Support NeoGAF

[Xadjim]

Not while Europe exists.

So they should get rid of europe hmm... just kidding, I live in europe.... please don't kill us

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Scorpio or overall XB1 sales? I can't see it beating overall XB1 sales at all considering Nintendo's current position when it comes to third party support and online multiplayer gaming.

These things didn't seem to hinder the 3DS.

 

[Slangblade]

If PS5 doesnt have the same compatibility as PS4/Pro, they will be in trouble. I dont think that it won't but stating that if they dont it matter is really shortsighted. When we usually get next gen consoles we barely have anything to play, maybe 1 or 2 games... and not anything worthwhile for months or a year from buying the console. If your console could get some "free" upgrades (ones without patches) to existing games that were designed for the "current-gen" console that you already own vs a console that starts over... it's pretty obvious which console people would choose more likely.

I don't think anyone is saying PS5 won't have bc. What I'm trying to figure out is does bc give Microsoft an advantage and does it really matter at the end of the day when it come to console sells. I don't think we it does. We have no data or evidence thats supports that either way. This is why I think people in this forum make a bigger deal of bc then what it actually is.

 

[SneakersSO]

Scorpio or overall XB1 sales? I can't see it beating overall XB1 sales at all considering Nintendo's current position when it comes to third party support and online multiplayer gaming.

Nah, that is way too early to call. MS hasn't maintained a 10 million sold-through per year sales rate with X1. I think it's too early to tell, but I think the current reception for Switch is super positive. If Switch is a breakout success WW, I could see them overtaking X1 by the end of 2019.

Microsoft should win PS4 pro vs Xbox Scorpio vs Nintendo switch.

I mean, I don't think either Scorpio or Pro are gonna be huge successes, but even in this scenario, Nintendo easily wins a competition in this 3 man arena. MS doesn't have the WW appeal to compete with a Nintendo that has a consolidated development pipeline into one platform and a positive commercial reception, which the Switch currently does.

Scorpio is really great for fanboy wars in online forums who love to discuss specs, but there's no reason to believe it will either turn things around for MS either in NA or WW, nor is there any reason why people will pick it up over the cheaper consoles that play all the same games it can. Scorpio won't have exclusives outside of VR, so there is almost nothing that will push its hardware sales outside of the hardcore Xbox user.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

The people here saying BC is gonna be a make or break deal probably thought the same thing about UHD winning November for MS this year.

And wow at people already saying the Switch is gonna outsell the XB1. Lets at least wait until we have a price first.

 

[jroc74]

Well, they won it by sprinting out of the gates. But in hindsight, because they ended so early, it won't look like a landslide, with a difference on the numbers 2 and 3 of less than 15 million. Compared to the 125 million PS2 gap, the 70 million PS1 gap or the 70 million DS gap.

.

 

[SneakersSO]

The people here saying BC is gonna be a make or break deal probably thought the same thing about UHD winning November for MS this year.

And wow at people already saying the Switch is gonna outsell the XB1. Lets at least wait until we have a price first.

Nintendo doesn't have an in-between in terms of success. It's either breakout success or just middling/WiiU. They are hot right now though, and when Nintendo is hot, their sales make everyone else's look silly.

 

[Purest 78]

If PS5 doesnt have the same compatibility as PS4/Pro, they will be in trouble. I dont think that it won't but stating that if they dont it matter is really shortsighted. When we usually get next gen consoles we barely have anything to play, maybe 1 or 2 games... and not anything worthwhile for months or a year from buying the console. If your console could get some "free" upgrades (ones without patches) to existing games that were designed for the "current-gen" console that you already own vs a console that starts over... it's pretty obvious which console people would choose more likely.

So You're Saying hypothetically if PS5 Isn't BC Sony are in Trouble. So may I ask if someone owns a Ps4 even if PS5 isn't BC, Why would the next Xbox be a better option. In both those scenarios you still couldn't play your old games.

 

[gtj1092]

Nintendo doesn't have an in-between in terms of success. It's either breakout success or just middling/WiiU. They are hot right now though, and when Nintendo is hot, their sales make everyone else's look silly.

What would you call 3DS sales? Also what's your criteria for them being on fire? Their mobile games?

