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June 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 12th

D

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD June 2016 retail period (May 29-July 2, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, July 19th (HW results came out like normal (unfortunately), so predictions closed on Thursday, July 14, when they did). Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 29-July 2, 2016 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, July 21st @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in June:
XB1 price drop to $299 (May 31-June 13) - 14 days
XB1 Slim @ $299 announced for August release (June 13) - 20 days
XBScorpio announced for 2017 (June 13) - 20 days
XB1 price drop to $279 (June 14-July 10) - 19 days

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

May's Results (used for predictions)
Aquamarine @ Gamrconnect/VGC per NPD said:
PS4 - 207.3k
XB1 - 107.1k
WIU - 25.3k
Click to expand...
3DS
Callahan (analyst) via Venturebeat said:
"While hardware sales decreased by 10 percent overall, the majority of the decline in sales stemmed from portables, down $7.3 million and last-generation hardware, down $5 million,” said Callahan.
Click to expand...
and May-2015's 3DS was "~97K," for reference.

May 2015 NPD thread
June 2015 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
O

Opt1kon_

Member
[3DS] 78K
[PS4] 242K
[WIU] 20K
[XB1] 126K


Somewhat dry month, however I believe The that maybe the good folks at Microsoft Can pull a win for Late August into Early September (sept NPD) for the Xbox one S and the price drop for the OG Xbox1 doesn't seem to be pushing units unless I'm looking in the wrong places


Also very enticing Games lineup for both systems leading into the Holiday "PRE-GAME" season
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
donny2112 said:
Potential hardware impacting events in June:
PS4 Neo announced for 2016 (June 10) - 23 days
Click to expand...

lol wut? That didn't happen, it wasn't even a proper announcement that would have impacting events, it was literally mentioned in a sentence on an interview.

[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 150K
[3DS] 85K
[WIU] 25k

I expect XB1 to have a good drop these coming months because of XB1 S and Scorpio announcement.
 
R

Rymuth

Member
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 175K
[3DS] 80K
[WIU] 25K

Crazy Ass Predictions (in memoriam of Rex)

* Mirror's Edge Catalyst charts quite higher than expected
 
C

Conduit

Banned
To OP :

Xbox Memorial Day deals are still active since May!

Conduit said:
This post is from NPD May Predictions thread.

Anyway, looks like deals are still on.

The first one for 320$ :

https://www.microsoftstore.com/stor...2459594)(qcLRzjFniJE-A1FG_2KowBnBJ0MGhKTEBQ)()

Now with 50$ Gift card. Damn!
Click to expand...

Microsoft Napalm sale today:

Microsoft Store is offering a very strong Xbox One sale during their Memorial Day sales event. In this special promotion, eight Xbox One bundles are getting discounts up to $80 off, an extra free Xbox One wireless controller plus a free Ubisoft game of your choice.



The best deal in our opinion is 1TB Xbox One Spring Bundle, discounted by $80 to $319.99 plus a free controller and the aforementioned game. While the freebie game choices aren’t anything special, an extra title is an extra title. The next best bundle is the 1TB Rainbow Six Siege bundle, and finally everything else is getting a $50 only discount (include the more recent 1TB The Division bundle).


free choice.



Xbox One Memorial Day Sale MSRP % Off Sale Price
Xbox One 1TB Spring + Free Controller & Game $399.99 20% $319
Xbox One 1TB Six Siege + Free Controller & Game $399.99 20% $319
Xbox One 1TB The Division + Free Controller & Game $399.99 13% $349.99
Xbox One with Kinect + Free Controller & Game $499 30% $349
Xbox One Elite + Free Controller & Game $499 10% $449
Xbox One “Name Game” + Free Controller & Game $349.99 14% $299.99
Xbox One LEGO Movie + Free Controller & Game $349.99 15% $299
Xbox One GOW Ultimate + Free Controller & Game $349.99 15% $299


No expiration is noted by Microsoft :

http://www.siliconera.com/2016/05/3...r-game-memorial-day-sale/#G2hQwA1VlMW7bIdV.99
Click to expand...

