frAntic_Frog
Member
i would like to see what sony has up their sleaves come E3.......once the PS3 development starts to wind down, I like to see more sony first party move over to Vita (or at least start side-projects/port jobs) for the vita
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Worst Case Scenario for the Vita
- Thread starter AppleBlade
- Start date
i would like to see what sony has up their sleaves come E3.......once the PS3 development starts to wind down, I like to see more sony first party move over to Vita (or at least start side-projects/port jobs) for the vita
Q
qizah
Unconfirmed Member
Worst case scenario is probably what you're seeing now - and maybe a lack of strong software, with few releases here and there.
I don't think Sony's going to discontinue it though.
I don't think Sony's going to discontinue it though.
chickdigger802
Banned
outunderthestars
Banned
Interesting question: It looks like the PSP will end up around 75 million systems sold.
Where do you see the Vita ending up?
Me, I think around 25 million when it is all said and done.
Where do you see the Vita ending up?
Me, I think around 25 million when it is all said and done.
Did anyone think the PSP would end up selling that much either? especially after DS Lite + Nintendogs and Brain Training Craze? Granted DS LTD sales dwarfs PSP, but how much did the GBA end up selling LTD?
outunderthestars
Banned
I originally thought the PSP would carve out about 60 million. That said, I thought it would have a much healthier lifespan in the U.S. but piracy destroyed that.
frAntic_Frog
Member
i have no doubt that the All Stars Battle Royal game will eventually end up on Vita in some shape or form....ALL of the major PS3 franchises have ended up on Vita or have upcoming Vita titles in the pipeline (Resistance, Killzone, LBP, UNcharted, Wipeout, Motorstorm, etc etc etc)
bigtroyjon
Member
GBA did 81.5 million
Worst case Vita does 20-25 million over the next 5 years with no high quality western software support after 2013 outside of Sony ports like MLB.
I suppose we will have to hope that doesn't happen.
BassForever
Member
Vita gets hacked the way PSP did meaning people buy the console for piracy reasons and kill the already small software support the system has
Rodney McKay
Member
Haha, that's pretty much exactly what I was thinking. I don't have a Vita, but just thinking what Loco Roco would look like on that gorgeous screen makes me want to get one. My PSP-2000 has HORRIBLE ghosting on it's screen, so graphically all my games look like shit in motion.
There are a lot of PSP games I still want to play, but not on my current PSP. I'd also be OK if the Vita just became a PS2 port machine. I'd love for the Sly Cooper collection to come to it along with the Jak+daxter, Rachet+Clank, Timesplitters, SSX, etc.
DangerousDave
Member
I don't understand the point of the thread.
The worst case scenario for Vita/PS3/360/Wii/3DS is Sony/Microsoft/Nintendo announcing that Vita/PS3/360/Wii/3DS console is discontinued and that all the unreleased games for that console are canceled.
This is the worse scenario on any console.
I mean... we already have a thread discussing if Vita is dying: http://neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=468084
The worst case scenario for Vita/PS3/360/Wii/3DS is Sony/Microsoft/Nintendo announcing that Vita/PS3/360/Wii/3DS console is discontinued and that all the unreleased games for that console are canceled.
This is the worse scenario on any console.
I mean... we already have a thread discussing if Vita is dying: http://neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=468084
I supported Dreamcast and Vita. At least I'm not part of the problem.
Although I agree we should at least wait till E3, I already can see a "Vita chalkboard" situation in the future: wait until CoD/BioShock/Gran Turismo/Secret Vita Game, etc.
IMO this is the make or break year for the platform. Sony needs to have some killer apps ready for the holidays and ideally cheaper hardware.
Ninja Scooter
Member
The difference is that Sony has set up the Vita as a portable PS3, that's their selling point. Play console games on the go. That means those games are going to take up a lot more resources and manpower than a 3DS game does compared to a full-fledged console AAA title. They would spread themselves too thin.
...gameboy micro is basically a reiteration of the game boy..while vita is a whole new system. Your comparison makes no sense...