 

[Zedox]

So You're Saying hypothetically if PS5 Isn't BC Sony are in Trouble. So may I ask if someone owns a Ps4 even if PS5 isn't BC, Why would the next Xbox be a better option. In both those scenarios you still couldn't play your old games.

The catalog of games you can get is bigger. But what I'm saying is that people will consider going to an ecosystem that they know they won't have to worry about upgrading and losing games and have more to play whenever when they do.

 

[Fdkn]

The difference in console sales is 2:1. The difference in MAUs is a little over 1.25:1. It's really simple.

Actually those MAUs are counting PS3 and Xbox 360 too. The difference there is not 2:1, is probably closer to 1.25:1

 

[Salty Hippo]

Actually those MAUs are counting PS3 and Xbox 360 too. The difference there is not 2:1, is probably closer to 1.25:1

That's what I said.

 

[Fdkn]

That's what I said.

No, you didn't. The difference in consoles sold is 1.25:1.

 

[Vinci]

I think their biggest weakness is a relative lack of globally relevant first-party franchises. So no, I don't think they'll ever truly win a generation so long as Sony is still getting the same third-party games and has its internal developers firing on all cylinders.

 

[Salty Hippo]

No, you didn't. The difference in consoles sold is 1.25:1.

Not between PS4 and XB1. What I said is that it's much better for MS to push the MAU narrative (precisely because it includes last-gen consoles) than the current gen units sold comparison (2:1).

 

[Hello? This is Hailun!]

Does Windows count ?

 

[Bgamer90]

These things didn't seem to hinder the 3DS.

Nah, that is way too early to call. MS hasn't maintained a 10 million sold-through per year sales rate with X1. I think it's too early to tell, but I think the current reception for Switch is super positive. If Switch is a breakout success WW, I could see them overtaking X1 by the end of 2019.

3DS definitely had struggles. Wasn't a huge success of out the gate by any means. I definitely think the Switch has positive reception and definitely feel that it will sell more than the Wii U but I'm currently not expecting it to sell more than the 3DS.

I mean, I don't think either Scorpio or Pro are gonna be huge successes, but even in this scenario, Nintendo easily wins a competition in this 3 man arena. MS doesn't have the WW appeal to compete with a Nintendo that has a consolidated development pipeline into one platform and a positive commercial reception, which the Switch currently does.

I don't understand this since again, Nintendo doesn't have much AAA third party support if any at all and sales clearly show that these games are helping current gen console sales the most. I think the Switch will do well but people are still mainly going to buy it just for Nintendo games and if the Switch is more expensive than the original PS4 and Xbox One S in 2017+ then I don't see how Nintendo will win easily. If they possibly win then it will be a really tight battle in my opinion.

Scorpio is really great for fanboy wars in online forums who love to discuss specs, but there's no reason to believe it will either turn things around for MS either in NA or WW, nor is there any reason why people will pick it up over the cheaper consoles that play all the same games it can. Scorpio won't have exclusives outside of VR, so there is almost nothing that will push its hardware sales outside of the hardcore Xbox user.

Effective marketing helps. A large portion of the top selling games on PS4 and Xbox One during the first years of both consoles were games that were also available on last gen consoles. People still bought the systems though due to visual improvement and marketing hype. Those two qualities can still be there regardless of whether or not a console is truly "next gen" as long as the improvement/difference is noticeable. I agree that there's no reason to believe MS will make a worldwide comeback but a comeback in NA is definitely possible depending on what happens these next few years. The sales gap in NA is the closest it has been since the 16 bit gen -- a gen in which both Sega and Nintendo were very relevant in North America.

_______________

The people here saying BC is gonna be a make or break deal probably thought the same thing about UHD winning November for MS this year.

I don't understand the comparison. Gamers buy consoles to mainly play games and knowing that their games will be compatible with a product that's part of an industry that's greatly/obviously moving towards digital ecosystems, accessibility, and iterative models at a pretty rapid pace will definitely mean a lot to a good number of them.

 

[SneakersSO]

Not between PS4 and XB1. What I said is that it's much better for MS to push the MAU narrative (precisely because it includes last-gen consoles) than the current gen units sold comparison (2:1).

MAU also includes PC users as Xbox users if they are playing through the W10 Xbox platform.

