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Media Create Sales: Week 22, 2017 (May 29 - Jun 04)

C

casiopao

Member
schuelma said:
people have insane expectations of a new IP launching on a userbase of 900K
Click to expand...

That would also mean a total failure on Nintendo side to actually do a better product which could sell rather than making a bomba product.

ARMS had huge push like Nintendo. I don't think it is insane for both Nintendo and many people to believe that 150k+ FW should be possible especially when Test Punch also had happen.
 
K

ksamedi

Member
Arms is the kind of title that sells 75k launch and still sells 75 weekly in holiday periods. The launch is absolutely not indicitave of the potential. Lets see how it holds up a month from now.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
casiopao said:
That would also mean a total failure on Nintendo side to actually do a better product which could sell rather than making a bomba product.

ARMS had huge push like Nintendo. I don't think it is insane for both Nintendo and many people to believe that 150k+ FW should be possible especially when Test Punch also had happen.
Click to expand...

What? Come on. Not every single new IP launch ends up being Splatoon. And I'd remind you and others we're still 4 days away from launch.
 
G

Gradivus

Member
casiopao said:
That would also mean a total failure on Nintendo side to actually do a better product which could sell rather than making a bomba product.

ARMS had huge push like Nintendo. I don't think it is insane for both Nintendo and many people to believe that 150k+ FW should be possible especially when Test Punch also had happen.
Click to expand...

Splatoon only did 145k on a 2.35 million userbase while Arms will have less than half of that userbase by its launch time.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
It's ultimately a fighting game, which is why I said a few weeks ago that I really didn't know how it would do in Japan, since bombing or a moderate result seemed equally plausibly.

It also stuck out to me that I saw vastly less Japanese names in the Test Punch than in the Test Fire, but didn't want to go in too hard on that in case they were doing closer location based matchmaking.
 
S

Sammy Samusu

Member
casiopao said:
Damn thats ARMS YSO predictions is literally bomba on epic proposition. O_O
Click to expand...
Are we looking at the same prediction?

70k would be pretty good for ARMS.

I don't see it becoming the next Splatoon though like some people are hoping for. I'm thinking somewhere around 250k LTD if that.

But I don't know shit.
 
V

Vena

Member
Nirolak said:
It's ultimately a fighting game, which is why I said a few weeks ago that I really didn't know how it would do in Japan, since bombing or a moderate result seemed equally plausibly.

It also stuck out to me that I saw vastly less Japanese names in the Test Punch than in the Test Fire, but didn't want to go in too hard on that in case they were doing closer location based matchmaking.
Click to expand...

I'd say its going to end up somewhere in the middle, this would be ~30% increase over Tekken 7 (and roughly 80% increase over SFV), and I'd expect ARMS to have the usual legs of most Nintendo 1st party titles but to a lesser overall scalar extent week in and week out.

So it's already performing above the current crop of fighters, more a question of where it will end up in the long run. If it opens at 75k, its going to most certainly end well into the 150k+.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I feel one of the notable differences between ARMS and Splatoon is that Japan was showing continual interest in first person shooters (Call of Duty, Battlefield, Destiny) and third person shooters (Uncharted, or even similar games like GTA, Resident Evil 4-6, and MGS4 and 5), but Japan delivered very few of those, and almost none of them with a competitive multiplayer setup.

Splatoon came in and filled the void with a Japanese made competitive third person shooter that had an accessible and relatable aesthetic, and a flagship game mode that worked really well for people who had almost no experience with shooters.

With ARMS, the fighting game genre is something that has existed in Japan for ages (with most games in it being made by Japanese developers), and there wasn't a clear sign that anyone was still looking for experiences like this given how almost every game in the genre is selling.

We can also look at Minecraft and Terraria being followed up by a majorly successful Dragon Quest Builders for another example of a company seeing an opening for a locally made game, and successfully capitalizing on that. However, the key here is that there was demand, but not perfect domestic product. That's just not true of ARMS' genre.
 
J

Jon Carter

Member
Sammy Samusu said:
Are we looking at the same prediction?

70k would be pretty good for ARMS.

