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Xbox Founder - PS4 Wins The Console War 'By A Nose'

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Circinus

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If people baulked at the price of the XB1, what makes you think they'll jump on a headset that'll cost more than the console?
HoloLens would have way more applications than a game console. It's a stand-alone computing platform for productivity, communication and entertainment.

You can't really compare it with a game console, because people would buy it for completely different reasons.


And don't get me wrong, I think it is likely that PS4 will end up outselling the XB1 by quite a margin. What I mean, is that it isn't set in stone and there are a lot of upcoming factors (AR/HoloLens, Windows 10, Morpheus, games, marketing etc) that are not really predictable so that it isn't far-fetched to think that it's possible that XB1 can still come close to PS4's sales. Like if Minecraft 2 was only on XB1, that could make a huge impact on XB1's sales/popularity. It's largely hypothetical though.
 

Nightengale

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It's a stand-alone computing platform for productivity, communication and entertainment.
That's the key thing though. It's standalone, and on itself, a broad computing platform for more than just games.

If AR takes off, I can actually see Hololens being a bigger deal than Xbox, but it'll sell on the merits of the fact that it's a W10 platform that does everything, rather than it selling Xboxes.
 

cgaduck

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Dec 10, 2013
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I guess history could repeat itself in mirror image and I suspect that's what MS and their fans hope for.

PS3 came out later with a large sales gap.

It contained hardware no-one was committed to (Blu-Ray)

Sony made comments that were unpopular with gamers (We could put a brick in a box and still sell 5 mil if it had the PS logo. Gamers will get a second job to buy the PS3. (paraphrase)

PS3 was more expensive on release.

They turned that train wreck around by the end of the generation, maybe MS can as well if they have a new team with a new vision?

Signed an Ex X360 owner who moved to PS4 this gen.
 

Galvanise_

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HoloLens would have way more applications than a game console. It's a stand-alone computing platform for productivity, communication and entertainment.

You can't really compare it with a game console, because people would buy it for completely different reasons.
It may very well indeed have lots of other applications, but what about it would make average joe go out and buy an XB1? This thread is about Fries belief that the XB1 will close the gap and only be behind by a nose. For that to happen, there'll have to be months or years where the XB1 will have to outsell the PS4 significantly.

As Hololens is standalone, I won't need an XB1 to enjoy it.
 

Raist

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Well, to be fair, this guy was around during the time of the original Xbox, so compared to this...



...the PS4's lead could be seen as just "a nose". ;)
I always thought this gif would be a lot better if columns were synced.
 

slavesnyder

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Nov 18, 2013
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If people baulked at the price of the XB1, what makes you think they'll jump on a headset that'll cost more than the console?
If they show a good enough reason people will buy it. So far i have no clue what that could be.
But microsoft is well-known for innovation, taking risks and creating new and exciting things that there is no need to worry.
 

Guymelef

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I guess history could repeat itself in mirror image and I suspect that's what MS and their fans hope for.

PS3 came out later with a large sales gap.

It contained hardware no-one was committed to (Blu-Ray)

Sony made comments that were unpopular with gamers (We could put a brick in a box and still sell 5 mil if it had the PS logo. Gamers will get a second job to buy the PS3. (paraphrase)

PS3 was more expensive on release.

They turned that train wreck around by the end of the generation, maybe MS can as well if they have a new team with a new vision?

Signed an Ex X360 owner who moved to PS4 this gen.
You forgot something.
 

Mendax

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For some reason this sounds fucking scary.

edit: nevermind I thought you wrote "in your head".
lol now that would be cool

No, it's standalone. It's basically a PC running Windows 10 on your head.
that's what I thought. It's also probably a different audience from the bone audience (at least in part) so willingness to buy a bone at 500 bucks doesnt mean much for the lens I'd say.
 

Faustek

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I always try to remind people that nearly 50% of all 360 sales came from the US as well.

Nah, the only winner that matters at the end of the day is the person who can kick back and play what they enjoy on whatever. *stares at the fucked up data at work*
 

Steroyd

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I don't think it's that far-fetched.

Things are never set in stone, I agree with him, there's still a lot that can change over the course of the generation especially with new emergent technology such as AR and VR and with Microsoft's Windows 10 platform as a universal app platform, assuming those are going to play a big factor in Xbox One.

On the other hand, PS4 also has VR with Morpheus and Sony is also doing R&D in AR (not related to PlayStation though).

I just mean that there's a lot of factors that can change the trends over the course of a generation (a couple of years, ~5 years)
Yes things are not set in stone, but for MS to even close the gap they need to either sell more than double what Sony is selling in the US, or start selling more in Europe, a region that favoured the PS3 despite it being more expensive with no gaems for a long time, pick your poison, and even if such a scenario did happen thanks to the tech we'd be relying on Sony just twiddling their thumbs and let that market go to MS without their own version, like with what we saw with Playstation Move.
 

Circinus

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That's the key thing though. It's standalone, and on itself, a broad computing platform for more than just games.

