• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NX launching in March to make sure there are games to go along with it

MK_768

Member
Yeah, and then nothing afterwards for the next 7 months.

They wont release 3 big, new AAA games on day zero. They don't need to. What they need is a constant stream of big-ish titles.

Zelda U or Mario day one alongside a bunch of WiiU ports/ deluxe editions . The big Mario or Zelda game one month later. Pikmin 4 the next. Some party game by Nd cube the month after, then Retro's game etc.

Just cramming everything into one day is not the answer.

I thought he was just joking with that post lol.
 

Darius

Banned
It seems Dragon Quest 11 NX could be a close to launch-phase title in Japan, even better if it actually gets to be one. A Zelda+Dragon Quest combo would be great.
 
Yeah, and then nothing afterwards for the next 7 months.

They wont release 3 big, new AAA games on day zero. They don't need to. What they need is a constant stream of big-ish titles.

Zelda U or Mario day one alongside a bunch of WiiU ports/ deluxe editions . The big Mario or Zelda game one month later. Pikmin 4 the next. Some party game by Nd cube the month after, then Retro's game etc.

Just cramming everything into one day is not the answer.

Yeah, not only would that make little business sense, it would be an unmitigated disaster.
 

Sadist

Member
What "other opportunity" do you guys think they could be talking about to unveil the NX?

I guess that was stressed by Kimishima???
latest
 

NESpowerhouse

Perhaps he's wondering why someone would shoot a man before throwing him out of a plane.
I tell you, I am not looking forward to an additional 3-4 months of NX rumor threads.
 

Sadist

Member
No one cares about SpaceWorld, they're likely going to have a Fall event like they did for the Wii U in New York.

The one where Trinen was demoing Metroid Blast and Bayonetta 2 was shown very briefly.
I was somewhat joking :p

I agree on the event thing; really curious when we'll get one.
 

foxuzamaki

Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
It's a valid reason shrouded completely in an invalid reason.

What in the F have they been working on for the past like 3 years?

You don't miss a major holiday season lightly.
Um, the 3DS and WiiU and researching for the NX which hardware wasent anywhere near final until like now?
 

The_Lump

Banned
They need to do it sooner than that, IMO. They at least need to tell us SOMETHING else before then. Like...a box. A controller. A menu. A name. These are all things they need to do before going all out with it.

I don't think they need to. But I would also like to know something sooner rather than later, sure!

The console, name, concept, price etc will be unveiled at the same event - that seems logical and is usually the case.

I think launch lineup will come separately along with pre-order details and exclusive deals with retailers etc.

Maybe more. That's the worst part of all this.

Could be more. I think ~4 months is about right though. Early September seems to feel good. (pure guesswork)

That would put it about 6 months before launch - which is actually cutting it quite fine given the precedent for console unveiling/launch periods.
 

Ansatz

Member
Two examples whoa

I'm talking about their meager consistency, terrible output rate, constant delays for big titles, misguided secrecy policies and haphazard reveal schedule. They pale in comparison to other HD developers, still. In 2016. NX has to be an amazing console with dev support to high heaven or goddammit, they should just give it up

Their studios are on a ~3 year dev cycle, and judging by the quality and gameplay volume of their games as well as taking into consideration that they're pretty small employee wise, I'm content with the way Nintendo is managing their development teams in general.

I prefer this over the western AAA model of annualized franchises and having several hundreds of people working on a game.

Alot of their problems will be solved if they only had to support one platform instead of spreading themselves thin on two. That way they can remain 3rd party independent as well (having 3rd parties would be a bonus, but the compromises and investments required to get an audience who would buy AAA multiplats on a Nintendo system are too big so it's not worth it)
 

MuchoMalo

Banned
I'm still sticking by 14nmFF being the reason extra time is needed, along with dev kits being sent to third-parties late (perhaps also due to 14nmFF). If you don't believe me, I can post some compelling evidence based on historical gaps between GPUs and consoles using nodes.
 

The_Lump

Banned
I'm still sticking by 14nmFF being the reason extra time is needed, along with dev kits being sent to third-parties late (perhaps also due to 14nmFF). If you don't believe me, I can post some compelling evidence based on historical gaps between GPUs and consoles using nodes.

Feel free to share.

The likelihood of 14nmFF still seems slim to me, but it is certainly a possibility and therefore a possible reason for delay.
 

nampad

Member
That is a good reason for a delay. If they are not able to gain momentum at launch, a new failure would be more propable.

