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Xbox 360 - looks like BIG NEWS forthcoming

Onix said:
How is this plan any better releasing with 2 SKU's from the beginning? At launch, its going to be mostly hardcore gamers that pick up the console. The mainstream audience won't be buying the thing for at least a year or so. If at that point, there is a cheaper version (sans HDD) available - that's the one they'll pick up.

You'll now have a split market, with the non-HDD version likely being the majority sold in a couple of years.

It's better to start out with one SKU, because that way there will be no possibility of Xbox 360s sitting on the shelf because it's not the one that's in stronger demand. Since there's no way to predict just how popular each SKU would be, it's entirely likely that you'd have leftover inventory after the all-important holiday season. Because hype and branding is even more important than the revenue generated by sales during the launch stage, it's not worth the risk of trying to guess how to apportion two different SKUs. In a worst case, you might have half your inventory sitting on shelves through Christmas unsold (as I said previously), and that would probably permanently stunt the adoption of the 360. While it would also open the door to Sony releasing their console later, it would be because the 360 branding was hurt badly enough that it ceased to be an entirely "hot, hard to find item" before it was a week old.


Mrbob said:
Would you consider $399 'affordable'?

Because Peter Moore said the Xbox 360 would be affordable while the PS3 will not. Now, if MS thinks 399 is affordable they think the PS3 will be priced at 499. MS can try their scenario, but if Sony comes in with the PS2 at 299 or 349 MS is fucked. In the eyes of the consumers MS just gouged them by dropping 100 bucks in 6 months, hdd or no hdd.

It's totally worthwhile to discuss whether $399 is too much money for a mainstream console launch in this day and age, especially given Moore's comments. The problem is that you really can't trust Moore, because pricing is probably the one area where they can paint the PS3 in a bad light. In every other regard, the PS3's distant and mysterious presence looming only serves as a reason or an excuse to "wait on" buying a 360. I can't imagine a single argument MS could make other than to say that the PS3 will be prohibitively expensive. (This is especially true, given Kutaragi's recent remarks that the PS3 will initially be out of reach of the average household.)

I think the comment is more about softening the blow that the PS3's own burgeoning hype machine than it is in revealing an actual price point.

To answer your question directly: In an age where the most popular Walkman device runs up to $399, where the PSP is $249, where the TVs in the era that MS is claiming the 360 was designed for cost thousands--yes, one could say the Xbox 360 priced at $399 would be affordable.

Will the average person buy it at that price? Only if they've got a lot of money to blow on a Christmas present. Will hardcore gamers buy it? Probably, if the hype and software is there. I've personally been predicting an unimpressive 360 launch ever since E3, so I'm not going to say it'll sell out, but if you're a marketer then you're probably pretty comfortable with the $399 price point. It's a heavy duty machine with a lot of horsepower and multimedia capabilities (machines with similar multimedia capability run more than $399 standalone, anyway). If you go through the whole feature list, explain there's $1200 in computer in there, then the price should reflect the value of the system and not detract from it. If it's priced too low, it might even be seen as a toy or cheap by the same videophiles that Microsoft needs to court, since the thing is primarily an improvement only for people with HDTVs.

The problem is that if you start out low, you can't mark up. And if you're bundling the hard drive from day one, you can't drop the drive without dropping the price further. That puts Microsoft in the same (or worse) position as when they were launching the original Xbox, which was intended to bleed throughout the entire generation to make inroads into market share in anticipation of profiting off the next. It's money hat time.

And splitting the userbase isn't the same thing as it was when the Sega 32x came out. In the case of the 360, by all reports, the system is still perfectly functional without the hard drive, and all (but a handful) of the games will play fine without it. Therefore, the SKU splitting anytime down the road and some users not immediately having a hard drive doesn't make a difference. The base hardware is identical.

meelk said:
Juice is out of his mind.
$299, 20 gig hard drive, there is no doubt.
MS knows this is its ONE big year to sell systems, they will NOT attach a $349-399 price point to this system.
When you are wrong, and VERY wrong juice, we will know who to go directly to and laugh at.