Oh totally. I've had a PSP Go for over a year with like 30 games on it and I never really played it, but I'm playing PSP games on Vita all the time. Just a much better experience, mostly due to the superior analog control and screen.
As soon as they get the rest of the PSP/mini lineup going PSone classics, I will immediately buy a 32gb card.
I wouldn't say they're setting it up exclusively as that. It's definitely one of their selling points, but they've actually been clear that they're trying to steer clear from having this be a PSP repeat (having essentially a portable version of their console). They have their work cut out for them, but Sony's top shelf devs could totally work on Vita games without a huge budget or dev time.
bigtroyjon
Member
That's not the worst case scenario because that has no chance of happening.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
A lot of the PSP sales were hardware and not software. I do wonder hoe much it would have sold with no hacking.
Rodney McKay
Member
Oooo, I didn't even think about how the better analog sticks would be for PSP games. *drool*
one more thing to the OP..i see no reason to worry. It will evolve into its own..its a great little system that packs a huge punch. I suspect it will be a huge hit next xmas season.
Also with cool stuff like PS Suite...it will also boost interest around the more hardcore gaming community which will give birth to new idea's to the bigger dev's to produce new exciting gems.
Also with cool stuff like PS Suite...it will also boost interest around the more hardcore gaming community which will give birth to new idea's to the bigger dev's to produce new exciting gems.
chickdigger802
Banned
Glad everyone is staying on topic.
Worst worst case scenario, is psp support pulled. no devs want to make games for it.
Gameloft jumps in.
my pretty clone machine.
Worst worst case scenario, is psp support pulled. no devs want to make games for it.
Gameloft jumps in.
my pretty clone machine.
LowEndTorque
Member
Fixed it for ya.
Yeah I mean who would put a local multi-player focused game on a handheld? Total madness.
famousmortimer
Banned
The question is kinda silly.... what's the worst case scenario for any system ever? Failure.
Gaf does love a good shit on the vita thread though.
Gaf does love a good shit on the vita thread though.
CadetMahoney
Member
Unfortunately we only have forum members and no concrete numbers on how bad the Vita is doing from now on. If you don't believe these forum members you get berated for not believing them "buh-but they got number correct before!". Might aswell be the chartzzz forums lol.
Yeah, I mean, that's a hypothetical worst case scenario, but aren't we talking more realistic worst case scenarios? PSP support dropped - unlikely to happen. No devs making games - Sony will at least make games. Gameloft - again, unlikely. Of course, I personally think it's too early to even consider what a possible worst case scenario would be.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Worst case has already been avoided. Sony isn't taking a massive loss on the hardware, and it won't bleed the company dry of valuable financial resources. It may not be hugely profitable, but it at least won't be a huge financial drain either. Look at how badly the 3DS cost Nintendo early on, it basically ended up costing them their first yearly loss since their initial IPO. They took drastic measures to improve its situation, but at a definite cost. And it's paid off in Japan, but elsewhere? Not so much.
What we're seeing now is the 'expected case', and depending on what they show in the coming weeks will determine if that trajectory will continue.
What we're seeing now is the 'expected case', and depending on what they show in the coming weeks will determine if that trajectory will continue.
DangerousDave
Member
You can't know, maybe Sony will bankrupt tomorrow, and a chinese company buy Sony and decide to cancel Vita and reestructure the gaming division only in the things that give benefits in a short term.
We don't have the info to know what is the most probable future of Vita... but we even have less info about what is the worse thing that can happen, because for this we'll need to work with assumptions that we can't rate with a percentage of possibility.
chickdigger802
Banned
with how anal sony is about exploits and what not... psp support dropped is more likely than less likely in my books.
And Gameloft games have appeared on xperia play, and I wouldn't be surprised if they don't port some of their phone games to playstation suite.
