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[James]

But you are comparing a handheld only with a portable home console that is supposed to be a home console first and a portable second.

Yes, I covered that by mentioning the form factor is tablet sized. I feel most of the relative gains power wise would come from that.

 

[z0m3le]

PS4 did 4.2 million sold (not shipped iirc) between mid November (EU was late november) and Jan 7th.

Obviously don't expect Switch to have anywhere near the success of the PS4 which had one of the best launches of all time.

Yeah with a March launch, 4m is out of the question, 3m+ is possible by the end of April though. We will see if the reveal for Nintendo Switch can live up to the teaser, something big coming out in 2017 across PS4, XB1 and NS would do the trick, another skyrim moment where people go "wait, I can play that on Nintendo?" but shows off that this actually can handle current gen games, along with Pokemon Eclipse? that would ensure that it will remain sold out IMO.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

I'll probably get shit on for this but someone has to ask... what do you all think about the resale value of Switch? On one hand the hype is NUTS but then i remember it's out in March...not Christmas season. It's gonna be very interesting to see how flippers do.

(I'm not flipping mine, just curious)

 

[z0m3le]

I'll probably get shit on for this but someone has to ask... what do you all think about the resale value of Switch? On one hand the hype is NUTS but then i remember it's out in March...not Christmas season. It's gonna be very interesting to see how flippers do.

(I'm not flipping mine, just curious)

Depends on when Pokemon is announced, but I can't see this being a big deal until you still can't find one at Christmas. The need for a deadline is mandatory for big resales, but hopefully by the holidays if the thing has stock problems, they will have adjusted as the holidays will always sell more than regular months (outside of launch month of course)

 

[FreedomFighter]

I still think its gon be 250. They hitting all the right spots, killed it with switch announcement they cant be too stupid and ruin it with a 300$ tag

I think we'll get it for $299.99. I'm ok with that price. What if they had a $399.99 model with 4k and HDR lol

Anyways, they need to open pre-orders because I don't want to miss out at launch.

 

[maxcriden]

I guess they can update the estimate in January.

Thanks. If they don't, though, are they locked in to ship only these 2M?

- Nintendo are playing it safe to avoid investor rage. Their investors seem to primarily want Nintendo to focus on mobile, being bullish with console sales #'s they can't meet won't help their argument against that.

If they do this, though, aren't they guaranteeing themselves that they won't be able to meet demand if it's greater than this? i.e. creating a self-fulfilling prophecy wherein they're locked in to ship only this many so they can't outperform the expected 2M (until the next Quarter)?

 

[Colonel Mustard]

I'm gonna guess that they launch the thing on the anniversary of the 3DS launch. March 25 - 27th is my bet.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Thanks. If they don't, though, are they locked in to ship only these 2M?

I don't think they're locked into anything, as these are just forecasts. They can overship all they want, and hopefully they do.

 

[Anth0ny]

3DS launched in March, right? Anyone have the numbers on how it sold by the end of the first fiscal year?

Hard to say if 2 million is realistic or not when we don't know a launch lineup or price. It kinda sounds like a lot for a March release, but if they can hit $199... who knows.

 

[Dark Cloud]

If you're a Nintendo fan why would you complain about $299 especially if you buy Nintendos handhelds and consoles? Even if you only buy one of them why would you still complain?

Nintendo just saved you a couple hundred dollars from having to buy an extra system and now you get a ton more Nintendo first party games on one system.

 

[Kimawolf]

249.99 is my guess. I imagine they could sell it for 299.99 though. And i imagine it will launch the last Thursday or midnight Friday. It will sell out that 2 million between preoders and launch day easy. I expect by December, especially if Pokemomcis launched? We will see 10 to 12 million Switches sold.

 

[jonno394]

If they do this, though, aren't they guaranteeing themselves that they won't be able to meet demand if it's greater than this? i.e. creating a self-fulfilling prophecy wherein they're locked in to ship only this many so they can't outperform the expected 2M (until the next Quarter)?

