PlayStation 4 And More
Chris Morris 07.29.08, 6:00 AM ET
Before we get started, let's get one thing straight: It's insanely early to start thinking about the next generation of videogame systems.
Developers are only just beginning to figure out what they can do with the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3. And you still can't even find a Wii on store shelves.
But the battle to lead the next generation is a never-ending one in the gaming industry. And while none of the major console manufacturers wants to talk specifics, developers in the know say Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo are already hard at work putting together their next systems.
Game machines typically are on the shelves for five or six years before a console manufacturer rolls out the next one. With the expense and success of this crop of systems--which have been out two to three years--it could be closer to eight years before we see the PlayStation 4, Xbox 720 and Nintendo "Us"--or whatever they end up being called.
"One of the things I like about this generation is we are still very early and there's still a lot of room for growth
as we move down those price curves," says Brian Farrell, CEO of THQ. "Those engines have a lot of steam left in them. We think it could be seven or eight years before new machines start to roll out."
Epic Games, maker of the hit "Gears of War" series, agrees. President Mike Capps recently said the company estimates new systems will not hit shelves until somewhere between 2012 and 2018.
Both hardware and software manufacturers are already gearing up. Work on Epic's "Unreal Engine 4," a graphics engine for next-gen games, has been under way for almost two years now under the guidance of founder Tim Sweeney. "It's not like there's anything to show today," notes Epic Vice President Mark Rein.
On the hardware side, the battle seems to be focusing on graphics. Nvidia, which powers the PlayStation 3 and fueled the original Xbox, is showing its plans for the next generation to the console makers in an attempt to woo them. Intel, meanwhile, is pushing its Larrabee graphics processing unit, which it believes will unseat Nvidia from its leadership position.
Nvidia has the advantage of a proven history, but developers are curious about Larrabee--and eager to see if it can live up to Intel's boasts. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices, which bought graphics company ATI, is actively talking up its next-gen products with all three console makers as well.
While every developer has its preferences, they ultimately tend to be hardware agnostic--and will support whoever wins out. The general hope, though, is that the consoles end up using a shared architecture.
"The worst case is, Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo all pick a different interface," says id Software's John Carmack. "That's because you have to program so differently for [the different architectures].
If we end up with a diverse set of GPUs [graphics processing units], it would make life difficult."
Laying odds on who will win the GPU battle is a fool's errand right now. Both Nvidia and Intel are still in the early stages of development and haven't shown proof of concept models for the advanced chips.
"The truth is, we just don't know," Carmack says. "No one has done the comparative programming to determine if one of these is better than the other.
If nothing else, we'll have games that are better than they are now, but radical shifts? It's too early to tell."
All of this presupposes, of course, that at least one of the console makers will go for the "more power" option and not follow Nintendo's lead from this generation. It's a pretty safe bet. After all, the thought of a next generation without a graphically spectacular "Halo," "Gran Turismo" or "Grand Theft Auto" is pretty difficult to imagine.
And, as Jack Tretton, president and CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment of America, points out, an advanced machine doesn't necessarily rule out a run at the mass market.
"As far as next generation is concerned, I think one of the distinct advantages that we have is we don't have to go in a specific direction," he says. "I don't think the fact that we have a high-end machine keeps us from doing bite-sized casual entertainment. I don't think we're relegated to PC shooters or youth-oriented casual games. We can span the gamut."
Nintendo, as you might expect, is approaching things a bit differently. President Satoru Iwata freely admits the company is already working on the Wii's successor (something Microsoft's Shane Kim refuses to concede). However, he adds that he doesn't view the hardware as particularly interesting.
"We are always preparing for the next hardware," Iwata says. "We are under development.
But the hardware is a kind of box that consumers reluctantly buy in order to play our games."
To that end, Nintendo will keep its development well under wraps until Wii sales dry up--in other words, not anytime soon--and developers run out of ways to utilize the system's interface (ditto).
Nintendo, though, is in an unusual position. With the company's huge success with the current-generation console, consumers are going to expect a lot from it whenever the successor to the Wii is unveiled.
"Every hardware needs some revolutionary features," Iwata says. "This time around, it happened to be we had a revolutionary user interface. Will it be the same for the next generation? I really can't tell.
"It's natural for the current customer to expect Nintendo is going to once again do something different," he continues. "If the people are expecting so many different things from Nintendo, it's going to be difficult for us to go beyond that expectation again."
Fortunately for them, they've got plenty of time to figure it out.
