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[sonycowboy]

Sonycowboy, there has been a month where these previsions have REALLY good approximate the realy numbers ? Because for what I remember, NPD calculate always very differnt numbers at the end.

They've never really done HW numbers and for the most part, they're only incidental to the numbers they do care about. SW sales for the US publishers. Overall, he's actually quite good at overall SW numbers, with big swings between the publishers when he misses a particularly big sku. Catalog wise (old games), he's got some excellent models for those sales, so the big bomb/surprise always causes swings.

Again, he doesn't particularly care about the Nintendo SW sales, except to see how they affect other SW sales (usually sucking oxygen from that platform, but at the same time infusing it with HW sales for later months).

 

[Threi]

The continued success of the PS2 only shows how ahead-of-its-time the PS3 is.

thats AWESOME...you should sell that line to sony

 

[Xzbeat]

about 100k for the PS3 during the month of April would put it right in line with the weekly average that March had (rounding down). I think once we reach a really shit sales month (August is traditionally really low), it'll drop below 100k.

Isn't Lair supposed to be released this summer. It'll help bump sales a bit for the period. Anyway Sony needs to release HS as soon as possible. That and Uncharted are my two most anticipated PS3 games.
Cutting the price now could be dangerous as it could make people have a negative perception of the console (GC syndrome).

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I'm really not sure why the X360 is struggling, as the game lineup is pretty robust. The hardware price is *not* shockingly expensive. The Xbox is dead and has been for about 18 months.

18 months after Xbox launch, Xbox had a second price drop and was available for $180. 18 months after Xbox 360 launch, Xbox 360 has had no price drops and is available for $300, 400, or 480. It's pretty expensive for a system of its age. Even PS2 was having its first major price drop to $200 about now.

 

[AniHawk]

Isn't Lair supposed to be released this summer. It'll help bump sales a bit for the period. Anyway Sony needs to release HS as soon as possible. That and Uncharted are my two most anticipated PS3 games.
Cutting the price now could be dangerous as it could make people have a negative perception of the console (GC syndrome).

Lair isn't actually coming out. That's just what the Germans want you to believe.

 

[Tiktaalik]

PS3 100,000
GBA 100,000

Ha! I like how they didn't want to say which one would come out on top this month.

Spoiler

Nintendo release Mother 3

 

[laserbeam]

18 months after Xbox launch, Xbox had a second price drop and was available for $180. 18 months after Xbox 360 launch, Xbox 360 has had no price drops and is available for $300, 400, or 480. It's pretty expensive for a system of its age. Even PS2 was having its first major price drop to $200 about now.

It seems this gen rather then getting cheaper the new logic is since our systems didn't sell so hot we will release even more expensive versions.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

They've never really done HW numbers and for the most part, they're only incidental to the numbers they do care about. SW sales for the US publishers. Overall, he's actually quite good at overall SW numbers, with big swings between the publishers when he misses a particularly big sku. Catalog wise (old games), he's got some excellent models for those sales, so the big bomb/surprise always causes swings.

Again, he doesn't particularly care about the Nintendo SW sales, except to see how they affect other SW sales (usually sucking oxygen from that platform, but at the same time infusing it with HW sales for later months).

Ok. Thanks.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Elite 360 was supply constrained or something? I said 300k in the prediction thread expecting like 100-150k Elite at least. Seeing 175k there, was it THAT niche?

 

[LJ11]

1) Hardware failures
2) The Xbox 360 isn't PS2-level popular despite its game lineup.
3) Every list needs a #3.

You think hardware failures have more impact than the price, especially since the mainstream press hasn't "pressed" the issue with MS? Outside of videogame message boards, who knows about the failure rates? Ngai isn't writing about them in Newsweek. Price is key.

If your implying that high warranty costs are prohibiting MS from dropping price, then I may agree with that line of thinking but to say hw failures is the root cause isn't logical from what we've seen this generation.

 

[PhoenixDark]

QFT. People don't seem to grasp the whole barrier of entry logic.

360 cheaper, really strong lineup....Still not selling that great. They aren't gonna put up monster numbers till the prices come down a bit.

