Aaron Strife
Banned
Btw there's another elections forecaster, Sam Wang who has Democratic odds a little higher than Nate. His record is better than Nate's as well.
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Fivethirtyeight has Republicans at almost 70% chance of taking the Senate.
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Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
Damn right it is. The pretentiousness and arrogance of Democrats and, particularly, liberals has finally reached the breaking point.
Tides... How do they work? They've turned.
airmangataosenai
Member
Just for a baseline,3 races are more or less guaranteed to go for the Dems next cycle meaning for certain that even in the worst case scenatio the Dems will absolutely control the Senate after 2016:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2010
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are all areas the Dems will be able to pick up with minimal effort. Anything beyond this would be padding the numbers for 2018 where the Republicans might see some gains again. I don't expect Dems to have to worry about defending any seats they held in 2010 barring a huge scandal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2010
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are all areas the Dems will be able to pick up with minimal effort. Anything beyond this would be padding the numbers for 2018 where the Republicans might see some gains again. I don't expect Dems to have to worry about defending any seats they held in 2010 barring a huge scandal.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Now we get to see just how vulnerable the Democrats are to the "unskewed polls" syndrome that befell the Republicans the last time around. I would hope that no one is that blind, considering how swimmingly well that went before. Then again, I'm often amazed at the short term nature of political memory. Even in this day and age of internets.
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thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Around the year 2000, a republican congress pushes wall street deregulation into law, setting up for the 2008 crash. George Bush has 8 years and a mostly republican congress where he does absolutely nothing to scout out and stop the 2008 crash.
When democrats get handed the keys to fixed that screw up, republicans filibuster everything in 2009 and 2010 slowing things down a bunch. Republicans then take the house and attach Obamacare repeals/delays to everything, while trying to remove everything democrats like about existing bills whenever they come up for renewals, knowing democrats can't accept that, slowing things down to a complete halt.
But we're fed up with how Democrats haven't done enough to fix the problems Republicans made with all the obstructions Republicans are putting them through, so it's time to try something different and go with Republicans, I guess.
And because a couple red state democrats joined the republican filibuster when they had the supermajority, and one democrat signed those deregulations into law, apparently the entire democrat party is 100% equally bad as the republicans, so why vote for any of them at all?
When democrats get handed the keys to fixed that screw up, republicans filibuster everything in 2009 and 2010 slowing things down a bunch. Republicans then take the house and attach Obamacare repeals/delays to everything, while trying to remove everything democrats like about existing bills whenever they come up for renewals, knowing democrats can't accept that, slowing things down to a complete halt.
But we're fed up with how Democrats haven't done enough to fix the problems Republicans made with all the obstructions Republicans are putting them through, so it's time to try something different and go with Republicans, I guess.
And because a couple red state democrats joined the republican filibuster when they had the supermajority, and one democrat signed those deregulations into law, apparently the entire democrat party is 100% equally bad as the republicans, so why vote for any of them at all?
They really are probably not going to do much.
Number 1 priority is probably immigration. Closing some of those loopholes that have caused a recent ruckus.
They will not have the numbers to kill Obamacare, but they will attempt to remove pieces of it that are especially unpopular.
You can expect a dialogue that is much more aggressive towards Russia, ISIS and other presumed terrorist threats, and more vocal support for Israel.
Obama will become even more lame duck, and anything he is trying to do currently will require executive orders and such in order to get done.
There will be some less interesting things involving energy that they will be highly involved in.
Really they cannot go crazy because they will have the majority, but they will not have complete power.
A few things that will not happen.
They will not make a significant push to ban or block gay marriage.
They will not make a significant push to ban or block marijuana.
They will not aggressively try and ban abortion.
Number 1 priority is probably immigration. Closing some of those loopholes that have caused a recent ruckus.
They will not have the numbers to kill Obamacare, but they will attempt to remove pieces of it that are especially unpopular.
You can expect a dialogue that is much more aggressive towards Russia, ISIS and other presumed terrorist threats, and more vocal support for Israel.
Obama will become even more lame duck, and anything he is trying to do currently will require executive orders and such in order to get done.
There will be some less interesting things involving energy that they will be highly involved in.
Really they cannot go crazy because they will have the majority, but they will not have complete power.
