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Phil Spencer: "I know we have to take risks [after Scalebound cancellation],"

LordRaptor

Member
Wild prediction:

They are going to try and nab Cyberpunk 2077 as an Xbox exclusive (and PC, like Rise of the Tomb Raider).

Cyberpunk 2077 isn't launching on any PC storefront before launching on GOG, and it seems extremely unlikely MS want to invite sales comparisons with any store and the W10 appstore.
 

greenegt

Member
It's their biggest problem and was certainly amplified by Scalebound's cancelation.

That, or expand their existing/very talented studios (343, Coalition, Turn 10) and let them work on new IPs in edition to the platform staples. Shackling them to their existing franchise stifles creativity and makes the very risk taking Spencer is describing here harder to strive for.

A thousand times this. There is a lot of talent at 343 and Coalition. MS should let them branch out and work on new IP.
 
Sea of Thieves, Halo Wars 2, and Crackdown all have potential to be good exclusives for 2017. It may not be exactly what some people were wanting but I grow tired of listening to people continually throwing around the xbox is only Gears, Halo, and Forza. And I feel like counting Ori and the Blind Forest and Recore games as non exclusive simply because those games are also on PC is a dudebro excuse. Quantum Break ended up being okay. Sunset Overdrive was fantastic. If you look at Nintendo, they didn't even release a Zelda game for the Wii U, nor a Metroid Game this gen, which are two of their more beloved franchises. Whatthehellisthat.gif?

Its silly to say the xbox doesn't have appeal when it actually does. The reality is that different people have different tastes. MS has had to overcome some massive obstacles after having coming out of the gates flat on their face with the xbox one. The position they're in now is pretty remarkable if you consider where most people thought they'd be. All that is to say is that I don't think it's as doom and gloom as some people make their situation out to be.

This is probably one of the most impartial sentiments in this thread, which means that it's unlikely to gain any traction.
 

DOWN

Banned
He's been saying this for years. We have yet to see Microsoft grow their first party Studios portfolio (they've actually shrunk). And their third party relationships are supposedly troubled. I don't think Spencer PR is doing much of substance.
 

jelly

Member
A thousand times this. There is a lot of talent at 343 and Coalition. MS should let them branch out and work on new IP.

I think people don't realise the devs go there to work on Halo etc.

Microsoft definitely need an escape route for devs to trailblaze new IP instead of calling it quits at 343 etc. once they had their fill. Incubation at Microsoft Studios is needed.
 

spekkeh

Banned
I went ahead and took a look at their most recent annual reports revenue is indication of investment, then Sony and Microsoft are in the same ballpark Sony reported a little over 13 billion revenue with about 800 million profit for their gaming division April 2015 to March 2016. Microsoft didn't report hard numbers specifically for Xbox division but reported 132 million revenue increase as a 1% increase for the division making overall revenue in the 13 billion ballpark profit was not listed though this for July 2015 to June 2016. For Nintendo revenue numbers were 4 billion in the same period as Sony, if I read the report right they posted a loss of 32 million for the period.

That would be insane, if Xbox could pull that off with 1/3rd the install base. You sure it's not the complete Devices division?
 
He's been saying this for years. We have yet to see Microsoft grow their first party Studios portfolio (they've actually shrunk). And their third party relationships are supposedly troubled. I don't think Spencer PR is doing much of substance.

This community tends to over analyze on matters. Of the games that were cancelled late in development, no one here knew them extensively from either the development perspective, financial perspective, or even the success/failures from focus groups. "Risk" could be defined as making the right decision to cancel a game that late in development because everything pointe to it being disappointing or a even disaster.

I never thought this game looked worth a shit.
 

BigPapi

Member
That would be insane, if Xbox could pull that off with 1/3rd the install base. You sure it's not the complete Devices division?