Heh, my sanity aside, I think your post begs my stating that I'm only indicating what I would be doing if I was the corporation in question in this particular landscape and situation. These predictions are based on what I believe is the best thing for Microsoft to do in the longterm. If they don't do them, then the decision will likely mean really really weak or negative profits even at the end of the generation. If they do what you say, fail to make a profit in 5 years (and yet intended to make a profit, not release another bleeder for livingroom-share sake) laugh at them and not me.

Even if my prediction is wrong, it doesn't by any stretch determine my own intelligence or the validity of my argument. This isn't some kind of magic show, where I have some insider information. I'm not Johnny Nighttrain. I'm a guy who knows a fair amount about the gaming industry on paper, and I'm giving my own 2 cent on paper analysis. If Microsoft decides differently, it just means we'll never see whether my plan would have worked well.

And while you're right that it's their one year to get a ton of systems out, your shotgun conclusion that MS will move fewer consoles because of this isn't founded. However, my argument wouldn't decrease the sales by a single console, in all likelihood. As SOON AS the console is no longer sold out everywhere, MS should release the HDD-less version at $299. No one who wouldn't pay $399 for the system is going to give that much of a shit over not having a packed-in hard drive. Especially when they know that can buy a peripheral later that's even bigger than the one packed in with the more expensive bundle.

mrklaw said:
yeah. They can always take a bigger loss early on (in their 'free' year), and then keep the price at that level for longer, effectively balancing out to the same overall loss over 2-3 years.

Unless someone else forces their hand to make a cut. Of course, recall that the Xbox was launched under the exact same mindset and never turned a profit. You can't plan rigid price points in a competitive market for 3 years in the future, they have to be flexible and able to react to competitors. For the 8th time, once you release at a pricepoint you can NEVER raise the price without adding something new to the functionality in this industry. You're stuck at $299 with a hard drive whose overhead will ensure that even in 5 years, you'll be stuck at a slashed price point that doesn't enable the at-cost sale of the console.

There's no way that Microsoft should believe it's going to have such a commanding market share that they can take the kind of hit you're all predicting. But maybe they do. If Allard's speech is any indication of the entire division's pigheadedness, then maybe 1 billion gamers will indeed be "reached."

Until then, I'm just talking about simple math.
 
Again I will say the fact that they have removed the necessity of a HDD for almost all functions of the machine indicates that MS intends either at launch or in the future to sell the Xbox 360 without a HDD.

Why would MS go through the trouble of making sure that the HDD is not required for any of the major functions of the console if they did not intend for the console to be sold at some point without a HDD included?

It very likely could be the scenario that Juice has spelled out (although I do not agree with him on the pricing). Think of it like the original Duke controller. At first all systems sold came with that controller but after about a year or a year and a half the Duke controller was no longer bundled but still being sold seperately. Eventually the Duke was phased out of the market and the majority of Xbox owners ended up using the controller-S.

When Xbox Live first came out at first everyone who used the service had to buy it with the headset/microphone, but later on they decided to make it optional and sold the service and gave away free trials to people who did not have a microphone. A similar thing could happen with the Xbox 360 HDD. The HDD is now just a vestigial peripheral which increases the functionality of your system, but is in no way a necessity for the system to function. Saying that MS has to sell the console with a HDD now is like saying that MS has to sell Xbox Live with a microphone. It's just not true anymore.

Think about what MS has said:
MS has said that a hardware revised Xbox 360 will eventually be coming with a HD-DVD drive.
MS has said that backwards compatibility tends to be a feature only early adopters of next-gen hardware care about.
The Xbox 360 does not need the HDD at all to function as an online or offline gaming machine. The HDD IS NOT REQUIRED FOR ANY XBOX 360 GAMES. This is not speculation or rumour, this is a fact, there is not a single Xbox 360 game that requires the presence of a HDD.

It could be that MS is simply just giving themselves the freedom to remove the HDD at some point if they need to price more competitively against Sony or it could be that the HDD-less Xbox 360 is a reality and is coming at launch or soon after.
 
morans.jpg


It's so simple, you dolts!

