect to other last gen consoles. Now with next gen and PS4 being at such a great price point and then next year with Steam boxes, I dunno, the future just seems incredibly bleak for the big N. Here's hoping they pull it back; somehow, even if I'm still pissed about Bayonetta 2 being exclusive :P.
 
Well, Iwata is gonna have to dig a lot (and I mean A LOT) until he makes a hole as big as Kutagari did to Sony's wallet. Had he done half of that he would be out a long time ago, that is for sure.

On topic: wouldn't it be wiser to wait and get the real numbers before going all cray?
It would be, but as I said many people on GAF just wish to maintain the "Nintendoisdoomed!" status quo.

Which is frankly becoming incredibly tiresome.
 
Better yet, why don't you define for me what you think would qualify as "turning around" the Wii-U's fortunes? Do you think 800k would have done it? 800k, in November, riding the release of the company mascot and supposedly most anticipated game yet released for the system? Would that have brought the third parties back, improved the attach rate enough to bring the anemic sales of the existing backlog out of the dumps, and provided enough economics of scale to reduce the manufacturing costs of the console? Would selling 800k in what's routinely the highest sales month of the year, in what is habitually the territory where Nintendo sells the most consoles, indicate any potential to hit 9,000,000 units sold a year as a sustainable goal?

Nintendo:


424K (GameCube, November 2002)
751K (GameCube, November 2003)
350K (GameCube, November 2004)
272K (GameCube, November 2005)

Let's see what nearly 800k did for the Gamecube in its second november. Oh
 
Now, perhaps someone can share sales numbers to clarify, but it appears to me that Wii U is practically dead in Japan and Europe. Seeing as NA is now Nintendo's sole remaining source of real income for this console...I think anything less than half a million is disastrous.

I can't remember what quarter but at one point Nintendo had -10,000 sales for Europe and the rest of the world. Yes that is NEGATIVE sales from retailers who had dropped the system and had a return clause in their contract with Nintendo. I can't think of any other time a system had negative sales.
 
It would be, but as I said many people on GAF just wish to maintain the "Nintendoisdoomed!" status quo.

Which is frankly becoming incredibly tiresome.

What are the odds that the numbers are significantly different? I mean, really? Do you guys think there is a chance in hell that Pachter is so off that the real numbers are like 800K or a million? Even if he's off and it's 200 or even 300K, that's still really fucking bad. That is still a YOY decrease in the busiest shopping month of the season. Whether he's off by 20K or 100K, the narrative is the same: The Wii U had a terrible November.
 
I was under the impression that their handheld business, while healthy in Japan, is following a contracting trajectory WW. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

Let me give you some highlights

$250
DS/3DS confusion
Launch window: Steel Diver, PilotWings, Nintendogs, OoT 3D, Starfox 3D
2012 Nov/Dec gun: Paper Mario: Sticker Star

One would hope a properly managed platform should perform better than 3DS.
 
I can't remember what quarter but at one point Nintendo had -10,000 sales for Europe and the rest of the world. Yes that is NEGATIVE sales from retailers who had dropped the system and had a return clause in their contract with Nintendo. I can't think of any other time a system had negative sales.
-20,000 in fact. Last quarter.
 
Do you really want to play Vita games on your TV? I mean people are bitching about Wii U graphics now.

If the price is right, I think consumers will accept lower graphics. It's a value proposition.

I don't think the tech is quite there yet for the hybrid but like I said in one of the 10230323 Nintendoom threads, I have come around on the idea. Like I said above, no one wants to play uprezzed Vita level games on their 50in TVs. So at worst, we are talking HD screen handheld with Wii U level tech (which is once again ironic since this is apparently not good enough right now...) with good battery life and for under 250. Is that possible now? Will that even be possible in a few years? I don't think so. But then the unified approach begs the question why bother with both at all?

man I gotta leave this thread...it makes me feel sad.

Well, as Logz said, a huge problem is just Nintendo's ability to pump out games. If they make the right moves and embrace a unified platform of some sort, it's possible that could lead to a creative renaissance or them. So there's reason to be optimistic, but they'd probably need new leadership for such a move.
 
That... that is not good, not at all. This is probably the worst news for the Wii U yet, and that is saying A LOT!

God what a mess. It just keeps setting new records, it won't stop, will it? :(

EDIT: I realize the numbers aren't confirmed just yet, but even if they increase by 200% it will not make that much of a difference. 150K, 350K, 550K, etc. are all bad numbers. The fact that it is in the range of the former numbers is just... just... god!
 
