That could be the case, but I think we still have a good 2 months before there are a million Switches in Japan.
XV is very very close, I don't know if it crossed just yet, I think it is still a few thousand off the mark, but it's hard to say.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
That could be the case, but I think we still have a good 2 months before there are a million Switches in Japan.
XV is very very close, I don't know if it crossed just yet, I think it is still a few thousand off the mark, but it's hard to say.
I agree
Mk8 can't sell 1 million copies for awhile while splatoon will probably benefit from a wider install Base and by a more front loaded number to win that internal "race"
25./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800) - 2.490 / 968.457 <80-100%>
I know that it misses the digital sales but it's fine to talk about million-seller in the context of Famitsu/Media Create considering the thread we are in.
I don't think it's crazy that Minecraft might sell over a million on the Switch in 2017 in Japan. Lets be real conservative and say that there is 4 million Switch owners by the end of the year only 1/4 would have to buy Minecraft for it to reach 1 million. Minecraft is a big title for kids and was the major reason why someone would purchase a Vita and the secondary reason to buy a Wii U since it's release
I see the correlation between a franchise popular with a younger audience doing well during December or other vacation months. I can see this franchise doing even better on a platform that is more popular among young kids than either Vita or the Wii U. I still don't understand people who doubt Minecraft - especially when we've seen how well it has done on the Vita/Wii U despite a handful of big games(Splatoon/SMM on the Wii U or DQ:Builders on the Vita). We've already seen SMM on the 3DS sell more than the Wii U version in a couple of months, DQ: Builders is probably getting ported at some point. Switch is going to be a device that most kids in Japan will want these holidays and Splatoon 2, MK8D and Minecraft are three major games that will be ready for summer vacation.
thestopsign
Member
It was also all the Vita had software wise. That said, this may sound like I am contradicting what I just said, but I really don't agree with how you equate the sales of a game in a certain week directly with new buyers. There is some correlation, but it is certainly not 1:1 or even close to it. Then there is a second jump that the same thing is going to apply on a completely different system under different circumstances.
thestopsign
Member
I don't doubt any of the titles you have talked about ever. I think they will all do well, in some cases incredibly well. Just not quite at the magnitude you think they will, because honestly just about all of your predictions would be unprecedented.
frankie_baby
Member
I think maybe 2 million for switch minecraft might be an acheivable goal but will take many years to reach that
Y-Z
Member
I wouldn't say 4 million is conservative at the end of this year. That's a lot of consoles sold.
Gotdatmoney
Member
The Switches price is going to be what limits Minecraft. The audience for that game skew young and the Switch is still pretty expensive. I mean the WiiU is still expensive but point remains for the game to take off the Switch will probably need to be cheaper. But it is a slow burn series in the same notion so it will be successful. Its just a matter of how fast the adoption occurs.
Source?
While it is expensive, children are encouraged to save money, and they do get a considerable amount for graduations, birthdays, New Years, and other holidays.
So, there are actually some games that aren't branded that do well, but given what they are, along with the presence of all Chinese language games ranking well on the US App Store, I feel I can't genuinely assert that it's Americans playing them (and am actually very suspicious that a large portion are people from China and SEA who use the US app store).
That said, with my original statement, I was thinking more along the lines of all the branded titles that generally didn't get localized or didn't do well overseas, and that we're now seeing an uptick in localization for.
http://www.capcom.co.jp/dai-gyakuten2/trial/
Great Ace Attorney 2 demo just released. You can play it on your PC/Smartphone. No need to install
Great Ace Attorney 2 demo just released. You can play it on your PC/Smartphone. No need to install
That's what retailers blogs said at launch, Switch main buyers are people around 20s, university students and young workers. I doubt the situation changed until now.
Anyway, Media Creare will release the White Book with the Switch buyers profile on May, for more information.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Yeah. Time to reach 4 million by Famitsu's count
DS: 54 weeks
Wii: 54 weeks
3DS: 44 weeks
EDIT: To be more fair, those all boil down to "After the first year-end holiday season post-launch." which helps explain why 3DS got there first. By the time they'd each reached the end of that holiday season, they were all well over 4m by at least hundreds of thousands.
gamesmaya
Every year there new titles in April. This year the lineup is weak and with this lineup PS4 body can not be pulled.
All depend on Switch. High school and college students, weak market until now with Nintendo, are on the rise. Splatoon 2 release date announcement was big.
Like Wii U, she sees the possibilitty for Splatoon 2 bundle, time will show if it happens later.
Every year there new titles in April. This year the lineup is weak and with this lineup PS4 body can not be pulled.
All depend on Switch. High school and college students, weak market until now with Nintendo, are on the rise. Splatoon 2 release date announcement was big.
Like Wii U, she sees the possibilitty for Splatoon 2 bundle, time will show if it happens later.
Jon Carter
Member
I think he means regarding Splatoon 2.
Switch is selling due to Splatton 2 hype, I think is safe to assume that people who are purchasing the console now are the ones who want to buy Splatoon 2.
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
Switch going 15k up n famitsu last week looks weird to me. Are you sure it's not a typo chris? Anyways thank you for doing this every week!
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Last week Famitsu adjusted Switch down for the end of the fiscal year. Now they went back to normal numbers.
This is pretty inline with all your other predictions.I admire your consistency.
BronzeWolf
Banned
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Not even officially open for preorder yet nationwide goddamn...
Yeah I know its a small sample size, etc., but the original finished with 147 points and Splatoon 2 is at 87 3 months out from release..