Just because they're penning in 2m in sales for the final quarter does not mean they are locked in to only making 2m of the devices.

 

[maxcriden]

I don't think they're locked into anything, as these are just forecasts. They can overship all they want, and hopefully they do.

Just because they're penning in 2m in sales for the final quarter does not mean they are locked in to only making 2m of the devices.

Ok, that's comforting. Thank you both. Hoping they ship plenty, then. I'll line up if I can't get a preorder, but not for more than a few hours.

3DS launched in March, right? Anyone have the numbers on how it sold by the end of the first fiscal year?

Hard to say if 2 million is realistic or not when we don't know a launch lineup or price. It kinda sounds like a lot for a March release, but if they can hit $199... who knows.

My guess of the chances it will hit each price point:

$199: 1 in 8
$229: 1 in 6
$249: 1 in 3
$299: 1 in 3
$350: 1 in 15

 

[Obscuritas]

"On Switch: Nintendo CEO says company won't make loss by selling it; but also listening to what consumers expect from us when setting price."

That's worrisome. Remember when "listening to what consumers expect from us" led to them selling the 3DS at $250? Considering all the tech in the system and how small it is, and Nintendo not wanting to sell it at a loss, I'm thinking $349 at minimum.

Naa, 250$ is their sweet spot, and they know it.

 

[Skittzo0413]

If you're a Nintendo fan why would you complain about $299 especially if you buy Nintendos handhelds and consoles? Even if you only buy one of them why would you still complain?

Nintendo just saved you a couple hundred dollars from having to buy an extra system and now you get a ton more Nintendo first party games on one system.

Because I want this thing to be a massive mainstream success, and $299 makes that harder to achieve than say, $199 or $225. The more successful it is, the more games come to it and the more money Nintendo gets from me.

 

[Omnistalgic]

Yeah with a March launch, 4m is out of the question, 3m+ is possible by the end of April though. We will see if the reveal for Nintendo Switch can live up to the teaser, something big coming out in 2017 across PS4, XB1 and NS would do the trick, another skyrim moment where people go "wait, I can play that on Nintendo?" but shows off that this actually can handle current gen games, along with Pokemon Eclipse? that would ensure that it will remain sold out IMO.

That doesn't make any sense. If something big comes out for all platforms, why would so many gamers mob to play it on NS?

I think some of you are overestimating how many people, especially in the U.S want to game on the go. This isn't Japan where everyone takes a train. People have gigantic TV's here, expensive couches, and generally like to play at home.

And the third party games that can move units like that better show up in NS this time, like GTA and Mass Effect, but I have my doubts

 

[Mpl90]

3DS launched in March, right? Anyone have the numbers on how it sold by the end of the first fiscal year?

Hard to say if 2 million is realistic or not when we don't know a launch lineup or price. It kinda sounds like a lot for a March release, but if they can hit $199... who knows.

This is not a perfect comparison, because the 3DS was available for a long while before its Western launch in Japan (February 26th, 2011), but it's also true its Western launch was right at the end of the month (March 25th/27th, 2011). However, here's the data

- Nintendo shipped 3.61 millions of 3DS in the Q4 FY2011 (January 1st - March 31st, 2011)
- However, for Q1 FY2012 (April 1st - June 30th, 2011), there were only 710,000 units shipped, and that's what inspired the decision to drastically cut down the console's price. So, yes, again: there was a massive amount of units still on shelves after the launch, something that Nintendo surely wants to avoid.

 

[El Topo]

That doesn't make any sense. If something big comes out for all platforms, why would so many gamers mob to play it on NS?

I think some of you are overestimating how many people, especially in the U.S want to game on the go. This isn't Japan where everyone takes a train. People have gigantic TV's here, expensive couches, and generally like to play at home.

