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April U.S. Primaries |OT| Vote in 20 Turns for World Leader
- Thread starter dramatis
- Start date
- Status
waiting for hillary's checks to clear.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Just saw this shared on Facebook. What would happen if Bernie ran as an independent in November.
Cute. They think Bernie would win the states where he got spanked HARD.
Ugh. I want this all to be over. I am tired of seeing the shit and people ignoring the numbers.
Its not even funny anymore.
On the plus side, all my Bernie supporting friends on Facebook have been posting his "can't let a Republican win not matter what" quote for the past few days.
Seems many people are finally hitting the acceptance stage.
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
Yeah, I loved hearing him say that. Brought back some of the respect that had gone missing.
GoldenEye 007
Member
Trump currently up 15 points in Indiana. Wall St Journal/NBC/Marist Poll.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/indiana-poll-trump-clinton-ahead/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/indiana-poll-trump-clinton-ahead/index.html
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Didn't all the polls last week show a close race? That seems like an abnormally large jump.
TheChocoboCadet
Banned
Nearly all of the polls up to this point for Indiana have been from questionable or poor polling sources. Typically you'll see large differences in those polls compared to a good pollster in open primary states, due to the difficulty of adjusting for Independents. That said, I'm sure Cruz's meltdown this past week has played a part. I'm under the impression that GOP voters who don't want Trump are voting for him at this point just to lose the election in November and move on with their lives, rather than to tear the party apart at a contested convention.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yeah Cruz has been imploding. The Kasich deal, the gaffes on the road. He's been hammered.
It would be sad if he weren't a gross human being.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
From the clips I've watched of him on today's' morning talkshows, Cruz seemed a bit exasperated too. He's trying to hold on with whatever he can.
Bonfires Down
Member
Jimmy Dore had an interesting video on how a Trump administration might not be so bad and could give rise to an ideal situation for democrats after the 2020 election. I know little about the american political system, so does that make sense?
GoldenEye 007
Member
It would be an unmitigated disaster. GOP with full control of both the Congress and Executive. And by extension the Judicial for like 20-30 years because ultra conservative justices would get appointed to the supreme court and other federal court positions.
Democrats might win the next presidential election, but major damage to their effectiveness would be all but inevitable. Probably unlike anything Obama has had to deal with.
Edit: And that guy is an idiot.
8 X 11 Printer Paper
Member
The long term damage of this would make it impossible to pass progressive legislative for the next 20-30 years, plus having Rep control both the House and Congress would be beyond disastrous. So no, that video/the guys idea is beyond idiotic and would cause suffering for every single person who isn't white, male and christian.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Seriously. There are almost 20 million people who have health care thanks to Obamacare, and the Republicans sent a full repeal of it to Obama's desk. If the GOP takes the White House, that's 20 million reasons why it's a disaster.
Of course, Dore has money and doesn't care, so...
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
If Trump takes Indiana, it's practically over. He's going to get ~40 of PA's unbound delegates, and he's polling very well in California.
Yeah, Trump has consistently had the lead, but ths is his first double digit gap. A recent poll showed Republicans are highly disatisified with the Cruz-Kasich alliance, so Trump may be benefiting from that as well.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/
Link
The Autumn Wind
Wow, that's embarrassing. And the comments... Good lord. These people are delusional.Just saw this shared on Facebook. What would happen if Bernie ran as an independent in November.
Cute. They think Bernie would win the states where he got spanked HARD.
Ugh. I want this all to be over. I am tired of seeing the shit and people ignoring the numbers.
Exactly my reaction.
The thing I love about that is that Bernie gets exactly 270. Just so obviously reaching for that Bernie win.
How in the hell did I miss this thread for an entire month? Amazing job OP. I'm hoping for a general election expansion pack.
That was... mindblowingly stupid. Any one of his college student supporters who has taken Econ 101 would immediately be able to see the flaws in that argument.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
But the supporters eat that shit up. It is a noble goal though. I just want to know how he plans to pull it off.
