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Wkd BO 06•30-07•02•17 - Audiences want the D3, don't put Baby in corner but 2nd,

FTF

Member
I fully expect Ragnarok to have the best Box Office result of any of the Thor films (mainly because I think its going to be the highest quality one) but even still $750 is the max ceiling I see for it.

I mean it's not hard to beat $205m dom, but I agree with others it's primed to break out (if it's good).
 
I mean it's not hard to beat $205m dom, but I agree with others it's primed to break out (if it's good).

Same I expect it to "break out" as well. 750 with a worse overseas exchange rate would still be a very good result. Maybe I'm underestimating it and I hope so as I'm always down to see comic book movies doing big numbers.
 

kswiston

Member
I look forward to Waititi making a film that is very much in line with his storytelling sensibilities, and then having people in the film OT claim in it another soulless, cookie cutter MCU project that will be forgotten in 6 months.
 
I look forward to Waititi making a film that is very much in line with his storytelling sensibilities, and then having people in the film OT claim in it another soulless, cookie cutter MCU project that will be forgotten in 6 months.

The yin-and-yang of Marvel movies is half the people doing that, half the people claiming it's groundbreaking and the best Marvel movie yet, and then starting the cycle all over with the next movie.
 
Here's the collection of Spider-Man predictions:
$115m domestic weekend for Spidey.

I guess 120 million opening weekend then

$116,844,115


$120M OW Dom
$345M Dom
$805M Tot

Opening weekend DOM: 111m
Total DOM: 303m

Total WW: 888m

$117m OW
$322m DOM
$875m WW

Spiderman will open at 125 million dollars

$150m OW
$400m DOM
$1 billion WW

Fuck it, I'll play:

118 OW
305 Domestic
790 Worldwide

Spidey Homecoming prediction: $1B worldwide.

I'm seeing over $800m worldwide, but not 850.
And if it goes over $300m domestic, it won't be over $350m.

I am being cautious after blowing my predictions on GOTG2 and others.

Spidey:

125m OW
350m DOM
900m WW

Spidey should be big. Real big. I think it'll just miss out on that billion.

Spidey

110 OW
375DOM
850WW

Spidey

120 OW
350 DOM
900 WW

Spider-Man: Homecoming Predictions:

110 OW
320 Dom
530 Foreign

880 Worldwide

Homecoming predictions.

115 OW
335 DOM
880 WW

$350m Dom
$875m WW

Spider-Man predictions...

109m OW
405m DOM
1.1b WW

My shot in the dark:

Opening Weekend: $114,844,117
Domestic Total: $325M
Worldwide: $850M

I'm optimistic for Spidey:

$150 OW
$400 DOM
$1B WW

I'm just going to stick with my 175 domestic total run for Spidey just in case! :'D

But considering good reviews it's probably more like 300 domestic, 900 WW. That Marvel x2 foreign multiplier at work.
If it goes over 300 domestic, it's also going to go over 1 billion WW. But I can't see that happening on a solo Spider-Man movie.

Spidey Homecoming Prediction

$115m opening weekend
$330m Domestic Total
$900m Global Total

Too late for Spidey predictions?

OW: $115m
Domestic: $360m
Worldwide: $880m

Spider-Man Homecoming

Opening Week: $110M
Domestic: $350M
International: $600M

Worldwide: $950M

I don't think it can reach a billion but it should come close. WOM and the weekend multiplier will be interesting to watch for sure.

Spider-man Predictions

OW: 110m
DOM: 375m
WW: 850m

Homecoming predictions for me.

OW: 115m
DOM: 328m
WW: 806m

Homecoming, because why not:

OW: $120
DOM: $310
WW: $800

The basic guess for Spider-Man is $100 million opening, $300 domestic, $800 worldwide.

I think it's do slightly better opening weekend, so... $115 million, $300 domestic, $850 worldwide.

Homecoming of the Man-Spider:

OW: $100
DOM: $290
WW: $775

Homecoming:

110M OW
300M DOM
510M OS
810M WW

DOM number will increase from ASM 2 which will provide most of the gains. The OS number will stay pretty close to the previous film.

Thor 3 will squeak past it in spectacular fashion.

Spiderman 6: Homecoming

OW: $105
DOM: $300
WW: $800

Homecoming:

OW: $127
DOM: $378
WW: $954

Spider-Man: Homecoming:

OW: $115 million.
DOM: $318 million.
WW: $867 million.

Spider-Man Homecoming
OW: 110
DOM: 350
WW: 900

Spidey:

OW: 120
Dom: 420
WW: 1 Billion

Word of mouth is gonna make this one big I think.

Spider-Man Homecoming.

