I just can't see Nintendo only doing a hardware upgrade on their next system. Wii 2 isn't just going to be graphics. The way they are going now, it's about the experience, particular the user experience in terms of the interface (controller). I expect to see something that furthers that philosophy similar to the way the wiimote has done in the present.
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Forbes column on PS4, Xbox 720, Wii 2 (next-gen systems)
- Thread starter Guy Legend
- Start date
duk said:xbox 720 will be announced 2011 and arrive 2012-2013.
PS4 will be announced 2011 and come 2013 (prob 2014 in EU)
Wii HD will be announced 2010 and come 2012.
Nintendo is never the first to release a system and Wii is too much of a success for Nintendo to just drop it.
Xbox succesor (The name "neXt" actually might be a good guess): Will be announced at GDC 2009, shown to the public in mid 2010 and released in the holiday season of 2010. Kids, 2011 and later would be too late to take a slice of the casual gamer market.
However, we'll see
Ok "Experts", it's your turn. If you think I'm terrible wrong with this list (and I'm sure most of you do), let me hear your predictions.
However, we'll see
- a motion sensor controller. No doubt about that.
- a hardware which is about as powerful as the 360, but a lot cooler; GPU/CPU by AMD. First console to use hardly modified Computer/Notebook hardware instead of uniquely designed hardware.
- more casual stuff, but don't expect Nintendo-like WiiWhatever games. They'll try to appeal to casual gamers with family friendly games like Viva Pinata, Banjo, Lips, Endemol's game shows and PopCap games. Hell, they might even buy PopCap no matter what to get their games exclusively.
- better integration of Windows and other devices to become "the hub of you digital life". Gaf will call this "BS" because it lacks an optical drive:
- Microsoft to fully focus on digital distribution this time. Kiss your optical drive goodbye! You'll be able to download a game via
XboxLive or to go to a shop nearby and download the game on your external hard drive from a hub. Instead of having hundreds of games, shops will have 2-5 hubs (depending on the size of the shop), where you can browse the game library, watch the latest trailers and so on. Shop owners will make money by renting shop space to Microsoft. - a glossy white and small console. Not as small as Wii or the slim version of the PS2, but about the half the size of the 360. Very minimalistic design and they'll probably go away from that "Xbox green" color to a more reddish one. No, seriously. Something like orange.
- a $299 price-point. One SKU. Yes. One.
Ok "Experts", it's your turn. If you think I'm terrible wrong with this list (and I'm sure most of you do), let me hear your predictions.
Death_Born
Banned
pn18 said:
All right.
Full digital distribution? Microsoft would never do something like that for their next console. Discs are here to stay for at least the next generation. I would wager that all games for the NeXtbox would be on Blu-Ray disc format. They might offer DD as an alternative to buying a hard copy though.
Also, $299? Not going to happen. Even if it's on modular hardware (which, knowing Microsoft, it will not be), it will cost at least $399. There will be different overpriced HDD's, the 240GB, the 320GB and the 500GB.
Control scheme? I'd like to see some kind of power glove, but they might introduce a break-apart controller instead. Think Wiimote, but times two for each hand. Don't expect something revolutionary.
I'm all for having a longer cycle this generation...it just makes sense for all parties involved: hardware makers, software makers, and consumers. None of the systems have hit mass market prices($199 and below)...the 360 is almost 3 years old and is just now knocking at last generation's top entry price, $299, via the marked down 20GB SKU(and this isn't permanent is it? it's just while it's being phased out while the new 60GB is $349 as far as i know). HDTVs still aren't widespread yet, not even among all of the tech-savvy crowd. The economy is in the shitter as well.
Dev costs and dev cycles are crazy...do you really want/expect the major companies to only put out 1 or 2 entries of their main series, which cost tens of millions to develop...sell to a small under-realized userbase, and then just shitcan all of those assets and all of that time learning these systems, dump more money to developing new, bigger, longer games on even more expensive systems, with even more complex hardware and sell to an even smaller userbase just a couple of years from now? It's even more dismal if you expect companies to invest in new unproven IPs.
It's amazing how short sighted some people can be by sticking their fingers in their ears going "la la la la la i can't hear you" because they want to scratch their graphic whore itch every 4-5 years in spite of the realities of the situation. The "MORE MORE MORE" business model is NOT sustainable.