I agree. Most people don't think spending $500 or $600 on a videogame console is that reasonable. Once the prices go down of course we'll see an increase in sales; it's similar to what's happening with HDTVs.

The PS3 is a great system, but it seems to me that this year is going to be the 360's. They'll have all three of the most successful US franchises (GTA, Halo, and Madden) on the shelf this holiday season. Plus while the PS3 will most likely see a pricedrop to $400 or even $500, the 360 could fall to $300-350.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Isn't Lair supposed to be released this summer. It'll help bump sales a bit for the period. Anyway Sony needs to release HS as soon as possible. That and Uncharted are my two most anticipated PS3 games.
Cutting the price now could be dangerous as it could make people have a negative perception of the console (GC syndrome).

I think Motorstorm was hyped longer and harder than Lair and that didn't seem to have that effect.

 

[Evlar]

Elite 360 was supply constrained or something? I said 300k in the prediction thread expecting like 100-150k Elite at least. Seeing 175k there, was it THAT niche?

Reports say the shipments have been small. I saw one this past weekend at Best Buy (and saw it walk out the door ten minutes later). Other than the Elite the 360 shelves were stuffed with Premiums and Cores.

If people really are holding out for Elites it might actually be cannibalizing the sales of the other, more common, SKUs.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

360 sales might be lower as people held off buying one untill the Elite was released, say 150k units?

Ps3 100k units, last month adjusted for 4 weeks rather than 5

Wii/DS How many did they make/ship?

PS2/PSP - 200k/175k (Wild guesses)

 

[ksamedi]

Lair isn't actually coming out. That's just what the Germans want you to believe.

:lol

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Didn't a Sony rep state that 300k PS3s were sold to retailers the last week of March? So 200k PS3s are sitting on stock shelves?

 

[Odysseus]

I sure agree with you there. With these $399 & $599 prices, there is absolutely no single game that will get anyone to buy a 360 or a PS3.




Well, if March was low due to people waiting for the Elite then April may be low too. The Elite didn't ship until the very end of the month and it apparently didn't even ship in quantities to meet all the pre-orders.

the one thing i would say is to not put too much thought into low elite shipments. i mean, sure, the shipment could have been extremely low and if demand outstripped supply on elite, then that's another notch in the belt of microsoft's ineptness. on the other hand, has anyone actually seen a wii ever? yet it apparently sells like mad. if elite had a shipment on par with however nintendo immaculately supplies stores with wiis, then it should be enough to provide a boost. i guess. what the frap do i know.

 

[Xabora]

It seems this gen rather then getting cheaper the new logic is since our systems didn't sell so hot we will release even more expensive versions.

The only reason why the Xbox had a price drop so soon was because Sony dropped the price of the PS2.


PS2 Price Drops:
# US$299.99 (October 26, 2000, release date) (CAD$449.99)
# US$199.99 (May 14, 2002) (CAD$299.99)
# US$179.99 (August 18, 2003, official pricing)
# US$149.99 (May 11, 2004) (CAD$179.99)
# US$129.99 (April 20, 2006) (CAD$139.99)

Xbox Price Drops:
* US$299 (November 15, 2001, Launch Price) (CAD$449)
* US$199 (May 15, 2002) (CAD$299)
* US$179 (May 14, 2003) (CAD$249)
* US$149 (March 29, 2004) (CAD$199)

 

[C4Lukins]

Wii numbers are going to be very high this month because of increased shipments. I guess Patcher didn't get the memo.

By the way, why does Wedbush release their analysis only days before NPD releases their official numbers? Makes... no... sense!

Because a big part of the market is anticipating where it is going to go before the big news hits. It does not really help your investors to tell them after the fact that Sony or Microsoft had a big month. The market will have probably already swung, and any short term gains you could have gotten from investing before the news hit are not going to be there anymore.

 

[Christopher]

So with pretty much nothing to play on it, and a 200 price tag differnece between the Xbox the only lead it has on it projected is 75k? Wow.

 

[ZealousD]

I'm really not sure why the X360 is struggling, as the game lineup is pretty robust.