If what Emily Rogers said is true and considering there is nothing coming out for the Wii U, they could have a good launch lineup ready.
 

Pinky

Banned
Probably an Apple-type event in the fall.

I'm hoping they go the same route Sony did with PS4. A dedicated, live event. Invite the press, publishers, developers, etc... Make the message clear. Show the console, the controller, the concept, talk about titles in development and launch expectations. Talk price. Cover all details. Hold the event in late summer/early fall.

After that, have one Direct per month until launch, with each Direct focusing on one title in development for NX. Keep our appetites wet by feeding us game info and footage. Keep them short and sweet(about 20-25 minutes). Include some developer commentary.
 

504

Neo Member
I'm not sold on the value of having a large library at launch, especially if it means missing the Christmas shopping season. My favorite console ever, the N64, launched with two games. They were both awesome and that was enough for a while.

I realize that people with much more at stake have put much more thought into this than me and that the market is more complicated now, but I'd still rather play the shit out of a few games for a few months instead of playing nothing for those months just so the console can launch with a bunch of stuff I'd never buy anyway.
 

The_Lump

Banned
Their studios are on a ~3 year dev cycle, and judging by the quality and gameplay volume of their games as well as taking into consideration that they're pretty small employee wise, I'm content with the way Nintendo is managing their development teams in general.

I prefer this over the western AAA model of annualized franchises and having several hundreds of people working on a game.

Alot of their problems will be solved if they only had to support one platform instead of spreading themselves thin on two. That way they can remain 3rd party independent as well (having 3rd parties would be a bonus, but the compromises and investments required to get an audience who would buy AAA multiplats on a Nintendo system are too big so it's not worth it)

And that seems to have been their goal for several years now. NX will finally be the fruit of this endeavour - so it stands to reason they want to get it right straight off the bat. With this in mind I fully understand them taking their time. Nintendo is basically in stasis right now. WiiU is dead, they've hit rock bottom reputation wise; may as well take all the time they need to get the pipeline for NX support perfect.

If after all this NX still suffers from the same old delays in 1st party titles, and lack of momentum: heads must roll.

I'm not sold on the value of having a large library at launch, especially if it means missing the Christmas shopping season. My favorite console ever, the N64, launched with two games. They were both awesome and that was enough for a while.

I realize that people with much more at stake have put much more thought into this than me and that the market is more complicated now, but I'd still rather play the shit out of a few games for a few months instead of playing nothing for those months just so the console can launch with a bunch of stuff I'd never buy anyway.

I believe it's the pipeline of games that is more important than the initial launch lineup. Unless there's a consistent stream of titles hitting regularly for the first year it just kills momentum. So the delay may be more to ensure there are games lined up correctly for the launch period and beyond, more than to ensure there are games for day 1.
 
D

Deleted member 752119

Unconfirmed Member
I'm not sold on the value of having a large library at launch, especially if it means missing the Christmas shopping season. My favorite console ever, the N64, launched with two games. They were both awesome and that was enough for a while.

I realize that people with much more at stake have put much more thought into this than me and that the market is more complicated now, but I'd still rather play the shit out of a few games for a few months instead of playing nothing for those months just so the console can launch with a bunch of stuff I'd never buy anyway.

The issue is that it's hard to have a killer title for everyone with only a couple of launch titles. Not everyone likes Mario or Zelda or Metroid or Pikmin or whatever else they're considering launching with.

The more variety you have in the launch library, the more people you have a killer app for and the more people who early adopt. And as others note, they really need a steady lineup of games releasing over the first year or two if their going to bounce back. If they have a barren launch and/or long droughts people will say it's the Wii U all over again.

You can get by without a big library if you have a true, revolutionary killer app like Mario 64 or Wii Sports, or if you have a ton of hype built up even despite not having a killer launch line up like with the PS4.

Nintendo doesn't have the latter at all, quite the opposite as many are very down on them after the Wii U. And I kind of doubt they'll have a new title on par with Mario 64 or Wii Sports since all the leaks have been focused on Zelda NX and Wii U Ports and Pikmin 4 so far. But only time will tell on that.
 

Not

Banned
To think that we got this footage one and a half years ago... man. I'm really curious to see how the game has progressed since we last saw it!

Based on the artwork they just showed, apparently no groudbreaking changes visually, at least since June 2014--almost two years ago. What the hell else have they been doing, I wonder?
 