Here is their entry:

Gaming revenue increased $132 million or 1%, primarily due to higher revenue from Xbox Live and video games, offset in part by lower Xbox hardware revenue. Xbox Live revenue increased 17%, driven by higher revenue per transaction and volume of transactions. Video games revenue grew 34%, driven by the launch of Halo 5 and sales of Minecraft. We acquired Mojang AB (“Mojang”), the Swedish video game developer of the Minecraft gaming franchise, in November 2014. Xbox hardware revenue decreased 16%, mainly due to lower prices of Xbox One consoles sold and a decline in Xbox 360 console volume, offset in part by higher Xbox One console volume. Gaming revenue included an unfavorable foreign currency impact of approximately 4%.

https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar16/index.html
 

Bl@de

Member
Wild prediction:

They are going to try to nab Cyberpunk 2077 as an Xbox exclusive (and PC, like Rise of the Tomb Raider).

I could also speculate about Sakaguchi, but I don't think they believe his name can still be something bombastic to accompany Scorpio at this year's E3.

I don't think they have an interest in that. Cyberpunk 2077 will be a DRM free game published on their own Store. I don't see the point of hurting your own storefront and lose goodwill. And losing an 50+ millionen customer base. At least not from CD Projekt. They have 100% DRM free approach when it comes to their own games. On top of that I don't even think their games are that popular in the US compared to Europe. Their games are classic eurojank RPGs.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
Did SO have much of an MP element? Ori didn't.

Seems like they've actually been quite SP-heavy on their exclusives, actually.

They had like maybe a handful of SP games, but a few had multiplayer or co-op. SUNSET OVERDRIVE, RYSE, scalebound, Project spark was a community game like Minecraft, QB, Ori, and Recore are the only ones I can think of that straight up dont have multiplayer or some sort of co-op.

Majority of what they make almost all have Multipler, co-op or are multipler focused period. Crack down 3 wont be single player focused. It's going to have a huge multiplayer component.
SOT is multiplayer mostly from the sound of it.
They are making a habit of curating a library with very few narrative single player focus. Even Gears of war 4's campaign you can play up to 3 people co-op and it's a pretty short campaign.

halo 5 is super short campaign. The work they put in is mostly in the co-op/online expierence.
With Ryse, QB, ori, dead rising being the outliers.
 

Apathy

Member
Cyberpunk 2077 isn't launching on any PC storefront before launching on GOG, and it seems extremely unlikely MS want to invite sales comparisons with any store and the W10 appstore.

I don't think they have an interest in that. Cyberpunk 2077 will be a DRM free game published on their own Store. I don't see the point of hurting your own storefront and lose goodwill. And losing an 50+ millionen customer base. At least not from CD Projekt. They have 100% DRM free approach when it comes to their own games. On top of that I don't even think their games are that popular in the US compared to Europe. Their games are classic eurojank RPGs.

I don't think some people know that gog is part of cdp
 
If MS manages to nab Cyberpunk 2077 after the immense success of TW3, I'll be super impressed.
There is no chance of this nor do I see how this would benefit cdpr in the long run. Doing something like buying timed exclusives is exactly what put them in this hole in the first place.
 

Kssio_Aug

Member
Sea of Thieves, Halo Wars 2, and Crackdown all have potential to be good exclusives for 2017. It may not be exactly what some people were wanting but I grow tired of listening to people continually throwing around the xbox is only Gears, Halo, and Forza. And I feel like counting Ori and the Blind Forest and Recore games as non exclusive simply because those games are also on PC is a dudebro excuse. Quantum Break ended up being okay. Sunset Overdrive was fantastic. If you look at Nintendo, they didn't even release a Zelda game for the Wii U, nor a Metroid Game this gen, which are two of their more beloved franchises. Whatthehellisthat.gif?

Its silly to say the xbox doesn't have appeal when it actually does. The reality is that different people have different tastes. MS has had to overcome some massive obstacles after having coming out of the gates flat on their face with the xbox one. The position they're in now is pretty remarkable if you consider where most people thought they'd be. All that is to say is that I don't think it's as doom and gloom as some people make their situation out to be.

I think MS was doing fine since a while. Ori, Quantum Break, Crackdown 3, Sunset Overdrive, Sea of Thieves, Scalebound, Phantom Dust... in fact, really promising / good titles there and definitely adds to the console diversity.