And the third party games that can move units like that better show up in NS this time, like GTA and Mass Effect, but I have my doubts

Not to mention that XB1/PS4 have an advantage for all games with multiplayer, given the significantly larger install base. Higher graphical fidelity may also put another dent in 3rd party sales on NSW.
Portability is nice, but it is by no means given to be a killer feature.

 

[Shadow Broker]

It's possible.

We haven't seen their marketing push and don't know the launch line up.

What first party titles will be at launch?

What third party games will look like on launch day?

All we know are the leaks and press releases stuff. 2 million possible, anything over that Nintendo would have had to nail te marketing push and have a stella launch line up.

 

[Father_Brain]

3DS launched in March, right? Anyone have the numbers on how it sold by the end of the first fiscal year?

They shipped just over 3.6 million in Q1 2011, but keep in mind that it launched in Japan in February, and that actual sell-through was significantly lower.

For a worldwide launch in March, 2m strikes me as reasonable given Nintendo's current position in the market.

 

[Skittzo0413]

That doesn't make any sense. If something big comes out for all platforms, why would so many gamers mob to play it on NS?

I think some of you are overestimating how many people, especially in the U.S want to game on the go. This isn't Japan where everyone takes a train. People have gigantic TV's here, expensive couches, and generally like to play at home.

And the third party games that can move units like that better show up in NS this time, like GTA and Mass Effect, but I have my doubts

Isn't that what everyone who wants Nintendo to sell a standard powerful console says? That they would love to own just one console with all of Nintendo's games plus every third party game?

It's anecdotal of course but it seems to be a very large group of people who want that.

 

[KingSnake]

Thanks. If they don't, though, are they locked in to ship only these 2M?

By the end of January (when the next investors meeting is scheduled) they should know already what orders they have from retailers, so the estimate then should pretty much fit with the launch shipment plus additional March shipments.

Edit: but they aren't locked into anything. It's a forecast.

 

[maxcriden]

By the end of January (when the next investors meeting is scheduled) they should know already what orders they have from retailers, so the estimate then should pretty much fit with the launch shipment plus additional March shipments.

Edit: but they aren't locked into anything. It's a forecast.

I see. Thank you. Hopefully there will be enough to meet demand on launch day.

Isn't that what everyone who wants Nintendo to sell a standard powerful console says? That they would love to own just one console with all of Nintendo's games plus every third party game?

It's anecdotal of course but it seems to be a very large group of people who want that.

Personally, even if people do say that, I wonder how commonly true it actually is. It seems there is massive crossover between the most popular third party games, and the exclusives available on PS/X systems. Therefore, I would imagine most gamers who ordinarily buy PS/X would still not be satisfied with only the Nintendo system, even if it had every single third party exclusive.

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

I'm gonna guess that they launch the thing on the anniversary of the 3DS launch. March 25 - 27th is my bet.

Nintendo isn't launching anything on a Saturday or Sunday

 

[Dark Cloud]

Because I want this thing to be a massive mainstream success, and $299 makes that harder to achieve than say, $199 or $225. The more successful it is, the more games come to it and the more money Nintendo gets from me.

Yeah, I wasn't really asking about the mainstream success. Of course the cheaper the better.

I really hope they could do a $225 - $229, but I just can't see it happening.

 

[Anth0ny]

This is not a perfect comparison, because the 3DS was available for a long while before its Western launch in Japan (February 26th, 2011), but it's also true its Western launch was right at the end of the month (March 25th/27th, 2011). However, here's the data

- Nintendo shipped 3.61 millions of 3DS in the Q4 FY2011 (January 1st - March 31st, 2011)
- However, for Q1 FY2012 (April 1st - June 30th, 2011), there were only 710,000 units shipped, and that's what inspired the decision to drastically cut down the console's price. So, yes, again: there was a massive amount of units still on shelves after the launch, something that Nintendo surely wants to avoid.

ahh, yeah that's a but of a weird comparison. nonetheless, I suppose shipping over a million less switches during about the same timespan makes sense.