A few things that will not happen.
They will not make a significant push to ban or block gay marriage.
They will not make a significant push to ban or block marijuana.
They will not aggressively try and ban abortion.
Aaron Strife
Banned
To be fair, if the Senate elections were fully national Democrats would probably retain a majority.
Expect the GOP to push more regressive voting policies to make up for their disadvantage in the EC. Can't expand your voter base? Do the next best thing and kneecap your opponent's voter base as much as possible.
See you in 2016.
airmangataosenai
Member
Also, where does this notion come from that the Electoral College is more stacked in the Dems favor than the popular vote? Republicans prefer it for a reason, and that reason is the over representation red states receive in the midwest thanks to the Senate.
It's worth noting -- and remember this when people tell you Dems dropped the ball in the Senate should they lose -- that since they won back the majority in 2006, Senate Democrats have consistently exceeded expectations. They won not only nearly everywhere they were supposed to, but in places where they messed up (i.e. Pennsylvania) they made up for in spades in Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri. Scott Brown had a short-lived period of bragging rights for having Ted Kennedy's seat but Elizabeth Warren took care of that.
To put it simply, they overperformed. I'm surprised they were able to hold on to the Senate in 2012 quite frankly.
The only Democrat who fucked up big time is Bruce Braley, who talked shit on the voting populace in a hidden video that severely hurt the party's chances in Iowa this year. That was a huge, huge mistake, and from 2006-2014 is honestly the one single thing I can think of that Democrats REALLY got wrong when campaigning for the Senate.
And even with all of that being said, this year heavily favors Republicans by default because of a. the seats in play and what states they are in and b. how that relates to turnout in a midterm election. This isn't even factoring in Obama's approval rating, Ebola, Isis, the economy, etc. yet. It's just a bad map for Democrats, period.
Democrats have basically done everything they could possibly do to hold the Senate, outlasting my initial prediction that they'd lose it no matter what in 2012 (even with Obama re-elected). Depending on how things go, Braley might end up being the guy who keeps it from being 50-50 or 51-49, and if that's the case that would be a shame. That said, if he loses there's a good chance Begich, Landrieu, Hagan etc. could lose too so it won't even matter (which may very well happen).
To put it simply, they overperformed. I'm surprised they were able to hold on to the Senate in 2012 quite frankly.
The only Democrat who fucked up big time is Bruce Braley, who talked shit on the voting populace in a hidden video that severely hurt the party's chances in Iowa this year. That was a huge, huge mistake, and from 2006-2014 is honestly the one single thing I can think of that Democrats REALLY got wrong when campaigning for the Senate.
And even with all of that being said, this year heavily favors Republicans by default because of a. the seats in play and what states they are in and b. how that relates to turnout in a midterm election. This isn't even factoring in Obama's approval rating, Ebola, Isis, the economy, etc. yet. It's just a bad map for Democrats, period.
Democrats have basically done everything they could possibly do to hold the Senate, outlasting my initial prediction that they'd lose it no matter what in 2012 (even with Obama re-elected). Depending on how things go, Braley might end up being the guy who keeps it from being 50-50 or 51-49, and if that's the case that would be a shame. That said, if he loses there's a good chance Begich, Landrieu, Hagan etc. could lose too so it won't even matter (which may very well happen).
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Technically, both the EC and popular vote are heavily stacked in the Dems favor currently.
Bams has the second and third highest popular vote totals of any pres since the Reagan sweep. And they currently have an all but assured EC vote total of 254. States that Bams won by at least 5%. That's if Dem candidates are starting from that at least.
Not many would buy that line. For better or worse (generally worse), people believe it's the president who runs the economy, either into the sky or into the ground. Dems can claim the economy as a victory if it continues to improve in 2016.
The moral of the story is get out and vote, you dumb people.
CrocMother
Banned
Most young voters prefer republicans according to recent polls...I don't understand how that is possible.
m_shortpants
Member
If Republicans win the White House, this country is fucked. We'll probably have another useless war in 2018 to get the candidate reelected, and the economy will suffer further.
If we get a democrat for President, then they will veto everything that comes out of congress and nothing will happen for the next 4 years.
We're screwed either way.