 

[DocSeuss]

MAU also includes PC users as Xbox users if they are playing through the W10 Xbox platform.

The number of exclusively W10 Xbox-only, non-Xbox-playing users is extremely low to the point of being a rounding error. People using the ecosystems are using both.

In North America, yes but worldwide, no.

That's all you need. If you won in North America, you have literally won worldwide.

 

[Purest 78]

The catalog of games you can get is bigger. But what I'm saying is that people will consider going to an ecosystem that they know they won't have to worry about upgrading and losing games and have more to play whenever when they do.

Once again if all your games are on ps4 if ps5 is BC or Not. It still wouldn't give another console a Advantage. Because it's the same end result You still can't play your old games.

 

[SneakersSO]

3DS definitely had struggles. Wasn't a huge success of out the gate by any means. I definitely think the Switch has positive reception and definitely feel that it will sell more than the Wii U but I'm currently not expecting it to sell more than the 3DS.



I don't understand this since again, Nintendo doesn't have much AAA third party support if any at all and sales clearly show that these games are helping current gen console sales the most. I think the Switch will do well but people are still mainly going to buy it just for Nintendo games and if the Switch is more expensive than the original PS4 and Xbox One S in 2017+ then I don't see how Nintendo will win easily. If they possibly win then it will be a really tight battle in my opinion.



Effective marketing helps. A large portion of the top selling games on PS4 and Xbox One during the first years of both consoles were games that were also available on last gen consoles. People still bought the systems though due to visual improvement and marketing hype. Those two qualities can still be there regardless of whether or not a console is truly "next gen" as long as the improvement/difference is noticeable. I agree that there's no reason to believe MS will make a worldwide comeback but a comeback in NA is definitely possible depending on what happens these next few years. The sales gap in NA is the closest it has been since the 16 bit gen -- a gen in which both Sega and Nintendo were very relevant in North America.

I don't think a comeback in NA is possible. Too many factors against it. I also don't think the differences on display will be much outside of native 4K and exclusive VR titles from the Scorpio/Oculus partnership I believe gets announced at E3. The differences will be too close to base Ps4/X1 for mass market users to care. Heck, I don't think Scorpio sales will beat X1S sales in the same November both are available, and that's not a slight against Scorpio; I just think the current reception to mid-gen upgrades reads "doesn't offer enough to justify purchase".

Also, there's a difference in early cross-fertilization versus on going cross-gen that these mid-gen upgrades present. Quite a few differences, and it's those differences that will ultimately hold back mid-gen upgrades.

 

[wapplew]

Scorpio or overall XB1 sales? I can't see it beating overall XB1 sales at all considering Nintendo's current position when it comes to third party support and online multiplayer gaming.

Next genration of Nintendo handheld/hybrid, even it sold 50% less then 3DS, still out sold Xbox one.

 

[Ogodei]

Soon enough the competition will start becoming a little apples-and-oranges, so perhaps they never will by default. Doesn't mean that they've peaked or anything, though.

 

[Bgamer90]

Once again if all your games are on ps4 if ps5 is BC or Not. It still wouldn't give another console a Advantage. Because it's the same end result You still can't play your old games.

Not true. Some would feel more confident in moving over knowing that they won't have to worry about their purchases not being compatible.

________________

Next genration of Nintendo handheld/hybrid, even it sold 50% less then 3DS, still out sold Xbox one.

3DS has been out almost twice as long as the Xbox One so I would hope so. Switch will be starting things from square one.

 

[GTR R35_Supra RZ]

Scorpio is really great for fanboy wars in online forums who love to discuss specs, but there's no reason to believe it will either turn things around for MS either in NA or WW, nor is there any reason why people will pick it up over the cheaper consoles that play all the same games it can. Scorpio won't have exclusives outside of VR, so there is almost nothing that will push its hardware sales outside of the hardcore Xbox user.

I think you nailed it and agree %110 and it might be the case sales wise when it's all said and done..but the true main fact remains that everything will look/play miles better on Scorpio.

All the multi-plats, legit 4k gaming, 4k blu i mean the list goes on n on..going to be an insanely fast powerful mashine. So in all honesty $50-100 mil Pros sold worldwide its no biggie to me, they can have the Pro..lol. ( own 2 myself until the inevitable, then keeping solely for exclusives )

 

[Primethius]

BC being a defining feature for next gen sounds like similar talk to when XB1 was getting BC and the feature was being talked about as making a difference sales wise here on GAF.