$ 300 system (single SKU)
+ 60 game
------------------
$ 360 purchase
 
impirius said:
morans.jpg


It's so simple, you dolts!

$ 300 system (single SKU)
+ 60 game
------------------
$ 360 purchase

Hah, I've got a friend whose last name is Moran. How unfortunate.

And maybe the system itself is just priced at $360. So witty when they announce it that the crowd'lll forget to boo =)
 
impirius said:
morans.jpg


It's so simple, you dolts!

$ 300 system (single SKU)
+ 60 game
------------------
$ 360 purchase
:lol Unfortunately the way most retailers work the bundles will be more like this:

$300 system
+ $60 game
+ $60 game
+ $60 game
+ $35 controller
-------------------
$515 purchase + tax and/or shipping :(

I seriously doubt you will find many retailers who are bundling only 1 game at launch.
 
---- said:
:lol Unfortunately the way most retailers work the bundles will be more like this:

$300 system
+ $60 game
+ $60 game
+ $60 game
+ $35 controller
-------------------
$515 purchase + tax and/or shipping :(

I seriously doubt you will find many retailers who are bundling only 1 game at launch.

What about everyone other than GameSpot Inc?

I don't think you'll see Circuit City, Best Buy, Target, Walmart doing bundles. And they account for most game sales.
 
juice said:
It's better to start out with one SKU, because that way there will be no possibility of Xbox 360s sitting on the shelf because it's not the one that's in stronger demand. Since there's no way to predict just how popular each SKU would be, it's entirely likely that you'd have leftover inventory after the all-important holiday season. Because hype and branding is even more important than the revenue generated by sales during the launch stage, it's not worth the risk of trying to guess how to apportion two different SKUs. In a worst case, you might have half your inventory sitting on shelves through Christmas unsold (as I said previously), and that would probably permanently stunt the adoption of the 360. While it would also open the door to Sony releasing their console later, it would be because the 360 branding was hurt badly enough that it ceased to be an entirely "hot, hard to find item" before it was a week old.

You miss my point. I'm not saying they should have two SKU's at launch ... I'm saying they should NEVER have two SKU's. My point is that even if you did it from the beginning, it wouldn't change much. In either case, it'll suck.

There is a way to predict how popular a SKU would be in your scenario. Unless there is a VERY significant advantage to the HDD version, the mainstream is going to buy the SKU that's cheaper - ie. no HDD. If developers even consider this scenario as a possibility, few will put any sort of major development behind HDD features ... therefore there is no significant advantage to the HDD version ... therefore few buy it ...

A circle is created that prevents any major exploration of what an HDD can do due to poor sales. If Microsoft has any brain, not only will they never bring out an HDD-less 360 ... they will TRUMPET this fact to the press, consumers, and especially developers/producers.
 
Onix said:
You miss my point. I'm not saying they should have two SKU's at launch ... I'm saying they should NEVER have two SKU's. My point is that even if you did it from the beginning, it wouldn't change much. In either case, it'll suck.

There is a way to predict how popular a SKU would be in your scenario. Unless there is a VERY significant advantage to the HDD version, the mainstream is going to buy the SKU that's cheaper - ie. no HDD. If developers even consider this scenario as a possibility, few will put any sort of major development behind HDD features ... therefore there is no significant advantage to the HDD version ... therefore few buy it ...

A circle is created that prevents any major exploration of what an HDD can do due to poor sales. If Microsoft has any brain, not only will they never bring out an HDD-less 360 ... they will TRUMPET this fact to the press, consumers, and especially developers/producers.

Zuh? Games can't make any significant use of the HD regardless under the new development guidelines.

The only difference between running an Xbox 360 with and without except for caching and maybe a few bells and whistles. Developers have had 5 years to come up with a new and innovative way to use a hard drive, and because they still haven't, I'm somehow doubting that the hard drive really has this potential of ever being the sort of peripheral that could split the user base in the traditional sense. Games can't require it anyway, so your point makes no sense.
 
god this is stupid.