That... that is not good, not at all. This is probably the worst news for the Wii U yet, and that is saying A LOT!

God what a mess. It just keeps setting new records, it won't stop, will it? :(

Not to latch on to this post for any particular reason, but I do think it behooves us to remember that this is just Pachter's estimate. We should probably wait until Thursday before we start drawing any conclusions.
 
If the price is right, I think consumers will accept lower graphics. It's a value proposition.



Well, as Logz said, a huge problem is just Nintendo's ability to pump out games. If they make the right moves and embrace a unified platform of some sort, it's possible that could lead to a creative renaissance or them. So there's reason to be optimistic, but they'd probably need new leadership for such a move.

So if the Wii U was 200...you think people would accept it then?

Also for all the peeps calling for Iwata's head, what makes you think they'd replace him with someone who would make better moves? My biggest fear is that they replace him with someone who will go through with their shortsighted moves. Like their big shakeup will end in Nintendo trying to create a phone or some shit.
 
Not to latch on to this post for any particular reason, but I do think it behooves us to remember that this is just Pachter's estimate. We should probably wait until Thursday before we start drawing any conclusions.

Read my edit. Also, are there any compelling arguments why Pachter's numbers can not be trusted? I realize his prediction of the company's moves are ridiculous but I don't know anything about his sales analysis, so what's your take GAF? How reliable is this number?
 
I mean if they knocked it down to under £200 they would have my attention, the problem is you have to convince people to buy a console that isn't really "next gen" and has incredibly poor third party support not just in titles released but how they run in retrospect to other last gen consoles. Now with next gen and PS4 being at such a great price point and then next year with Steam boxes, I dunno, the future just seems incredibly bleak for the big N. Here's hoping they pull it back; somehow, even if I'm still pissed about Bayonetta 2 being exclusive :P.

Er..you could get the Premium Wii U for £199 with Super Mario Bros/Luigi U only a few days ago. You can get the Premium with Lego City or Nintendoland now for £199 in Sainsburys...

...you can get a Premium WiiU with Nintendoland and your choice of 2 other games(the best being Zombiu,Sonic Racing and Rayman Legends ) for £230 at Amazon.
 
Is already happening and Nintendo is not taking the necessary steps to compete or fight against it. Yeah Pokemon will sell a fuckton, MH is king on Japan, but 2 games in a new wave of mobile domination is not going to stop it. They had to take those steps way before. Now the portable market is dying slowly but inexorably.

I don't know why people look at the 3DS, think is a success and can't see all the clear signs behind that "moderate" success.

It seems in a way it's a mirror of how unprepared they were for the HD generation. They dropped Wii support so unceremoniously (which, by the way, was also poor strategy), and yet in all that time failed to adequately prepare themselves and their employees for the transition to the HD gen. For all the time they spent with Wii, they didn't realize they were falling even further behind than the rest of the industry at developing for that HD standard. For all their war chest, they did not make the proper investment, poorly chose which games to release when strategically (and continue to choose poorly judging by their future release lineup) and have arrived at an unsettling level of lacking of good new ideas with the Wii U. They're simply being quite predictable with the Wii U properties, which for Nintendo is not a good look at all.

I love Super Mario 3D World and Pikmin 3 and Wonderful 101 (which would be niche no matter the platform, let's not fool ourselves), but Nintendo needs ideas that expand behind these horizons. They went with a system that could potentially speak to hardcore gamers given its controller is very friendly to traditional games, and yet do not realize the massive genre gaps in their lineup which third parties clearly soon won't even be filling. Nintendo's "X" is the most flexible they seem to be so far, but unfortunately it's too little, too late, AND it's not enough. They need to announce many such big and bold ideas, try to fill in holes in their lineup, try to make something Nintendo may not necessarily be comfortable with. Nintendo is one of the most talented devs on Earth, they could be doing so much more!
 
And how much money will Apple give Nintendo for them to do that?

You know they can come to a deal. Apple gets a small percent of Nintendo's game sales, and they split the royalties on third party game sales. Nintendo gets a small to mid-size cut of the hardware sales, Apple keeps the rest.

The Apple Nintendo. An iPhone the size of a Galaxy phone but with extra room for buttons and shit. A bit more expensive than an iPhone, but it plays games just like a dedicated handheld with buttons, sticks, a d-pad, whatever. Make a bigger more expensive version with a much bigger screen, iPad sized. Both can stream through a regular Apple TV, or maybe instead you can use them as controllers for a dedicated Apple Nintendo home console.

