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[Unison]

450k for DS would actually be up (per week):

Ahh right, forgot about that.

We expect April sales to be driven by new release Nintendo’s Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (DS), which had over 533,000 in preorders. We estimate that the title sold over 800,000 units during the month.

That seems a tad low to me too... Maybe I am just insane though.

 

[Kevtones]

Wii #s seem low but its a 4 week so maybe not.

Regardless, from a retailer's perspective, our Wii shipments/competitor shipments increased dramatically during April.

 

[speculawyer]

PS2 is saved!

Saved? It already has the largest installed base of any console . . . EVER. And it continues to outsell every other console on the market except the Wii.

It hardly needs to be saved. :lol

But now that I think about it, you were probably making a joke.

 

[laserbeam]

That seems a tad low to me too... Maybe I am just insane though.

The Pokemon units are low if we base it off the Nintendo Press Release of 1 million sold in 5 days.

 

[Odysseus]

if 360 is that low, then microsoft really, really needs to think about a price drop. "bububububut they will be better than ps3 so why waste it and and and and halo 3 and gta and and and and..." and i will continue to say wii is still a direct competitor despite what anybody says and no game is going to make $400 hardware fly off the shelves.

that said, i think march's number was an elite-influenced aberration and as long as supplies were there, 360 should recover in april. if that's not the case and demand really did suddenly take a dive, then back to the first paragraph.

 

[spwolf]

lol... ps2 drop in price while it is selling like crazy... why?

funny thing is that these analysts, that get paid for doing this, are more often wrong than not...

 

[capslock]

There's no way the Wii figure is going to be lower than for the same time period in Japan, unless Nintendo is supplying more units to the region with half the population.

Demand is equal in both regions from what I understand.

 

[Chiggs]

PS3 will clear 500k easily this month. I went to a few retailers around town, and every employee I talked to agreed that the PS3 was seeing a strong surge in sales thanks to Home, Little Big Planet, and general excitement for Sony's Gamers Day.

 

[chibcicylist]

Wii #s seem low but its a 4 week so maybe not.

Regardless, from a retailer's perspective, our Wii shipments/competitor shipments increased dramatically during April.

Where do you work? You don't have to give a specific name but some vague details would be cool.

 

[clo1_2000]

 

[Haunted]

wow. PS3 expected to sell as much (little?) as the GBA? :lol

GBA beat PS3 the last two months. [insert gba-ps3-grudgematch.jpg]

PS3 wants a piece of GBA AGAIN?

just take the beating and move on...>_>

:lol

 

[Stumpokapow]

iTrackr Information:
Wii 11%
X360 Elite 17%
DS Black 46%
DS White 48%
DS Pink 49%
X360 Premium 79%
X360 HD DVD Player 88%
PS3 60GB 94%

Core isn't tracked, 20GB is discontinued.

 

[Grecco]

PS3 will clear 500k easily this month. I went to a few retailers around town, and every employee I talked to agreed that the PS3 was seeing a strong surge in sales thanks to Home, Little Big Planet, and general excitement for Sony's Gamers Day.

:lol wow.

 

[Xzbeat]

100,000 for the PS3 is too low. It's not selling that bad. 100K used to be ****ing GameCube's numbers in 2002.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

There's no way the Wii figure is going to be lower than for the same time period in Japan, unless Nintendo is supplying more units to the region with half the population.

It was last month.

Demand is equal in both regions from what I understand.

And so far, so is supply. NA and Japan have been fairly even, with Europe getting the relative supply shaft.

100,000 for the PS3 is too low. It's not selling that bad. 100K used to be ****ing GameCube's numbers in 2002.

40% drops from March to April are pretty common. PS3 only needs a 25% drop.

 

[laserbeam]

iTrackr Information:
Wii 11%
X360 Elite 17%
DS Black 46%
DS White 48%
DS Pink 49%
X360 Premium 79%
X360 HD DVD Player 88%
PS3 60GB 94%

Core isn't tracked, 20GB is discontinued.

Wiis dropped 20+% roughly in the last 2 weeks it peaked at about 37% availability.

 

[Oblivion]

.

Careful, holmes. I got into quite a bit of trouble for a similar act.

 

[Deku]

Wiis dropped 20+% roughly in the last 2 weeks it peaked at about 37% availability.

These are availability figures @ retail?