I believe it's the pipeline of games that is more important than the initial launch lineup. Unless there's a consistent stream of titles hitting regularly for the first year it just kills momentum. So the delay may be more to ensure there are games lined up correctly for the launch period and beyond, more than to ensure there are games for day 1.

Exactly. I highly doubt the early 2017 release has much to do with the launch titles and more to do with the post-launch schedule. At least, I really hope that's the case. If Nintendo is struggling with launch titles, then it's the Wii U all over again.

Didn't know where post this, according ZhugeEX KOEI TECMO confirm that they are starting development on Nintendo's new console codenamed "NX".

Not sure if it's thread worthy, will probably be buried into Nintendo hate post anyway :p

A thread was made but locked, since he's a banned NeoGAF user.
 

Not

Banned
If after all this NX still suffers from the same old delays in 1st party titles, and lack of momentum: heads must roll.

If I know Nintendo, they won't. They'll just spin it and keep dying a slow death, throwing things at the wall, trying in perpetual vain to recapture Wii's success.

hopefully i don't know nintendo
 

Somnid

Member
Exactly. I highly doubt the early 2017 release has much to do with the launch titles and more to do with the post-launch schedule. At least, I really hope that's the case. If Nintendo is struggling with launch titles, then it's the Wii U all over again.

A thread was made but locked, since he's a banned NeoGAF user.

Everyone will always struggle at launch. Your first attempt in a hyper limited schedule built on a moving target platform is just a fact of life.
 
Everyone will always struggle at launch. Your first attempt in a hyper limited schedule built on a moving target platform is just a fact of life.

I've never been worried about the NX launch, because, like you said, console launches are usually a struggle, so it's not like a sub-par launch lineup is going to kill the NX's chances of success. I am, however, concerned about its first year. If releasing the platform in March ensures a steady stream of content throughout 2017, then it'll be worth the wait for sure.
 
Are they sure it'll be ready by March 2017? If the Wii U is any indications... There were delays for quite a few games and announcements happened way to early for many games too.
 

N.Grim

Member
Based on the artwork they just showed, apparently no groudbreaking changes visually, at least since June 2014--almost two years ago. What the hell else have they been doing, I wonder?

It's an artwork, it says nothing more than the design of the character.
 

MuchoMalo

Banned
Feel free to share.

The likelihood of 14nmFF still seems slim to me, but it is certainly a possibility and therefore a possible reason for delay.

Checking the gaps again, it's actually extremely close. The market has changed quite a bit though, so I decided to add a little more context to this by mentioning that 14nmFF LPE phones started shipping in Q1 (though that's not the same as 14nmFF LPP). The important thing to note here is that Wii U was the only time time that Nintendo was behind Sony or Microsoft, so if Sony is able to use 14nmFF chances are decent that Nintendo can. Also, there has not been a case of a home console using a 5-year-old node in the last 20 years, though this is a unique situation. Basically, it all comes down to what Nintendo was planning when they first started working on NX. I believe that 14nmFF was planned for an earlier release back when Nintendo started planning in 2014.

Note: Dreamcast is left out because I can’t find the info. I was just lazy when it came to Saturn. Also, I’m mostly basing the GPU parts on ATI/AMD, so it may be inaccurate; that’s why I listed quarters for those.

PlayStation – 12/1994 - 1.2 µm

1.2 µm GPUs - ??? (but ATI was using 0.6 µm in 1994)

Nintendo 64 – 6/1996 350nm

350nm GPUs – Q1 1997 (this was a weird one)

250nm GPUs – Q1 1999

PlayStation 2 – 3/2000 – 250nm

180nm GPUs – Q2 2000

150nm GPUs – Q3 2001

GameCube – 9/2001 -180nm (Note: There were rumors of this being aimed for a 2000 launch)

Xbox – 11/2001 – 180nm

90nm GPUs – Q4 2005? (Wikipedia was a fucking mess with this one)

All 7th gen consoles were 90nm

X360 – 11/2005

PS3 & Wii – 11/2006 (I think PS3 was delayed?)

40nm GPUs – Q2 2009

28nm GPUs – Q1 2012

Wii U – 11/2012 – 40nm (This one might have been limited due to the original launch having been planned for earlier and/or the cost of shrinking Wii U’s architecture down to 28nm being somewhat high)

PS4 & XBone – 11/2013 – 28nm

14nmFF LPE phones - September 2015 (Sadly, this node is not suitable for an APU or GPU in this form)

14nmFF LPP phones - March 2016

Upcoming:

14nmFF LPP and 16nmFF+ GPUs - Late Q2 2016

PS4 NEO - Q4 2016 or Q1 2017 - 14nmFF LPP?

