Lysander518
Banned
It's as screwed as the PS3 was. Most people won't care what was said about the console. They'll care about what the console acutally does.
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Xbox ONE's Prospects: How Screwed Is It, Exactly?
- Thread starter jWILL253
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Never owned a PS3 but I'm sure it was good enough and more importantly free. Plus EA, Activision and Ubisoft have their own online networks.
Neuromancer
Member
Son of a bitch. They'll get me too.
Hopefully there will at least have been a big price cut by then.
So what should they have done, see how Microsoft was successful in online gaming and do something completely different that may not be successful? Microsoft saw motion controls from Nintendo and decided to make that a central part of their next gen system, so yeah. Everyone copies each other's successful strategies. Microsoft copied Sony's successful strategy of not trying to actively screw your customers with mandatory online checks which is a good thing that they did.
Early adopters = core.
Core people are asked frequently of what to buy. Early showings for PS4 = PS4 dominating for quite a while.
Likewise, most social gamers will buy the system their friends are on. First friends buy PS4 = their friends buying PS4s. Same goes for the Xboner.
Core people are asked frequently of what to buy. Early showings for PS4 = PS4 dominating for quite a while.
Likewise, most social gamers will buy the system their friends are on. First friends buy PS4 = their friends buying PS4s. Same goes for the Xboner.
Manmademan
Member
DVD is sort of long in the tooth, but mandatory hard drives mean installation of games (As GTAV is doing on 360) is perfectly workable alternative for the vast majority of this gen. Sony could have simply made a DVD based PS3, or one without the proprietary cell technology (or both) and come in at $399 or so with an excellent gaming system.
Blu-Ray was simply too expensive and too slow for PS3 inclusion at that point, but using the playstation as a vehicle to drive adoption was worth more to sony- or so they thought.
Marty Chinn
Member
Wait, you're arguing in defense of PS3's eventual online features and you never had one nor experienced what it was like before and after?
NullPointer
Member
Yep. The Xbox drove online and set the bar. In fact, the 360 is *still* the high bar across the consoles, and by a decent margin.
Well it worked. HD-DVD was less expensive, had superior video quality in the beginning, and was region free. Sony wanted to kill them before they could make a splash and they did by making blu-ray central to their next system. They effectively killed an emerging, competing technology by forcing it on the PS3.
Well, it is evened out by the DRM being dropped, but I do wonder about this. PS3 really, REALLY screwed up, yet they still got through half because of carried momentum from PS1/PS2 and half because of a smart soft-relaunch in 2009, making it appealingly priced at last and having loads of great exclusives. Microsoft meanwhile seems to have about the same momentum the PS3 currently has, and thus could lose much harder as at best they're king of SOME markets, but nto all of them, and not to a grossly disproportionate degree. Probably depends on how many new gamers they got versus those with Nintendo and/or Sony backgrounds, and how much they care about sticking around with Xbox.
Of course it will, just like OG Xbox Live accounts transferred to 360.
GuitarAtomik
Member
I think to the public at large, the X1 isn't as screwed as people here believe. The price isn't as big a sticking point to the mainstream because they LIKE the Kinect and anyone planning on buying a console at these prices aren't going to cry as hard over $100 with that in mind. That said, I think it's definitely at a major disadvantage due to the hardcore being so against it and yes, the $100 extra for the peripheral that they largely don't want.
I think one of the biggest disadvantages this holiday is just not having nearly as many units available as Sony will. They're both going to sell out but Sony will have the lead at 2-1 or possibly 3-1 just because of availability. This probably won't matter in the long term though. I think around 6 months from launch, around the time supplies aren't so strained, they'll drop the price $50 (probably at E3) and the price gap won't be so bad for them. After that, who knows.
I think one of the biggest disadvantages this holiday is just not having nearly as many units available as Sony will. They're both going to sell out but Sony will have the lead at 2-1 or possibly 3-1 just because of availability. This probably won't matter in the long term though. I think around 6 months from launch, around the time supplies aren't so strained, they'll drop the price $50 (probably at E3) and the price gap won't be so bad for them. After that, who knows.
in before PS+!
maabus1999
Member
Posts like these give Patchers comments about GAF credibility...
I'm not criticising Sony for it though. I'm just saying it's a patent untruth that Microsoft have done nothing and Sony have done everything in a vacuum. I'm glad Sony copied XBL, because XBL was great. And I'm glad that they improved it with PS+. I hope that MS change things about XBL too.
SporeCrawler
Member
I think one of the main reasons sony got to turnaround the PS3 was their first party software.
MS conversely has downsized their first party efforts heavily. The might rebuil it in the future but lets say im sceptical.
