SinCityAssassin
Member
I have no doubt that whatever deal they made with NVidia benefited however lower price they can get this system towards.
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Kimishima: 2 million Switch units shipped by FY's end
- Thread starter FZZ
- Start date
I have no doubt that whatever deal they made with NVidia benefited however lower price they can get this system towards.
Their hardware sales provide like about half of their revenue shares. Even if safely say 30% that's still pretty huge part. Selling their new hardware with 0 profit is like throwing out half of the pie. That's why when the Wii U struggled hard and the 3DS started out slow, their profits plummeted.
Minimal profit is fine as long as there's profits coming in rather than losses. But asking for taking a loss or 0 profit is never a good business strategy, especially in video games industry where the market is very volatile.
Royalties just to patch out the losses they will incur? That's not productive.
A console is a success if it's overall profitable, not just because it overwhelms the competition with sales numbers.
The difference to the double screen is that with local multiplayer and Gamepads the user lose the ability to hold the device in his hand while using one of it's core features.
I agree with you that it's a portable console but it isn't a handheld console anymore.
You can't simply go from the Shield TV/Tablet to extrapolate NS costs and margins, there is lots and lots of information missing:
When did they build the hardware?
How many are produced? (more means cheaper)
Did they get good deals on additional hardware like Screens etc?
Do they have their own production facilities or do they rent them out?
How expensive was R&D?
Where is it produced?
Is it sold at retailers and how are their margins/relationships?
It is almost impossible for us to deduce how much the NS will cost Nintendo per unit with so much information missing. Nintendo was able to build hardware amazingly efficient while still being state of the art with the GCN (sold for 99$, still made money) but they have also build amazingly convoluted and expensive hardware because of gimmicks like the 3DS and the Wii U that cost them way more than it should have (3D screens, tablet, focus on low power consumption).
Since we don't know what's in there, we can't say how much it may cost so far. Might be cheap to produce, might be way to expensive again.
The Hell? The Earning Result literally show this on Nintendo Net Sales where it shows that Dedicated Game Hardware revenue is big and last year, is even bigger vs software.
How can this be false?
SinCityAssassin
Member
It launched at $199 and lost money when they slashed the price to $99.
If I only left it on my desk and never used it as a laptop then probably. Just like you said, someone can call something all they want but it doesn't make it true (and this depends on how the user uses it in this case). You obviously only intend to view it as portable no matter what is said. This new system is hybrid, it's doing both, especially since it's replacing a home console line. If you never use it as a handheld is it still a handheld? If you mod a display and battery onto your PS4/XB do you still consider it a home console or is it no longer one even if you don't use those features you modded on?
What? How is it like saying that? What traditional handheld gaming system allowed multiple controller support, something that had only been available to home consoles? Anyway, I'll stop here as you have no intention of changing your view of the console and this isn't completely on topic.
Castef
Banned
No, I mean that 3DS which sold 3.5M in the launch month.
Well, people are comparing it to Shield because the guts are very similar.
We don't know everything about the Switch, but it doesn't seem like there's anything that would be super-expensive like in the 3DS and Wii U. The dock is likely dumb, it's probably a bog-standard tablet screen and the wireless controllers are a mature technology.
paradise_circus
Member
sounds like someone tested the cpu perfomance by some browser benchmark. why would nintendo of all people be more interested in cpu perfomance than gpu?
Well the post I replied to compares the possible Switch pricing to the nVidia Shield pricing, so I just showed how it will cost given the poster's direct comparison.
There's really so much we don't know about Switch so it's not safe to make a direct reference to a similar product to assume that this device should be sold at the same price as the similar one. Like you said, there's more than just the nVidia thing to extrapolate the price, and I agree with that.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
That's not entirely true. Long term viability is important. There's no point beibg shortsighted on profitability if your company goes bankrupt in a few years. Another Wii I type failure so mean the end id the dedicated hardware business the bread and butter for the company for several decades and a significant down sizing of the company likely resulting in many layoffs. The fact they even released this device means it's something they want to avoid. Breaking even but continued viability within the space would be the best case scenario considering the trajectory id their hardware business as a whole. Those profitability margins will disappear if the product doesn't sell so even in that context it's a bad idea. What you don't aNy to di is a loss leader mindset, but break even has plenty of benefits.
2m WW is more than do-able, even at $349 given the pent up demand just from hardcore Nintendo fans.
That's an unsustainable price point tho,IMO. PSBone will be down to $249 or $299+game in retailers, Pro may be seeing regular $50 retailer discounts or $399 bundles.