Dev costs and dev cycles are crazy...do you really want/expect the major companies to only put out 1 or 2 entries of their main series, which cost tens of millions to develop...sell to a small under-realized userbase, and then just shitcan all of those assets and all of that time learning these systems, dump more money to developing new, bigger, longer games on even more expensive systems, with even more complex hardware and sell to an even smaller userbase just a couple of years from now? It's even more dismal if you expect companies to invest in new unproven IPs.
It's amazing how short sighted some people can be by sticking their fingers in their ears going "la la la la la i can't hear you" because they want to scratch their graphic whore itch every 4-5 years in spite of the realities of the situation. The "MORE MORE MORE" business model is NOT sustainable.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25710005/page/2/
Personally, I think that's absurd. Wii is graphically deficient. It's not supposed to have 12-year legs. Standard definition is supposed to die in 2009! In 2017, are we expected to still be covering for Nintendo, saying "nah, the time isn't right for HD, maybe next year"?
I think that as core gamers, Nintendo owes us a graphical upgrade (luls, as if they care), and they should just "slip it out" not as an entirely new console, but as a routine upgrade to their already successful line. Sort of like the GameBoy Color. That way they can keep their momentum going indefinitely, and not crash and burn for another few generations when the party ends in 2018 or sooner.
Miyamoto expects the Wii2 to appear sometime in the 2013-2018 range, and it'll probably just be a graphical upgrade.
Personally, I think that's absurd. Wii is graphically deficient. It's not supposed to have 12-year legs. Standard definition is supposed to die in 2009! In 2017, are we expected to still be covering for Nintendo, saying "nah, the time isn't right for HD, maybe next year"?
I think that as core gamers, Nintendo owes us a graphical upgrade (luls, as if they care), and they should just "slip it out" not as an entirely new console, but as a routine upgrade to their already successful line. Sort of like the GameBoy Color. That way they can keep their momentum going indefinitely, and not crash and burn for another few generations when the party ends in 2018 or sooner.
Gokurakumaru
Banned
I don't know when next-gen consoles will launch (though I'd wager 2012) but I'd be surprised if Sony isn't still a technical lead in console hardware.
The Wii is successful because of its interface. To think consumers wouldn't want a Wii with nicer looking games is naive, so I don't see the precedent set by Nintendo this gen to translate into underpowered hardware next gen. The only thing I think the Wii has proved is you need to capture the mind of the consumer and so I think we'll see all three manufacturers focusing heavily on the interface to their console.
With that said, Sony have struggled with price-point and profit with the PS3 because they invested heavily in new technology that was just ahead of its time at launch. There's no reason for the PS4 not to use Blu-Ray especially once drives support higher speeds and quad layer discs. There's no reason for the PS4 not to use a multi-cell CPU variant. And they may just be able to get a Cell based graphics card up and running like they wanted to for the PS3. Even if they can't they'll have to invest in a single truly new component for the console. R&D for the PS4 should be comparatively cheap and mass production should drive down the costs of its core components.
Why differentiate on just user interface when you can differentiate on user interface and visual appeal?
The Wii is successful because of its interface. To think consumers wouldn't want a Wii with nicer looking games is naive, so I don't see the precedent set by Nintendo this gen to translate into underpowered hardware next gen. The only thing I think the Wii has proved is you need to capture the mind of the consumer and so I think we'll see all three manufacturers focusing heavily on the interface to their console.
With that said, Sony have struggled with price-point and profit with the PS3 because they invested heavily in new technology that was just ahead of its time at launch. There's no reason for the PS4 not to use Blu-Ray especially once drives support higher speeds and quad layer discs. There's no reason for the PS4 not to use a multi-cell CPU variant. And they may just be able to get a Cell based graphics card up and running like they wanted to for the PS3. Even if they can't they'll have to invest in a single truly new component for the console. R&D for the PS4 should be comparatively cheap and mass production should drive down the costs of its core components.
Why differentiate on just user interface when you can differentiate on user interface and visual appeal?
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
I agree. I wanted another revolution, not just the Wii with prettier graphicsruby_onix said:
Beer Monkey
Member
Xbox had four holiday seasons. Gamecube had five.
Don't expect more than a couple more than five. The only way it will go longer than that, in a generation with much more competition than last, will be if we have a global economic catastrophe.
This holiday is the fourth for the 360.