Do we have concrete shipment numbers or are you referring to the fact that ms isnt launching in japan?
Zok310
Banned
Disclaimer: This is not a fanboy thread. I do NOT work for Sony Computer Entertainment, or any of its subsidiaries. I am not part of a social marketing agency, nor am I paid to astroturf. However, the views expressed in this thread are not to be taken lightly, and may cause anger among Xbox fans. Reading the posts in this thread may cause uncontrollable laughter, an urge to troll, hot flashes, headache, fever, nausea, indigestion, diarrhea, rage fits, and slow page loading due to reaction GIF's. Poster/lurker discretion is advised.
Um... I don't think many people on this board really understand how fucked Microsoft is with the Xbox ONE.
That's not hyperbole, or any sort of bias-influenced statement. I honestly haven't seen anything this lopsided (in terms of public opinion, level of excitement, and of course, preorders) since Sony destroyed Sega and Nintendo two generations in a row.
Go to any online poll that asks to chose between the two next gen consoles; In each and every single one that I've seen, the PS4 always hovers around 75-85%, while the Xbox ONE hovers around 15-25%. That means, if we were to correlate it to actual sales predictions, the PS4 will outsell the Xbox ONE 3:1, or even 4:1. Many detractors say that it's not representative of the larger market. But, most of these polls have a large enough sample size to make an error rate higher than 10% completely impossible.
I mean... just look at this:
The percentage of votes for either side are represented by how much one console's controller pic takes up a given portion of the screen. As you can see, the Xbox ONE controller is nowhere to be found. And it's IP-based, so you can't just spam votes, unless you're a very technically-skilled asshole.
That is laughably unbelievable.
Also, a lot of people compare the ONE to the PS3, but the situations are not the same.
When the PS3 was released, it was overpriced and over-designed. But, considering the feature set (a more powerful, fully backwards compatible console that allowed for different storage formats, two extra USB ports, allowed you to add Linux, and was also the cheapest Blu-Ray player on the market at the time), the price was arguable justifiable. However, Sony's PR did a really terrible job of explaining that to people. Also, NOBODY who is isn't an enthusiast is willing to pay that much for something that isn't an iPad, an HDTV, or a PC (considering that three of the aforementioned features are also available on PC anyways). Sony spent the rest of the generation catching up to Microsoft, and as of this year, were finally able to do so (which says a lot about the recent efforts of Sony).
The Xbox ONE is completely different. It's intentionally under-designed, under-powered, and overpriced. It doesn't have the one-year head start the 360 had. It's definitely not cheaper than the PS4 (even overall, Mr. Sessler. LIVE still cost money, and PS4's camera is only $60). It's first party is nowhere near as strong as Sony's or Nintendo's (85% of the public haven't seen Titanfall, apparently). And, they are having yield issues (apparently, as rumored by the BOAT).
But, none of those things would be major factors had not Microsoft try to get away with murder in the first degree!
Look... it's one thing to try to passive-aggressively fuck over consumers (which is normal for most corporations as large as Microsoft). However, when you try to aggressively fuck with people, people are gonna tell you to fuck off. That said, despite the mea culpa after E3, people will not forget Microsoft's original policies for the Xbox ONE. Despite what many people say, we are nowhere near an all-digital age; We just don't have the internet infrastructure, availability, or pricing for that to happen, and we won't unless governments the world over mandate it (in America in particular, the government has to force competition among cable and internet companies in general, but that's for another thread). People also like their used games, and having ownership rights. Microsoft tried to force a new way of business onto consumers (that only benefits them and the major publishers), and it backfired. People may be stupid at times, but they shouldn't be treated like mindless criminals. Even after the reversal, Microsoft showed its colors. The writing is on the wall.
In 2005, Sony got waaaaaay to far ahead of itself; In 2013, Microsoft stuck its head all the way up EA and Ubisoft's ass, and literally told consumers to go fuck themselves and buy their old shit if they don't have internet. This is in addition to treating countries like Japan as second rate, and with it only releasing in 21 countries anyway, Microsoft has guaranteed that the Xbox ONE will be crushed worldwide by Sony.
In my opinion, the Xbox ONE will be lucky to do N64 numbers this coming generation. In fact, I think it'll sell well into the upper 30 millions. You cannot have the public opinion this lopsided, and expect it not to translate over into NPD figures. The PlayStation 4 is literally the only true next-gen option outside of a WiiU (and I expect them to pick it up, too. The console is cool, they just need games).
Anyways, yeah... they are truly screwed, IMO...
Agreed, MS painted the XBO into a corner.