Hero of Legend
Member
Wow, and it's only been up for 3 days unofficially?
lol.
whyamihere
Banned
Herb Alpert
Banned
That ranking is way off base, no way will FF7R sell more than DQ11. Splatoon 2 will be more than FF7R
But less than DQ11.
Honest question, since this is by default the thread where discussions about Japanese development fit the best, but this is something I've been wondering the past few days: are we expecting a brand new Mario & Sonic to appear this year?
Next February is the Pyeongchang 2018 Winter Olympics will take place, and usually this means that a M&S should make an appearance on shelves in the next few months. Given how the games are usually released a bit before the actual sport events, that would make a Fall / Holiday release a pretty good fit for the game. Also, if it's going to happen, I'm expecting it to be a Switch/Nintendo 3DS release, the classic dual release: the only exception to the rule was the last Winter Olympics game, M&S @ Sochi 2014, but I suppose they won't try that again (the game bombed horribly everywhere). But do we have any idea if the Nintendo/Sega/CIO partnership is still on? Or if there are specific details that would allow a Winter Olympics game to miss the schedule? I can see a scenario where the different parties decide to forfeit the Winter Olympics game to focus all their attentions to the next Olympics game, for Tokyo 2020, in order to create a game that can recapture at least part of the audience that made the first games big successes but that failed to show up enough for the latest iterations: M&S at Rio Olympics 2016 did fine in Japan, but Western numbers were quite low, I believe, and that's what could bring a decision to focus resources on Tokyo 2020. Your thoughts on the matter? Also, posting Famitsu numbers for a Japanese context (source: Gamedatalibrary).
WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 67.054 594.157 Nintendo 11/22/2007
NDS Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 90.793 383.558 Nintendo 1/17/2008
3DS Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games 44.024 268.480 Nintendo 2/18/2016
NDS Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games 25.663 254.341 Nintendo 11/19/2009
3DS Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games 46.357 236.480 Nintendo 3/1/2012
WII Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games 24.330 221.542 Nintendo 12/8/2011
WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games 24.476 194.916 Nintendo 11/5/2009
WIU Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games 21.041 124.784 Nintendo 6/23/2016
WIU Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games 5.149 51.341 Nintendo 12/5/2013
Next February is the Pyeongchang 2018 Winter Olympics will take place, and usually this means that a M&S should make an appearance on shelves in the next few months. Given how the games are usually released a bit before the actual sport events, that would make a Fall / Holiday release a pretty good fit for the game. Also, if it's going to happen, I'm expecting it to be a Switch/Nintendo 3DS release, the classic dual release: the only exception to the rule was the last Winter Olympics game, M&S @ Sochi 2014, but I suppose they won't try that again (the game bombed horribly everywhere). But do we have any idea if the Nintendo/Sega/CIO partnership is still on? Or if there are specific details that would allow a Winter Olympics game to miss the schedule? I can see a scenario where the different parties decide to forfeit the Winter Olympics game to focus all their attentions to the next Olympics game, for Tokyo 2020, in order to create a game that can recapture at least part of the audience that made the first games big successes but that failed to show up enough for the latest iterations: M&S at Rio Olympics 2016 did fine in Japan, but Western numbers were quite low, I believe, and that's what could bring a decision to focus resources on Tokyo 2020. Your thoughts on the matter? Also, posting Famitsu numbers for a Japanese context (source: Gamedatalibrary).
WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 67.054 594.157 Nintendo 11/22/2007
NDS Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 90.793 383.558 Nintendo 1/17/2008
3DS Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games 44.024 268.480 Nintendo 2/18/2016
NDS Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games 25.663 254.341 Nintendo 11/19/2009
3DS Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games 46.357 236.480 Nintendo 3/1/2012
WII Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games 24.330 221.542 Nintendo 12/8/2011
WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games 24.476 194.916 Nintendo 11/5/2009
WIU Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games 21.041 124.784 Nintendo 6/23/2016
WIU Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games 5.149 51.341 Nintendo 12/5/2013
thestopsign
Member
I think that ranking was specifically for PS4 skus. So Splatoon 2 should outsell everything in that ranking handily.
mpl, I think some version of Mario & Sonic is likely for this year. I don't see them skipping out on the 2018 games and the Switch is a good system match. They already have assets for both a Switch (from Wii U) and a 3DS version that they can reuse.
It was also posted by someone who's currently in a mission from God (and FFVIIR > everything else highlights this fact), so we shouldn't treat it as a reference for anything, not even PS4 specific rankings
Mr. Pointy
Member
I imagine Sega could just port assets from the Wii U Winter Olympics game over to Switch, reskin a few things for Pyeongchang and call it a day while spending the majority of the time on the Tokyo game. Wouldn't be worth bothering with a 3DS game.
frankie_baby
Member
I'm thinking there'll be one, it'll fill a niche currently underserved by the announced line up though maybe nintendo have other ideas
Ah, that makes sense. The inclusion of MH5 in that ranking threw me off.
Mr. Pointy
Member
Eh. I think Splatoon 2 was always going to get bigger pre order numbers than DQXI. But I think DQXI (combined total across the 3 systems) will outsell it.
Splatoon 2 will still finish up around 3+ million LTD.
Splatoon 2 will still finish up around 3+ million LTD.
Sammy Samusu
Member
And Splatoon pre orders will continue to grow as more Switches are sold.
Perfect storm for Nintendo really.
why?
- It has a tiny install base.
- It's known to be leggy unlike JRPGs which are front loaded.
- And people definitely didn't expect it to have bigger preorders than 3DS DQ11, which won't end up that way.