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Kimishima: 2 million Switch units shipped by FY's end
- Thread starter FZZ
- Start date
kuroneko0509
Member
huh?
FZZ, what kind of number did you expect? Since you seem to know what is 'good' and what is 'bad'
Kimi saying they won't sell it at a loss makes me think this will be a $299 device since I can't see it selling for any lower with the featureset it has
I was expecting 3-5 mil honestly since I was thinking global launch and shit
but I forgot that a.) it's a games console b.) nintendo is coming off Wii U so they probably are going to be more conservative than ever
also I think there will be shortages if you don't preorder
thats what i said bby
1 mil in a day in north america alone
Yup, they will have to fight a tough uphill battle if they launch at that price. People are going to put everything under a microscope, from specs to launch games
I'd argue taking the loss and selling at $249 would be much wiser, but I don't know much about financials to correctly forsee the long-term consequences of such a decision
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
That is going to be a very supply constrained launch: less than 700K consoles for each of the major three regions for the immediate launch period.
This makes me slightly worried about NX ease of manufacturing issues as the big cause behind the delay too. Two million consoles should not take more than three months to manufacture at this stage unless the design got finalised extremely late.
Candescence
Member
You're thinking of Pokemon Go. Different studio.
AcademicSaucer
Member
Is Nintendo trying to create artificial scarcity or they have no faith on it?
SinCityAssassin
Member
It's likely they'll manufacture MORE than 2 million units to account for anything beyond what they forecast, but considering they overestimated for the Wii U, they're likely just announcing conservative estimates in order to account for what they assume the market pace will be.
GhostTrick
Banned
I believe this is why they call it a home console. Basically, it'll be 300 dollars and they'll just claim it's a home console.
OrbitalBeard
Member
They're not going to evenly distribute the launch units like that. My guess is North America will receive the most launch consoles, then Japan, and Europe will receive scraps (only kidding about EU....sort of).
You guys also need to remember that this is launching in March. It's probably not going to do holiday numbers no matter how successful it is, so I can understand the shipment amount.
Well they said that games are why they're releasing in March, so...I dunno.
At worst, you take the Wii U's first party lineup from the first year and instead of stretching it out over 12 months you have it over 8. So by comparison it'd look bigger, even though it'd just be more dense. They also have the ability to roll into E3 with some momentum for more announcements.
I think they are playing it safe, as they do when they have something at stake. They did it with the Wii and they did it with Amiibo. And with many game releases that prove hard to find later.
2 millions initial shipment is fine really.
lol what, artificial scarcity would require less than half a million.
lol what, artificial scarcity would require less than half a million.
Candescence
Member
They're just being conservative after the Wii U's sales, I can't really blame them. Playing it safe with launch sales is something Nintendo has done before.
AcademicSaucer
Member
The hardcore of the hardcore + scalpers alone will buy around that number , I wonder if they are planning on appealing to the mass market after launch instead of pre-launch.
Honestly, while I believe 299.99 is the upper limit for the console's price, I believe they can afford to price it that way while not sounding overpriced due to how they're promoting the platform: they've stated multiple times this is a home console that you can take on the go. By stating it's a home console, you send the message it's going to be priced higher than a portable, and people shouldn't have problems in still anticipating the platform because they would see its appeal, again, as a home console you can take with you...I mean, if the price is reasonable enough (599.99 jokes incoming
). It would've been way worse if they said that Switch is a portable console you can use on your tv as well: it's not as an attractive proposition as the former, thus people have lower price expectations in order to be interested in it. In that case, 249.99 would've been the upper limit, maybe even pushing it a bit.Obviously, a good-to-great launch lineup would help in making the proposition much more attracitve, but that goes without saying.
2 million in less than a month is not that bad. It's conservative, maybe, but that's not too small. They are probably playing cautious for now, given the Wii U situation last time.
Unless I'm reading this wrong, they had 4 million 3DSes at launch.
https://gamerant.com/nintendo-3ds-expects-sell-4-million-systems-month-spice-43464/
To compare another March launch.
https://gamerant.com/nintendo-3ds-expects-sell-4-million-systems-month-spice-43464/
To compare another March launch.
I'd say anything over $249 would probably hurt it, especially in Canada where $249 is already $330. $299 USD pushes it to $399 CAD and that's what I paid for a PS4 at launch.