It's not really struggling but it's not doing absolutely superb either. It's still getting a fair amount of mindshare and it's leading software sales atm (in America at least) so it'll do fine. It's most certainly poised to outsell the original XBOX, that's for sure.

 

[Flyguy]

Lair isn't actually coming out. That's just what the Germans want you to believe.

 

[StevieP]

Lair isn't actually coming out. That's just what the Germans want you to believe.

Then there's only one thing left to do... kill Jerry.

 

[laserbeam]

Didn't a Sony rep state that 300k PS3s were sold to retailers the last week of March? So 200k PS3s are sitting on stock shelves?

Sony Also Says they have shipped 6 million consoles to retail yet sales put them around only 3 million sold. So 200K on a shelf would be nothing compared to the 3 million already on shelves.

I think Sony would have multiple Orgasms if they only had 200K units on shelves

 

[Miniboss1232]

Didn't a Sony rep state that 300k PS3s were sold to retailers the last week of March? So 200k PS3s are sitting on stock shelves?

At least. Probably more.

 

[Odysseus]

sony says a lot of things

 

[PleoMax]

I think 360 and Ps3 numbers are too low.

 

[Liquid]

360 outselling ps3 almost 2 to 1. pie in the sky or something.

 

[Mrbob]

18 months after Xbox launch, Xbox had a second price drop and was available for $180. 18 months after Xbox 360 launch, Xbox 360 has had no price drops and is available for $300, 400, or 480. It's pretty expensive for a system of its age. Even PS2 was having its first major price drop to $200 about now.

While I agree with this, what is MS goal? Do they want to sell 15-20 million units, or 35 to 40 million units? Right now MS is treading barely above Xbox waters in terms of hardware sales. If we add an extra couple years onto the X360 hardware sales cycle right now, we are looking around 20 to 23 million units at best. Xbox could have accomplished this had it not been borked early. Not exactly the big jump you would expect.

With the game lineup the X360 currently has, it is somewhat frustrating to see the system stagnate like this in its biggest territory. X360 should be selling near Wii numbers right now. Not nearly half.

 

[unomas]

Has the elite halted premium 360 sales? Worst move by a potential frontrunner in the next gen race. Why would you make a good selling SKU SEEM obsolete by releasing a more expensive machine when you can see how pathetic PS3 sales have been? I really can't believe MS thought it was the right move. A seperate 120gb drive would have been great for those that wanted it, but releasing a new SKU was moronic at best.

 

[Speevy]

Has the elite halted premium 360 sales?

No?

 

[unomas]

While I agree with this, what is MS goal? Do they want to sell 15-20 million units, or 35 to 40 million units? Right now MS is treading barely above Xbox waters in terms of hardware sales.

With the game lineup the X360 currently has, it is somewhat frustrating to see the system stagnate like this in its biggest territory. X360 should be selling near Wii numbers right now. Not nearly half.

It seems pretty clear to me that MS doesn't have the slightest clue as to what is going on with the American consumer. Have ya seen gas prices lately? :lol

 

[Odysseus]

While I agree with this, what is MS goal? Do they want to sell 15-20 million units, or 35 to 40 million units?

With the game lineup the X360 currently has, it is somewhat frustrating to see the system stagnate like this in its biggest territory. X360 should be selling near Wii numbers right now. Not nearly half.

i think what we're witnessing is the ball dropping. the last quarterly report gives the clear indication that they still are not on top of the cost curve, and microsoft's bean counters have also given the indication that they are much more concerned about profiting this generation. sony may have given them room for error on the one hand, but wii's startling performance should be making them sweat on the other.

 

[plagiarize]

i have to love all these attempts at spinning the 360 vs PS3 sales to say 'gosh the 360 ONLY' beat the ps3 by... whatever.

yeah it's ONLY projected to have sold 75% more than the PS3 did.

jeez. these aren't even real figures and it's started already.

i think what we're witnessing is the ball dropping. the last quarterly report gives the clear indication that they still are not on top of the cost curve, and microsoft's bean counters have also given the indication that they are much more concerned about profiting this generation. sony may have given them room for error on the one hand, but wii's startling performance should be making them sweat on the other.

i think it's pretty clear that despite what MS say with regards to the Wii, that they're just crossing their fingers that sales of it nose dive down the line.

that or they've given up hope of doing anything about it, and are just focussing on taking on Sony.