Anyway :

[PS4] 230K
[XB1] 140K
[3DS] 70K
[WIU] 30K
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
[3DS] 79K
[PS4] 245k
[WIU] 29k
[XB1] 145k

I guess a lot of this month depends on how well the Microsoft fire sale worked in relation to the slump that will come from people waiting for the new hardware. I will adjust once we get our retailers' input.
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
Opt1kon_ said:
[3DS] 78K
[PS4] 242K
[WIU] 20K
[XB1] 126K


Somewhat dry month, however I believe The that maybe the good folks at Microsoft Can pull a win for Late August into Early September (sept NPD) for the Xbox one S and the price drop for the OG Xbox1 doesn't seem to be pushing units unless I'm looking in the wrong places


Also very enticing Games lineup for both systems leading into the Holiday "PRE-GAME" season
Click to expand...


[3DS] 75k
[PS4] 235k
[WIU] 40k
[XB1] 110k

OG Xbox One sells are going to tank June/July and I thought XO might win August because of several months of preorders but now I'm not so sure. Xbox One S dropped hard on Amazon out of the top 50! Also August has No Man's Sky for PS4 and no noteworthy software on XO.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Blackleg-sanji1 said:
Not a thing that will effect the charts in anyway.

Atelier Sophie
Grand kingdom
Odin sphere
Mirrors edge C
Star ocean V
Click to expand...

Technomancer as well. And yeah, you're right. None of those are going to really shake up the charts, though I bought Grand Kingdom, Odin Sphere and Star Ocean.

All right. So.

PS4 easy win for this month. The discounted options on the XB1 were really hit or miss, nothing really all that impressive in terms of changing their stars.

The announcement of the Scorpio has led to some questions, but the fact that it's a Friggin' year and a half away and there's no actual information about it has mostly had customers scratching their heads on the idea more than anything at this point. I haven't had anyone say "Man, I really want to buy an XB1, but with the Scorpio a year and a half away, I just can't do it" yet, as that's pretty much a GAF perspective.

Now the XB1 S is more interesting, because we're taking preorders for it... And it's caused some confusion. There's still no concrete release date for the actual cheaper model, and most people that were initially interested didn't want the 2TB model. There's still more than a few preorders accruing for the 2TB, but those are almost exclusively existing owners, planning on trading in their existing models.

I'll be interested to see how it pans out, with it being a more expensive launch model. It hasn't seemed to tank core system interest just yet.
 
D

donny2112

Member
bombshell said:
This didn't happen (the year part)
Click to expand...
Sangetsu-II said:
lol wut? That didn't happen, it wasn't even a proper announcement that would have impacting events, it was literally mentioned in a sentence on an interview.
Click to expand...

K. Knew something was said about it, but wasn't clear how much. There are rumors now for September, but official announcements have more impact than offhand comments or rumors. Taken out.

Thanks!
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Hey, it’s that time of the month again! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of May and June. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because June is a 5 week month while May is only 4. I’ve also gathered software sales and potential hardware deals to give a bigger scope of how and why June performs better than May, in addition to the fact that June is when summer begins for US students.

Code: 
2010

Xbox 360 May: 194,600 / 4 = 48,650
Xbox 360 June: 451,700 / 5 = 90,340

Weekly average up 86%

Xbox 360 May: 194,600 / 4 = 48,650
Xbox 360 June (Without S): 271K / 5 = 54,200

Weekly average up 11%

PS3 May: 154,500 / 4 = 38,625
PS3 June: 304,800 / 5 = 60,960

Weekly average up 58%

Wii May: 334,800 / 4 = 83,700
Wii June: 422,500 / 5 = 84,500

Weekly average up 1%

Code: 
Notable Releases in June

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Xbox 360 Slim 250GB $299 [180,700]
Price cut: 120GB elite model $249 [3 weeks]
Price cut: Arcade model $149 [158,100] [3 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
Stock Issues fixed from earlier in the year.