Don't expect more than a couple more than five. The only way it will go longer than that, in a generation with much more competition than last, will be if we have a global economic catastrophe.
This holiday is the fourth for the 360.
That's probably too much to ask for. These things just come when they come. It might even be too much to expect Nintendo to keep being the one to deliver them.viciouskillersquirrel said:I agree. I wanted another revolution, not just the Wii with prettier graphics
But yeah, it sort of goes without saying that I would want a new revolution with any new console. But not at the cost of graphics. N64 didn't have to trade them. I doubt any shred of my love for Nintendo would survive if a Wii2 came out in 2013 with a new revolutionary something-or-the-other, but still had SD GameCube graphics.
I think it has something to do with the "revolution-refinement"-cycle, which Miyamoto mentioned in the interview: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25710005/page/2/stewacide said:
That means: NES (revolution) - SNES (refinement) - N64 (revolution) - GCN (refinement) - Wii (revolution).
So there's the possibility that all consoles in the next generation are a bit more similar than in this gen, just like the generation before. Of course there isn't any guarantee that the competition won't lead to a new disruption, but I think waggle and pointing should have enough potential for the next 10 years.
I'm pretty sure mind control won't be ready in five years.viciouskillersquirrel said:I agree. I wanted another revolution, not just the Wii with prettier graphics
I'm ok with an improved Wiimote in the next gen, though Nintendo surely will surprise us with some innovation.
charlequin
Banned
beermonkey@tehbias said:
Why not? The article (and posters in the thread) spell out the economic factors that make a longer console generation much more likely this time around than in any previous cycle. Typically, console generations start to give hardware makers a fresh start and end when someone's initial investment is no longer able to produce any revenues for them. Because of their higher than normal price and slow pricedrop schedule, the HD systems are almost certainly going to be able to ride out the sales curve for longer than past also-ran systems, even if they never gain relative to the Wii.
Console business must expand worldwide on the much higher scale than now. Thus, emerging markets like Eastern Europe, ex-Soviet countries, Middle East, India, China and South America will come into commercial focus in years to come.
At this point, all those countries has rosen around 100% growth of their GDP in last few years, but of course - there is great road that all of them have to make in catching up the developed world in terms of incomes as they're now - and will not happpen so fast. However, I'll take my cuntry as a example - Croatia - where GDP has risen around 100% in last 6 years or so.
And here is the point of all above: digital distribution will have to wait significantly. The internet penetration in above markets is nowhere near the one in developed world, even in the countries with higher standard, as mine. And internet speed is also significant factor which will not catch up the standards for next-next-gen content size in those markets. MY personal example is that standard internet connection in Croatia is aorund 4Mb/512kb, while I'm very lucky with my FTTH optics in 2Mb/2Mb range which will become 5Mb/5Mb in few days. But, I'm in the 0,01% people who have access to such speeds.
And you can't be foolish to think that all players - especially MS and Sony - do not take those markets in their equations.
Next-next-gen optical drives confirmed, but with stronger emphasis on digital download.
Oh yeah, another "small" detail - games already have more than 30GB of data. With being certain that next-next-gen will be able to pull-off 1080p with no problem as a standard, I guess we can expect next-next-gen games to be in proximity of 60-80GB of data-size, without going into futher explanations. Downloading such a tramendous amount of data - with internet speeds in range of even unbeleivable 40Mb/s would take very serious amounts of time.
No way hose, at least not in next few years.
At this point, all those countries has rosen around 100% growth of their GDP in last few years, but of course - there is great road that all of them have to make in catching up the developed world in terms of incomes as they're now - and will not happpen so fast. However, I'll take my cuntry as a example - Croatia - where GDP has risen around 100% in last 6 years or so.
And here is the point of all above: digital distribution will have to wait significantly. The internet penetration in above markets is nowhere near the one in developed world, even in the countries with higher standard, as mine. And internet speed is also significant factor which will not catch up the standards for next-next-gen content size in those markets. MY personal example is that standard internet connection in Croatia is aorund 4Mb/512kb, while I'm very lucky with my FTTH optics in 2Mb/2Mb range which will become 5Mb/5Mb in few days. But, I'm in the 0,01% people who have access to such speeds.
And you can't be foolish to think that all players - especially MS and Sony - do not take those markets in their equations.
Next-next-gen optical drives confirmed, but with stronger emphasis on digital download.