That is quite possible, isn't it? Given the complexity of the design and the importance of balancing everything just so, it seems like a console like this would be a bit more prone to taking a bit longer to dial in than traditional ones.
At least I hope that's the case. The alternative of potentially persisting manufacturing issues is scary.
I wouldn't be so sure about shortages, although it's always wise to preorder hardware if you want it on launch day.
The Wii U sold about 900,000 units in the first month and a half, so 2 million for launch day is a substantial jump over the previous system without being a risk of clogging shelves if things go badly. Seems like a very smart number to me, especially for a non-holiday launch.
Herb Alpert
Banned
at this time 2 million should be doable IMO. now all depends on the info they will share in january. Mainly the game library to come.
Thought the same; this is the reason why they say that it's a home console first
Honestly, while I believe 299.99 is the upper limit for the console's price, I believe they can afford to price it that way while not sounding overpriced due to how they're promoting the platform: they've stated multiple times this is a home console that you can take on the go. By stating it's a home console, you send the message it's going to be priced higher than a portable, and people shouldn't have problems in still anticipating the platform because they would see its appeal, again, as a home console you can take with you...I mean, if the price is reasonable enough (599.99 jokes incoming
$299 is a fine price for a new home console, but in the case of Nintendo they are still forced to hit everything out of the park with that price tag. They fucked their reputation with the early days of the 3DS and the Wii U, two overpriced devices that didn't deliver neither on a technical level nor had great games for a long time.
If this will be a $299 device, the games and requestes features like a modern online infrastructure, achievements etc. have all to be there; if anything is missing, the mainstream crowd might be turned off.
They've got tons of positive buzz since the reveal and a mainline Zelda title, so things are looking good for now. That January/February Direct will be tough tho
ArcaneFreeze
Member
This is no different than Capcom saying they only expect Monster Hunter to sell "2 Million copies.". They lowball their expectations that way when they surpass it it just looks better on them. Everyone knows Monster Hunter is a multi-million seller, but if Capcom forecasts that they'll sell 8 million but fail to hit that mark then it looks bad on them. Low-balling estimates is pretty normal.
WiiRevolution1
Member
....I'm totally going to miss preorders and not get this day one, aren't I? T_T
anothertech
Member
Herb Alpert
Banned
exactly.
https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemongo/comments/3zlhie/gamefreak_hiring_unity_devs_and_management_staff/
There was some other rumors around this too, but Sun and Moon use a new engine and most people who are speculating around it assume it is unity. Gamefreak has used the same engine since the original games, so the switch over is probably related to moving from fixed functions and Unity is pretty much perfect for Pokemon. (not that unreal would be any worse)
Technically, 3DS launch happened over 2 months: it was released on February 26th, 2011 in Japan. Also, the 3DS saw a massive overshipment, which is something Nintendo surely wants to avoid.
SinCityAssassin
Member
While saying Unity help is for Pokémon might be interesting, it's more than likely for their other games. They've created other games on mobile and for other consoles, despite their main bread and butter being Pokémon games.
Agreed. What makes me a bit optimistic is that between A) Emily Roger's statements about this console having a healthier lineup, B) Kimishima stating that they were not ready to release until they had a strong lineup, and C) having the majority of Nintendo's own studios focused on one platform, I see them having a very strong launch window (dominant, even) and a healthy march (hah) into E3 and the holidays.
-Mutsukki-
Member
Are you sure Sun and Moon uses a new engine? It doesn't look like it at all. And I'm pretty sure it's impossible for Gamefreak to have been using the engine from Red/Blue till now, they probably changed it back on the DS even
Don't Unity runs like shit on 3DS ?
Man, I am so scared about this!
OT: depending on when in March the system launches, this can be anywhere from low to high imo. Hope they manage to sell through this amount at the end of March at least, would be a great start for the NS!
I Stalk Alone
Member
Guaranteed late march release them. Was expecting Mar10 day but maybe last week of march is on the cards.
GhostTrick
Banned
Now it has to be Mar10, I won't take any other date.
PdotMichael
Banned
Well, Nintendo has a history of pushing high shipment numbers to please the investors.
OrbitalBeard
Member
100k Switch sales in March confirmed.
unknownstranger
Member
2 Million is fine. Xbox One did 3 million in its first 2 months in the busiest time of the year.
GhostTrick
Banned
Maybe not, but I can see it barely reaching 1~1.3 millions. It'll all comes down to their unveil.