For actual sell through, 3DS sold Slightly Under 400,000 units during March 2011 in North America. I remember walking into Wal Mart the morning of launch, no one was there, I walked up to the games section, asked for a 3DS, no pre-order needed.

According to Media Create, 3DS sold about 835,933 units by April 3rd 2011.

can't find concrete european sales, but I think it's safe to say they were below the 400k number from North America.

So with a Spring launch, 3DS managed to sell about 1.2 million units at $250 with the worst launch lineup of all time. However, you have to keep in mind that this was coming off the white hot DS, and the handheld market was a lot more healthy in 2011 than it was in 2017.

Yet, they shipped 3.61 million units. 1.2 million units sold means like 66% of 3DS' at the end of fiscal year were sitting on store shelves. 3DS obviously underperformed, as they cut the price soon after.

My expert analysis:

1.2 million units sold is probably around the minimum the Switch will sell, especially if it is priced correctly. Considering how god awful the launch lineup was for 3DS AND how overpriced it was, that 1.2 million number makes up the hardest of hardcore Nintendo fans that will buy everything they put out, day one, no exceptions.

So the 2 million shipped number is probably fine. Worst case scenario, it's a solid amount shipped and not dangerously overshipped like the 3DS in 2011. Best case, they sell out and get to play the "artificial demand" game like they did with the Wii

 

[z0m3le]

That doesn't make any sense. If something big comes out for all platforms, why would so many gamers mob to play it on NS?

I think some of you are overestimating how many people, especially in the U.S want to game on the go. This isn't Japan where everyone takes a train. People have gigantic TV's here, expensive couches, and generally like to play at home.

And the third party games that can move units like that better show up in NS this time, like GTA and Mass Effect, but I have my doubts

That reason right there, it alleviates doubts and gives people who want to play those games an option to make Switch their primary/only gaming device. Without those games coming, they don't have that option, so it's a big deal if NS gets them or not, however it will likely outsell the 3DS if priced right, if it gets everything right? it could sell like the DS.

 

[OnionPowder]

Nintendo isn't launching anything on a Saturday or Sunday

Except both the Wii U and the 3DS were both launched on a Sunday and a Saturday

 

[Little Mons†er]

If Nintendo really do go £299...

 

[Hoo-doo]

You were whining about "use gorilla glass or go home" in the other thread.

You can't have it both ways, demand really high quality materials while shouting from the rooftops that Switch needs to be "dirt cheap ".

Is Gorilla glass exorbitantly expensive? You tell me.

But the quote you so deftly took out of context, was a response to someone saying the screen cover would be made out of plastic. And to that I still say no if it were my call to make. Plastic scratches like mad. Gorilla glass is used in nearly every popular portable tablet or mobile phone for years now so I wouldn't call it that much of a stretch to have the Switch use it. Even 150$ throwaway android tablets from like Medion use Gorilla glass these days.

I wasn't exactly asking for a laser-cut aluminum unibody design here.

 

[AzaK]

The whole pricing thing is such a double edged sword. Cheap means more people buy them = good for Nintendo. Cheap means less in the device = not so good for us.

I'm happy to pay a higher price for a better machine. 500GFlops for $250 is meh, $300 for 1TF (Note, numbers pulled out of my arse) is all good

 

[Justice_Bolt]

That's still low if it's a worldwide launch.

Hahaha what? It's not a new iPhone.

 

[Wandering Robot]

I thought 2m sounded rather conservative--a reasonable number, especially given the last console launch. Depending on when the NS actually launches in March, though, it could be confidence instead.
I want it at $199 just because I don't like spending money. I'm ready for whatever price, though.

 

[z0m3le]

The whole pricing thing is such a double edged sword. Cheap means more people buy them = good for Nintendo. Cheap means less in the device = not so good for us.