 

[maynerd]

Here's the wedbush vs actual for march

March
wedbush actual % off
wii 400000 259000 54.4%
ps3 165000 130000 26.9%
xbox 360 250000 199000 25.6%
ps2 250000 280000 -10.7%
psp 210000 180000 16.7%
DS 250000 508000 -50.8%
gba 165000 148000 11.5%

 

[Speevy]

100,000 for the PS3 is too low. It's not selling that bad. 100K used to be ****ing GameCube's numbers in 2002.

It's selling as awesome as the Gamecube did in 2002.

 

[ZealousD]

Wii numbers are going to be very high this month because of increased shipments. I guess Patcher didn't get the memo.

By the way, why does Wedbush release their analysis only days before NPD releases their official numbers? Makes... no... sense!

 

[capslock]

It was last month.

Sorry, I didn't understand, are you saying that Nintendo supplied more units to Japan last month? Because of Golden Week?

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

ps3 165000 130000 26.9%
xbox 360 250000 199000 25.6%

Uh > oh.

 

[plagiarize]

100,000 for the PS3 is too low. It's not selling that bad. 100K used to be ****ing GameCube's numbers in 2002.

april is traditionally a slower month than march.

for example, if you take the average drop in sales that the ps2 had from march to april, and applied that to last months PS3 sales, you get well below 100,000.

i'm actually disapointed that he wouldn't commit to above or below 100,000...

100,000 seems like he's backing out of making the call.

 

[speculawyer]

PS3: Disagree - it's doing quite bad and the fact it was a 5 week month last month hid the big decline. And that was with Motorstorm, Oblivion and a few other titles..

Good points. Man . . . if the PS3 doesn't break 100K, that is gonna be a bit embarassing. I look foward to the masterful Sony spin.

360: Depends on how much the Elite shipped. They pretty much sold out, but most stores report not getting a second shipment and a small first shipment.

Again, very good points. It shipped on like the last day of the month and shortness of units means the Elite boost won't push them above average. So he might have a good number there.


I sure wish Sony & MSFT would cut the prices on the PS3 & xbox 360 . . . they are retarding the adoption of next-gen HD consoles with their high prices. (And spare me the 'tard pak talk folks.)

 

[AniHawk]

about 100k for the PS3 during the month of April would put it right in line with the weekly average that March had (rounding down). I think once we reach a really shit sales month (August is traditionally really low), it'll drop below 100k.

 

[Stealth Editor]

Here's the wedbush vs actual for march

March
wedbush actual % off
wii 400000 259000 54.4%
DS 250000 508000 -50.8%

 

[Haunted]

Wii numbers are going to be very high this month because of increased shipments. I guess Patcher didn't get the memo.

By the way, why does Wedbush release their analysis only days before NPD releases their official numbers? Makes... no... sense!

Pachter, not Patcher. Michael Pachter.

 

[laserbeam]

These are availability figures @ retail?

Those Numbers are Based On Retail tracking that Itrackr does yeah. Its not 100% perfect but has generally been pretty good about what to expect. Can enter zip codes for direct area tracking etc.

Wii basically soared to about 37% Nationwide availability right when April started and the swarm of consoles. Before April it was generally no higher then 5%

 

[Parl]

Wii 300,000 - Maybe too high, but not by much. Don't think they shipped all that many
PS3 100,000 - Too high. This would be like 4,000 lower than last month if it was 4 weeks
Xbox 360 175,000 - About right, but maybe too high
PS2 250,000 - Wow, too high, methinks
PSP 200,000 - Too high, but not by all that much
DS 450,000 - Bit too low, but not by all that much
GBA 100,000 - A bit too low, but not by all that much

I think he's being bullish on EVERYTHING except a bit too low on DS and being okay with GBA.

 

[PhoenixDark]

100,000 for the PS3 is too low. It's not selling that bad. 100K used to be ****ing GameCube's numbers in 2002.

What does that tell you about the PS3?

Bottom line is that it needs a pricedrop, now. The 360's sales aren't great either, which suggests to me that the $400 isn't even a mainstream accepted price for a console. Both consoles won't see killer PS2/Wii-esque sales until they hit $300-350

 

[Mojovonio]

I don't see these trends chaning any time soon in NA.

 

[Flyguy]

100,000 for the PS3 is too low. It's not selling that bad. 100K used to be ****ing GameCube's numbers in 2002.