The problem is that:

1) Crackdown 3 may not deliver the experience they were selling. I still don't buy that cloud computing thing, specially cause my internet connection is quite unstable. I believe to have a proper experience with a game that recquires so much cloud computing it may be necessary to have a very stable and constant connection.

I already consider kind of a pain to deal with some MP connection issues sometimes... I can't imagine going through it for a single palyer game. I'm not talking about losing connection (it is recquired to pretty much everything today), but about lag, ping, stuff like that.

Also, the game may be presented during this E3. But they better show actual gameplay and a release date, otherwise I will assume they can't deliver it.

2) Sunset Overdrive was great! One of the best surprises this gen if you ask me. I was expecting MS to make a deal with Insominac and do a Sunset Overdrive 2 as soon as possible. Well... they've worked with R&C for PS4 and now they're busy with Spider-Man. I may be surprised (hopefully) but I don't think there's a deal for SO2... which is a shame.

3) The new Phantom Dust came back to the oven. Again, maybe they're gonna surprise me and show a game in advanced stage of development, almost ready to be released. I think that's very unlikely though.

4) Remedy seems to be working on something else. I don't know when they're gonna be able to make a new MS exclusive game.

5) Ori and the Blind Forest is great. But don't get me wrong, they're gonna need a big budget title to call strong attention. Still I hope the team is working on Ori 2, would be a great addition, and actually a plausible one.

6) Sea of Thieves may deliver or fail hard. While being an Destiny / Divison kind of game I have to say that it doesn't grab my particular interest. Can't deny these were successful games though, so it may work well for them... but they need to show PvE.

7) Scalebound was cancelled. No need to talk about though.

What I want to say is that they have lost some good oportunities here. And besides going to the right direction before, it seems like they came back to scratch now. There's more to Xbox than the classic trio of Halo / Forza / Gears... but giving the direction they're taking, how much more will they offer from now on?
 

Aces&Eights

Member
I remember when people were saying Phil had the power to turn everything he touched to gold. Now?

YslhQau.gif
 

Papacheeks

Banned
I think MS was doing fine since a while. Ori, Quantum Break, Crackdown 3, Sunset Overdrive, Sea of Thieves, Scalebound, Phantom Dust... in fact, really promising / good titles there and definitely adds to the console diversity.

Issue is QB, was mediocre Sunet Overdrive came out in a bad time and would have benefited a much bigger push to something like titanfall got.

Phantom Dust canned, Scalebound canned, and sea of thieves looks cool but it looks liek it's contingent on you playing with friends to get the most out of it. Same could also be said about crack down 3 depending on how that game turns out.

Nothing they have put out besides a few have they really been doing a great job being behind unless it was part of a major franchise like gears, halo, forza. I mean look at how much screen time at E3 and shows those games get compared to something like Sunet over drive.
 
Its Phil's birthday today? Just seen a tweet! Let's wish him a happy birthday and remember the turn he provided with his xbox team and the brand.

happy Birthday Phil!
 

Nestunt

Member
They would run it into the ground in less than two years.

I am not saying that I would want that or that they would run it properly.

It's just not such a farfetched scenario if they wanted to compete in the PC space and have a strong games studio at the same time, having in mind the amount of money MS as a company lives with.

The question here is: does MS care for Gaming and Windows Gaming, in particular?
 

aeolist

Banned
I am not saying that I would want that or that they would run it properly.

It's just not such a farfetched scenario if they wanted to compete in the PC space and have a strong games studio at the same time, having in mind the amount of money MS as a company lives with.

The question here is: does MS care for Gaming and Windows Gaming, in particular?

buying them for the store would be entirely pointless because MS clearly does not want to run a DRM-free storefront for win32 games so basically all they'd be doing is shutting down GOG.

buying them for their games makes slightly more sense but it would be a hugely expensive purchase to get a studio that puts out one new game every 3-5 years when they have no interest at all in the other half of the company.

the development and publishing philosophies of CDPR and microsoft could not be further apart. i don't see any reason to consider this even remotely plausible.
 