OW -$110m

US - $270m

WW - $750m

I think that, despite the great reviews, Spider-Man doesn't really expand beyond the core, albeit large, Marvel audience.
.

Homecoming:

OW: $124M
Domestic: $310M
International: $530M
Worldwide: $840M

Edit: I guess $900M is definitely possible, however, I want Apes to do well. Apes could be doing around the same. Who knows.

OW $128M
Domestic $375
World Wide $970m

Spidey gonna slay

I'm gonna overestimate a bit for Homecoming.

$130m OW
$900m WW


FYI, I will be gifting the 3 persons with the best OW prediction one game on Steam. In the event of a tie (Because you fuckers are offered no less than 5 $120M OW predictions) I'll use the domestic total as a tie-breaker, so please provide that if you want to participate. I've got a few games I can gift, so the breakdown will be

1st place: Dishonored 2
2nd place: Doom
3rd place: XCOM: Enemy Unknown

Or, if 1st place wants Doom, I'll give that person that and then 2nd gets Dishonored 2, etc.

edit: Let's also put the deadline at 11:59PM July 5th PST.
 
While I feel ashamed that my prediction is an Entourage joke, I'm thrilled to see nobody here got the reference. Stay innocent, friends.
 
Well this puts that whole "avatar bet" bullshit straight to shame, doesn't it.

This is good shit.

Been hearing lots of good stuff about Dishonored 2. It'll be fun to play it
 

Bronx-Man

Banned
He said his main inspiration for the movie is Jack Kirby, if I remember correctly.

No one will be ready.

497.jpg


It's time to go 3 for 3.
 

kswiston

Member
Here's the collection of Spider-Man predictions:


FYI, I will be gifting the 3 persons with the best OW prediction one game on Steam. In the event of a tie (Because you fuckers are offered no less than 5 $120M OW predictions) I'll use the domestic total as a tie-breaker, so please provide that if you want to participate. I've got a few games I can gift, so the breakdown will be

1st place: Dishonored 2
2nd place: Doom
3rd place: XCOM: Enemy Unknown

Or, if 1st place wants Doom, I'll give that person that and then 2nd gets Dishonored 2, etc.

edit: Let's also put the deadline at 11:59PM July 5th PST.

Amazingly generous. I am now hoping that Homecoming has the exact same weekend as Spider-Man 1 :p

I can throw in Vermintide and DiRT Rally if you want to have 5 prizes. Maybe just give each winner their pick of what remains in order. I have some alternatives to X-Com 1 as well if everyone has that already. I think it was given away by 2k at one point.

Mine are Steam keys through the Humble store, which should also help if your stuff is actually from Steam and subject to the BS "no more than 10% difference in regional pricing" restriction on gifts. I know that not everyone here is American.
 
Steam keys? What if we don't game on PC?!
damn.png
It's a good thing it will open well above $117M, then!

I'll figure something out :)

Amazingly generous. I am now hoping that Homecoming has the exact same weekend as Spider-Man 1 :p

I can throw in Vermintide and DiRT Rally if you want to have 5 prizes. Maybe just give each winner their pick of what remains in order. I have some alternatives to X-Com 1 as well if everyone has that already. I think it was given away by 2k at one point.

Mine are Steam keys through the Humble store, which should also help if your stuff is actually from Steam and subject to the BS "no more than 10% difference in regional pricing" restriction on gifts. I know that not everyone here is American.
Good stuff kswiss.

In BO news, Deadline has early numbers for today

DM3: $14.5M
Baby Driver: $4.5-4.75M
The House: $1.7M
 

kswiston

Member
Good stuff kswiss.

In BO news, Deadline has early numbers for today

DM3: $14.5M
Baby Driver: $4.5-4.75M
The House: $1.7M

PM me a reminder when it's time to hand out prizes, and I will send you the keys for dispersal with your other stuff.


It looks like the estimate for DM3 is on par with the average drop from Jul 3rd, 2006.
 

kswiston

Member
That same Deadline article with the Monday figures is saying that War for the Planet of the Apes was tracking at $50M, but might exceed that.

I'm sure Fox hopes so. The Last film opened to nearly $73M, and even Rise was ~$55M opening weekend.
 

Sir Doom

Member
Am I having a stroke because the thread title is incomprehensible

Or is this a millennial thing? Random words stitched together and pass as a phrase
 
Holy, shit, Boss Baby in week 14 and still in the top 20, Captain Underpants only in week 5 and already down the 14th place!?! What the hell happened?

I mean I love Boss Baby and am super glad it's such a monumental success but the drop in performance between it and Captain Underpants, which is based off a [from what I understand] very popular series of books, is immense. Did they release them too close together? People not stoked on "The First Epic Movie" subtitle, thinking "oh great another series"? Boss Baby even held its own agains Beauty and the Beast. I still want to see it but what a bummer.
 