Oh yeah, another "small" detail - games already have more than 30GB of data. With being certain that next-next-gen will be able to pull-off 1080p with no problem as a standard, I guess we can expect next-next-gen games to be in proximity of 60-80GB of data-size, without going into futher explanations. Downloading such a tramendous amount of data - with internet speeds in range of even unbeleivable 40Mb/s would take very serious amounts of time.
No way hose, at least not in next few years.
Gokurakumaru said:
The Wii has proved that having a clear simple message to consumer and stick to it helps marketing and sales. I think ps4 (and others) will try to have ONE great differentiating idea and not try to be the all in one with no focus console that MS/Sony tried to sell this gen.
The next Xbox should still mostly focus on the Hardcore user, its all that MS has. Nintendo was so successful to casuals because they have a huge back-log of recognizable characters everyone knows and loves. WTF is MS going to do, make a game with Master Chief playing carnival style games?
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
disappeared said:
That holds some truth to it only in the US.
Like with Genesis US/Megadrive EU&JPN, they could go with Xbox for US and a new name for EU/JPN.
â Narayan
Member
I honestly hope that the next generation starts around 2015 or so.
charlequin
Banned
Seriously, guys, it's not just about getting an advantage in the next cycle. Launching a new console involves huge upfront losses that you aim to recoup as much as possible from the console as it ages. Shareholders are not going to like seeing new consoles so soon from MS and Sony when the previous consoles have made back so little money.
If this were last gen and those two consoles had little chance to recoup that value (due to unreduceable costs in Xbox's case and completely hemmorhaging all consumer and third-party support in the GameCube's) the choice would simply be to start a new gen or quit gaming entirely, but because of how high the price on PS3 and 360 still is, and the fact that both have moved into hardware profitability (and maintain effective software sales), there's no reason to rush to a new generation. Both can go four more years, dropping the price and continuing to sell software, and Microsoft can still pursue their strategy of launching first -- but since Sony would almost certainly prefer to push off their PS4 launch as long as possible, Microsoft can still wait a good number of years before doing it.
If this were last gen and those two consoles had little chance to recoup that value (due to unreduceable costs in Xbox's case and completely hemmorhaging all consumer and third-party support in the GameCube's) the choice would simply be to start a new gen or quit gaming entirely, but because of how high the price on PS3 and 360 still is, and the fact that both have moved into hardware profitability (and maintain effective software sales), there's no reason to rush to a new generation. Both can go four more years, dropping the price and continuing to sell software, and Microsoft can still pursue their strategy of launching first -- but since Sony would almost certainly prefer to push off their PS4 launch as long as possible, Microsoft can still wait a good number of years before doing it.
not to start up shit, but holding a wireless controller and pushing buttons really does feel bland compared to a split-controller that you can point at the screen with. Coupled with the fact that the Wii actually does offer two traditional solutions for games that require them (usually overlooked for some reason), i can see how someone can view the PS360 control scheme as "inferior".Woo-Fu said:
This is all my personal opinion though.
Vinci said:
Sorry but the response is strange.
Wiimote is only superior in certain types of games.
Racing games are rubbish with a Wiimote.
Football (FOOTBALL) games are rubbish with a Wiimote.
Tennis/golf games are fuck awesome on a Wiimote.
Shooters would be more fun on a Wiimote.
Zero_Phoenix
Banned
avaya said:
Shooters are more accurate on the Wiimote, but I would have rather played Metroid Prime 3 with a Gamecube controller. I haven't tried that one WW2 shooter that was supposed to have better control, but I found playing MP3 with the Wiimote tiring and annoying.
Nintendo will not just do a graphical upgrade. I mean they are already upgrading the Wiimote. Why would they stop now?ruby_onix said:
ruby_onix said:
HD is not dieing out in 2009. Just analog broadcast. Penetration will definitely be high enough for Nintendo to release a 720p maybe 1080p outputting system by 2012. I'd say 2012 is a pretty good guess for them. Obviously graphics aren't hurting it now and if what we are all saying comes true the 360 and PS3 will still be out then as well.
ruby_onix said:
I think you are selfish and they don't care. I don't care and most people obviously don't. There are many "core" (god I hate using that) gamers buying the system and its games. Again they won't do that with the home console. Have you been reading their quotes? They want to revolutionize again. How? who knows its freaking Nintendo.
