$100 price difference in a recessed economy with no system-seller differentiators outside of the holidays is a bad combination. Once PS4 stock becomes readily available, expect it to consistently sell more for the immediate future. Will have to see if Microsoft does something drastic like remove Kinect requirements and sell a games-focused version of the system for the same price as PS4.
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January 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
BoboBrazil
Member
Hard to say. Alot of sales might go to 360 or PC. It's also hard to say if Infamous will be a system seller in March for Sony. Titanfall will definitely be the bigger game sales wise thanks to MS marketing imo, but I think PS4 will still outsell it overall. PC and 360 availability of Titanfall hurts the system selling ability of it.
shinra-bansho
Member
I think in the long term they will bring out some sort of subsidized/payment plan version with a XBL Gold contract or something, since they've failed to bring any cable company to the table. Similar to the $99 360.
They already kinda sorta gave that with the new Gamestop deal don't they?
Dragonborn
Member
In NA Titanfall X1 will sell more; however, I think WW, inFamous will outsell Titanfall X1. I also think it'll boost the X1 for a week or two and then it'll just fall back to normal. A lot of people buying an X1 for Titanfall have already done so
shinra-bansho
Member
I think that's more a GameStop initiative? Perhaps they have an excess of stock they need to move.
SwiftDeath
Member
I believe the Gamestop layaway program to move GS stock of XB1 much like Walmart with their free game with XB1 to move their stock
I know I'm late, but just for the record:
[360] 98,000
[3DS] 155,000
[PS3] 72,000
[PS4] 230,000
[WIU] 74,000
[XB1] 175,000
[PSV] 11,500
Some extra information on why I picked those numbers.
Current-gen (PS3/X360)
PS3 has the lowest number, 72,000, because I believe strong PS4 numbers (230,000) will have some impact on PS3 numbers (customers who go like "well, I'm already spending this much, might as well go for the PS4").
X360 numbers, 98,000, are strong for the time of the year. Xbox One has had some influence on these numbers, but since the price difference (between X360-XB1) is quite big, the amount of people thinking "I'm already spending this much, might as well go for XB1", will be smaller.
Next-gen (PS4/XB1)
XB1 numbers (175,000) are slightly lower than PS4 (235,000). The PlayStation brand in the USA is growing (this all started, as you might remember, when Microsoft announced the Xbox One with its DRM and Used Games policies).
Combine this momentum for PS4 with the higher price of the Xbox One and I believe that the sales ratio will be 10:13 in favour of PS4 (e.g. for every Xbox One sold, 1.3 PS4s will be sold). I can even see a 1.4 ratio happening.
That said, Xbox is still a very strong brand in the United States. Unlike some others here, I think Xbox One will have performed quite well this January.
Handheld (Vita/3DS)
3DS continues to perform very well and will have a very succesful month. PS Vita will underperform with just 11,500 units sold. The main reason the 3DS does so well is because parents and children love the 'Nintendo console'. Indeed, it is not the hardcore gamer but it are the casuals who are making the 3DS succesful. And yep, I'm saying parents have had a huge influence on the 3DS being so succesful.
PS Vita, in the future, will not be able to do much better as it does not have the proper mindshare amongst parents and children. PS Vita can be 'saved', however, by PS4 owners (e.g. what Sony is trying to do now: perfect companion device, Remote Play, etc.). Also, PlayStation Now might have a positive influence on Vita sales in the future.
Wii U (that thing on which we cannot decide whether it is current- or next-gen)
Wii U sales will come in at 74,000. I realize that this is on the high-end of what many people here expect, but I think Wii U will have some momentum from the holiday season (e.g. the drop in sales, compared to December, won't be as big as many expect).
Nintendo will continue to face problems with the Wii U with the main problem being that many people simply do not know that this is the successor to the Wii.
[360] 98,000
[3DS] 155,000
[PS3] 72,000
[PS4] 230,000
[WIU] 74,000
[XB1] 175,000
[PSV] 11,500
Some extra information on why I picked those numbers.
Current-gen (PS3/X360)
PS3 has the lowest number, 72,000, because I believe strong PS4 numbers (230,000) will have some impact on PS3 numbers (customers who go like "well, I'm already spending this much, might as well go for the PS4").
X360 numbers, 98,000, are strong for the time of the year. Xbox One has had some influence on these numbers, but since the price difference (between X360-XB1) is quite big, the amount of people thinking "I'm already spending this much, might as well go for XB1", will be smaller.