I don't know, I'm sure this specific idea is dumb, but this is off the absolute top of my head. I'm sure a bunch of millionaires in a board room with actual tech knowledge can make something happen.
 
It would be, but as I said many people on GAF just wish to maintain the "Nintendoisdoomed!" status quo.

Which is frankly becoming incredibly tiresome.

This is reality, dude. Nintendo is in some deep shit here. I'm sorry reality is becoming incredibly tiresome for you, but blaming others for wanting to discuss reality changes nothing.
 
Do people really think Nintendo might bail on this console. I want to buy one for Mario but don't want it to be a waste

Just talk and speculation for right now. What people are guessing is that Nintendo rushes to get a new console out soon given the dire state of the Wii U, but even then we are looking at fall 2015/2016 at the earliest. (basically giving Wii U a shelf life of 3/4 years if it holds out)
 
Do people really think Nintendo might bail on this console. I want to buy one for Mario but don't want it to be a waste

I would be very, very skeptical of some scenario wherein Nintendo comes out in early 2014 and says they're shutting down production. The more likely scenario is just that third party support remains weak/non-existent, and on the first party front we only get the already announced titles plus a few others that may be in production but not revealed. And even then, I think that's a worst case scenario.
 
Please consider that I am going to buy a Wii U tonight when I say this but some of you have to start accepting that the Wii U is a dead platform.

Even if Pachter is really, really off, it will still be yet another bad month in a long string of bad months.

That's called a pattern.
 
Wii U LTD (Shipments to Europe + Australia + Other)

0.90 million - as of December 31st, 2012
1.01 million - as of March 31st, 2013
1.02 million - as of June 31st, 2013
1.01 million - as of September 31st, 2013

do you have the sell-through data? curious to see that.
 
So, what happens now? Clearly Nintendo can't just whip up a new console, and they've surely put a lot of resources into their 2013 software pipeline, but then what? Mario Kart/Smash are the last of thoroughbreds in their stable. Do they continue to invest in Wii U beyond 2014?

Scary stuff to think about in Kyoto.
 
EmCee laid out several valid theories in another thread, I had wondered if you saw them

Anihawk if these numbers are even close to being right, what would you do about the Wii U

oh i mean in the realistic sense, like nintendo is preparing to drop the system or nintendo is about to launch a whole new rebranding campaign.

if the system did 149k in november, then we can look at it maybe selling another million in the states overall, without a price drop. at that point i'd look at ways to keep the wii u going without hurting consumer confidence too much. make sure some of the 2014 software hits, and push back other software to 2015.

whatever is currently planned for late 2015 would be turned into launch and launch window titles. the idea isn't to stop the wii u cold like sega did with the saturn in 1998 (they left the market for a good 18 months before returning with the dreamcast), but to have more of a gentle transition. get smash bros. out for wii u. get zelda out for wii u. get x out for wii u. when the new system hits, make 'definitive versions' of those titles and offload some of that work to trusted partners like monster, next-level, and grezzo. at this point the system would probably be only supported by nintendo games, but market that it has a ton of nintendo games- highlight the virtual console, highlight the exclusive titles, etc.
 
I don't think the tech is quite there yet for the hybrid but like I said in one of the 10230323 Nintendoom threads, I have come around on the idea. Like I said above, no one wants to play uprezzed Vita level games on their 50in TVs. So at worst, we are talking HD screen handheld with Wii U level tech (which is once again ironic since this is apparently not good enough right now...) with good battery life and for under 250. Is that possible now? Will that even be possible in a few years? I don't think so. But then the unified approach begs the question why bother with both at all?

man I gotta leave this thread...it makes me feel sad.

Missed this post.

What I envision is, two separate platforms. The home console will have decent innards (somewhat more powerful than Wii U) and the handheld will be its own system. I think it could be possible that they use very similar architectures (with the Wii U using more juice from a wall socket naturally). There should be a unified API shared among the two systems and while you develop the handheld game, there should be all kinds of hooks in the code to allow some nicer effects to run when the game is being played on the home console. This will take the game beyond just an "uprezzing" and allow you to immediately have a larger, more varied library for the home console, as its usually the system that suffers the most from droughts caused by heat waves evaporating all the water developers require to keep hydrated and develop games.