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DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!
 
Ruas said:
whats a SKU?

Number used to signify a product in a retailer's catalog

In terms of development. When it says the Xbox 360 is the leading SKU, that means the game was made with the 360 in mind then ported. PS2 was the overwhelming leading SKU this gen
 
Barnimal said:
god this is stupid.

ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!ALL OF THE LAUNCH 360s WILL HAVE A HARD DRIVE AND THERE IS ONLY 1 SKU!!!



<juice>nuh uhn</juice>
 
Jesus Christ, shut the fuck up Barnimal. Why the hell are you still allowed to post? That was the most annoying thing EVER.

Edit: Oh my God, why did you quote the entire thing krypt0nian!? ugh...
 
Amir0x said:
Jesus Christ, shut the fuck up Barnimal. Why the hell are you still allowed to post? That was the most annoying thing EVER.

Edit: Oh my God, why did you quote the entire thing krypt0nian!? ugh...

FU. go cry somewhere else.
 
Amir0x said:
Jesus Christ, shut the fuck up Barnimal. Why the hell are you still allowed to post? That was the most annoying thing EVER.

Edit: Oh my God, why did you quote the entire thing krypt0nian!? ugh...

Stupid post to counter Juice's obsessive campaign.

It was quoted for truth.
 
Barnimal said:
FU. go cry somewhere else.

Don't do stupid shit, and you won't be called out for it.

krypt0nian said:
Stupid post to counter Juice's obsessive campaign.

It was quoted for truth.

If you had to encourage Barnimal's ridiculous post, you should have just quoted one little segment of it. Barnimal's fucking idiotic post is officially as bad as anything Juice has posted in this thread now.
 
Amir0x said:
If you had to encourage Barnimal's ridiculous post, you should have just quoted one little segment of it. Barnimal's fucking idiotic post is officially as bad as anything Juice has posted in this thread now.


No worries, Ami! Taken care of.
 
stupid post for the stupid people who truly believe there will be a 360 without a hard drive. if you dont like me then put me on your ignore list. its that simple.
 
Barnimal said:
stupid post for the stupid people who truly believe there will be a 360 without a hard drive. if you dont like me then put me on your ignore list. its that simple.

Don't contribute to stupidity, it only makes you look stupid by association. Also, I don't put anyone on ignore. I don't dislike anyone, only specific posts, so there's no reason for me to utilize it.
 
If my campaign is so stupid and obsessive, then why can't anyone here do a point-by-point rebuttal? Why hasn't anyone looked at all of the dozen or so reasons I've laid out and addressed more than one of them?

It's because many of you are a bunch of fucking sheep who don't think for yourselves or know a goddamned thing about business.

Whether what I said here ends up playing out or not has no bearing on whether it's a better idea than taking such a big hit by launching at $299 with a hard drive. The Xbox 360 is expensive as balls to produce. The CPUs have got to be mindnumbingly price, so does the GPU, and there's a good chunk of RAM in there too, hard drive aside. The original console only had the hard drive and an expensive GPU. It skimped on RAM (64MB was pretty lousy even in 2000), and are you so soon to forget that it runs with a streamlined Celeron?

Something has to give if Microsoft intends to make money.
 
ok. sorry bro. i will admit my post was alittle excessive but it just gets annoying reading about this whole thing in a diff thread every day when its already been officially said that every 360 will have a hard drive. :)

thhorsewtf1kh_26652.gif


If my campaign is so stupid and obsessive, then why can't anyone here do a point-by-point rebuttal? Why hasn't anyone looked at all of the dozen or so reasons I've laid out and addressed more than one of them?

It's because you're all a bunch of fucking sheep who don't think for yourselves or know a goddamned thing about business.

Whether what I said here ends up playing out or not has no bearing on whether it's a better idea than taking such a big hit by launching at $299 with a hard drive. The Xbox 360 is expensive as balls to produce. The CPUs have got to be mindnumbingly price, so does the GPU, and there's a good chunk of RAM in there too, hard drive aside. The original console only had the hard drive and an expensive GPU. It skimped on RAM (64MB was pretty lousy even in 2000), and are you so soon to forget that it runs with a streamlined Celeron?