I don't see it becoming the next Splatoon though like some people are hoping for. I'm thinking somewhere around 250k LTD if that.

But I don't know shit.
Click to expand...

250k LTD would be a failure. This is a heavily-advertised, family-friendly multiplayer game from the Mario Kart team that will receive free DLC over time, and it has motion controls. They didn't greenlight it for 250k copies sold.

But I don't think a 70k first week would necessarily spell doom. I would expect 100k, but it's clearly meant to be an evergreen title. I think they'd be happy with 500k LTD in Japan.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
70, 100 or 140k opening, LTD is the only thing that matters.

But it was obvious from day 0 that a Splatoon isn't happening.
 
C

Crom

Junior Member
Chris1964 said:
70, 100 or 140k opening, LTD is the only thing that matters.

But it was obvious from day 0 that a Splatoon isn't happening.
Click to expand...

Arms always looked like it would do better in the West.

Splatoon didn't have a monster opening and it sold big time LTD.

Arms won't be another Splatoon but it will put up good numbers when all is said and done.

Many Nintendo games sell well over time and don't necessarily put up crazy week 1 numbers
 
K

ksamedi

Member
Nirolak said:
I feel one of the notable differences between ARMS and Splatoon is that Japan was showing continual interest in first person shooters (Call of Duty, Battlefield, Destiny) and third person shooters (Uncharted, or even similar games like GTA, Resident Evil 4-6, and MGS4 and 5), but Japan delivered very few of those, and almost none of them with a competitive multiplayer setup.

Splatoon came in and filled the void with a Japanese made competitive third person shooter that had an accessible and relatable aesthetic, and a flagship game mode that worked really well for people who had almost no experience with shooters.

With ARMS, the fighting game genre is something that has existed in Japan for ages (with most games in it being made by Japanese developers), and there wasn't a clear sign that anyone was still looking for experiences like this given how almost every game in the genre is selling.

We can also look at Minecraft and Terraria being followed up by a majorly successful Dragon Quest Builders for another example of a company seeing an opening for a locally made game, and successfully capitalizing on that. However, the key here is that there was demand, but not perfect domestic product. That's just not true of ARMS' genre.
Click to expand...

I agree with you but on the other hand I feel that the fighting genre never had a true innovation for years so it kind of declined to irrelevence. It was a majorly popular genre years ago and I have a feeling that a good product could reigite the genre. Not saying rhat that is necesarily ARMS but it could go both ways.
 
S

SporeCrawler

Member
Crom said:
Arms always looked like it would do better in the West.

Splatoon didn't have a monster opening and it sold big time LTD.

Arms won't be another Splatoon but it will put up good numbers when all is said and done.

Many Nintendo games sell well over time and don't necessarily put up crazy week 1 numbers
Click to expand...

if the whole switch shortage situation was due to nintendo stockpiling units for the arms launch then we may see the numbers being a bit inflated.
 
Z

Zedark

Member
SporeCrawler said:
if the whole switch shortage situation was due to nintendo stockpiling units for the arms launch then we may see the numbers being a bit inflated.
Click to expand...

Could be. The YSO predictions don't seem to expect an increase in stock (MK8D is <20k), so the number could be higher if there actually is a higher shipment for Switch (with some associated ARMS buyers).
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
I'd also add that ARMS is tailor made for legs- multiplayer online title, new IP, on a young userbase.
 
S

SporeCrawler

Member
Zedark said:
Could be. The YSO predictions don't seem to expect an increase in stock (MK8D is <20k), so the number could be higher if there actually is a higher shipment for Switch (with some associated ARMS buyers).
Click to expand...

well the question really is if nintendo was stockpiling or if that was just BS and switch really had severe production shortage issues. we will see.
 
M

Mory Dunz

Member
Jon Carter said:
250k LTD would be a failure. This is a heavily-advertised, family-friendly multiplayer game from the Mario Kart team that will receive free DLC over time, and it has motion controls. They didn't greenlight it for 250k copies sold.

But I don't think a 70k first week would necessarily spell doom. I would expect 100k, but it's clearly meant to be an evergreen title. I think they'd be happy with 500k LTD in Japan.
Click to expand...

