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Wedbush Morgan - April NPD Preview w/ HW estimates (predicts sales up 24%)

S

sonycowboy

Member
Courtesy of Wedbush Morgan.

Reminder: The prediction thread is that away.

April 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect 24% Sales Growth

* We expect April U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, May 17. We forecast sales of $489 million, up 24% compared to last year’s $395 million.

* Our estimate reflects $345 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS) and current generation software sales of $144 million.

* We estimate sell-through of 100,000 PS3 and 300,000 Wii hardware systems.

* Our forecast also assumes PS2 software sales of $100 million, down 35% although we expect more modest declines in PS2 sales beginning in May, when a strong slate of mass-market titles will be released.

* Sales growth over the last ten months has averaged a robust 16%. We continue to expect contribution from next generation software sales to grow on a year-over-year basis throughout 2007, more than offsetting modest declines in current generation software sales.

We expect April sales to be driven by new release Nintendo’s Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (DS), which had over 533,000 in preorders. We estimate that the title sold over 800,000 units during the month. We expect continued strong sales from recent releases Ubisoft’s Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2 (360), Sony’s God of War II (PS2), and Activision’s Guitar Hero II (360).


Our views for console hardware sales are as follows:
Wii 300,000
PS3 100,000
Xbox 360 175,000
PS2 250,000
PSP 200,000
DS 450,000
GBA 100,000

After a relatively large expected decline in April, we expect the PS2 software sales strength to rebound, given the phenomenal lineup of mass-market games expected in May – July. We note that positive comparisons for PS2 software sales begin in April, making continued sales strength more difficult. However, we expect a high level of software support for the PS2 platform for the foreseeable future, and expect only modest year-over-year declines (approximately 20%) for the first half of 2007. Over the next four months, we expect the PS2 versions of Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, Ratatouille, Transformers, and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix to sell more units than on any other platforms. The degree of decline in the second half of the year will depend upon next generation console sales, as most next generation consoles are likely replacements for current generation consoles.

... It is possible that Sony’s cost of production for the PS3 has declined to the point that the company may consider a hardware price cut some time this summer, and we may see a price cut for the PS2 before the holidays.
Click to expand...
 
H

Hero

Member
Dropping the price of the PS3 won't mean much if they drop the price of the PS2 along with it.

It might mean even more casuals will be looking to pick up a PS2.

Sony is stuck in a bad position. Let the PS3 rot while the PS2 gets a lot of casual sales, or drop the PS3 price and kill the PS2 line.
 
L

laserbeam

Banned
Hmm he says expect 800K Pokemon sales even though Nintendo had a Press release about over 1 million sold in 5 days.

and hes gotta be dreaming if he thinks cost of production has dropped significantly the 360 still doesn't make a profit.
 
C

Crypto

Banned
When is the actual NPD data coming? Not asking for an exact time, is it today or this week or next or what?
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Crypto said:
When is the actual NPD data coming? Not asking for an exact time, is it today or this week or next or what?
Click to expand...

Read the mother ****ing first line! of the quoted article in the original post. Every ****ing month!
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
360 numbers are way too low imo. Elite coming out should at least cover 20k or so and level the 360 off at 200k like it usually does, taking into account those that would have bought a 360 anyway whether it was an elite or a premium.
 
L

laserbeam

Banned
Stealth Editor said:
The Sony press release guys gonna have to do some overtime to spin this one
Click to expand...

"Our Product Remains supply constrained due to the vile People at Nintendo Buying out the Production companies behind our manufacturing of the PS3."
 
K

kenta

Has no PEINS
sonycowboy said:
Read the mother ****ing first line! of the quoted article in the original post. Every ****ing month!
Click to expand...
Can you please tell me how many DS's they expect sold
 
O

OldJadedGamer

Banned
Stealth Editor said:
The Sony press release guys gonna have to do some overtime to spin this one
Click to expand...

I almost think that Sony timed their gamer's day to be the day before NPD day so that positive news about the show of games to the press will drown out any bad NPD news about system sales.
 