I'm happy to pay a higher price for a better machine. 500GFlops for $250 is meh, $300 for 1TF (Note, numbers pulled out of my arse) is all good

yep, if this thing can handle PS4 games @ 720p, $299 is the right price IMO.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Except both the Wii U and the 3DS were both launched on a Sunday and a Saturday

I'd guess they'll go with a Friday this time since they've been launching games on Fridays for a while.

I love Friday releases personally. I often work from home that day so I can go grab things (or be home for delivery) and even if I have to go in I can just pick it up on the way home or have the item delivered to me at work. Then I have the weekend to dive in, including playing late into the night Friday. Works for kids too as they can dive in as soon as they get home from school (or when parents get home from work if they have to pick it up).

If Nintendo really do go £299...

I'm really guessing they go with $250. $300 isn't terrible, but every little bit helps. $300 probably wouldn't be much of a barrier for Nintendo fans and portable lovers gungho about playing their games home and away. But it may be a deterrent for some core gamers who just shelled out for PSVR and/or PS4 Pro this fall, who are thinking about Scorpio fall 2017 etc.

They need this to sell big. And that's good for us gamers (at least those who aren't graphics whores obsessed with power--which really doesn't matter as much for Nintendo art styles) as more sells equals more and longer support and a better game library over the generation vs. a more expensive (and maybe more powerful) machine that sells less.

 

[shounenka]

Nintendo won't miss the mid-March window if they want to capitalize on (kids') Spring vaca demand in Japan in order to hit that 2 mil target.

NA release around first week of the month; JPN release no later than March 20 is my guess.

 

[Dark Cloud]

The whole pricing thing is such a double edged sword. Cheap means more people buy them = good for Nintendo. Cheap means less in the device = not so good for us.

I'm happy to pay a higher price for a better machine. 500GFlops for $250 is meh, $300 for 1TF (Note, numbers pulled out of my arse) is all good

I'd rather them go cheaper. Just do a cheaper price and get the big install base. Bring people in and grow your market from there. Unlike the Wii make sure you hold this new base for the future.

You can make money from all these people with accessories, subscriptions etc. I think it's a no-brainer to go cheap to get the huge install base.

 

[Principate]

Thanks. If they don't, though, are they locked in to ship only these 2M?



If they do this, though, aren't they guaranteeing themselves that they won't be able to meet demand if it's greater than this? i.e. creating a self-fulfilling prophecy wherein they're locked in to ship only this many so they can't outperform the expected 2M (until the next Quarter)?

That's not how these things work, you can set conservative estimate and have the infrastructure and shipments in place for greater than it in positive circumstances. The last thing you want to do is miss estimates, It means you have a poor grasp of your business and market realities thus they'll be less likely to trust the rest of your estimations as well. Exceeding them is good missing is bad.

 

[Sectorseven]

Do you think PS4 Pro with see a price drop to whatever Switch debuts at?

 

[13ruce]

Hopefully no shortages the Wii one was absurd.

 

[Air]

Nintendo won't miss the mid-March window if they want to capitalize on (kids') Spring vaca demand in Japan in order to hit that 2 mil target.

NA release around first week of the month; JPN release no later than March 20 is my guess.

Yeah this is a good point. I can see it coming out before or during spring break. Definitely.

 

[Principate]

Do you think PS4 Pro with see a price drop to whatever Switch debuts at?

No because it's an entirely different target market the off completely different things. High end console hardware vs high end portable and mediocre console hardware.

 

[digita1alchemy]

There will be more than 2 million people who want to play Breath of the Wild at launch. Of course, it's also going to be on Wii U, but I have a feeling the Switch version will be superior and is how the majority of people will want to experience the game, especially since it's undoubtedly going to be the big launch title.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Do you think PS4 Pro with see a price drop to whatever Switch debuts at?

No. Sony has to worry about Microsoft as the Scorpio releases next year and totally overshadows the PS4 Pro

 

[maxcriden]

Nintendo won't miss the mid-March window if they want to capitalize on (kids') Spring vaca demand in Japan in order to hit that 2 mil target.