No devs making games is not realistic I guess (gameloft is a dev ;P)
Baconsammy
Banned
I agree with the folks that think we're seeing the worst case scenario right now. Personally I'm kinda happy with my Vita since all I really wanted was a new Lumines, and I got it. Although it's probably my least favorite Lumines title (and that includes 360 and PS3). Was really disappointed in Hot Shots Golf, but impressed by how good Rayman Origins is. I just dont see much of anything interesting coming out in the future.
IrishNinja
Member
"oh god. ... could somebody please find
wondermega
Member
Such a mess. But it really is kinda irresponsible to post thread(s) like this so early into the system's life, and butted-up so closely to E3. At the same time, people's fears are warranted because of history (Sony's previous portable history - between PSP and Go, and then of course early NDS and then early 3DS history).
Anyway it's fine to freak out a little and ponder, but I don't think anyone's gonna get real chills until post-show and then post-summer, one way or the other. Sony will have to deliver something at least competent for the coming holiday, even I'll suspect that!
I'll stand by what I've said, I will always like and appreciate Sony as a game company but they really do not understand what it takes to make a dominating handheld, and they never will. I also stand by the thought that they really need to start focusing some heavy-duty time and money to develop the definitive handheld FPS because that is the one thing they can likely deliver that will make people drool in a way that only their hardware configuration can nail. It's gonna be expensive and a bit gut-wrenching, and it will take a few generations of releases to get the kinks out, but no one (3DS, iOS) can compete with them on that front (and they are so reluctant to do this because maybe they're a Japanese company? Is that too simplified of a reason?) If MS was doing handhelds, there'd be a few iterations of portable Halo by now.
Anyway it's fine to freak out a little and ponder, but I don't think anyone's gonna get real chills until post-show and then post-summer, one way or the other. Sony will have to deliver something at least competent for the coming holiday, even I'll suspect that!
I'll stand by what I've said, I will always like and appreciate Sony as a game company but they really do not understand what it takes to make a dominating handheld, and they never will. I also stand by the thought that they really need to start focusing some heavy-duty time and money to develop the definitive handheld FPS because that is the one thing they can likely deliver that will make people drool in a way that only their hardware configuration can nail. It's gonna be expensive and a bit gut-wrenching, and it will take a few generations of releases to get the kinks out, but no one (3DS, iOS) can compete with them on that front (and they are so reluctant to do this because maybe they're a Japanese company? Is that too simplified of a reason?) If MS was doing handhelds, there'd be a few iterations of portable Halo by now.
Costcosaurus
Banned
Most likely this is the case and if not then the Vita could be digging its own grave. We already have some noteworthy titles coming out soon for the Vita but we definitely need a bigger list.
bigtroyjon
Member
Actually we can give a percentage of probability to things, and that percentage is so small it's not worth talking about.
Sony is in no danger of going bankrupt and they are in no danger of getting bought buy a Chinese company.
If you want to just make up absurd scenarios then there is no point in discussion, since we might as well just say there is some miniscule chance that the Earth gets hit by a meteor tomorrow and we all die.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
worst case scenario a nuke hits sony's headquarters and every single store that sells a psvita and another nuke for each of the psvitas that are out there
Little Green Yoda
Member
I thought the currency conversion rates and the Wii completely falling off the cliff were much bigger factors to their yearly loss?
Worst case scenario would be the Vita literally turning into the PSP2, with the piracy issues and all.
but without a MH-type savior
The system is sill going to get supported no matter what...and as long as Sony is still going to be selling the system, some publisher will release games on it...including Sony.
Either way like a few others have said, it will be the ultimate psp machine....along with PSX machine....and eventually I'm sure PS2 Machine.....along with PSN & PSN Minis Machine. You might see all those SNK games with online support like Samurai Shodown, along with Sega genesis games.
There is alot Sony is holding back, I'm sure purposely because they want Vita software to sell first and foremost.....if for some reason that doesn't happen they'll open the floodgates sooner for the stuff i mentioned, hopefully before piracy.
Either way like a few others have said, it will be the ultimate psp machine....along with PSX machine....and eventually I'm sure PS2 Machine.....along with PSN & PSN Minis Machine. You might see all those SNK games with online support like Samurai Shodown, along with Sega genesis games.