If we get a democrat for President, then they will veto everything that comes out of congress and nothing will happen for the next 4 years.
We're screwed either way.
8 years of hillary being filibustered by republicans? can't wait. -_-
Opposed to an insane GOP agenda that will be even worse?
Young Democrats are too busy working to answer their phones or to actively be polled.
milquetoast
Banned
If Hilary can't get anything done I don't think she'd get 8 years. She doesn't exactly have a winning personality or Obama charm.
milquetoast
Banned
their parents voted for Obama and their local Democrat. rebellion.
Link
The Autumn Wind
Why?
Democrats have a way better work ethic, I've found, over the many years.
Generally, I've noticed that Republicans are more likely to whine and moan about everything, overreact and not think before they act/speak/raise a concern, think they have it worse than everyone else, get overly emotional and pick on other people for asinine reasons, call off/go home all the fucking time, act like a victim etc. etc., and think they should be entitled to better treatment in their workplace... but don't vote for laws that would be the only means by which you'd be able to have a better workplace become a reality -- or think that only they should be entitled to better treatment and by voting for Republicans will somehow lead to an outcome that only favors people like them, which is a pipe dream. The best you'll get is petty bullshit like drug testing for food stamps.
It's like they know it could be better but have been brainwashed into voting against their self-interests and they can't deal with it. They can't keep anything inside, they cannot deal with holding down a job and take it out on everybody else.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
The oddity though is that on a national scale the majority are against Republican policies, odd how that works.
It's not going to happen with any other Democrat in officer either, if the "stonewall everything" strategy works out for them. Hell, democrats will probably get in on it too when the positions reverse.
This type of "governing" needs to be smacked down immediately.
sineclamor
Member
To those who follow these things more closely than I, what kind of damage could this do to abortion rights and the progress made in recent years on marriage equality? There's a "prop 1" here in Tennessee that's a pretty straightforward attack on abortion, with banners hanging off of church signs demanding a yes, I'd imagine it'll pass when God is literally telling people how to vote. But gay marriage, you can't untumble those dominoes, can you?
exmachina64
Banned
The ACA catalyzed opposition toward him in the early years, he basically spent all of his political capital (in his first term, at least) ensuring its passage.
Not unless they can convince enough democrats to vote with them to overturn a veto.
Oh, Bulbo, I look forward to all of your political posts in 2016.
This is the real threat. It doesn't matter how much Republicans limit voting in Alabama, there aren't enough liberals to vote Democrat in the most liberal areas. It matters in the swing states.
I'm starting to dislike"liberals" almost as equally as conservatives. Just a fucking useless voting block when you really need it. All of this bullshit could of been avoided in 2010 if the same god damn people who voted for Obama in 2008 just fucking showed up to vote.
RustyNails
Member
Enjoy it bilbo, enjoy it goooood. But come election night 2016 you'd wish you were living in canada
The Republicans, if they're lucky, will have a 51 or 52 seat majority. As superficial as that is, they'll try to act like they have a mandate like how they did in 2011 when they gained control of the House.
What I don't think people understand is that there were Republicans that were voted in the tea party wave in 2010 in states like Illinois and Wisconsin and to a lesser extent Florida and New Hampshire that usually in normal circumstances and in recent presidential years vote for Democrats. They will have to defend their seats in a presidential election year which by default favors Democrats in 2016. Baring a national disaster, I don't think that they'll try and run with a conservative wet dream knowing that their odds of keeping their seats are no more than 50/50 under normal circumstances. Also there's Susan Collins in Maine who's pretty moderate too.
What I don't think people understand is that there were Republicans that were voted in the tea party wave in 2010 in states like Illinois and Wisconsin and to a lesser extent Florida and New Hampshire that usually in normal circumstances and in recent presidential years vote for Democrats. They will have to defend their seats in a presidential election year which by default favors Democrats in 2016. Baring a national disaster, I don't think that they'll try and run with a conservative wet dream knowing that their odds of keeping their seats are no more than 50/50 under normal circumstances. Also there's Susan Collins in Maine who's pretty moderate too.
Hope you're prepared to be disappointed when the Republican civil war breaks out and they don't get anything done for 2 years and then lose seats in 2016.
unholyrevenger72
Banned
As the education system gets worse the more likely they are to vote for idiots, Republicans got the strategy down pat.