It came out and did jack all.

 

[LiquidSolid]

I don't think they particularly cared about Europe. They focused on the US and probably got burned harder than they had expected.

You really don't think they've cared about or put any effort in to Europe at any point since the oXbox launched? I disagree, I think they put a hell of a lot of effort into the 360 launch.

Actually those MAUs are counting PS3 and Xbox 360 too. The difference there is not 2:1, is probably closer to 1.25:1

It's PS3/PS4/Vita vs 360/XB1/W10.

Any Windows 10 game with Xbox Live functionality (which includes stuff like Solitaire) counts towards it, so it's actually a bit of a surprise how low it is.

 

[Toni]

That's all you need. If you won in North America, you have literally won worldwide.

Um, what?

Are we suddenly back to America = the world again?

 

[SneakersSO]

I think you nailed it and agree %110 and it might be the case sales wise when it's all said and done..but the true main fact remains that everything will look/play miles better on Scorpio.

All the multi-plats, legit 4k gaming, 4k blu i mean the list goes on n on..going to be an insanely fast powerful mashine. So in all honesty $50-100 mil Pros sold worldwide its no biggie to me, they can have the Pro..lol. ( own 2 myself until the inevitable, then keeping solely for exclusives )

I mean, this stuff is all subjective. Miles better? Highly doubtful, especially if it's running a Jaguar-CPU, which it undoubtedly will. Multiplats have run better across the board on PS4 for 3 years, and it hasn't prevented X1 users from picking up multiplats en masse, and in rare cases even outselling the PS4 version.

If power or feature set was the end all be all, consoles would be dead and PC/Steam would be where all those users would have gone to. Once the price barrier to enter a console platform is under $299, the market, particularly NA and UK, tend to focus more and price and bundles and less on power.

 

[Bgamer90]

I don't think a comeback in NA is possible. Too many factors against it.

North America has been back and forth between brands for a while. Anything is definitely possible... especially considering the gap isn't no where near as big as NA winners in previous generations.

Also, there's a difference in early cross-fertilization versus on going cross-gen that these mid-gen upgrades present. Quite a few differences, and it's those differences that will ultimately hold back mid-gen upgrades.

I agree there's a difference but I don't see how it will greatly hold things back. As I said before, people 3-4 years ago bought $400 consoles alongside new games for $60 a pop to show that console off. Mid-gen upgrades could show similar visual improvements but due to compatibility, people wouldn't have to pay $60 for every game they want to show off that console with therefore making it financially easier to upgrade in some cases.

I wish there were stats that showed how many people bought COD Ghosts, GTA V, NBA 2K14, and Madden 25 (separately) on both last gen and current gen.

 

[george_us]

Not really. Xbox has been always US and UK focused console and MS hasn't demonstrated the vision necessary create a console with global appeal like Nintendo and Sony have done.

 

[potatohead]

So they should get rid of europe hmm... just kidding, I live in europe.... please don't kill us

Hmmm..... can't promise that anymore.

 

[Bgamer90]

BC being a defining feature for next gen sounds like similar talk to when XB1 was getting BC and the feature was being talked about as making a difference sales wise here on GAF.

It came out and did jack all.

Did "jack all" for making Xbox One sales go above PS4 but people did buy an Xbox One thanks to BC.

Again, these are different situations during different points of the industry. Not sure how big gamers can think compatibility isn't a big deal when the industry is moving towards digital features, accessibility between models, and model releases more frequently -- something that we didn't see 2-3 years ago and especially not last gen.

 

[atpbx]

Not world wide no.

You can see evidence of this just on pure floor space here in the U.K. (In the region I live anyway) PlayStation software and hardware always has more shelf space than Xbox gear.

I was in Sainsbury's yesterday getting some Christmas shopping in, I went down the hardware aisles for some last minute stocking fillers and had a whole rack of PS4 games to choose from, but only half a rack of X1 stuff next to it.