The real prooving ground will be against other tablets in the medium-long term tho.
That's an unsustainable price point tho,IMO. PSBone will be down to $249 or $299+game in retailers, Pro may be seeing regular $50 retailer discounts or $399 bundles.
The real prooving ground will be against other tablets in the medium-long term tho.
Shipped is not equal to sold.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_3DS_sales#2011
Look how it went from 3.61 million total units shipped in its first quarter to 4.32 million total units shipped in its second quarter. (It only increased by seven hundred thousand units for its LTD at that time.)
That's a bomb and why the drastic price cut happened and sent Nintendo to having a huge financial loss.
Dark Cloud
Member
I still like the idea of $250 and then have like a $30-$40 subscription service and bank on most people getting the subscription.
If it's possible of course where Nintendos overall cost is around the $250 mark.
If it's possible of course where Nintendos overall cost is around the $250 mark.
CPU bottlenecks exist in current gen games, Jaguar is a netbook/tablet CPU and is in the same class as ARM64 cores, Nintendo didn't go out of their way to make a strong CPU, Sony and Microsoft went to AMD and asked for budget CPUs with low power consumption. All the tech inside PS4 and XB1 is from 2011, it is no wonder that 5 and a half years later, a cutting edge mobile chip can compete with these designs (although noticeably below them still I imagine)
Also Nintendo didn't design this device, hardware and software solutions are coming from Nvidia, they created all the support software, OS, API, the SoC, the cooling solution... You could say Nintendo finally went 3rd party, but on their own hardware.
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
If you want to use it that way.. why not? A handheld and a home video game consoles are both video game consoles. A laptop and a desktop are both computers.
We will see in 2017. I just know that wasnt a Nintendo direct.
How can a wise guy like you be so subjective in understanding that a product is only as great as its percieved value? Thats what the NS advertisement was for.
You seem dissatisfied with the, as stated, "preliminary unveiling" of the Nintendo Switch. That is a mistake.
Did LCGeek mention anything about power drain with the Tegra running at full tilt?
2m shipped by the end of March 2017 does seem awfully conservative, particularly as people are right in saying the PS4 and Xbox One sold 1m units in 24 hours.
I'm confident that the Switch will have a strong start, mainly due to the fact it's selling point is clear even to the most uninformed consumers - you can play it at home and on the move.
Also, it will be launching with The Legend of Zelda: The Breath of the Wild and perhaps another key title (Mario Kart 8 enhanced edition?) instead of New Super Mario Bros. U and Nintendo Land, a game which was solely designed to show off the functionality and appeal of the GamePad.
Nintendo is clearly playing it safe in my opinion, but they need to be wary of creating the all too familiar situation where demand outstrips supply. Best get your pre-orders in...
I'm confident that the Switch will have a strong start, mainly due to the fact it's selling point is clear even to the most uninformed consumers - you can play it at home and on the move.
Also, it will be launching with The Legend of Zelda: The Breath of the Wild and perhaps another key title (Mario Kart 8 enhanced edition?) instead of New Super Mario Bros. U and Nintendo Land, a game which was solely designed to show off the functionality and appeal of the GamePad.
Nintendo is clearly playing it safe in my opinion, but they need to be wary of creating the all too familiar situation where demand outstrips supply. Best get your pre-orders in...
Miyamoto himself has openly said one of his biggest issues with the Wii U architecture is they went with a weak CPU that could not deliver on what they needed.
The CPU held back the Wii U in what it could do. They basically neutered all performance gains etc. the Wii U gpu had over PS3/360 by skimping on the CPU.
PS4/XBO are powered by extremely low end AMD processors meant for tablets and notebooks.
No we simply got hints at the CPU power and his last big hint was that in August a big devkit update was happening. Most have speculated that was when finalized hardware may have started going out to partners
mrmickfran
Member
Launch it with Splatoon in Japan, and you already got half a million.
{insert code here}
Member
Not a chance they sell those all in the first month. 2 million would probably last through the summer before retailers need another shipment.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
Public understanding and actual market demand are two different things.
ArtHands
Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
. I am betting that they are factoring in that people might feel burned from the Wii U and also its not as powerful as the PS4Pro/Scorpio
Also, as it's a mobile chip is that FP16 or 32?
Are you sure about that? They did go through a 150$ price point first, right?
Yep, we can only hope that's the case. 250$ would be ideal, but I can see Nintendo getting cocky thanks to the positive reaction and try 350$ again. They are kinda known for making avoidable mistakes by now almost as much as they are for innovating.