There is alot Sony is holding back, I'm sure purposely because they want Vita software to sell first and foremost.....if for some reason that doesn't happen they'll open the floodgates sooner for the stuff i mentioned, hopefully before piracy.
Wait, what? Am I crazy or isn't it pretty much generally accepted that Sony must be taking huge losses on each system? I have no idea how they could not be, considering the tech and specs of the thing.
If... you're just saying this based on the cost of its "parts" then that's not exactly the most accurate representation of the actual cost per unit, when you account for the many other pieces of the puzzle. I mean, the fact that even the 3DS is being sold at a loss for $170 should be evidence enough that the Vita must cost Sony quite a bit more than $250 per system, right?
Pretty sure that most people are taking that information from Kaz, who always made it clear that they would be aiming for profitablity as early as possible for the Vita. Thats partly why they designed it the way they did.
I don't know how it could be generally accepted that they are taking a "huge" loss on anything, when no one but Sony knows how much they sunk into the Vita. I can't imagine the R&D for Vita is massive.
Auto_aim1
MeisaMcCaffrey
Right now, Sony needs to announce a bunch of new games and try to gain a foothold in the Japanese market. I believe it is doing decently in the US, but a slight price drop will keep the sales steady for a few years and will give enough time for Sony to build its library. One thing is for certain, though.
The current price of the Vita is too high for mass market penetration and unless it has some killer software we will continue to see sales like these. Also, I believe it's too early to be thinking about all these things. I'm gonna wait till E3.
The current price of the Vita is too high for mass market penetration and unless it has some killer software we will continue to see sales like these. Also, I believe it's too early to be thinking about all these things. I'm gonna wait till E3.
I actually like move
Worst case scenario is that it sells 0 more vitas worldwide starting tomorrow.
A likely worst case scenario is that no more major sony franchises get on it for 2 or 3 years, playstation suite is a colossal failure, devs abandon the vita market for iphone development, the vita gets hacked and software sales plummet, and sales chug along at 1/10th of what the 3DS does.
Acrylic7
Member
The worst case scenario for Sony would be Apple interring the video game industry with a handheld.
Or Nintendo getting Digital Distribution right. (every game at $20 for download). Or Pokemon
Anyway it Sony's fault. I think they went in the wrong direction with the Vita. I would seriously like to attend a meeting to observe how this all went down. The Vita (should be called psp2) should have easily been a money making success story for Sony from the very beginning. All we asked fro was improvement on the original psp. Not this out of left field device.
Sony just doesn't understand what customers and their fan-base desire.
Or Nintendo getting Digital Distribution right. (every game at $20 for download). Or Pokemon
Anyway it Sony's fault. I think they went in the wrong direction with the Vita. I would seriously like to attend a meeting to observe how this all went down. The Vita (should be called psp2) should have easily been a money making success story for Sony from the very beginning. All we asked fro was improvement on the original psp. Not this out of left field device.
Sony just doesn't understand what customers and their fan-base desire.
bigtroyjon
Member
Uhh, this already happened years ago.
Worst Case Scenario is that at Christmas after not selling for 9 months, Sony offers a 10 Free games download with every Vita purchase just like the PSPGo.
After which it still doesn't sell and Sony shuts down the Vita just like the Go.
It continues to sell the PSPE1000 however with budget titles like Hannah Montana and My First Pony.
When these sell like Hot Cakes, the PS3 does the same, it reduces the console price to $99, takes out bluray, and puts out titles like We Sing and Baby Sitting Mama...
There is no PS4 announcement as PS3 is going to last another 15 years.
After which it still doesn't sell and Sony shuts down the Vita just like the Go.
It continues to sell the PSPE1000 however with budget titles like Hannah Montana and My First Pony.
When these sell like Hot Cakes, the PS3 does the same, it reduces the console price to $99, takes out bluray, and puts out titles like We Sing and Baby Sitting Mama...
There is no PS4 announcement as PS3 is going to last another 15 years.