sonycowboy
Member
Courtesy of Wedbush Morgan.
Reminder: The prediction thread is that away.
Reminder: The prediction thread is that away.
April 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect 24% Sales Growth
* We expect April U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, May 17. We forecast sales of $489 million, up 24% compared to last years $395 million.
* Our estimate reflects $345 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS) and current generation software sales of $144 million.
* We estimate sell-through of 100,000 PS3 and 300,000 Wii hardware systems.
* Our forecast also assumes PS2 software sales of $100 million, down 35% although we expect more modest declines in PS2 sales beginning in May, when a strong slate of mass-market titles will be released.
* Sales growth over the last ten months has averaged a robust 16%. We continue to expect contribution from next generation software sales to grow on a year-over-year basis throughout 2007, more than offsetting modest declines in current generation software sales.
We expect April sales to be driven by new release Nintendos Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (DS), which had over 533,000 in preorders. We estimate that the title sold over 800,000 units during the month. We expect continued strong sales from recent releases Ubisofts Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2 (360), Sonys God of War II (PS2), and Activisions Guitar Hero II (360).
Our views for console hardware sales are as follows:
Wii 300,000
PS3 100,000
Xbox 360 175,000
PS2 250,000
PSP 200,000
DS 450,000
GBA 100,000
After a relatively large expected decline in April, we expect the PS2 software sales strength to rebound, given the phenomenal lineup of mass-market games expected in May July. We note that positive comparisons for PS2 software sales begin in April, making continued sales strength more difficult. However, we expect a high level of software support for the PS2 platform for the foreseeable future, and expect only modest year-over-year declines (approximately 20%) for the first half of 2007. Over the next four months, we expect the PS2 versions of Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, Ratatouille, Transformers, and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix to sell more units than on any other platforms. The degree of decline in the second half of the year will depend upon next generation console sales, as most next generation consoles are likely replacements for current generation consoles.
... It is possible that Sonys cost of production for the PS3 has declined to the point that the company may consider a hardware price cut some time this summer, and we may see a price cut for the PS2 before the holidays.