If AR takes off, I can actually see Hololens being a bigger deal than Xbox, but it'll sell on the merits of the fact that it's a W10 platform that does everything, rather than it selling Xboxes.
It may very well indeed have lots of other applications, but what about it would make average joe go out and buy an XB1? This thread is about Fries belief that the XB1 will close the gap and only be behind by a nose. For that to happen, there'll have to be months or years where the XB1 will have to outsell the PS4 significantly.

As Hololens is standalone, I won't need an XB1 to enjoy it.
I agree.

But like I edited in my previous post:

"Don't get me wrong, I think it is likely that PS4 will end up outselling the XB1 by quite a margin. What I mean, is that it isn't set in stone and there are a lot of upcoming factors (AR/HoloLens, Windows 10, Morpheus, games, marketing etc) that are not really predictable so that it isn't far-fetched to think that it's possible that XB1 can still come close to PS4's sales. Like if Minecraft 2 was only on XB1, that could make a huge impact on XB1's sales/popularity. It's largely hypothetical though."

I mean if for example Minecraft 2 would be on XB1 and would have some sort of HoloLens connectivity for Minecraft 2 in AR that would be a significant factor to have an impact on sales. I can't come up with an exact idea immediately, but I think there are potentially various things that they could do to connect XB1 to HoloLens.


He might be right. We can't tell the future, maybe every Pinocchio will eat crow by the end of this gen.
Maybe he knew something we didn't, some cool new tech MS working behind the scene? Maybe he saw the new Rare game that Phil Harrison said it was highlight of his career?

I mean many of us surprise how this gen turn out so far, there are still a lot of variables on the table.
More price cut, Win10, Dx12, Halo, Gears, Hololens and Minecraft, who knew? Maybe one of these could turn the table.
Exactly. :)
 

Circinus

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Mar 18, 2015
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I guess history could repeat itself in mirror image and I suspect that's what MS and their fans hope for.

PS3 came out later with a large sales gap.

It contained hardware no-one was committed to (Blu-Ray)

Sony made comments that were unpopular with gamers (We could put a brick in a box and still sell 5 mil if it had the PS logo. Gamers will get a second job to buy the PS3. (paraphrase)

PS3 was more expensive on release.

They turned that train wreck around by the end of the generation, maybe MS can as well if they have a new team with a new vision?

Signed an Ex X360 owner who moved to PS4 this gen.
Going by ZhugeEX's posts, the PS3 always outsold the X360 launch aligned though.
 

bombshell

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Going by ZhugeEX's posts, the PS3 always outsold the X360 launch aligned though.
Yeah, except maybe in the first year where they seem neck and neck based on this:



I don't know why the popular opinion seems to be that PS3 only turned it around at the end of the generation, when the fact is that launch aligned it outsold 360 the whole time.

Edit: And if the first years of PS3 were a "trainwreck" to quote cgaduck, what is Xbox One then, when it seems to be on its way to track behind PS3 in a month or two?
 

Birgitte2004

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Going by ZhugeEX's posts, the PS3 always outsold the X360 launch aligned though.
This the key feature the "PS3 came back on 360" people always seem to be unaware of. They believed all the "PS3 is selling worse than the Gamecube" lies so-called "journalists" were writing early in the PS3's lifetime.

The only way the Xbox One has a chance to "win" is if the PS4 does a Wii-like total fall off a cliff. Seems unlikely.
 

family_guy

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Things could turn around for Xbox One. All someone has to do is shut down the Playstation Network. Wouldn't be hard based on history.
 

Rymuth

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Things could turn around for Xbox One. All someone has to do is shut down the Playstation Network. Wouldn't be hard based on history.
Are you claiming Sony has planted DRM features into PS4 like MS did with the Xbone?

Interesting... do you have proof?
 

justsomeguy

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Pardon me, do you have any Grey Poupon?

Lighten up, dude. I saw your comment about your post history, and you may well have a point. It's entirely possible that 99.9% of your posts are perfectly reasonable, but jumping on the defense force whenever people are having a bit of lighthearted fun tends to stick in one's memory more than the average post. Especially when it's public knowledge that you happen to work for Microsoft. Don't get me wrong, you've probably earned a bit of respect for owning up to it, but it does make those defensive posts stick out even more.

Maybe it's a good idea to leave it up to the mods? They always seem pretty on the ball whenever someone gets out of hand.
You're over stating the context of my comment. I didn't "defense force" anything or suggest the thread should somehow not exist or be locked, I merely disagreed with someone who said it was thread of the year. That's doing a massive disservice to many of the extremely high quality threads that do occur :)
 

family_guy

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Are you claiming Sony has planted DRM features into PS4 like MS did with the Xbone?

Interesting... do you have proof?
Umm no. Just that Sony has a spotty history when it comes to a reliable network. DDOS attacks put them out of commission much longer than MS. Then there's the hack that put them out of service for a month or longer. I prefer PS4 but Sony still has a lot of work to do.
 

justsomeguy

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Walking into a thread where ppl are just having fun and say wow I expect "real convos" is silly :p
I didn't say that - I said it was the opposite of my idea of thread of the year and gave my reasons rather than just doing a drive by
 

cgaduck

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Dec 10, 2013
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Yeah, except maybe in the first year where they seem neck and neck based on this:



I don't know why the popular opinion seems to be that PS3 only turned it around at the end of the generation, when the fact is that launch aligned it outsold 360 the whole time.