Yes the console will look alien compared to PS4 and XB1, but not so different from an Iphone 6 or whatever. Nintendo has already stated they don't like competing, well they are not going ot want to go head to head with the new HD twins. So there, that's an elegant way to

A. Come out with a weird as fuck system, which is what Nintendo loves to fucking do
B. Having it be cheap (that console shouldn't be more than $250)
C. Have a guaranteed line-up of decent looking games
D. Keep two SOMEWHAT separate revenue streams

You would still be making dedicated console games, which conceivably people would buy, but supplement them with dramatically better looking handheld games. Again, this shit has to be fucking cheap, it wouldn't work any other way.

I would buy that system. I don't have room in my pocket for anything other than my phone but dammit, I still want those Nintendo console AND handheld games...so what must I spend more to get the handheld.
 
Wii U LTD (Shipments to Europe + Australia + Other)

0.90 million - as of December 31st, 2012
1.01 million - as of March 31st, 2013
1.02 million - as of June 31st, 2013
1.01 million - as of September 31st, 2013
So it was -10k?

I was going off these numbers. I assume they were revised later in the thread.

Either way, the units were travelling in the wrong direction.
 
If the price is right, I think consumers will accept lower graphics. It's a value proposition.

However, in that regard, the Wii U is competing with two well-established systems with lower graphics capabilities, both cheaper than the Wii U and with far more extensive catalogs.

The only things that really matter in the end are the games. Nintendo's only way to make a suitable value proposition is to justify the existence of the controller, and ensure an ongoing supply of both first and third party titles. Unfortunately, Nintendo hasn't done either. They've got first party titles coming out (but barely), but third party titles are nowhere to be found (other than a token game or two from Ubisoft), and other than the launch titles and a few isolated cases since, Nintendo hasn't done a good job of selling the controller to people.

Nintendo can drop the price low enough to pick up extra sales from value-oriented consumers, but the price they'd have to reach ($149, I'm guessing) would be brutal on their bottom line. If they drop the controller, they're just an overpriced console that's graphically on par with the previous gen, but with fewer games. Nintendo really has pinned themselves into a corner with the Wii U and they pretty much have no options to get out. I'm guessing they ride the next couple years out, then come out with something a little more competitive. At the same time, they need to get the third parties to come back and release games on whatever ends up being the Wii U successor.
 
Do people really think Nintendo might bail on this console. I want to buy one for Mario but don't want it to be a waste

As noted previously in the thread, Nintendo owns a considerable number of first party studios and couldn't possibly shift them all to 3DS development, especially after shoring up their headcounts for HD development. They will eventually want to pull them for work on a successor console (or whatever their next move ends up being), but assuming that's still a few years out there would be no sense in having them sitting around doing nothing.

They should be continuing to develop Wii-U games for another year or two at minimum. You just shouldn't expect even the token show of third party support the system has had, or for that many games that haven't already been announced to start development. (You'd probably be looking at one more title per team beyond the ones already in the pipe.)
 
Missed this post.

What I envision is, two separate platforms. The home console will have decent innards (somewhat more powerful than Wii U) and the handheld will be its own system. I think it could be possible that they use very similar architectures (with the Wii U using more juice from a wall socket naturally). There should be a unified API shared among the two systems and while you develop the handheld game, there should be all kinds of hooks in the code to allow some nicer effects to run when the game is being played on the home console. This will take the game beyond just an "uprezzing" and allow you to immediately have a larger, more varied library for the home console, as its usually the system that suffers the most from droughts caused by heat waves evaporating all the water developers require to keep hydrated and develop games.

Yes the console will look alien compared to PS4 and XB1, but not so different from an Iphone 6 or whatever. Nintendo has already stated they don't like competing, well they are not going ot want to go head to head with the new HD twins. So there, that's an elegant way to

A. Come out with a weird as fuck system, which is what Nintendo loves to fucking do
B. Having it be cheap (that console shouldn't be more than $250)
C. Have a guaranteed line-up of decent looking games
D. Keep two SOMEWHAT separate revenue streams

You would still be making dedicated console games, which conceivably people would buy, but supplement them with dramatically better looking handheld games. Again, this shit has to be fucking cheap, it wouldn't work any other way.

I would buy that system. I don't have room in my pocket for anything other than my phone but dammit, I still want those Nintendo console AND handheld games...so what must I spend more to get the handheld.

That seems like a decent idea but I can't see Nintendo doing that at all.

Do people really think Nintendo might bail on this console. I want to buy one for Mario but don't want it to be a waste

They are not going to bail out.
 
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