Codename NX - Q1 2017 - ???

Additional note: 3DS was using 65nm in 2011. It might have just been due to the age of the chosen GPU, but that’s still pretty fucked-up.

Something to note is LPE was an early version of 14nmFF, so it was only useful for smaller chips, I'm fairly certain that the work on that process leads directly into LPP. Also, a handheld might be able to use LPE since that would b a small SoC. I'm not totally sure how it all comes together, but I'd say that it's definitely not impossible.

Either way, phones are a pretty big wrench here. Samsung should move all of the mobile chips they're manufacturing for Q1 2017 products to 10nm. That does theoretically free things up a bit, but the problem is that the Apple A10 (at least the ones made by Samsung) is most likely a 14nmFF LPP product. Note however that GPUs are expected to stay on 14nmFF LPP for several years, so it's possible that yields on large chips will still be pretty bad and Sony was only able to get a deal due to their success.

If Nintendo were to do it, it would most likely be either just a mobile chip or a heavily cut down GPU in terms of disabled CUs. I'm talking Polaris 11 with 14CUs (the full chip is expected to have 20) or Polaris 10 with 30 or 32CUs (full chip is 40). It's definitely a stretch, but it's not as unlikely as many think. Nintendo using an off-the-shelf 14nm ARM CPU would help a lot as well, making the chip smaller and increasing the effect of economies of scale.


The only NX rumours I wanna hear is software rumours.

I'm the opposite. I want those to be a surprise.

For anyone wondering why I'm different than I was yesterday:

ZOTKxXw.jpg
 

Mooreberg

Member
Hardware production issues would be one thing. But how would there not be enough software ready this fall? They have not been pushing a ton of games out lately. Are they not expecting even the token third party support that Wii U got a launch with Batman, AssCreed, etc?
 
Never slow enough to miss a holiday console launch though.

Yes, in fact exactly that scenario has happened.

The Nintendo 64 was announced to release in fall 1995, but was (first) delayed to April 1996. It actually arrived in June 1996, but only in Japan. The US release was further delayed to September 1996 - and still only launched with 2 games.

And that's just the one we know of because of public announcements. I still maintain that the Wii U was a year late, and probably the Gamecube as well. Their predecessors were absolutely starved for games the year (or more) prior.

And I still stand by my prediction that the NX will actually arrive in calendar Q4 2017. They're going to delay it again. They've only moved it to March now because that's as far back as they can push it without moving it out of their fiscal year.
 
That would be the Wii U thinking. The NX thinking is the following:

Launch games:

Zelda NX (if it's not delayed again)
New Super Mario Bros. NX
Glorified Tech Demo NX
Skylanders NX
Disney Infinity NX
Just Dance NX
Token EX/Activision/Ubisoft AAA ports that don't sell and doom the console to never recieve another AAA game from them NX
Shovelware NX
Relaunch of the Virtual Console NX

There.

FTFY
 
Any word if the delay is because they can't get the new hardware to perform at the desired level or are they having trouble shoehorning the NX gimmick?
 
Yes, in fact exactly that scenario has happened.

The Nintendo 64 was announced to release in fall 1995, but was (first) delayed to April 1996. It actually arrived in June 1996, but only in Japan. The US release was further delayed to September 1996 - and still only launched with 2 games.

And that's just the one we know of because of public announcements. I still maintain that the Wii U was a year late, and probably the Gamecube as well. Their predecessors were absolutely starved for games the year (or more) prior.

And I still stand by my prediction that the NX will actually arrive in calendar Q4 2017. They're going to delay it again. They've only moved it to March now because that's as far back as they can push it without moving it out of their fiscal year.

Totally agree. It does not make sense to release march 2017 and show nothing at e3. I think they just dont know what to do
 

MuchoMalo

Banned
Hardware production issues would be one thing. But how would there not be enough software ready this fall? They have not been pushing a ton of games out lately. Are they not expecting even the token third party support that Wii U got a launch with Batman, AssCreed, etc?

Or they just want, you know, a better lineup than Wii U.

Or they're not telling the whole truth.

Yes, in fact exactly that scenario has happened.

The Nintendo 64 was announced to release in fall 1995, but was (first) delayed to April 1996. It actually arrived in June 1996, but only in Japan. The US release was further delayed to September 1996 - and still only launched with 2 games.