Edit: And if the first years of PS3 were a "trainwreck" to quote cgaduck, what is Xbox One then, when it seems to be on its way to track behind PS3 in a month or two?
I must admit I was one of those who thought PS3 didn't start selling well until Blu ray became the defacto format. I may have to refocus my hindsight :) Leading up to release and its release was not Sony's finest hour but I still got one even though I had an X360. The 360 remained my 1st console throughout that generation. This time I have a PS4 and am still waiting for 'my' compelling reason to get an XB1.
 

Xando

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Umm no. Just that Sony has a spotty history when it comes to a reliable network. DDOS attacks put them out of commission much longer than MS. Then there's the hack that put them out of service for a month or longer. I prefer PS4 but Sony still has a lot of work to do.
Sure as hell flatlined PS4 sales when PSN had problems last year.
 

justsomeguy

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lol now that would be cool



that's what I thought. It's also probably a different audience from the bone audience (at least in part) so willingness to buy a bone at 500 bucks doesnt mean much for the lens I'd say.
I think we said the other day that lens will cost more than a console. Imo it's not in the slightest a gaming accessory / stand alone in the sense that kinecr was targeted at xbox. Not to say there won't be some cool gaming experiences but it's not the core purpose. I doubt lens will make an impact on xb1 sales.

Now, if they rework the core tech
To be powered by xbox & kinect as a gaming accessory, that may be interesting, "xbox lens" or something. Either way I'm going to get a lens and valve vr I think :)
 

CoG

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Umm no. Just that Sony has a spotty history when it comes to a reliable network. DDOS attacks put them out of commission much longer than MS. Then there's the hack that put them out of service for a month or longer. I prefer PS4 but Sony still has a lot of work to do.
Seems to me that XBL is going down a lot more than PSN lately. Wasn't XBL down for hours on Friday due to DDOS?
 

Rolf NB

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The only "real" thing to discuss here is how it is possible for an interviewer to take this answer without bursting into laughter.
 

FranXico

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Umm no. Just that Sony has a spotty history when it comes to a reliable network. DDOS attacks put them out of commission much longer than MS. Then there's the hack that put them out of service for a month or longer. I prefer PS4 but Sony still has a lot of work to do.
Seems to me that XBL is going down a lot more than PSN lately. Wasn't XBL down for hours on Friday due to DDOS?
To be fair, I think neither of them are deserving of their reputation.

As of last year, PSN hardly ever goes down on its own, with only the notorious DDOS attack disrupting it.

Conversely, XBL is not perfect either but people have psychologically conditioned themselves to believe that it is since the 360 days in my opinion.
 

Theonik

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Yeah, except maybe in the first year where they seem neck and neck based on this:

http://i481.photobucket.com/albums/rr180/jabbamk1/3_zps1pb5ns1k.jpg

I don't know why the popular opinion seems to be that PS3 only turned it around at the end of the generation, when the fact is that launch aligned it outsold 360 the whole time.

Edit: And if the first years of PS3 were a "trainwreck" to quote cgaduck, what is Xbox One then, when it seems to be on its way to track behind PS3 in a month or two?
Wonder where PS4 will be by the 24th month if 299 miraculously happens in September.
 
Sep 15, 2011
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Oh dear we need a chalkboard and add Hololens as the next thing that will make the Xbone outsell the PS4 WW. That will have as much impact on Xbox sales as Surface ever had.

Seriously do people not understand the windfall needed to close the worldwide gap to a nose? That is why this thread is all memes, because it is a hilariously misguided prediction.

Clearly he is being sarcastic with his "by a nose" comment.
Except he doubled down when asked for clarification.

http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=162471574#post162471574
 

DieH@rd

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Oh dear we need a chalkboard and add Hololens as the next thing that will make the Xbone outsell the PS4 WW. That will have as much impact on Xbox sales as Surface ever had.
Hololens will be very expensive experimental product, it doesn't even need to be involved in the console sales talk.

A 299 announcement is going to be thread of the year.
Only, it will not happen this year.
 

ZhugeEX

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Going by ZhugeEX's posts, the PS3 always outsold the X360 launch aligned though.
One of the factors is that the Xbox 360 was coming off the original Xbox which wasn't really a success. It only saw traction in the USA to begin with and during the first few years of its life it didn't really sell like it was anything special. It was just an average console.

The PS3 came off the back of the successful PS1 and PS2 and had a worldwide base of users who already knew about the brand. So despite the high price etc... it actually did decently.... but nowhere near as well as the PS1/PS2.

Of course the Wii was the real winner in the early years.

The Xbox 360 only really took off in the USA due to brand, worldwide due to price and after 2010 thanks to Kinect.

Ultimately the Xbox 360 did better after 2010 than the PS3 did after 2010 but both have ended up with very similar LTD sales as of March 31st 2015. Of course the 360 did have a year head start.
 
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