Next-gen (PS4/XB1)
XB1 numbers (175,000) are slightly lower than PS4 (235,000). The PlayStation brand in the USA is growing (this all started, as you might remember, when Microsoft announced the Xbox One with its DRM and Used Games policies).
Combine this momentum for PS4 with the higher price of the Xbox One and I believe that the sales ratio will be 10:13 in favour of PS4 (e.g. for every Xbox One sold, 1.3 PS4s will be sold). I can even see a 1.4 ratio happening.
That said, Xbox is still a very strong brand in the United States. Unlike some others here, I think Xbox One will have performed quite well this January.
Handheld (Vita/3DS)
3DS continues to perform very well and will have a very succesful month. PS Vita will underperform with just 11,500 units sold. The main reason the 3DS does so well is because parents and children love the 'Nintendo console'. Indeed, it is not the hardcore gamer but it are the casuals who are making the 3DS succesful. And yep, I'm saying parents have had a huge influence on the 3DS being so succesful.
PS Vita, in the future, will not be able to do much better as it does not have the proper mindshare amongst parents and children. PS Vita can be 'saved', however, by PS4 owners (e.g. what Sony is trying to do now: perfect companion device, Remote Play, etc.). Also, PlayStation Now might have a positive influence on Vita sales in the future.
Wii U (that thing on which we cannot decide whether it is current- or next-gen)
Wii U sales will come in at 74,000. I realize that this is on the high-end of what many people here expect, but I think Wii U will have some momentum from the holiday season (e.g. the drop in sales, compared to December, won't be as big as many expect).
Nintendo will continue to face problems with the Wii U with the main problem being that many people simply do not know that this is the successor to the Wii.
pieatorium
Member
S¡mon;100616843 said:
Ps3 will be low and ps4 is having an effect but 240k wouldn't be a strong number for ps4 thats passable not strong. I agree that 360 wont be affected as much as ps3 through lower entry price and the hottest kids game going (minecraft) will see it cling around longer than the others
Again i think your numbers are low/mediocre not good. Even the ps3 broke 240k in its first januaryS¡mon;100616843 said:
S¡mon;100616843 said:
again 155k is a pretty meh result but i think thats the best that ca be hoped for in the current handheld market unfortunately.
S¡mon;100616843 said:
I actually think the wiiu will have a bigger drop in january compared to the others. Its terrible november but much better although still not great december i think shows that the system has no traction outside of a holiday gift.
BrokenIcarus
Member
At what time will we get the results today?
pieatorium
Member
about 11hrs time
shinra-bansho
Member
Hmm, I don't really see why the PS4 wouldn't affect the 360 in the same way it will affect the PS3 if #thethirstisreal. I don't really know if brand loyalty will play that much of a role going forward out of the post-launch period.
pieatorium
Member
360 is basically the "low" cost kids console i think that will slow its falls compared to the other old systems
shinra-bansho
Member
I think it will remain the console of default for those who are intent on buying a last gen system in the US, true. And the bargain SKU will largely serve the role the PS2 did post-7th gen launch.
I was referring more to the idea posited above that someone may be willing to spend a little more to get a PS4 rather than a PS3, but wouldn't be willing to spend a little more to get a Xbox One rather than a 360... it omits the obvious other situation that one may be willing to spend a little bit more to get a PS4 rather than a 360.
While I think there are certainly lock-in effects that may be in play this gen due to online accounts and friends lists that weren't as strong in the past, I don't think that brand loyalty is going to carry far in the US any more than it has in the UK.
Insane Metal
Member
27 minutes to go?
Nope. 6 hours and 52 minutes. There's a countdown link in the OP.
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?month=2&day=13&year=2014&hour=18&min=30&sec=00&p0=263
Insane Metal
Member
Ughh, sorry :s
1st Course
Member
Finally an update on NPD digital tracking plan:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...come-the-fear-and-trepidation-on-digital-data
Been almost a year since we heard anything from them about it.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...come-the-fear-and-trepidation-on-digital-data
Been almost a year since we heard anything from them about it.
pharmboy044
Member
So hyped! We all know ps4 won this NPD, I just want to see how major spinner spins this one.
PS4 supply has been very constrained. I wouldn't be surprised if the XB1 was aheah this month.
SwiftDeath
Member
Probably easier like this
Due note, this is for the time NPD report goes live. We usually get our information an hour to an hour and a half afterwards I believe
PS4 has inFamous in March and its a full exclusive. Then it also has Ground Zeroes which will most definitely push more PS4s than Xbox Ones. I think it depends on how many people are willing to spend $620 to play Titanfall.