Manmademan
Member
That they did, but the collapse of the ownership market means that Blu-Ray royalties are worth far, far less than Sony anticipated. They lost more money with their PS3 strategy than they will ever earn from Blu-Ray.
Pushing Blu-Ray was based on the assumption that the levels of ownership DVD was enjoying would simply shift over to Blu-Ray, and it wasn't anywhere close.
Actually most mainstream people who enjoyed Kinect will wonder why they have to buy a system with Kinect when they already have Kinect at home. They'll be wondering why there isn't a $400 version without Kinect since they already have Kinect.
SpinningBirdKick
Banned
It will under perform expectations in the launch window period.
MS have left a sour taste in core consumers' mouths with their handling of the DRM clusterfuck. So I can easily imagine many not buying the xBone on principle.
The dumb horse armour buying mofo's will still likely buy it regardless.
Once the second wave of PS4/xBone software arrives the weaker xBone hardware will likely be more obvious to average consumers. So MS will likely face a much tougher battle to win consumers as time goes on.
Taking into account the higher price of the xBone at launch it's difficult to see how MS can turn things around.
I don't expect the xBone to be killed off quickly however, I think it will be more like a slow death of a thousand cuts. Third parties will slowly step away from the platform throughout its lifecycle in favour of the PS4 as the PS4 userbase growth outpaces the xBone.
MS have left a sour taste in core consumers' mouths with their handling of the DRM clusterfuck. So I can easily imagine many not buying the xBone on principle.
The dumb horse armour buying mofo's will still likely buy it regardless.
Once the second wave of PS4/xBone software arrives the weaker xBone hardware will likely be more obvious to average consumers. So MS will likely face a much tougher battle to win consumers as time goes on.
Taking into account the higher price of the xBone at launch it's difficult to see how MS can turn things around.
I don't expect the xBone to be killed off quickly however, I think it will be more like a slow death of a thousand cuts. Third parties will slowly step away from the platform throughout its lifecycle in favour of the PS4 as the PS4 userbase growth outpaces the xBone.
I doubt it was broken. All Microsoft brought was an excellent online infrastructure? Whoop-dee-doo. They're no game developers -> Out.
Manmademan
Member
honestly? I don't really see this happening. The PS4 and Xbone are extremely similar in terms of architecture. There's a power gap, but ports between PS4/Xbone/PC should be dead simple. It will have enough of a userbase that quick and dirty ports will make financial sense as long as the PS4 is viable, but I don't expect it to be lead platform for many titles after the first year or two.
It'll probably do fine in the US. Worldwide I don't see it doing well considering how limited their launch is. Overall I can see the PS4 winning by a pretty hefty margin, but not 4:1 or 3:1 like the poll suggests.
Which, BTW, the poll image in the OP is from the last 24 hours, not overall. The PS4 was ahead in the overall votes with around 75% if I recall correctly.
Which, BTW, the poll image in the OP is from the last 24 hours, not overall. The PS4 was ahead in the overall votes with around 75% if I recall correctly.
maabus1999
Member
People have no issues buying the iPad 2. All you have to do sometimes is put a new number after it and people will come. On that note Ninetendo would've done better IMO if it was called Wii 2, if they really wanted to continue the Wii brand.
Well, going by Wikipedia the Kinect was last reported at doing about 24 million, which is hardly bad at all BUT would mean a comparable user base to the Xbox or GC, and it's definitely that sort of fad, flash-in-the-pan item that may no longer be appealing, especially not after the PRISM outing and Microsoft being confirmed as one of the first on board with the program. We'll see how much the public still cares in the long run, but I do expect quite a few people are more weary about throwing a camera of theirs in the living room now that paranoid fears have been partially confirmed (albeit the more grounded ones), especially with the factor they wanted the system always online as mandatory and there's little doubt it'll push the always online angle heavily even without requiring it. I'd expect if nothing else Europe (notably Germany) being completely and utterly turned off now.
What?
quickwhips
Member
Why? WHY do you think people are crazy to think that? I keep hearing people say this, I suppose because it sorta sounds like the levelheaded thing to say... right up until you actually analyze it.
The only reason 360 dominated in America was price, better multiplayer, online infrastructure and a year head start. Every single one of these advantages is erased (and in most cases reversed), and to boot XBO is also now dealing with a huge perception problem. Not only that, we're beginning to get the hard data to suggest this isn't true as well - Gamestop, for example, had like a 3:1 allotment of PS4 to Xbox One's, and they have sold out of every single PS4 unit, and yet still have XBO for sale. Amazon is similarly slanted dramatically toward PS4 (although, neither are sold out yet). Every single poll that has been done shows a massive enthusiasm gap. Every single media cycle this year has been lost by Microsoft.
