PS4 Pro #s are a bit underwhelming, and I think will only slowly grow (as a % of the overall Playstation sales). Unlikely to ever surpass base PS4 monthly sales, though I don't know if that was ever the goal. However, I think Microsoft is going to have an even harder time positioning the Scorpio because of a few things:
1. Price. It will cost more to produce than the PS4pro. And will likely be priced higher.
- at 14nm fabrication, a 40% increase in GPU performance means a larger GPU within the APU
- at 14nm fabrication, and in crease in CPU performance and in all likelihood a different product will increase the CPU size within the APU
- Backwards compatibility almost ensures ESRAM is required on the chip which will also take up room on the APU
- UHD Blu-ray will cost an estimated $15 more
- Power supply will almost certainly be larger than the PS4 Pro
- Cooling solutions will also need to be more robust to cool the larger and hotter APU
- The case will be physically bigger and more expensive
- Scorpio will have less economies of scale trough common parts. ie. will likely have different RAM than the 1S where as the PS4pro runs the same main RAM. etc. Scorpio will need to be more bespoke (expensive).
2. They've just marketed a new more powerful 4K HDR Xbox
- There are going to be plenty of consumers who just bought a new 1S thinking it's the newest xbox, and feel let down by another new xbox, despite the E3 reveal of scorpio
- The 1S was marketed with 4K and HDR and made to feel like a 4K console. Many consumers who bought the 1S will feel they already have a 4K xbox, and many who didn't might see them both as 4K and buy the 1S instead.
3. Diminishing returns on power
- The more powerful consoles get, the less important and differentiating power is. We're past the point where power transforms what is possible. Are today's games any more ambitious than they were last generation? GTAV is still one of the most technologically ambitious games available, and it was possible on PS3 and 360.
- Visually games are good enough. Look at PS4 to PS4 pro, a double in GPU performance. Many struggle to see the difference, and it's almost impossible to advertise. What is Scorpio going to do with 40% more GPU performance? It's not enough to go from 30fps to 60fps without a fidelity loss. It's not enough to go from checkardboard 4K to native 4K without a fidelity loss. Cross-platform games with unlocked frame rates or unlocked resolutions might see some benefit. Otherwise, it will be hard to discern the difference for anyone outside of Digital Foundry.
4. It won't be launching with highly marketable software
- It won't have exclusive software, and despite marketing efforts will have to be sold by the same software as the xbox 1/1s
- 1st Party - Crackdown might be the only big first party game at launch. Will it look better than anything else? Forza will look amazing sure, but racing games have looked amazing all generation.
- 3rd Party - Sony has locked up a lot of 3rd party marketing deals for the fall including: Destiny 2, Call of Duty 2017, Red Dead Redemption 2, and Star Wars Battlefront 2. Microsoft could have really used RDR or Destiny 2 this year. Assassin's Creed 2017 will go to Microsoft but that's not a series that generates the same type of hype/sales as some of the others.
hone