And now seeing people on my Facebook feed spam pics of Superdelegates and trying to publicly shame them.
exmachina64
Banned
He should have said less than $1 per day, that way we could be completely hyperbolic.
Yea screw those working and barely making $5 a day, lets make sure they make $0 a day.
Great message you're sending Bernie.
...wow.
Chezzymann
Member
(I haven't taken any economics classes so dont hit me too hard on this)
Whats economically wrong with this? Would companies just move out of the US or something?
I can understand the basic emotional sentiment, as its frustrating to have to compete with people who are willing to work for so little pay due to whatever economic situation their home country is in. And when companies outsource a bunch of jobs its hard to get a job. But again i know absolutely nothing about economics and havent taken any classes on it so im probably missing a bunch of stuff.
The impact of trade deals is an incredibly complex issue that has spun off a whole literature on estimating its impact. It's ridiculous on its face because, well, it does require a PhD to calculate that impact.
The short answer, however -- the one that does not require a PhD -- is that trade leads to countries exploring their comparative advantages, increasing output and welfare across both countries.
More sharply to his point, not allowing products to be produced elsewhere for $5 wages would lead to an incredibly sharp increase in prices of goods in the US, especially for cheap import goods that poor people rely on, effectively neutering the impact of a $15 minimum wage in the first place.
And that's all without taking into account the impact on the other country, and the results from said country adding their own protective tariffs on imported goods and services that the US sells.
He turned a complex issue into a anti-data, anti-research platitude on people that actually do have PhDs in Economics and spend their lives researching Trade. You highlighted exactly the problem: It appeals to a basic, misguided emotional sentiment instead of reason and logic.
excelsiorlef
Member
No it's horrible, and he's admitted that he knows it will be horrible for people especially Muslims, and Hispanics but he doesn't care because he, as a white man, won't be affected.
In short fuck him and that idea.
MHWilliams
Member
It's bigger than just this, but here's one facet.
The price of items is partially dependent on what it costs to produce them. A gadget produced by six people who are working at $12 an hour will cost more than the same gadget produced by six workers paid $5 an hour. The cheap stuff we enjoy in the US is dependent on someone elsewhere making it for much cheaper. Back in the day, outsourcing was harder, but with a global economy? Even small businesses can outsource manufacturing to other countries.
Basically, everyone wants US jobs, but no one really wants to pay that price at retail.
Those jobs are never coming back and there's really no way to prevent companies from outsourcing. And that's before you get to tax shenanigans.
It also doesn't begin to touch on the benefits of the countries that get these jobs. The short version of that being that it's a great weapon against the sort of extreme poverty we've all but eliminated in the US.
excelsiorlef
Member
It highlights that Bernie Sanders is flat out a shallow candidate. He's like a writer with many amazing ideas but no idea how to execute them, which btw makes for a bad writer.
And this is not even remotely one of his good ideas.
Chezzymann
Member
Ah, that makes sense. Combined with automation potentially sucking up a bunch of low level jobs in the next couple decades, a lot of Americans are gonna be in a big catch 22 situation when it comes to getting jobs. Seems like the required skill level is gonna keep getting higher and higher.
(I think, maybe. I suck at this)
In the meantime the U.S is experiencing a serious lack of skilled tradesmen with jobs that likely can't be automated any time in the near future.
Electricians, Plumbers, Masonry jobs. These fields are all severely understaffed right now in the U.S because they aren't very sexy jobs. They usually pay extremely well though, and you can get training on the job.
I think people look down on these types of blue-collar jobs but they are quite literally the backbone of society and they probably aren't going anywhere for a long time. The workforce will be fine, they'll just need to adapt.
brainchild
Banned
Last I checked, Bernie is not anti-trade; he's pro-fair trade. Granted, he is currently working on fair trade legislation that has yet to be disclosed, but he's not stupid enough to believe that the U.S. shouldn't trade with other countries.