 

[Liquid]

Right now MS is treading barely above Xbox waters in terms of hardware sales.

but where is sony tracking? FAR behind that. its all relative.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

Has the elite halted premium 360 sales? Worst move by a potential frontrunner in the next gen race. Why would you make a good selling SKU SEEM obsolete by releasing a more expensive machine when you can see how pathetic PS3 sales have been? I really can't believe MS thought it was the right move. A seperate 120gb drive would have been great for those that wanted it, but releasing a new SKU was moronic at best.

I agree they should be doing what they can to get the price down not up

 

[davepoobond]

360 outselling ps3 almost 2 to 1. pie in the sky or something.

2 to 1 against low numbers isn't very impressive, let alone the "almost" clause you tossed in there.

 

[AniHawk]

i think what we're witnessing is the ball dropping. the last quarterly report gives the clear indication that they still are not on top of the cost curve, and microsoft's bean counters have also given the indication that they are much more concerned about profiting this generation. sony may have given them room for error on the one hand, but wii's startling performance should be making them sweat on the other.

Well Nintendo said they're not actually competing with the other two so MS has nothing to worry about.

 

[unomas]

No?

I just feel like the premium PS3 killed the 20gb more affordable and still great version. Potentially the Elite will do the same to the premium 360. Thus making the consumer feel like they need to drop $480 to get the best version. Unfortunately judging by sales the Wii is gonna take home the prize because of moves like this.

 

[Odysseus]

Well Nintendo said they're not actually competing with the other two so MS has nothing to worry about.

oh, well that's a relief.

party in redmond!

 

[JMPovoa]

Can you actually blame Microsoft from wanting to make money this time? Look at how much they've lost in the gaming division since they got into it. I just hope they do get their hardware costs down so all of us can benefit from it.

 

[verplant]

Here's the wedbush vs actual for march

March
wedbush actual % off
wii 400000 259000 54.4%
ps3 165000 130000 26.9%
xbox 360 250000 199000 25.6%
ps2 250000 280000 -10.7%
psp 210000 180000 16.7%
DS 250000 508000 -50.8%
gba 165000 148000 11.5%

... which means last place in "Official March 2007 NPD Prediction Thread"

 

[Christopher]

Well Nintendo said they're not actually competing with the other two so MS has nothing to worry about.

exactly.

PS3 - Xbox 360 are doing HD graphics and what have you.

Wii is about "new experiences" or some shit...

 

[Eteric Rice]

I can't believe people actually believe the whole "Nintendo isn't competing" thing. :lol

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Can you actually blame Microsoft from wanting to make money this time? Look at how much they've lost in the gaming division since they got into it. I just hope they do get their hardware costs down so all of us can benefit from it.

Yeah 5 billion is nothing to sneeze at.

Especially because that is more than the GDP of many nations.

 

[AniHawk]

Yeah 5 billion is nothing to sneeze at.

Especially because that is more than the GDP of many nations.

They do it because they love us gamers.

 

[Crypto]

I can't believe people actually believe the whole "Nintendo isn't competing" thing. :lol

To a certain extent they really aren't going after the same people.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

They do it because they love us gamers.

My love ends when they release a console above $300

:lol

 

[chibcicylist]

Well Nintendo said they're not actually competing with the other two so MS has nothing to worry about.

The funny thing is that some in Microsoft(and Sony) actually believe, or at least portray that they do, in that Nintendo PR line.

It would be funny if the Elite suddenly makes the Premium a tard pack with people holding off until they can find one and we end up with PS3 like numbers for April :lol

 

[unomas]

Can you actually blame Microsoft from wanting to make money this time? Look at how much they've lost in the gaming division since they got into it. I just hope they do get their hardware costs down so all of us can benefit from it.

Definitely not, I'm questioning the Elite. I just wonder what they were thinking when they went ahead with it.