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January 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th

D

donny2112

Member
goomba said:
Why don't wii u numbers count towards points?
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Because a small difference in absolute terms (e.g. 10K) could be a big difference in % terms (e.g. 20%), if the system sells a low amount (e.g. 50K). Compared to a system selling okay (e.g. 150K) where the same absolute difference translates to a much more reasonable % (e.g. 6.7%). It's also really easy to get 0 pts with a low-selling system without being off that much in absolute terms. Don't want low-selling systems severely messing with the points month-to-month.

goomba said:
why is the ps vita not included at all?
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It was on units-only all of last year already, didn't show any signs of improvement, and actually dropped YOY. Plus, predicting for 6 systems in units is already kind of too much. :/
 
A

archnemesis

Member
We're expecting new NPD data on Thursday. Global sales data is a bit irregular. Hardware data can sometimes be calculated from Nintendo's fiscal reports. There are also sporadic numbers from various PR statements.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
donny2112 said:
Because a small difference in absolute terms (e.g. 10K) could be a big difference in % terms (e.g. 20%), if the system sells a low amount (e.g. 50K). Compared to a system selling okay (e.g. 150K) where the same absolute difference translates to a much more reasonable % (e.g. 6.7%). It's also really easy to get 0 pts with a low-selling system without being off that much in absolute terms. Don't want low-selling systems severely messing with the points month-to-month.



It was on units-only all of last year already, didn't show any signs of improvement, and actually dropped YOY. Plus, predicting for 6 systems in units is already kind of too much. :/
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Don't forget about the emotional component of it. PS Vita is dead in USA retail, so it's sad predicting dead numbers every month...I don't know...it's not fun anymore...it's just draining.

It's like predicting DS or PSP numbers...where's the fun in it?


shinra-bansho said:
I would assume famousmortimer is referring to some sort of internal tracking data from either company that he's been privy to rather than NPD?
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Microsoft and Sony both track shipments, and can reasonably estimate sell-through just through conversations they have with major retailers.

I do think that both companies rely on NPD for precise sell-through numbers, though. Anything that famousmortimer would have received would be an "indication," not an absolute fact.

I don't know, I'm skeptical and relatively stubborn about these kind of things. But just in case, I revised my Xbox One predictions down from 256K to 206K.
 
F

famousmortimer

Banned
The info I had/have was just off the first two weeks of the month. Things could have turned around.

Anyway, I'm awful at predictions so here goes nothing.

[360] 104k
[3DS] 130K
[PS3] 88k
[PS4] 235k
[WIU] 54k
[XB1] 110k



Im guessing a slow month all around which means the opposite is likely true.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Major retail video game releases to look out for in January 2014 NPD:

[WIU] Wii Fit U (Nintendo) (23 days of tracking)

[PS4] Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition (Square Enix) (5 days of tracking)
[XB1] Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition (Square Enix) (5 days of tracking)

[360] Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Z (Namco Bandai) (5 days of tracking)
[PS3] Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Z (Namco Bandai) (5 days of tracking)

Video game releases will start ramping up in February...January is always a very slow month.
 
I

Into

Member
Aquamarine said:
Pachter's Predictions:

[360] 140K
[3DS] 130K
[PS3] 100K
[PS4] 375K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 350K
Click to expand...


Pachters numbers seem rather optimistic for January? If numbers land close to that then that is pretty good for both MS and Sony, above 300k in January is rather good for 499 and 399 products.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
famousmortimer said:
The info I had/have was just off the first two weeks of the month. Things could have turned around.

Anyway, I'm awful at predictions so here goes nothing.

[360] 104k
[3DS] 130K
[PS3] 88k
[PS4] 235k
[WIU] 54k
[XB1] 110k



Im guessing a slow month all around which means the opposite is likely true.
Click to expand...

Are your predictions based off the info you saw because if so next gen is not off to a good start despite the record breaking launches.
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
famousmortimer said:
The info I had/have was just off the first two weeks of the month. Things could have turned around.

Anyway, I'm awful at predictions so here goes nothing.

[360] 104k
[3DS] 130K
[PS3] 88k
[PS4] 235k
[WIU] 54k
[XB1] 110k



Im guessing a slow month all around which means the opposite is likely true.
Click to expand...

That's the lowest xb1 prediction I've seen since Chobel edited out 90k.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
shinra-bansho said:
I would assume famousmortimer is referring to some sort of internal tracking data from either company that he's been privy to rather than NPD?
Click to expand...

That's what I assumed when I read the tweet originally. It was on the 29th of Jan. I think so, doubt NPD would provide numbers but they'll have their own internal estimates. I doubt mort's seen the numbers but more like heard whispers from people inside both groups that suggest numbers will be interesting and in what direction.

famousmortimer said:
The info I had/have was just off the first two weeks of the month. Things could have turned around.
Click to expand...

Ah ok that makes more sense considering the date when you stated as much. Should be a fun NPD thread no matter what though :p
 
F

famousmortimer

Banned
I didn't see numbers. In general I never get numbers because these companies are extremely secretive about them. In fact I would assume there is much more curiosity at sony/ms about who creamsugar is than who cboat is.


What I was told by someone who saw Microsoft's own internal tracking was that the first few weeks were far below their projections. Anecdotally there have been some pretty good deals in the last two weeks for the xb1. Maybe that helped. Maybe it didn't. Looking forward to Thursday.