And that's just the one we know of because of public announcements. I still maintain that the Wii U was a year late, and probably the Gamecube as well. Their predecessors were absolutely starved for games the year (or more) prior.

And I still stand by my prediction that the NX will actually arrive in calendar Q4 2017. They're going to delay it again. They've only moved it to March now because that's as far back as they can push it without moving it out of their fiscal year.

Honestly, if that happened, they'd be better off scrapping the thing because it would juist be too close to next-gen to be worth releasing. They'd gain more from just releasing the handheld and starting from scratch with the console.
 
If the delay is to ensure games are there AT LAUNCH its a good move.

Hypothetically, should the console have released this winter with games like CoD, FIFA etc I don't think it will have done very well. Those games will be available on the Xone and PS4 where the majority will purchase them. They'd may have been rushed ports and not really helped.

Yes the holiday season will have boosted the sales but one holiday season isn't the be all end all. Releasing in March moves them out of the busy winter schedule and allows them to be the focus; they can still have ports of releasing games while also allowing time for major 3rd party games such as CoD and FIFA being on the console for the holiday season 2017.

It also allows 6 months of nintendo releases, of which I hope there are many, to build momentum into the holiday season and make the console an attractive proposition for the public then.

E3 is a disappointment yes, I really do think given the floor space booked they planned on unveiling the console next month and releasing this year. However given what Iwata has said about the console and not wanting to show it too early, where they suffered with the Wii U imo, I can see why they'd also delay the reveal.

Should the PS4Neo and Xone2 be releasing this holiday season, nothing is stopping nintendo from unveiling their console in october/november time (i think it will be september) to steal the thunder, so to speak. They will still get the large media coverage holding their own conference and inviting press, as they would at e3. Being distinct from possible Neo and X1-2 reveals may also be beneficial.

As someone with many Wii U games to catch up with this summer, the drought doesn't bother me. However it is poor from nintendo to treat fans this way. They NEED to do A LOT of work to regain customer confidence. Personally, I will accept their apology with W101-2 and Bayonetta 3.

Edit - I also feel that releasing this winter with full 3rd party support may have done some harm. The titles will not sell as well on other consoles. The momentum carrying over to holiday next year may provide a bigger install base and allow for more major third party game sales on the console - building 3rd party confidence.
 
Yes, in fact exactly that scenario has happened.

The Nintendo 64 was announced to release in fall 1995, but was (first) delayed to April 1996. It actually arrived in June 1996, but only in Japan. The US release was further delayed to September 1996 - and still only launched with 2 games.

And that's just the one we know of because of public announcements. I still maintain that the Wii U was a year late, and probably the Gamecube as well. Their predecessors were absolutely starved for games the year (or more) prior.

And I still stand by my prediction that the NX will actually arrive in calendar Q4 2017. They're going to delay it again. They've only moved it to March now because that's as far back as they can push it without moving it out of their fiscal year.

So, one example twenty years ago, and one case of GC's NA launch being delayed two weeks. Since then, the number of times they've delayed a platform from an officially announced date or timeframe is, to my knowledge precisely zero.

I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, especially in light of the E3 shenanigans, but the narrative that Nintendo is particularly prone to hardware launch delays seems pretty flimsy to me. PS3 was officially announced for a spring 2006 launch, and yet no one harps on that these days.
 
Hardware production issues would be one thing. But how would there not be enough software ready this fall? They have not been pushing a ton of games out lately. Are they not expecting even the token third party support that Wii U got a launch with Batman, AssCreed, etc?

Possibilities:

1. The platform has some sort of feature/architecture that makes it harder to develop for than anticipated. (Pray this is not the case.)

2. Nintendo's teams are yet again having "growing pains" adjusting to modern development, as they did during the "HD Shift" (and may have never fully grown out of).

3. There's been a complete refactoring at some point along the line that has caused predictable project overruns on all software development.

4. They're actually doing fine on software, but basically decided they want to "punt" this holiday to avoid the VR and PS4K drop. (This presupposes that the March date will be shockingly missed and they're actually aiming for somewhere in Fall 2017.)

5. The third party support is so completely abysmal that they're basically trying to float a launch window line-up completely solo, and god only knows how you even do that or if it's even remotely possible.
 

doemaaan

Member
Whatever. Hard to get hyped right now because I have no idea what the NX is and what it's capable of. I can wait if it gives time for some launch games, but what I Really want is Wii-U backwards compatibility. There's a handful of games I wanted to play on the Wii-U, but couldn't cuz I aint got one.
 
Top Bottom