NA release around first week of the month; JPN release no later than March 20 is my guess.

Excellent point about spring vacation. I hadn't thought of that at all. Thank you!

That's not how these things work, you can set conservative estimate and have the infrastructure and shipments in place for greater than it in positive circumstances. The last thing you want to do is miss estimates, It means you have a poor grasp of your business and market realities thus they'll be less likely to trust the rest of your estimations as well. Exceeding them is good missing is bad.

I see. Thank you for this clarification, I really appreciate it!

There will be more than 2 million people who want to play Breath of the Wild at launch. Of course, it's also going to be on Wii U, but I have a feeling the Switch version will be superior and is how the majority of people will want to experience the game, especially since it's undoubtedly going to be the big launch title.

Agreed. Especially since they seemingly made the Wii U version worse (removing map from GamePad functionality as previously shown in the TGA footage) to make the Switch version not potentially look in any way like a lesser version.

 

[BGBW]

Don't worry, they'll give us 1000 Nintendo points with the console to subsidise the high price.

 

[Omnistalgic]

Isn't that what everyone who wants Nintendo to sell a standard powerful console says? That they would love to own just one console with all of Nintendo's games plus every third party game?

It's anecdotal of course but it seems to be a very large group of people who want that.

yea but that's with console parity across the board. Nintendo have always done their own thing, but it wasn't until Wii that their console was so much weaker than the competition. Wii & Wiiu library was completely different than PS & Xbox. If NS has parity with X1 & PS4, it's a good starting point, but this isn't 2013 either, many people have already decided where their main console gaming will be. That's hard to convince otherwise. But generally speaking yeah, the dream is to play GTa6, Mario, Pokémon, Dragonquest, and Zelda on the same hardware, it's definitely appealing.

That reason right there, it alleviates doubts and gives people who want to play those games an option to make Switch their primary/only gaming device. Without those games coming, they don't have that option, so it's a big deal if NS gets them or not, however it will likely outsell the 3DS if priced right, if it gets everything right? it could sell like the DS.

I don't think anything can sell like the DS or PS2 again because even at $100 for a console, smartphones and tablets are here, the casual audience don't ever HAVE to get a console period, and that just wasn't the case in PS2/DS era.

But what type third party support NS gets will be very important. It will be hard mid-gen for Nintendo to make a ton of people switch ecosystems, but it could be everyone's favorite second console. I don't think it has much chance to be the main console for 50-60 million people because a lot of that is traditional gamers, invested in other ecosystems, and third parties will market on the highest userbase and more powerful hardware.

 

[Anth0ny]

There will be more than 2 million people who want to play Breath of the Wild at launch. Of course, it's also going to be on Wii U, but I have a feeling the Switch version will be superior and is how the majority of people will want to experience the game, especially since it's undoubtedly going to be the big launch title.

For what it's worth, Skyward Sword sold <700k units in North America during its launch month, which was a November. It pretty much bombed in Japan.

Now the hype for BOTW is far higher than it was for Skyward Sword, but considering its a March launch, I'm not sure about 2 million copies of it sold in a month. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think Zelda is that appealing to the general public

 

[Schnozberry]

-X1 SoC is 10watts and was passively cooled in the Nvidia Shield TV AFAIK.

It's actively cooked in the Shield TV, but the fan is silent. The Switch devkits apparently have a noisy cooler, which indicates some overclocking to me.

 

[casey_contra]

For what it's worth, Skyward Sword sold <700k units in North America during its launch month, which was a November. It pretty much bombed in Japan.

Now the hype for BOTW is far higher than it was for Skyward Sword, but considering its a March launch, I'm not sure about 2 million copies of it sold in a month. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think Zelda is that appealing to the general public

I think the fact that it's on two platforms and is also a launch title for Switch will help immensely. I'm sure the attach rate will be pretty high.