Also, all I get from Sony people is they sell everything they ship... which we all know, of course. So i just guesstimate they shipped somewhere around 250k. Went a little lower because of bad weather during the month. Actually weather was why I put everything lower. The US economy in general was shit in January because of it.
 
W

weeeeezy

Banned
demigod said:
Lol @ his The One numbers. No way is it that high for January. Cant wait to see PS4 trounce it this Thursday. Wonder what nelson will spin this time.
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43396140.jpg
 
P

pharmboy044

Member
famousmortimer said:
I didn't see numbers. In general I never get numbers because these companies are extremely secretive about them. In fact I would assume there is much more curiosity at sony/ms about who creamsugar is than who cboat is.


What I was told by someone who saw Microsoft's own internal tracking was that the first few weeks were far below their projections. Anecdotally there have been some pretty good deals in the last two weeks for the xb1. Maybe that helped. Maybe it didn't. Looking forward to Thursday.

Also, all I get from Sony people is they sell everything they ship... which we all know, of course. So i just guesstimate they shipped somewhere around 250k. Went a little lower because of bad weather during the month. Actually weather was why I put everything lower. The US economy in general was shit in January because of it.
Click to expand...
If companies are super secretive about their numbers, any idea how Sony reacted at Aaron Greenberg giving away Sony numbers to the public?
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
This is a throwaway month for me, I have no clue what will happen. This month's outcome will help shape obviously what I expect as the year goes forward, but for this month itself, I'm almost throwing numbers out at random.

[360] 140K
[3DS] 180K
[PS3] 65K
[PS4] 400K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 200K
 
A

Anth0ny

Member
[360] 130K
[3DS] 220K
[PS3] 100K
[PS4] 350K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 250K

edit: just realized I got 2nd place for the december NPD predictions. holy shit. how did i do that

clearly i can see into the future :O
 
H

heidern

Junior Member
[360] 104K
[3DS] 135K
[PS3] 80K
[PS4] 230K
[WIU] 100K
[XB1] 146K

Only 4 week month? Sales will be relatively low compared to what happened last year. PS4 is supply constrained. Xbone will suffer at $499 in a January in a weak economy. Wii U collapsed last year after the launch months when the people that were waiting for one got it over the holidays but wider audience had no interest. The price cut, a bigger library and momentum from Mario 3D Land should give this years performance a bit more solidity and I imagine Nintendo made some adjustments to their marketing. 3DS will be unspectacular. PS3/360 will be weak too with the relatively high prices.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
donny2112 said:
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Jan-2014

1. PS4 - 361K
2. XB1 - 252K
3. 3DS - 200K
4. 360 - 137K
5. PS3 - 95K
6. WIU - 65K
Click to expand...

So it seems like GAF is predicting for PS4 to overtake Wii U install-base in January 2014.


As of December 2013:

Wii U - 2.1 million (425K November launch + 463K December launch + 507K January through October + 223K 2nd November + 481K 2nd December)

PS4 - 2.0 million (1138K November launch + 863K December launch)

Xbox One - 1.8 million (909K November launch + 908K December launch)



GAF's predictions:

PS4 - 2.0 million December LTD + 0.361 million January = 2.361 million January LTD

Wii U - 2.1 million December LTD + 0.065 million January = 2.165 million January LTD

Xbox One - 1.8 million December LTD + 0.252 million January = 2.052 million January LTD
 
B

Brad Grenz

Member
Graphics Horse said:
That's the lowest xb1 prediction I've seen since Chobel edited out 90k.
Click to expand...

I kinda feel like he'll be really close with that Xbox One guess. I believe there's a strong chance the Xbox One numbers will go off a cliff for January the way WiiU did last year. I'd guess around 120K with the PS4 as much as three times that. 85% drops are pretty normal for Dec to Jan, and Xbox One doesn't have the typical supply shortage hold over you usually see post Christmas after a launch to buoy the numbers in the new year.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
Aquamarine said:
Pachter's Predictions:

[360] 140K
[3DS] 130K
[PS3] 100K
[PS4] 375K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 350K
Click to expand...

Interesting that the guy who predicted PS4 on top last month when XB1 beat it is only predicting a 25K margin with PS4 still having constrained availability. Did PS4 shipments drop that much to NA, or are we just assuming there's a huge differential from pre-holiday drop shipments?
 
A

A_Gorilla

Banned
Tomorrow can't come fast enough. I really feel January will give us a clearer picture of how this Gen will play out (at least for the US)
 
B

BoboBrazil

Member
A_Gorilla said:
Tomorrow can't come fast enough. I really feel January will give us a clearer picture of how this Gen will play out (at least for the US)
Click to expand...

It's pretty clear already how it played out looking at the deals retailers are making on the Xbox One. Things will only get worse for MS as Sony is able to get more and more stock to retailers.
 
J

jayu26

Member
A_Gorilla said:
Tomorrow can't come fast enough. I really feel January will give us a clearer picture of how this Gen will play out (at least for the US)
Click to expand...
Although I expect PS4 to come out on top in US at the end of generation, I don't think January numbers are going to indicate any pattern to come.
BoboBrazil said:
It's pretty clear already how it played out looking at the deals retailers are making on the Xbox One. Things will only get worse for MS as Sony is able to get more and more stock to retailers.
Click to expand...
May be, but I expect March to go in the xbone's favor because of TitanFall.
 
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