Code: 
2011

Xbox 360 May: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Xbox 360 June: 507K / 5 = 101,400

Weekly average up 50%

PS3 May: 175K / 4 = 43,750
PS3 June: 276K / 5 = 55,200

Weekly average up 26%

Wii May: 236K / 4 = 59,000
Wii June: 273K / 5 = 54,600

Weekly average down 7%

Code: 
Notable Releases in June

[u]PS3[/u]
inFAMOUS 2 [4 weeks] [369,200]

Code: 
2012

Xbox 360 May: 160K / 4 = 40,000
Xbox 360 June: 257K / 5 = 51,400

Weekly average up 29%

PS3 May: 125K / 4 = 31,250
PS3 June: 188K / 5 = 37,600

Weekly average up 20%

Wii May: 71k / 4 = 17,750
Wii June: 95k / 5 = 19,000

Weekly average up 7%

Code: 
Notable Releases in June

N/A

Code: 
2013

Xbox 360 May: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Xbox 360 June: 140K / 5 = 28,000

Weekly average down 2%

PS3 May: 85k / 4 = 21,250
PS3 June: 109K / 5 = 21,800

Weekly average up 3%

Wii May: 36k / 4 = 9,000
Wii June: 53k / 5 = 10,600

Weekly average up 18%

Wii U May: 33k / 4 = 8,250
Wii U June: 42k / 5 = 8,400

Weekly average up 2%

Code: 
Notable Releases in June

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Minecraft [5 weeks] [>350k]

[u]PS3[/u]
The Last of Us [4 weeks] [985,000]

Code: 
2014

Xbox 360 May: 57k / 4 = 14,250
Xbox 360 June: 62k / 5 = 12,400

Weekly average down 13%

Xbox One May: 77k / 4 = 19,250
Xbox One June: 197K / 5 = 39,400

Weekly average up 105%

PS3 May: 36k / 4 = 9,000
PS3 June: 42k / 5 = 8,400

Weekly average down 7%

PS4 May: 197K / 4 = 49,250
PS4 June: 269K / 5 = 53,800

Weekly average up 9%

Wii May: 11K / 4 = 2,750
Wii June: 10K / 5 = 2,000

Weekly average down 27%

Wii U May: 61k / 4 = 15,250
Wii U June: 140K / 5 = 28,000

Weekly average up 84%

Code: 
Notable Releases in June

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Kinectless SKU $399 [4 weeks] [108k]
EA Sports UFC [3 weeks] [118,000]

[u]PS4[/u]
EA Sports UFC [3 weeks] [160,000]

Code: 
2015

Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and no numbers have leaked for some of 2015) 

Xbox One May: 139,600 / 4 = 34,900
Xbox One June: 297K / 5 = 59,400

Weekly average up 70%

PS4 May: 152,700 / 4 = 38,175
PS4 June: 365K / 5 = 73,000

Weekly average up 91%

Wii U May: 42,700 / 4 = 10,675
Wii U June: 70k / 5 = 14,000

Weekly average up 31%

Code: 
Notable Releases in June

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards Xbox One [1 week]

1TB SKU $399 [3 weeks]

Batman Arkham Knight [2 weeks] / 1 free game with an Xbox One purchase [Week of Batman launch]

[u]PS4[/u]
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards PS4 [1 week]

Batman Arkham Knight [2 weeks]

Batman: Arkham Knight 500GB Bundle $399 [2 weeks]

Batman: Arkham Knight 500GB Limited Bundle $449 [2 weeks] [121k]

Code: 
2016 May Weekly averages

Xbox One: 107,100 / 4 = 26,775 (Or one full month of Wii U sales lol)
PS4: 207,300 / 4 = 51,825
Wii U: 25,300 / 4 = 6,325

Some notes:

- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x42aPmtnVDg

- The average weekly rise from May to June is out there for Xbox. During the 360 era (looking at 2010 - 14), the average rise is ~30% thanks to 2010 and 2011 having the Slim + Kinect effect, and is then brought down by 2013 and 2014 being drops. Removing the Slim launch from June 2010, the average drops to a ~15% rise MoM. The Xbox One as well has so far had massive hardware impacting events happen in both June’s it has been in, with the Kinectless SKU in 2014 and the 1TB model in 2015 (which helped move 79% more consoles in week 3 compared to week 2 https://twitter.com/aarongreenberg/status/621820362502737924). This year’s June, there were two price drops, the first being at the beginning of the month:

$50 price cut to all bundles
1TB bundles an extra $30 price cut

And the second right after E3:

500GB $279
Kinect bundle $279
1TB $299
Elite model $349

Having 3 SKU’s under $300 should help push sales in Summer, but there is also that S model that no one knows the release date for, so whether that has any effect has yet to be seen.

Playstation also has some outliers with June 2010 being a stock fixing month and June 2015 having the Batman bundles. With those, the average is ~29%, and without those plus the one time the average dropped, it’s ~15%. Uncharted just launched in May and it helped move 51k bundles, so it is possible that the weekly average could drop again, but how much would probably be miniscule.

Nintendo and Summer surprisingly don’t mix at all. The Wii had an average drop of 2% between 2010 and 2014 and the Wii U has been riding on late May releases (Mario Kart and Splatoon) into June. The Wii U doesn’t have something like that this year, so removing the two outliers, Nintendo drops ~1% going into June, and because the stock situation is going to get even worse for the console, it’ll most likely have an even worse drop.

- The biggest June ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 666,700 back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 507k back in 2011.
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
Abdiel said:
Now the XB1 S is more interesting, because we're taking preorders for it... And it's caused some confusion. There's still no concrete release date for the actual cheaper model, and most people that were initially interested didn't want the 2TB model. There's still more than a few preorders accruing for the 2TB, but those are almost exclusively existing owners, planning on trading in their existing models.
Click to expand...

I knew stuff like that would happen. They should of given a proper date for the cheaper consoles at the announcement, but they want to actually sell those 2TB models unhampered by people waiting.

But people are almost always willing to wait if they can save $100.

edit: ah jeez, last year was Batman, no way hw sales live up to those.
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
Javin98 said:
That's the problem, I don't remember anything significant as well. For some reason, if there is one, it's completely slipping my mind.
Click to expand...

Then yep, I can see Uncharted still being in top 3.

Wasn't GTAV on sale? will likely be in top 3 and with Minecraft

j/k


or am I?
 
J

Javin98

Banned
watdaeff4 said:
Then yep, I can see Uncharted still being in top 3.

Wasn't GTAV on sale? will likely be in top 3 and with Minecraft

j/k


or am I?
Click to expand...
Oh, please no. That would be so boring for the software charts. I wonder if Overwatch will outsell Uncharted 4 in June, though.
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
Javin98 said:
Oh, please no. That would be so boring for the software charts. I wonder if Overwatch will outsell Uncharted 4 in June, though.
Click to expand...

I would imagine Overwatch does, likely will be #1 unless I'm missing something obvious.

Lego Star Wars also I'm guess will be top 5 even though coming out on the 28th
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Ryng_tolu said:
OverWatch will be first, easy.
Click to expand...

watdaeff4 said:
I would imagine Overwatch does, likely will be #1 unless I'm missing something obvious.

Lego Star Wars also I'm guess will be top 5 even though coming out on the 28th
Click to expand...
Are we really expecting Overwatch to have such good legs? Also, I thought sales were more slanted towards digital than most other titles? Then again, it released at the end of May and a large portion of sales will be counted for June.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Javin98 said:
Are we really expecting Overwatch to have such good legs? Also, I thought sales were more slanted towards digital than most other titles? Then again, it released at the end of May and a large portion of sales will be counted for June.
Click to expand...

It sold well over 400K in May, and will most likely do even more in June, possible +500K.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
OverWatch will be first, easy.
Click to expand...

I think it will be close between UC4, Doom and Overwatch. Doom has spent the majority of the month on sale and they had a free demo. Overwatch has not had any major sales outside of a small Newegg deal. All 3 should be sub 350K for the month.
 
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