On the flip side though, I think Titanfall is going to get more "word of mouth" than Infamous due to it being a multiplayer game. Longer legs, more addictive, etc.
We'll see though. Still planning on getting a PS4 sometime late this year or early 2015 for Infamous and The Order (well, if they will be really good games).
RealityPales
Member
Probably easier like this
Due note, this is for the time NPD report goes live. We usually get our information an hour to an hour and a half afterwards I believe
EDIT: Better yet -
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
Xbox One: ~375,000
PS4: ~330,000
WiiU: ~Not Good
Edit: Shit, I'm late. Sorry.
PS4: ~330,000
WiiU: ~Not Good
Edit: Shit, I'm late. Sorry.
Xb1 a 100k over ps4 ? Child please
Aquamarine
Member
Probably easier like this
Due note, this is for the time NPD report goes live. We usually get our information an hour to an hour and a half afterwards I believe
The NPD report goes live after market close (4 PM EST), so 2 hours and 30 minutes for those of us who have the numbers.
The 6:30 PM figure is the generally accepted time that NPD PR / Sony PR / Microsoft PR / Nintendo PR releases.
SwiftDeath
Member
ah ok thank for the clarification Aqua
I just hope we at least get numbers out of MS. If they stop giving us numbers then it might get bad in the NPD threads
theprodigy
Member
༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ Give NPD
(lol)
what notable January releases were there anyway
(lol)
what notable January releases were there anyway
Aquamarine
Member
velvet_nitemare
Member
That January 2013 NPD thread was pretty hilarious
PS4 was supply constraint. Just like it was in DEC, while xbox was not. Hence, I expect same type of difference. With slight edge to Xb1 like in Dec.
SwiftDeath
Member
Until PR responses generally start arriving as Aqua corrected me on
Probably easier like this
ethomaz
Banned
Thanks.... 3 hours yet
spatenfloot
Member
I think this one will be more interesting.
SymbiantXenos
Member
Thought the results were next week for some reason. So only four short hours to go
That thread destroyed lives
Well maybe a tad (but only a tad) exaggerated but the news of the Wii U collapse was monumental, changed the nature of the gaming side on GAF.
That is the power of the first January/February NPD for newly released consoles, you typically get a story that unfolds for the rest of the year.
RealityPales
Member
Doubtful. I think we're going to see PS4 lead by a small margin. PS4 was not constrained as much in Jan as it was in Dec. That's just pure holiday-period logic. It was also available at major retailers more frequently throughout the month. Definitely leaning towards a PS4 month.
But 100K in favor of XBO?
SwiftDeath
Member
Thanks.... 3 hours yet
Y'all are lucky. I have to drive someone to the airport in 4 hours so will likely miss some of the number leaks as they happen after the PR statements
I should really go back and read that thread. Must've been insane
Wonder if today's will have any similar effects
anexanhume
Member
If either of PS4 or XB1 are similarly small or the PS4 to XB1 ratio is ~1.5 or higher, I would expect a reaction of the same magnitude overall.
Of course, that's outside of low Wii U numbers. I think people would accept low numbers there pretty easily.
The possibility is there if Xbox One sales dipped as much as the supply seems to indicate. That's the data point I'm most interested in this month - the first look at how it will do outside of the holiday sales rush. We have plenty of anecdoates but the next three months will be our first real look at how things are going to shake out in the near term.
jiminycracken
Banned
If most people on GAF are to be believed, most likely XB1 will be tiny compared to PS4, XB1 gets boost from those leaks and stuff Feb, PS4 starts to slow down as supply catches up to demand, March will be XB1 as (arguably) more people are looking towards Titanfall than Infamous, then when price drop happens later in the year a lot of GAF will pick up an Xbox One and the difference between PS4 and Xbox will stay the same or close from that point on.
Right, neither is going to bomb. It's all relative to one another.
anexanhume
Member
Yeah, there's lots of interesting scenarios. We know XB1 isn't supply constrained at all so we should see pure demand for the first time.
We'll also see PS4 pure supply to NA given it was supply constrained for most areas the entire month. This could indicate how much was drop-shipped for the holidays, how much is being diverted or stock piled for other regions and Japan and how true that 1.5M production capacity seems.
Depending on this month, February may be downright boring. March will be interesting because of Infamous and TitanFall. Then I think the numbers will be absolutely boring for several months until we hit releases like The Order, Sunset Overdrive and other exclusives. I'd expect multi-platform releases will have minimal sales impacts until we hit big titles like Destiny and other Fall regulars.