.

same, not looking great, but maybe it will have legs.
I think my post from months ago said like 300k is acceptable, 400k good, and anything higher is great. But I need to check...
 
Eolz

Eolz

Member
Passose said:
oh wait, damn it
Click to expand...

Lol.

Nirolak said:
It's ultimately a fighting game, which is why I said a few weeks ago that I really didn't know how it would do in Japan, since bombing or a moderate result seemed equally plausibly.

It also stuck out to me that I saw vastly less Japanese names in the Test Punch than in the Test Fire, but didn't want to go in too hard on that in case they were doing closer location based matchmaking.
Click to expand...

This. People are thinking too much about Splatoon as an example now, but ending up like Pokken in Japan would already be fantastic for a fighting game.

edit: and this prediction would still make it sell more than Tekken.
 
LordRaptor

LordRaptor

Member
SporeCrawler said:
well the question really is if nintendo was stockpiling or if that was just BS and switch really had severe production shortage issues. we will see.
Click to expand...

Nintndo can be stockpiling AND also have sever production shortages.
If their production capacity for JP is ~200k a month, and they're stockpiling by only releasing 50% to retail channels, that still only puts an extra 100k per month per month of stockpiling into retail
 
O

Oregano

Member
Eolz said:
Lol.



This. People are thinking too much about Splatoon as an example now, but ending up like Pokken in Japan would already be fantastic for a fighting game.

edit: and this prediction would still make it sell more than Tekken.
Click to expand...

Maybe sales are directly proportionate to the resolution a game runs at kekeke
 
Å

Ōkami

Member
  1. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X - 40
  2. [SWI] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 25
  3. [PS4] Tekken 7 - 23
  4. [3DS] Monster Hunter XX - 23
  5. [SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 11
  6. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] - 10
  7. [3DS] Miitopia - 8
  8. [SWI] Seiken Densetsu Collection - 6
  9. [SWI] 1-2-Switch - 6
  10. 3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 6
  11. [PS4] NieR: Automata - 5
  12. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn - 5
  13. [SWI] Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers - 5
  14. [3DS] Digimon Universe: Appli Monsters - 5
  15. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 4
  16. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition - 4
  17. [3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia - 4
  18. [3DS] Mario Sports Superstars - 4
  19. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot - 4
  20. [PSV] Shiro to Kuro no Alice - 3
Preorders
[SWI] Splatoon 2 - 638
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time - 363
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time - 330
[PS4] Gundam Versus - 91
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 76
[SWI] Arms - 52
[PS4] Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age - 29
[3DS] The Alliance Alive - 28
[PS4] Nights of Azure 2 - 23
[PSV] Nights of Azure 2 - 23
[3DS] Etrian Mystery Dungeon 2 - 20
[PS4] New Everybody's Golf - 17
[PS4] Farpoint - 16
[3DS] Radiant Historia: Perfect Chronology - 16
[3DS] The Great Ace Attorney 2 - 15
[SWI] Monster Hunter XX Nintendo Switch ver. - 12
[3DS] The Snack World - 9
 
S

sphinx

the piano man
&#332;kami;240152348 said:
Preorders
[SWI] Splatoon 2 - 638
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time - 363
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time - 330
Click to expand...

will Splatoon surpass both DQXIs before the games are released?
 
A

Aters

Member
ksamedi said:
Arms is the kind of title that sells 75k launch and still sells 75 weekly in holiday periods. The launch is absolutely not indicitave of the potential. Lets see how it holds up a month from now.
Click to expand...

how? the game has a beta, people already know what they will get. it's not like the word of month is gonna explode after launch. Also people will have a lot of games to buy on switch in holiday and this is not the most appealing one.
 
G

ggx2ac

Member
That Xbox One X naming convention reminds me of the Wii U.

"The Wii U is for you."

Xbox One X is something about the power of X or whatever&#8203; Phil said.

I don't know, X is usually an unknown variable. Maybe they should've&#8203; went with Xbox One Infinite.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Aters said:
how? the game has a beta, people already know what they will get. it's not like the word of month is gonna explode after launch. Also people will have a lot of games to buy on switch in holiday and this is not the most appealing one.
Click to expand...