In that case he should probably reprimand his social media people.
Quacks like a duck. If you imply that we should impose a $15 wage elsewhere to trade with other countries, you might as well be against it.
Saying one is pro-fair trade without specifying anything about it is nothing but lip service to sound more reasonable. He's never expanded beyond absolutely terrible ideas like assuming we should impose wage equality on trade partners.
Besides, the comment isn't so much about the nuances of his position: The tweet is precisely trying to say "this isn't that complicated, you don't need a PhD to understand it". It raises all kinds of red flags on whatever fair trade legislation he may have in mind. It is complicated. You do need a PhD.
Every one of his positions on economics-related issues has shown a complete lack of knowledge -- worse, a lack of willingness to learn, listen to data, and delegate to experts; Presidents need not be economists -- on the subject.
excelsiorlef
Member
I blame the Sanders camp, they're the ones talking about a clear path to victory and a contested convention and talking out of both sides of their mouths regarding super-delegates with their whole all super- delegates in states won by Sanders should have to vote for him because he won those states but all super-delegates from states won by Clinton shouldn't have to vote for her because she won those states but should instead vote for him because meaningless GE polls.
He literally has fanned the flames that has lead to this giant shit fire that is completely detached from reality.
brainchild
Banned
The bolded is actually how I feel about you and others like you who like to pretend to know the mind of Bernie Sanders in terms of what he knows and doesn't know.
Meanwhile, we have articles like this being posted on his website:
https://berniesanders.com/choice-not-tpp-no-trade/
However, I am not about to get into an argument with you about how truthful Bernie is being about his positions. If you don't believe him despite evidence to the contrary, that's your fault, not mine.
The truth of the matter is that you have exactly ZERO proof that he's anti-trade, while there is plenty of proof that he's pro-fair trade. You want to talk about listening to data but you refuse to acknowledge it.
I have no interest in arguing with hypocrites who contradict their own argumentation.
I don't pretend to know his mind -- I simply cannot impute knowledge on him that he hasn't shown. Not a single person said he is directly against any and all trade, only that the way he approaches the problem would severely cripple international trade through an ill-defined idea of fair trade. Imposing equal wages is ridiculous, infeasible, and would generate tariff wars. He has shown no knowledge of Economics and has shown complete disrespect for the field, to the point where he has tried to discredit Krueger, the writer of the book on increasing minimum wages. This is a fact.
Multiple people have made this argument in a clear, concise matter and have argued that finding out the impact of trade wage differentials on surplus is, in fact, a complicated matter. Sanders just said the exact opposite.
Your increasing belligerence and disrespect to me is absurd, and I won't engage you further. In this thread or elsewhere. I've always, always replied to you with respect despite receiving several barbs in return. I've pointed out at our last interaction that I did not appreciate the implication that my post was disingenuous, and once again you've come back with even stronger accusations based on a misunderstanding of my post. I'm done giving you the benefit of the doubt.
perfectchaos007
Member
Woah I thought Cruz was leading Indiana at last check. BTW do we have a May primaries thread OT?
I think Cruz led one polls? Stuck out like a sore thumb compared to the others though.
There is no new thread I believe.
GoldenEye 007
Member
Wow.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
You're not wrong at all. The thing is, we're at the break point for automation. A lot of factories are actually coming back, but with a fraction of the jobs, and that isn't going to change. Protectionism isn't a valid trade policy.
He was ahead in one poll, close in two, but also had a decent upswing in National polls which 538 uses to shift estimates in their polls+ model.
The last wave of polls body-slammed that notion, though. There's been a notable shift in the race over the last two weeks, and Cruz' VP stunt likely hurt more than it helped.
Reminder to those who don't frequent PoliGAF that Gravis is a horrendously bad pollster. Take this poll with a grain of salt.
So you are saying Kasich still has a chance?
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