Ah, okay, didn't read the original post, but there were quite a few posts comparing the Switch with the Shield in the last few days..
Nvidia did tell us that Pascal Tegra is 60% reduction in power consumption for same performance over Maxwell Tegra, or 40% greater performance at the same power consumption.
-X1 SoC is 10watts and was passively cooled in the Nvidia Shield TV AFAIK.
-NS is actively cooled at least when docked.
-Nate told us it is Pascal, and Nvidia seemly has backed it up but it is worded loosely and I think that is because Volta comes out next year and might make Pascal look dated.
-Laura Dale told us that the dock upclocks the switch for higher performance and that on the go, you have a 3 hour max battery life.
-N3DSXL consumes ~4 watts and has a 5 hour max battery life with a 1750mAh battery.
-Vita consumes ~7 watts and has a ~4 hour max battery life with a 2150mAh battery.
Assuming the above, the device is likely drawing ~7-8 watts on the go depending on the battery size. It's performance would be ~600gflops on the go and be passively cooled.
When docked, the full tilt of the chip would be anywhere from 1.4ghz to 1.6ghz, putting it at 717gflops to 819gflops. Since not all flops are equal and 16fp could be important with this design, the comparison to XB1 shifts the numbers like this: effective 1.144tflops to 1.3tflops and without 16fp you'd be looking around 1tflop. On the go, that 600gflops would effectively be just under 1tflop when compared to XB1's architecture or just over 800gflops with no 16fp usage.
Take the above as a loose estimation about what is possible given what we know, Nintendo could be using a smaller battery, or have much faster CPUs than found in the X1, but I doubt those things. Emily in April said that the Switch was going to be closer to the XB1 than PS4 and even that was a tiny bit of a stretch. When looking at the numbers above, I think that is the picture it lays out, these are similar performance to XB1 but noticeably below it.
SinCityAssassin
Member
I'm not mentioning it. I'm only taking response to the fact that you said it was profitable at $99. By then it was being sold at a loss.
DirgeExtinction
Member
How many Wii U were sold in its first month?
Thank you for this reply, very informative. It'll be interesting to see how battery management works in this, as I can imagine docked you'll get good performance, but that on the move conservation measures might lead to a performance hit for more demanding titles.
Anyway, OT as I said I don't see any reason why it can't hit 2mn WW in its debut month.
I actually think the tablet might use gsync, so when on the go, the frames drop but it isn't too bad because of gsync, it is a small compromise imo, you would still be looking at around 50fps on the go with a solid response time.
GhostTrick
Banned
Gsync requires a chip in the screen to adapt the frequency. And it's an expensive technology. It's not happening.
It's only expensive because Nvidia licenses it, they don't have to license it to themselves.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Yeah but they are to Nintendo. So that will depend on whatever deal they actually made.
Dark Cloud
Member
I'll be at the midnight launch.
GhostTrick
Banned
It's not about license. You still need an expensive chipset integrated in the monitor. It's not something integrated into the GPU or the SoC. And Nvidia isn't likely to manufacture the screen.
Heck, the GSync DIY kit was like 200 dollars.
Ah, man, is this what Nintendo means? They'll only ship this many for launch? I guess so since shipped = sold in this case? Dang. I really don't want this to be a Wii situation of difficulty getting it at launch. :/
I think this is possibly the best time in history to try to release a hybrid, maybe the only time its been viable excluding the Sega Nomad.
PS4, Xbone were relatively weak when they were released compared to other consoles.
Mobile Technology is getting better and better every year with unprecedented speed of advancement, closing the gap between mobile tech and desktop tech.
The Vita / PSP tried to provide a console experience on the go, but the tech just wasnt there for relative parity with 360 and ps3, PS2.
I think the gap between mobile tech and current home console tech has never been as close as it is now. I think this is also a reason Sony and MS is doing a midgen refresh.
PS4, Xbone were relatively weak when they were released compared to other consoles.
Mobile Technology is getting better and better every year with unprecedented speed of advancement, closing the gap between mobile tech and desktop tech.
The Vita / PSP tried to provide a console experience on the go, but the tech just wasnt there for relative parity with 360 and ps3, PS2.
I think the gap between mobile tech and current home console tech has never been as close as it is now. I think this is also a reason Sony and MS is doing a midgen refresh.
Calm Mind
Member
Wrong.
digita1alchemy
Member
So $299, then.