-Its a multiplayer title with replayability. Should be more immune to used market
-Its a new IP. By definition more room for growth
-Its launching on a brand new platform that will only get bigger
 
D

duckroll

Member
ksamedi said:
I agree with you but on the other hand I feel that the fighting genre never had a true innovation for years so it kind of declined to irrelevence. It was a majorly popular genre years ago and I have a feeling that a good product could reigite the genre. Not saying rhat that is necesarily ARMS but it could go both ways.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure if this is accurate when stuff like Gundam Versus and Dissidia continue to be popular. What exactly is there to reignite?
 
P

Peléo

Member
75k would be quite decent for Japan. Fighting games don't tend to sell well and I feel ARMS appeals more to the western crowd. My prediction is 300k until end of the year in Japan.
 
H

horuhe

Member
Rakuten Books Sales Ranking Week 23, 2017 (Jun 05 - Jun 11)

01./02. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo)
02./01. [PS4] Tekken 7 <FTG> (Bandai Namco)
03./04. [3DS] Monster Hunter Double Cross <ACT> (Capcom)
04./05. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
05./07. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X <ADV> (Bandai Namco)
06./03. [NSW] Seiken Densetsu Collection <RPG> (Square Enix)
07./06. [PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana <RPG> (Nihon Falcom)
08./00. [PSV] Shiro to Kuro no Alice <ADV> (Idea Factory)
09./08. [PS4] NieR: Automata <RPG> (Square Enix)
10./09. [3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia <SLG> (Nintendo)
11./18. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive)
12./14. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo)
13./20. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege <ACT> (Ubisoft)
14./13. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo <ETC> (Nintendo)
15./21. [3DS] Mario Sports Superstars <SPT> (Nintendo)
16./24. [3DS] Pro Baseball Famista Climax <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games)
17./25. [NSW] 1-2-Switch <ETC> (Nintendo)
18./17. [WiiU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
19./22. [3DS] Pokemon Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
20./23. [3DS] Pokemon Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)

Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking Week 23, 2017 (Jun 05 - Jun 11)

01./01. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time <RPG> (Square Enix)
02./03. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time <RPG> (Square Enix)
03./02. [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo)
04./05. [NSW] ARMS <ACT> (Nintendo)
05./08. [PS4] Gundam Versus: Premium G (Sound Edition) <ACT> (Bandai Namco)
06./12. [PS4] New Hot Shots Golf <SPT> (Sony Interactive)
07./09. [3DS] The Great Ace Attorney 2: The Resolve of Ry&#363;nosuke Naruhod&#333; <ADV> (Capcom)
08./04. [NSW] Monster Hunter Double Cross <ACT> (Capcom)
09./07. [PS4] Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age <RPG> (Square Enix)
10./00. [NSW] Pokkén Tournament DX <FTG> (Pokémon Co.)

Rakuten Books Ranking Week 22, 2017 (May 29 - Jun 04)

***WARNING***

* Note: Games on the Rakuten Books Rankings are ONLY based on sales at Rakuten Books and does NOT count games sold by other retailers at Rakuten.
** Note 2: Games on the Pre-Orders Ranking are counted as net sales, so it might possibly affect the games listed on the Sales Ranking, since those sales are NOT added afterwards.
 
S

Sammy Samusu

Member
Only Nintendo can have a successful console with NO third-party support.

I don't know if that's good or bad.
DEi4kM9.gif
 
S

Skullwaker

Member
75k would be a good enough FW for Arms, especially considering the install base will only be around a million by the time it launches, whereas the Wii U had sold over 2m when Splatoon launched I believe. I would've liked for Arms to debut the same as Splatoon (~150k) but yeah, I've never believed that it would sell as much LT. And I don't think 250k would be a failure in Japan at all; I think it would be pretty good actually. 500k would be exceptional.
 
V

Vena

Member
Given the news surrounding Minecraft, I guess we know it isn't SE segregating its player base on DQX for PS4. (Probably still their decision to make it more expensive, though.)
 
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