1.2 million on STEAM in a day. imagine after a week?
Console numbers should be very good as well. Then you have Steam sales, regular sales, GOTY editions. 10+ million is very attainable.
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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
1.2 million on STEAM in a day. imagine after a week?
Console numbers should be very good as well. Then you have Steam sales, regular sales, GOTY editions. 10+ million is very attainable.
slavesnyder
Member
I don't see no problem with assuming that a bundle that charts at twentysomething should have sold a lot.
No need to attack here.
Because it was the highest selling Xbox bundle for the entire month? I thought it was pretty self explanatory. Guess not.
Then why even use it for this month knowing that sales from previous months will be added on?
I guess what I'm trying to say is I don't see how making a prediction solely on October Amazon ranking is good but using that + August/September rankings and factoring it in with how the systems did during those month (NPD) is bad. The latter is more information than the former.
I wouldn't state it if the Halo bundle wasn't the top selling Xbox SKU on Amazon during August but it was so that has to play some type of role if you are going to use Amazon anyway (a role that shouldn't be brushed off).
I don't know how XBO bundle is so low.
Microsoft bundles decision this year are really weird.
$399 for Tomb Raider or Fallout, at the end of the day who cares if they come with 1TB?, should be $349.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I didn't attack anything.
Ah, so you must know how each individual item sold!
You would still need to know how everything is relatively selling. How does the X1's #24 spot compare to whatever is in the top ten? There could be a notable divide the higher you go. Maybe there isn't and sales are fairly similar. We have no way of knowing. You could really go either way with it.
I just think it could go either way. Someone can feel the preorders were not big enough to make a difference and someone else can feel they were huge. It shouldn't be a problem either way since we have no clue of the actual numbers and basing it off of how we feel more than anything else.
Primethius
Banned
I suppose this month will make or break how accurate the Amazon charts are for pre-ordering consoles. I just never put much value in them simply because of how easy it is to pre-order stuff on Amazon and then cancel it.
3rdamention
Member
Just wish we had more insight into Gamestop.
Obliterator
Member
How would you all feel about 3 new releases doing 2+ million each in 1 month?
theprodigy
Member
Fallout 4 1999k incoming
Fallout 4 - PlayStation 4 is already the 2nd bestselling game of 2015 on Amazon, only behind The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3DS.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
Primethius
Banned
This month or November?
It's gonna be insane. I bought it on PC (so I'm part of the 1.2 million) but just those PC sales alone have driven home how insane the game's sales are going to be across the three platforms.
3rdamention
Member
Obliterator
Member
November
Welfare
Member
NPD
Nintendo Direct
Manga releases (personal for me)
Tomorrow is going to be so good!!!
But no One Piece
DriftingSpirit
Member
Indeed. Oda must take his breaks. I've heard he is not doing too well.But no One Piece
I still look forward to Bleach and Toriko though.
It's going to be interesting to say the least.
Sony with a price cut and Uncharted Collection for nearly the entire month compared to Halo with the collectors Edition out on the 20th and the main game out on the 4 days remaining in the month.
I am expecting a very narrow PS4 win as I don't see massive amount of consoles being sold. Halo will do very well but I do expect most already got the console in anticipation of the game. Also people holding off expecting another price cut like last year.
I had November and December locked for Microsoft before but looking on Amazon as a guide I am questioning that. Unless Black Friday have some crazy Xbox deals it's possible PS4 might take it.
Sony with a price cut and Uncharted Collection for nearly the entire month compared to Halo with the collectors Edition out on the 20th and the main game out on the 4 days remaining in the month.
I am expecting a very narrow PS4 win as I don't see massive amount of consoles being sold. Halo will do very well but I do expect most already got the console in anticipation of the game. Also people holding off expecting another price cut like last year.
I had November and December locked for Microsoft before but looking on Amazon as a guide I am questioning that. Unless Black Friday have some crazy Xbox deals it's possible PS4 might take it.
hodayathink
Member
IIRC, Aqua said that Amazon is usually something like 5% of the market in terms of games sold. I'd actually imagine that it's even less in terms of consoles sold, but I don't have any proof of that. Even if we take that 5%, that would mean Amazon only accounted for about 10K consoles. And, the thing you're forgetting is that August was the month that Best Buy offered the cheap TV if you purchased an Xbox One, which probably means that Best Buy had more than their normal share of Xbox purchases for the month, and part of that share could have easily come from what would normally be Amazon's share.
My predictions for November NPD
Black ops III: 5.5 million
Battlefront: 3.0 million
Fallout 4: 2.4 million
D:
I can't believe Zelda is still first. O.O
I know is Amazon only... but still.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Sigh...hopefully the npd thread delivers because this is a deep blow to my heartBut no One Piece
harrisk954
Member
Are you for real dude? Seriously? No when a system is the #1 selling system for its platform as a preorder I think it is fairly safe to say it put out big numbers relative the usual platform sales. I mean come on. I do not understand why this needs to be explained. It should be common sense.