Ay MH
Ay c'mere

I'll split the pot with you if you mod edit my shit to put the exact number in one of my posts, Price is Right style

Think about what you could do with half of Dishonored 2!

giveaways for predictions stuff is an awesome idea, good shit guys
 

kswiston

Member


Half of the 'lol Millennials' stuff on GAF is coming from Millennials knowing the demographics. We're basically looking at 18-36.

Also, xaosslug has been here for over 16 years, so he's early 30s at least.

EDIT: 11 years! I can't do arithmetic today. xaosslug could be in his mid-late 20s I guess.
 

kswiston

Member
Ay MH
Ay c'mere

I'll split the pot with you if you mod edit my shit to put the exact number in one of my posts, Price is Right style

Think about what you could do with half of Dishonored 2!

giveaways for predictions stuff is an awesome idea, good shit guys

We should do the next one for Justice League.

EDIT: My unclaimed key list on the Humble site is pretty legendary after 7 years of frequent use, so I am sure I can dig some stuff up.
 

Lima

Member
Half of the 'lol Millennials' stuff on GAF is coming from Millennials knowing the demographics. We're basically looking at 18-36.

Also, xaosslug has been here for over 16 years, so he's early 30s at least.

I bet he is old because he thinks his titles are cool and hip. Instead they read like

giphy.gif
 
We should do the next one for Justice League.

EDIT: My unclaimed key list on the Humble site is pretty legendary after 7 years of frequent use, so I am sure I can dig some stuff up.

I'd have to look at mine too, but I've probably got some things I can throw in for later giveaways

Also Winter 2017 is gonna be a barnburner, there's like four bigguns I can think of

I bet he is old because he thinks his titles are cool and hip. Instead they read like

Xaos does all that shit on purpose, he loves our confusion
 

Schlorgan

Member
I'm bad enough at regular predictions, I'm kind of scared to predict opening weekends.

Good thing I already own DOOM. xD
 
Why

Why

Why why why
It was embarrassing. 20 minute show where 3 and a half minutes right in the middle were pretty much an extended Dark Universe trailer and a speech later.

They had an actual trailer for The Mummy with Cruise saying how awesome it was to do his own stunts and float in zero gravity in a airplane before the start as well.

I'm now amazed WB did zero promotion for Fantastic Beasts when I was at their tour near London before release apart from having a table in the giftshop with the pocketbook on display.
 

WaffleTaco

Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
People are seriously underestimating Spider-Man. I believe it can do really well. Do people keep forgetting it also has Iron Man?
It's best film was 890 and that was the end of a trilogy.

If Captain America Civil War can reach $1.1 billion, Spider-Man should hit more than 900 million and this is the minimum I expect for it.

Wonder Woman pre-release buzz started off strong thanks to the rave reviews. The same looks to be the case for Spider-Man which is being marketed as the best Spider-Man film in TV spots/Trailers. There is plenty of buzz surrounding it leading to the release of the film.

Civil War got a billion not because it had Iron Man in it, but because it had the entire Avengers cast minus Thor/Hulk. Wonder Woman was a unique concept (female super hero done well). Plus the new Spider Man looks to be offering nothing new, and we have had five films since 2001. It may be a good, even great movie, but nothing new.

We know that Box Office GAF is all old men.
Im like the exact opposite.
 
Ay MH
Ay c'mere

I'll split the pot with you if you mod edit my shit to put the exact number in one of my posts, Price is Right style

Code:
[IMG]https://files.insidify.com/uploads/discovery/phone.jpg[/IMG]

I'll split the pot with you if you mod edit my shit to put the exact number in one of my posts, Price is Right style

Code:
[IMG]https://cdn.shutterstock.com/shutterstock/videos/6861280/thumb/1.jpg[/IMG]

mod edit the exact number

Code:
[IMG]https://ak6.picdn.net/shutterstock/videos/6617804/thumb/1.jpg?i10c=img.resize(height:160)[/IMG]

Didn't even think about doing that.

Im like the exact opposite.

One o' them millennials, killing things that are the core of America, like *reads card* Applebees, Diamonds, Focus Groups, Cruises, and golf. How dare you.
 

J_Viper

Member
That same Deadline article with the Monday figures is saying that War for the Planet of the Apes was tracking at $50M, but might exceed that.

I'm sure Fox hopes so. The Last film opened to nearly $73M, and even Rise was ~$55M opening weekend.

The RT God is a kind and merciful God

It saved Edgar Wright and it'll save Apes

Won't it?
 
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