Something has to give if Microsoft intends to make money.

for 1, MS is losing LESS on each 360 sold compared to what they were losing on the xbox.
2, LIVE is built into EVERY machine and ALL people with access to broadband and a 360 will be LIVE enabled. The dangly carrot for those who havent jumped onto live yet will be enticing and =MORE profit for MS.
3, launching at 299 ensures that they will sell as many units as possible before the PS3. bigger userbase=more support=more mindshare=more sales=PROFIT.

WHY DONT YOU GET THIS???
 
Barnimal said:
ok. sorry bro. i will admit my post was alittle excessive but it just gets annoying reading about this whole thing in a diff thread every day when its already been officially said that every 360 will have a hard drive. :)

thhorsewtf1kh_26652.gif

DO YOU READ?

This thread is not about the Xbox 360 launching sans hard drive! It's about it launching at a price point higher than $299, in order to open up the possibility of (a) offering a hard drive free version and sell with less of a loss and (b) not bleed EVEN MORE than they did on the original console.
 
Barnimal said:
ok. sorry bro. i will admit my post was alittle excessive but it just gets annoying reading about this whole thing in a diff thread every day when its already been officially said that every 360 will have a hard drive. :)

thhorsewtf1kh_26652.gif

I hear you. Everyone has their pet peeves.

And Juice: The reason no one is having a point by point rebuttal is because no matter how "ridiculous" it seems from a business point of view, it has been confirmed and re-confirmed from EVERYONE that the launch XBX360 will have a harddrive and that there will only be one SKU. So what is the point in debating something that was put to death months ago?
 
Amir0x said:
I hear you. Everyone has their pet peeves.

And Juice: The reason no one is having a point by point rebuttal is because no matter how "ridiculous" it seems from a business point of view, it has been confirmed and re-confirmed from EVERYONE that the launch XBX360 will have a harddrive and that there will only be one SKU. So what is the point in debating something that was put to death months ago?


<juice>nuh uhn</juice>
 
Juice said:
DO YOU READ?

This thread is not about the Xbox 360 launching sans hard drive! It's about it launching at a price point higher than $299, in order to open up the possibility of (a) offering a hard drive free version and sell with less of a loss and (b) not bleed EVEN MORE than they did on the original console.

see above. the plan is to sell as many 360s before the ps3 hits as possible. the profit REALLY starts rolling if and when the ps3 is launched and doesnt show gamers that jump in graphics that sony is hyping. then what happens? you'll have a $350+ system vs a $299 system that does things just as good although alittle less powerful. 360s really start selling, MS gets MORE support and in comes MORE profit and a stable future for the 360.
 
Fuck it, there's no point anymore.

before i go,

1. I realize that a hard drive/1 SKU has been confirmed, and what I'm talking about doesn't deviate from that in the slightest. There will be a hard drive and one SKU, it's just a question of how long in my thinking. Which would certainly not contradict a thing that's been said by Microsoft to this point. The fact developers aren't allowed to require the HDD and that insiders aren't vehemently defending an indefinitely packed-in device should be a clue.

2. Live is still accessible without a hard drive.

3. Everything else Barnimal said is entirely bullheaded and presumptive, not to mention not a single improvement over any aspect of the Xbox's original game plan. Which is probably what the blokes at Microsoft plan to do anyway. So I'm not disagreeing that there's a great likelihood that MS will play it out as you described, I'm just saying it's not the best decision.
 
Stop bickering kids

GAF MEMBER 1 - IT has the HDD
GAF MEMBER 2 - No it doesn't
GAF MEMBER 3 - SHUT UP MEMBER 2 you know shit
GAF MEMBER 4 - Whatever MEMBER 3 2 is fucking right look "INSERT POINTLESS ARTICLE"
GAF MEMBER 1 - Lies look at this "INSERT POINTLESS ARTICLE 2"
GAF MEMBER 5 - WTF IS THIS SHIT I"M LEAVING
 
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