F

Flo_Evans

Member
Man PS3 is really sucking wind... who would of guessed? (everyone right lol) but damn. They need some GAME INFO for people to be excited about. This gamers day better deliver the goods, or they are gonna be in deep(er) shit. It's bad news when I am looking forward to blu-ray releases more than game releases on the thing. But maybe that was thier plan all along?
 
L

laserbeam

Banned
OldJadedGamer said:
I almost think that Sony timed their gamer's day to be the day before NPD day so that positive news about the show of games to the press will drown out any bad NPD news about system sales.
Click to expand...

You may actually be onto something lol
 
S

Stealth Editor

Member
I almost think that Sony timed their gamer's day to be the day before NPD day so that positive news about the show of games to the press will drown out any bad NPD news about system sales.
Click to expand...

Monthly gamer's day confirmed!
 
C

Crypto

Banned
sonycowboy said:
Read the mother ****ing first line! of the quoted article in the original post. Every ****ing month!
Click to expand...

lol sorry, I missed that. Maybe you should bold it next time :p
 
B

bud

Member
Speevy said:
I didn't make a prediction. I asked when the numbers were coming, but it's mentioned right in the quote.
Click to expand...

yeah i know but

sonycowboy said:
Read the mother ****ing first line! of the quoted article in the original post. Every ****ing month!
Click to expand...

that's why i lol'd

on topic: 360 will probably do ±200k with the elite being released and all.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
I think he is low on the Wii numbers. I feel that Nintendo kept back some Wii units last month in order to push them into their new fiscal year that started in April. Wii units have certainly become a lot easier to acquire lately . . . . if you are are willing to buy a Wii bundled with extra controllers and a couple of additional titles.

And that PS3 number is low too . . . the PS3 isn't selling THAT bad.

He may even be low on the 360 sales . . . for the first time ever I think. Didn't the Elite launch in April? Even though it has been dissed by GAF (for good reason), it is a good unit to get if you want an x360 and haven't got one yet. (The Core is a 'tard pak and for $79 more than the Pro, you get HDMI + 120GB hdd).
 
C

chibcicylist

Banned
Flo_Evans said:
Man PS3 is really sucking wind... who would of guessed? (everyone right lol) but damn. They need some GAME INFO for people to be excited about. This gamers day better deliver the goods, or they are gonna be in deep(er) shit. It's bad news when I am looking forward to blu-ray releases more than game releases on the thing. But maybe that was thier plan all along?
Click to expand...

They did that last March and they were forced to use the supply contraint excuse...

bud said:
not at all iirc.
Click to expand...
GAF>>>Pachter
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
speculawyer said:
I think he is low on the Wii numbers. I feel that Nintendo kept back some Wii units last month in order to push them into their new fiscal year that started in April. Wii units have certainly become a lot easier to acquire lately . . . . if you are are willing to buy a Wii bundled with extra controllers and a couple of additional titles.

And that PS3 number is low too . . . the PS3 isn't selling THAT bad.

He may even be low on the 360 sales . . . for the first time ever I think. Didn't the Elite launch in April? Even though it has been dissed by GAF (for good reason), it is a good unit to get if you want an x360 and haven't got one yet. (The Core is a 'tard pak and for $79 more than the Pro, you get HDMI + 120GB hdd).
Click to expand...

Wii: Agree - it's going to be higher

PS3: Disagree - it's doing quite bad and the fact it was a 5 week month last month hid the big decline. And that was with Motorstorm, Oblivion and a few other titles.

360: Depends on how much the Elite shipped. They pretty much sold out, but most stores report not getting a second shipment and a small first shipment.
 
M

Monk

Banned
theBishop said:
No way, next-gen wasn't rushed... at all.
Click to expand...

Can i say i told you so? Seriously if Sony delayed their console for a couple of years and had more content available, i bet it would be doing so much better.


Armchair Analyst FTW!
 
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