(PS if you haven't been in to Sainsbury's Human revolution is £16 at the moment, infinite warfare is £27.99 and FFXV £34.99)

 

[Sydle]

BC being a defining feature for next gen sounds like similar talk to when XB1 was getting BC and the feature was being talked about as making a difference sales wise here on GAF.

It came out and did jack all.

It's mentioned by GAF highly often as one of the reasons they picked up a Xbox One, to play some old favorite(s). That and typically citing something else that got them over the fence like an exclusive.

No single feature sells a console. It's always about a combination of factors, and being able to keep access to your entire catalog is certainly a positive people get behind when weighing their options.

 

[SneakersSO]

North America has been back and forth between brands for a while. Anything is definitely possible... especially considering the gap isn't no where near as big as previous NA winners in previous generations.



I agree there's a difference but I don't see how it will greatly hold things back. As I said before, people 3-4 years ago bought $400 consoles alongside new games for $60 a pop to show that console off. Mid-gen upgrades could show similar visual improvements but due to compatibility, people wouldn't have to pay $60 for every game they want to show off that console with therefore making it financially easier to upgrade.

I wish there were stats that showed how many people bought COD Ghosts, GTA V, NBA 2K14, and Madden 25 on both last gen and current gen.

Those figures wouldn't prove your point though. Yes, cross gen sells well early on, but the reality of cross gen holding back games as devs compete to put the flashier graphical showcase in front of users builds up into year 2 and 3. Devs do focus on the higher-spec systems because the console sales of lower spec drop off along with their software sales. There is no market indicater that shows a similar situation will occur with mid-gen upgrades. In fact, Pro couldn't outsell PS4 in its launch month, and I doubt that is going to change. Mid-gen upgrades are set to have no exclusive library and play the exact same disc for cross gen as the lower spec machine, so devs won't even have to produce anything extra for the higher-spec render outside of IQ changes.

 

[Aceofspades]

Lol Never, Brand is just too weak for that.

 

[Primethius]

Did "jack all" for making Xbox One sales go above PS4 but people did buy an Xbox One thanks to BC.

Again, these are different situations during different points of the industry. Not sure how big gamers can think compatibility isn't a big deal when the industry is moving towards digital features, accessibility between models, and model releases more frequently -- something that we didn't see 2-3 years ago and especially not last gen.

The XB1 public got BC last year right? Yet the XB1 was pretty much largely down YoY this year until the S hit, sometimes significantly.

If gamers bought it for BC, that effect wasn't really shown in any meaningful way in actual sales. So the talk of gamers buying it for BC is largely speculative and annecdotal.

As for how big gamers can't think it's a big deal. That's a personal subjective assessment I feel. I'm a big gamer and BC is a huge non feature for me.

 

[scoobs]

They need a better strategy to capture Europe or they'll never "win." I'm not sure they care about winning though, thats more of an internet discussion thing. All they want is to grow the brand, which they definitely need to do more of

 

[Perineum]

They have everything they need from a hardware standpoint and online infrastructure standpoint.

They lack games. Third party I opt to play on my Pro, tons of their exclusives I can get on PC....so I rarely play anything on it.

The most XB1 time I've spent is with Gears, and the same goes for 360. If they can just invest a ton of dough in a variety of new IPs, across genres, then I have a reason to play on it.

 

[Fdkn]

It's PS3/PS4/Vita vs 360/XB1/W10.

Any Windows 10 game with Xbox Live functionality (which includes stuff like Solitaire) counts towards it, so it's actually a bit of a surprise how low it is.

You're right, I only posted because of the 2:1 console sales comments but yeah, MAUs are a somewhat useful metric for the company but also a very unespecific thing to compare to other companies

 

[Zedox]

Once again if all your games are on ps4 if ps5 is BC or Not. It still wouldn't give another console a Advantage. Because it's the same end result You still can't play your old games.

It sets a precedent, knowing that my library will always move with me without worry of restarting with a new system and few games. It is an advantage. For some it won't matter, for others it will.

 

[pixellated_man]

The number of exclusively W10 Xbox-only, non-Xbox-playing users is extremely low to the point of being a rounding error. People using the ecosystems are using both.



That's all you need. If you won in North America, you have literally won worldwide.

That's the kind of mentality that got MS in trouble at the start of this gen, lol.
The only way MS is going to make up for the rest of the world (by only taking the lead in the U.S) is if they outsell Sony by at least 2:1 in that territory that you hold so sacred.