Zero_Phoenix said:
A tip for you. Sit back in a chair rest your wrist on your elevated knee and point the IR towards the screen. You don't have to hold your whole damn arm up.
Zero_Phoenix
Banned
Jokeropia said:
Yea, I don't really have an optional positioning for playing a long aiming game like that. I also noticed how much I get little itches I need to scratch and other things that make me spin in place every 30 seconds. :lol
Vinci said:
Maybe the words are getting confused here but when I say waggle I include the pointer functionality.
I don't think that is the primary reason for it's immediate appeal though. I think that has to do with the fact that it looks like a remote and not some strange implement. This has been touched on before and it's a key point. If Sony and Microsoft go with non-remote style controllers they will fail in generating the same response as Wii.
I do get the feeling Sony and Microsoft will have to pack-in more than one controller for next generation. Break-aparts are a ridiculous idea. Sony should also think about an IR EyeToy as standard.
Jokeropia said:
Sorry but any racer in which braking and cornering are not secondary thoughts is a joke with that controller. You can not run with manual shifting with it as you can with a DualShock or 360 pad. It is extremely uncomfortable and awkard.
As for PES Wii. I played that. A traditional pad is better than everything for football games. Even the PES addicts who have a Wii still get PES on PS2/PS3/360. The Wiimote is certainly not superior.
My opinion of course. Nothing factual.
avaya said:
But they don't use the same things to function. That's why I don't include them together. When you say that the only thing the Wiimote has over other controllers is its 'waggle function,' it certainly sounds like a dismissal of the controller as something that you can just shake uncontrollably and do well in games with. Which is the connotation the 'waggle' word has attached to it at this point.
I'm not discussing its immediate visual appeal, I'm talking about what people on this board tend to appreciate the most from the Wiimote - it's the pointer functionality without a doubt. That's the one thing I think most of us can agree on being an excellent tool.
I own PES Wii. It is my favorite sports game. Possibly ever. It is the only sports game I own on the system or any system I have owned since the Dreamcast died. There is a reason for that. So our opinions on that game couldn't be more opposite. I consider any game that could use those controls not using them a waste and not worth bothering with.
Kitschkraft
Member
agrajag said:
I tend to agree, although, if anyone could do it, Apple would be the one to bet on.....the "cool factor" surrounding this company is just insane.
bdouble said:
Not to say he does it, but it pisses me off to no end when people say their wrist is tired pointing at the screen, only to go to their house and see them standing up in front of the TV, arm fully stretched out.
I beat metroid prime 3 on lying down on my bed. The whole "mah wrist hurts waaa wiimote sucks" is complete, complete bullshit.
on that topic time for a rant:
It also bugs me when people try to imitate 1:1 and then complain when they fall short and blame it on the controller. The things they try to imitate (baseball swinging, exaggerated arm flicking) TAKE FUCKING ENERGY TO DO MORONS. DID YOU EXPECT THE FUCKING CONTROLLER TO GIVE YOU FREE ENERGY OR SOMETHING?
Psychotext
Member
Gaming may be a leap too far for "cool".Liara T'Soni said:
MWS Natural
Member
I can't for for next gen. Mind waggle ftw.
I want no next gen system talk until 2010 at the earliest. I think the systems should roll out on 2011-2012.
A 6-7 year lifetime (ala PS2) would be great for all systems.
I'd be worried if all we get is major HW revision. Next Gen games are extremely expensive to produce, I cant imagine how much Next-Next Gen games are gonna cost if the HW leap is comparable from PS2-PS3
A 6-7 year lifetime (ala PS2) would be great for all systems.
I'd be worried if all we get is major HW revision. Next Gen games are extremely expensive to produce, I cant imagine how much Next-Next Gen games are gonna cost if the HW leap is comparable from PS2-PS3
amar212 said:
Size of medium and resolution output have zero correlation. With compression getting better all the time, procedurally generated content, faster read times and other factors BRD might be the the medium for games might for a while. Especially if mandatory installs become the norm. Then the data can be uncompressed onto the hard drive.
The reason PS3 games are so big right now is because the read/seek times are so damn slow it has to be uncompressed.
Digital copies will become more and more viable though. Being able to purchase the disc or download will be the first step and probably pretty healthy next gen. I like the option and love the idea of just one time install with the disc then its registered online so I can play it at any time ala Steam.