Yeah, that's pretty much been the game plan from the beginning.
I'm in graduate school and the undergraduates who are 5 years younger than me have no formative memory of Bush or the Bush era starting from when they were politically aware. They're basically associating bad times with Obama and Democrats and didn't experience the cause. Attendance in the Young Democrats at this flagship University is a third of what it was when I first came here. So many are falling into the quasi libertarianism like Ron or Rand Paul.
Frustrated_Grunt
Member
Well, best I can do is vote for my guy even though he's most likely going to lose. Lindsey Graham pretty much has it on lock.
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thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Well, it'd inhibit Obama's ability to appoint liberal judges, making it more likely that judges rule abortion restrictions as constitutional.
But mostly that sort of thing is local, with governors and state legislators being the biggest deciding factor. And in the case of Tennessee, it's pretty clear which way that's going to go...
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
If you're a young likely voter in this election year then odds are you're probably Republican because no one really cares. 2010 will probably have higher turnout than this year which I suspect will be really really low.
You bring up an interesting point. I've maintained that the Republican party is actually playing defense in a sense that they can't pick up significant numbers in years like this one when the map and the type of election are in their favor. I've told my conservative friends that the Republicans need at least 55 seats to start getting anything done but they're looking to only get a maximum of 52 and they'll be working with more moderate republicans that won't want to go along with an extremely conservative agenda or anything that would hurt them or their blue and swing state constituents.
Point is, I see this race as a last gasp at least with regards to the Senate. They won't get another good map or chance to get a lot of seats like this for a long time, if ever, if they don't get a high enough majority. Not to mention that but if there are no national disasters and Hillary runs then the Republicans will lose the Presidency and lose even more influence in the courts which are 1/3 Obama appointees.
I always mention to people in my age group (26) and younger that want to vote for a Ron or Rand Paul type that it's too bad that the Republicans hate Ron/Rand Paul and their policies. A young person may like the Paul's philosophies but they tend to hate the Republican party for being ass-backwards on social issues. For example, many young conservatives are for gay marriage and for abortion and for legalization of marijuana and for equal rights, and for a more secular government since they tend to be constitutionalists while the majority of the Republican party is not. This leads them to either stay home, or vote Libertarian, or vote Democrat, but not Republican.
While they're the future prototype for the Republican party and they have some good ideas, the status quo of both parties would never allow any of their ideas regarding the military or welfare to ever happen.
Isn't it just the right who is blaming him? I'm on the left and I think he's done a decent job, going by his numbers up until now. Mostly everything checks out.
LAUGHTREY
Modesty becomes a woman
We're not allowed to blame Bush for bypassing congress to get us into a war and the reverberations of that for years, lets wait and see how long we're still hearing about what Obama has done years after his term is over.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
now they can finally repeal obamacare
speculawyer
Member
Mitch McConnell has already been saying that he won't do that. He is already trying to reduce expectations because he knows he can't do shit.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Honestly, I hope they go for it. I hope they get full control of the legislature (they will) and go full on bat shit crazy. Do it, please.
speculawyer
Member
They won't.
It is pretty funny actually . . . the voted to repeal Obamacare some 54+ times . . . . it has completely stopped and they no longer even talk about it.
And their base with the memory of a gnat has all but forgot about it. How come they are not screaming at them to get them to do it? Squirrel! Ebola! ISIS! Squirrel!
I'm going to have one heavy drinking night Tuesday... Scott Walker is going to win governor again, that human piece of fucking garbage in my state, Glenn Grothman will probably win his election, and the republicans will take the senate. Why the fuck are people damned stupid in this country/state? I truly don't understand. Not even a little.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Please, feel for Texas man. We have had 14 years of Rick Perry, and we are about to get a carbon copy in a wheelchair. Then you have Dan Patrick who feels that creationism must be taught in schools, that abortion should be outlawed even the case of rape/incest, both want to fight against civil unions, not to mention what they want to do to education, etc. etc.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Meanwhile my home state looks poised to have a Democratic governor, and an Independent Senator, unseating a Republican. For the first time since the fifties.
Strange place this Kansas. Then again it couldn't exactly go farther right.
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