Don't let your fanboyism get in the way of common sense, breh.

 

[Miles X]

Worldwide, not a chance. Their brand isn't strong.

First post, bullshit.

Wii - 102m~~

PS3/360 - 85 to 95m each. No way to tell which number either are at, there haven't been any solid numbers since they were both announced to hit 80m (of which xbox 360 was first).

Point is, Microsoft came very close.

So yeah, it can be done worldwide if the ball is in their court.

 

[pixellated_man]

North America has been back and forth between brands for a while. Anything is definitely possible... especially considering the gap isn't no where near as big as NA winners in previous generations.



I agree there's a difference but I don't see how it will greatly hold things back. As I said before, people 3-4 years ago bought $400 consoles alongside new games for $60 a pop to show that console off. Mid-gen upgrades could show similar visual improvements but due to compatibility, people wouldn't have to pay $60 for every game they want to show off that console with therefore making it financially easier to upgrade in some cases.

I wish there were stats that showed how many people bought COD Ghosts, GTA V, NBA 2K14, and Madden 25 (separately) on both last gen and current gen.

The bolded is wishful thinking.
Do you consider the Ps4 to be a generation ahead of Xbox One in graphics?
Because the difference in power between Ps4 and Xbox One is similar to what we'll get with Scorpio and Pro. In other words nowhere near the generational shift you seem to be expecting.

 

[Primethius]

First post, bullshit.

Wii - 102m~~

PS3/360 - 85 to 95m each. No way to tell which number either are at, there haven't been any solid numbers since they were both announced to hit 80m (of which xbox 360 was first).

Point is, Microsoft came very close.

So yeah, it can be done worldwide if the ball is in their court.

If you're expecting MS (or really anyone, including Sony) to sell around 45 million consoles in NA again, I have some bad news for you.

 

[daegan]

No, because they're not going to make another dedicated console beyond the Xbox One family. (One/S/Scorpio/maybe something more powerful but still XBO)

 

[Suburban Thug]

Nah, that is way too early to call. MS hasn't maintained a 10 million sold-through per year sales rate with X1. I think it's too early to tell, but I think the current reception for Switch is super positive. If Switch is a breakout success WW, I could see them overtaking X1 by the end of 2019.




I mean, I don't think either Scorpio or Pro are gonna be huge successes, but even in this scenario, Nintendo easily wins a competition in this 3 man arena. MS doesn't have the WW appeal to compete with a Nintendo that has a consolidated development pipeline into one platform and a positive commercial reception, which the Switch currently does.

Scorpio is really great for fanboy wars in online forums who love to discuss specs, but there's no reason to believe it will either turn things around for MS either in NA or WW, nor is there any reason why people will pick it up over the cheaper consoles that play all the same games it can. Scorpio won't have exclusives outside of VR, so there is almost nothing that will push its hardware sales outside of the hardcore Xbox user.

Nintendo easily wins? Did you forget the Wii U disaster?

 

[BHR-3]

dont think so very hard everything has to line up again

they almost had it last gen b/c they were first with the online social gaming, achievements slick interface ect aswell as the first HD console the jump from 6th gen to 7th was huge at the time especially if you had a HD tv

another thing that was booming then everyone was upgrading there CRT tvs to HD thin LCDs they wanted a gaming console to go with it are all reasons why MS had the one up against sony for a very long time that gen

now not so much having those things dont matter anymore there not new experiences i also believe that gaming isnt as big or mainstream as it was early last gen with the wii bringing a new audience the casuals, that would eventually open there eyes to one of the HD twins

soccer moms, adult females and more adult males became gamers at that time i dont believe that alot of these gamers stuck with gaming after the end of last gen we were in the mist of terror attacks aswell then alot of people wanted an outlet a perfect time for COD everyone could relate to those early MW games its why the current gen havent been selling so well we cant relate to space wars

there exclusive games have been nothing to brag about for some time now aswell

 

[alt27]

The number of exclusively W10 Xbox-only, non-Xbox-playing users is extremely low to the point of being a rounding error. People using the ecosystems are using both.



That's all you need. If you won in North America, you have literally won worldwide.

LMAO