5% is plenty large enough to be a representative sample of the market at large. Part of the reason this hasnt been the case with software is because of the unpredictability/volatility of preordering. Since preorders are rarely a big thing for hardware it was never a consideration previously but the Halo, CoD and Battlefront bundles were all announced and available for preorder months prior ot their release which complicates things immensely when using the monthly chart as a sales barometer.
While you have a good point with the best buy sale I'm not really sure how that relates to the reliability of the amazon sample size in regards to Halo bundle preorders.
Yeah, I definitely know that Amazon isn't representative of the majority of the market. My point was if you are going to use Amazon to make a prediction then you might as well use everything that's there/available in terms of ranking.
DriftingSpirit
Member
You're not quantifying anything. You're just saying "big". How much is big? How much is big at a #24 position? How big is the gap between Uncharted and Halo in their positions for monthly? We would still need to know the numbers for everything else to know whether it was enough to really change things up.
I am mostly arguing against the certainty you are speaking with. It is not a certainty whatsoever. You can feel it was enough to change things up and I can feel the opposite. There is room for both interpretations since we lack concrete numbers.
The fact that I didnt quantify it makes your little outburst all the more baffling and I went on to clarify what I meant in a later response. Big in relation to the regular sales of the same platform which is obvious when you see that it was the #1 selling system for the platform in the month in question. If it outsold all the systems that were actually selling that month that would mean it sold more therefor it was BIG.
Not to mention the post you are referencing was made A MONTH AGO and was quoted only to show that I was the first to mention the potential monkey wrench of bundle preorder figures and how they could impact/skew the results.
You are literally connecting dots that dont exist. The point of the post was never to specify how many sales there were just that the numbers were big enough that they should factor into people's thinking when it comes to predictions.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Lets just leave it be. This has become far more troublesome than it should have been.
---
Anyway, I wonder if the Uncharted Collection will chart. What sort of releases for October could knock out the Uncharted Collection?
3rdamention
Member
Well, those are all great points and probably need to be posted in every NPD thread....However, I think most of us look at Amazon monthlys for sales trends...What people appear to be most interested in on a given day, hour, or month...
And despite other stores selling more gaming items than Amazon, when it comes to consoles, Amazon has been very accurate in reflecting those trends in relation to NPD console sales...
The Mad Draklor
Member
My take on Amazon is that it works as long as the trends are similar to those from other retailers. However, let's say Gamestop had a special XBO deal for a month while Amazon offered no special deals. That would be where Amazon's reliability ends.
Halo for Sure. NBA and Assassin's Creed as well, and Madden too.
I believe Drake will chart at #5.
Welfare
Member
There's Halo, Syndicate, NBA, Madden, and possibly MGS. After that, I think UC will chart at #6.
CosmicQueso
Member
Jeez Uncharted Collection might not even be near the bottom of the chart this month. Of new October releases, Guitar Hero might sneak in? Maybe Triforce or Wooly? Outside the big new releases of AC, Halo, WWE not a lot of major chart toppers.
Welfare
Member
Will be interesting to see how well (or bad) GH and RB do.
Cow Goes Moo
Member
the champ dragon quest heroes will tops the charts accompanying the powerhouse that is tales of zestaria and the muscle disgaea 5
Same goes with GH.
If these two games weren't released in 2015 solely out of fan appreciation (who are we kidding, these are megalocorporations), I have no idea what their intent was.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
I wish man.
CosmicQueso
Member
Bombing and coming in at #10 on the chart aren't really mutually exclusive though lol.
The Mad Draklor
Member
If only, man. If only....
After that PSBlog post I really hope it's somewhere on that top 10 (it won't be).
Sell in v sell through?
hodayathink
Member
My point in bringing up the percentage is that the amount of pre-orders sold on Amazon in the proceeding months probably isn't that large of a number in total. There's only been, what, 1 or 2 months where the consoles were with 20K of each other, so the extra few thousand bundles they may have moved in August (or September) probably aren't going to make much of a difference in the overall ranking.
If folks dont get it after this....I dont know what to say....
I know the amazon hourly's are representative of ANYTHING. BUT the Battlefront game and SW PS4 bundles are start the climb into the top 20. Not to mention the COD bundle and UCC bundle is still doing very well.
It's going to be fun to see amazon update for the month and where everything lands.
It's going to be fun to see amazon update for the month and where everything lands.
DriftingSpirit
Member
So, somewhere in the middle at best and off the chart completely at the worst. Since it is just a remaster, I think it would be good if it charted period. Of course, this is without knowing any kind of relation of sales to position and what not.