I just feel like people don't want to just admit things are problematic for MS
Yes, because it's fanboys driving this narrative. I think I'm going to start a collection of posts; I don't think there has ever been a time where crow deserved more to be served down the line
Problematic so much that I'm not buying the console and getting a ps4 instead? Yes. They are not on deaths door like Neogaf would wish though.
NullPointer
Member
GuitarAtomik
Member
I'm referring to the reports from Gamestop and Amazon about having a something like a 4-1 allotment of pre-order spots in favor of Sony. This is probably due to the ESRAM issue Microsoft is supposedly having.
True. I don't expect there to be THAT many mainstream at launch for either console though. We probably won't see the effect of that until maybe next holiday which is why they have time to come down in price. I would bet that there are enough hardcore still interested in X1 enough to make it sell out while it's supply strained though.
Extra Sauce
Member
As someone who is rooting for Sony, I think OP is full of hyperbole.
Let's not forget that Microsoft has a very popular/recognizable brand going in, some killer exclusives and DRM is no longer an issue (trust still is, but that's a non-factor for the mainstream audience).
Let's not forget that Microsoft has a very popular/recognizable brand going in, some killer exclusives and DRM is no longer an issue (trust still is, but that's a non-factor for the mainstream audience).
Yeah I agree that we've all become used to number schemes. That's what makes the Xbox One and Wii-U so baffling as far as names go. Xbox One sounds like it's older and Wii-U sounds like an add-on for Wii that has something to do with education.
Conciliator
Banned
The majority people who will be console purchasers in the coming years don't know or don't care, and the majority of the ones that did know and care don't now that they rescinded all that ugly stuff. There is a sizable chunk of diehards that will boycott the xbone even after the policy change just out of spite, but it's a vocal minority. They definitely did some damage but there will be plenty of xboxes out there in peoples homes.
What do you mean 'like NeoGAF would wish'? NeoGAF is not a single entity. Also, whether they are on death doors is only an extreme expression of a sentiment shared by most people looking at the data and the situation right now: Microsoft is in real trouble. I don't know any other way to interpret that.
So the only thing we can say with some degree of certainty is
a.) Nothing is currently decided yet until the systems come out; strategies might change that make XBO more appealing or PS4 less appealing.
b.) PS4 is currently dominating XBO in pre-orders @ most major retailers including Gamestop (recently sold out) and Amazon.
c.) PS4 is currently way ahead in the enthusiasm gap.
I think with our currently available information, however, we can say they are in trouble.
Marty Chinn
Member
Troll post? You must be a troll....
The Librarian
Banned
Honestly, now that that Microsoft has backtracked on their DRM policies, I think the console will do fine. However, I think it'll do worse than the Xbox 360. Given what we've seen of the Xbox One so far, it seems that Microsoft is putting less effort in expanding its market than they did when going from the Xbox to the Xbox 360. This could change with Gamescom and the upcoming Tokyo Game Show (if MS is attending that), but from what I've seen, they're note making a comparable effort to capture the Japanese market like they did with the 360. Indeed, Microsoft's focus overall seems to be less about games than it did with the 360. I expect the Xbox One to do worse than the 360 in Japan and Europe, and about the same in the US.
But I'm horrible at predicting this type of stuff.
But I'm horrible at predicting this type of stuff.
Yea, ignore anything he says.
Posting standards have dropped badly lately.
This is going nowhere.
Marty Chinn
Member
Fixed that for you.
Arkam
Member
NO NO NO NO!!!
For the first few years it was complete and utter shit! Anyone who says otherwise must think the WiiU has the best online capabilities ever.
IDK how people's memories are so short Sony dropped the ball for teh first half of last gen and were the biggest pain in the ass to work with. I still have nightmares of trying to get SCEE and SCEA to give me the same answer.
Now the past does not not dictate the future and Sony could be kick major ass this gen, but lets be real about the facts.
For me Sony has way more to prove than MS does. Sony has hardware... cool, what about the important stuff?
What could be more damaging are the ones who aren't going to boycott them for good, BUT have given up on them as their initial next-gen console of choice and will go with PS4 instead. You get enough going like that and it's probably going to be a snowball effect: more people on PS4, more people playing on PS4, more people INVESTED in PS4 and bringing in others to play with them and pay for Plus, and it gets harder for Microsoft to rebound with them and it'll be notably muted similar to how many only bother with their PS3s for exclusives.
Darklor01
Might need to stop sniffing glue
I don't think, nor do I think most of GAF thinks that the system is screwed based off of what I keep reading here.