It actually is selling that bad. In March it sold 26K units a week with Motorstorm and Oblivion. If I were handicapping it, I'd put the line at 100,000 units. It's one of the better estimates. I think both the Wii and 360 predictions are low.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Sorry, I didn't understand, are you saying that Nintendo supplied more units to Japan last month? Because of Golden Week?

For the NPD March period (March 4 - April 7) Wii sales were 259K. In the equivalent period in Japan (March 5 - April 8), Media Create has Wii at about 290K. It doesn't necessarily follow that it will happen for the April period, but it wouldn't be unprecedented.

 

[fanduck]

Here's the wedbush vs actual for march

March
wedbush actual % off
wii 400000 259000 54.4%
ps3 165000 130000 26.9%
xbox 360 250000 199000 25.6%
ps2 250000 280000 -10.7%
psp 210000 180000 16.7%
DS 250000 508000 -50.8%
gba 165000 148000 11.5%

Thanks for posting this... Wedbush stinks! The DS and Wii estimates were just crazy!

 

[Innotech]

I really cant guess the wii. I notice a lot more units actually being available this month (first time since launch) but quickly selling out all over the place, and Ps3s just arent moving. I saw some Elites selling though. Its so hard to predict numbers with shortages and price cuts in the equation.

 

[speculawyer]

and no game is going to make $400 hardware fly off the shelves.

I sure agree with you there. With these $399 & $599 prices, there is absolutely no single game that will get anyone to buy a 360 or a PS3.

that said, i think march's number was an elite-influenced aberration and as long as supplies were there, 360 should recover in april. if that's not the case and demand really did suddenly take a dive, then back to the first paragraph.

Well, if March was low due to people waiting for the Elite then April may be low too. The Elite didn't ship until the very end of the month and it apparently didn't even ship in quantities to meet all the pre-orders.

 

[Dante]

What does that tell you about the PS3?

Bottom line is that it needs a pricedrop, now. The 360's sales aren't great either, which suggests to me that the $400 isn't even a mainstream accepted price for a console. Both consoles won't see killer PS2/Wii-esque sales until they hit $300-350

QFT. People don't seem to grasp the whole barrier of entry logic.

360 cheaper, really strong lineup....Still not selling that great. They aren't gonna put up monster numbers till the prices come down a bit.

 

[plagiarize]

Good points. Man . . . if the PS3 doesn't break 100K, that is gonna be a bit embarassing. I look foward to the masterful Sony spin.

they'll probably avoid spin and go for sleight of hand.

Spoiler

price drop probably

 

[Evlar]

He just keeps lowballing the DS by such a huge margin. It's rather funny.

 

[maynerd]

Thanks for posting this... Wedbush stinks! The DS and Wii estimates were just crazy!

Hey overall they were only 0.8% under the actual. That's pretty good.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Sonycowboy, there has been a month where these previsions have REALLY good approximate the realy numbers ? Because for what I remember, NPD calculate always very differnt numbers at the end.

 

[speculawyer]

Wii numbers are going to be very high this month because of increased shipments. I guess Patcher didn't get the memo.

Yeah . . . and since it was a Wall Street fiscal year type of issue, he should know that better than most people.

By the way, why does Wedbush release their analysis only days before NPD releases their official numbers? Makes... no... sense!

So we can get a big laugh at their expense. :lol

Wedbush probably gives out estimates much earlier to paying big-wig clients. What do you expect for nothing?

 

[Izzy]

Some of you're overestimating PS3 sales.

Personally, I'm looking forward to May PSP sales. Let's see if Koller got his marketing right.

 

[Mrbob]

I think it is pretty obvious while PS3 sales are slow.

1) There aren't many good games out for the platform at the moment

2) It is still 600 bucks

3) The PS2 is still selling amazingly well

I'm really not sure why the X360 is struggling, as the game lineup is pretty robust. The hardware price is *not* shockingly expensive. The Xbox is dead and has been for about 18 months.

 

[ZeoVGM]

Poor numbers for both next-gen consoles.

Hm? Wii numbers are great.

 

[PantherLotus]

The continued success of the PS2 only shows how ahead-of-its-time the PS3 is.

 

[Xabora]

 

[Speevy]

I'm really not sure why the X360 is struggling, as the game lineup is pretty robust. The hardware price is *not* shockingly expensive. And the Xbox is dead.

1) Hardware failures
2) The Xbox 360 isn't PS2-level popular despite its game lineup.
3) Every list needs a #3.

 

[MrPing1000]

ps3 vs gba round 2! FIGHT!