I'm pretty sure some or most people will wind up with both eventually. Exclusive 1st year titles for the other system will be discount titles for later adopters, which will make them happy. The only major hindrance to this I can see might be budget issues, people who do not want to pay for two service subscriptions, or just don't want to for some reason.
Both systems will have games people want to play. MS isn't likely going to back down on their investments, and in the end, both systems will wind up going strong barring a major blunder. I got four Xbox 360 units over the life of the generation as they failed RROD over and over. Since I had a PS3, and still wanted to use the XBOX Live service over Sony's online, I kept on getting another box.
If Sony's online service is lacking, XB1 sales will increase as well. I barely used the Sony Online services beyond streaming a movie or downloading a game/demo.
For the record I am getting a PS4 first(and maybe only)
I'm pretty sure some or most people will wind up with both eventually. Exclusive 1st year titles for the other system will be discount titles for later adopters, which will make them happy. The only major hindrance to this I can see might be budget issues, people who do not want to pay for two service subscriptions, or just don't want to for some reason.
Both systems will have games people want to play. MS isn't likely going to back down on their investments, and in the end, both systems will wind up going strong barring a major blunder. I got four Xbox 360 units over the life of the generation as they failed RROD over and over. Since I had a PS3, and still wanted to use the XBOX Live service over Sony's online, I kept on getting another box.
If Sony's online service is lacking, XB1 sales will increase as well. I barely used the Sony Online services beyond streaming a movie or downloading a game/demo.
For the record I am getting a PS4 first(and maybe only)
This is why I don't think that Microsoft has the USA market won automatically with the Xbox One.
Typically speaking, i f a product is going to be a breakout success, it needs the support of the early adopters and opinion leaders. 90% of the general public knows shit about video games and video game consoles, however, many of them still may enjoy playing games. This is where the opinion leaders come in. If they hear from their gamer friends that XBONE sucks and PS4 is teh best, they will just get a PS4, especially considering it is much less expensive. However, if the games of the XBONE really appeal to the opinion leaders, it will be just fine.
i mean if you want to try to act like it's currently not "trouble: 98% certainty", then sure. It's "might." If it helps anyone sleep at night
But everyone who says "wait till MS can drop the price" are forgetting that Sony will simply be doing the same thing. Both systems will become cheaper to produce over time and so MS has a problem where they may never reach price parity with Sony.
NullPointer
Member
It could still get worse too. I'd still like more finalized details on the OS and Gold.
José Mourinho
cocknose
MS have delivered their message -- whatever it was -- in the messiest way possible, that's for all to see. But a good dose of marketing and some games should remedy that. Which let's be honest, they'll have in spades.
To talk about which platform has the better exclusive is largely pointless because it's a subjective thing. I personally can't think of a PS4 exclusive I like the look of. But I can appreciate how important they are to the platform and how they will draw particular consumers in.
Web polls I put little faith in because whilst there might be 100,000+ votes on each, chances are that most of these are crossover votes from the other polls. These sort of sites will attract the same audiences -- core gamers -- which is why you see a correlation among them. At least in my opinion, that makes sense. MS's bad PR might well have filtered down to the general pubic, but I don't think it's as wide spread as many here want to believe. And I don't think average Joe consumer is hunting down web polls to assert his stance.
Ultimately I do think enough damage has been done that Sony should have a comfortable lead out of the gate. Core folks who were upset will jump ship to Sony and possible take quite a few friends with them. But 3 or maybe 4:1 is crazy talk as far as I'm concerned.
Also, why anybody would want to see the Xbox One fail is beyond me. The worst scenario possible would be to have one company with so much market dominance that they basically run the show and can afford to do whatever they please because they're effectively the only real option.
To talk about which platform has the better exclusive is largely pointless because it's a subjective thing. I personally can't think of a PS4 exclusive I like the look of. But I can appreciate how important they are to the platform and how they will draw particular consumers in.
Web polls I put little faith in because whilst there might be 100,000+ votes on each, chances are that most of these are crossover votes from the other polls. These sort of sites will attract the same audiences -- core gamers -- which is why you see a correlation among them. At least in my opinion, that makes sense. MS's bad PR might well have filtered down to the general pubic, but I don't think it's as wide spread as many here want to believe. And I don't think average Joe consumer is hunting down web polls to assert his stance.
Ultimately I do think enough damage has been done that Sony should have a comfortable lead out of the gate. Core folks who were upset will jump ship to Sony and possible take quite a few friends with them. But 3 or maybe 4:1 is crazy talk as far as I'm concerned.
Also, why anybody would want to see the Xbox One fail is beyond me. The worst scenario possible would be to have one company with so much market dominance that they basically run the show and can afford to do whatever they please because they're effectively the only real option.
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