Crayon

Member
I am not saying that I would want that or that they would run it properly.

It's just not such a farfetched scenario if they wanted to compete in the PC space and have a strong games studio at the same time, having in mind the amount of money MS as a company lives with.

The question here is: does MS care for Gaming and Windows Gaming, in particular?

Gog is great. So is cdpr. It would be a tragedy for PC gamers if Microsoft bought them and no good would come of it. Even MS should know this.

You should say a hundred Hail Marys for having such depraved thoughts.
 

4Tran

Member
I am not saying that I would want that or that they would run it properly.

It's just not such a farfetched scenario if they wanted to compete in the PC space and have a strong games studio at the same time, having in mind the amount of money MS as a company lives with.
The problem with this idea is that Microsoft doesn't want to compete in the PC space. What they want to do is to convert their customer base into users of the Windows 10 Store, and this is the antithesis of what GOG is all about. If Microsoft really did want to compete in the PC space, then they could do so quite easily with all of the talent and expertise they have on hand. But they wouldn't want to tie themselves down with a modest effort like GOG.

The question here is: does MS care for Gaming and Windows Gaming, in particular?
Not in the slightest.
 

Nestunt

Member
Gog is great. So is cdpr. It would be a tragedy for PC gamers if Microsoft bought them and no good would come of it. Even MS should know this.

You should say a hundred Hail Marys for having such depraved thoughts.

I am a pessimist by nature.

But if I was running a business with the amount of cash of MS and I was interested in Gaming wholeheartedly I would either -- 1. Develop talent internally; or 2. Look at what my competitors are doing better and learn or acquire the know-how.
 

vpance

Member
A thousand times this. There is a lot of talent at 343 and Coalition. MS should let them branch out and work on new IP.

Unfortunately, it must be getting to a point where it's too risky for them to do that. You can afford to branch out more when your user base is larger and/or you're the leader. They should've started back in the 360 era.
 

aeolist

Banned
I am a pessimist by nature.

But if I was running a business with the amount of cash of MS and I was interested in Gaming wholeheartedly I would either -- 1. Develop talent internally; or 2. Look at what my competitors are doing better and learn or acquire the know-how.

what they're doing with the windows store does not map to GOG or steam in a meaningful way. if they want to poach talent to make it better they need to get people from apple's app store or google play.
 

sense

Member
I like Phil overall but I feel like this continues to happen. Our very own MH Williams put up an article going over all the things announced in 2014 that have all but been axed: http://www.usgamer.net/articles/revisiting-xbox-e3-2014-remembering-the-dead

I almost forgot how much.

Every time this happens, fans start questioning him and the platform's direction, Phil gives the standard reply "we're committed to games and first party", and then you get the "Ok, phew, thanks Phil!" though that seems to be waning now.

Thing is, you need to allow your teams to branch out and take risks creatively. That's how you grow a brand and ecosystem and new fan bases. This has nothing to do with console war bs, but Sony does this and it's evident. One of their flagship studios known for first person shooters was allowed to take 5 years to build a post apocalyptic open world RPG with a female lead and robot dinosaurs. Another studio (Sony Santa Monica), even though its initial new IP failed, was allowed to radically revamp one of their biggest and most beloved franchises (God of War). Both huge risks. Sucker Punch is on a new IP. Bend is on a new IP, etc. Naughty Dog took time to develop a new IP that's arguably their biggest yet. That's how these become successful franchises.

Besides Rare, which is basically their new IP testbed though relegated to service driven games, Turn 10 works on Forza, Black Tusk was transformed into a Gears factory, 343 is relegated to Halo...it's just tired at this point. To me anyway, even though I still enjoy those series a lot. I want Xbox around forever. I was there day one with my OG Xbox and fell mad in love with Halo, but damn...give us new and exciting things man. I mean nurturing internal first party talent, not signing more deals that don't go anywhere.

excellent post. some people keep saying they are happy with halo, gears or forza and third parties are what sells consoles but at the end of the day if you want to be competitive in the market and gain a foothold in EU markets, you need to do more to convince gamers that have moved to ps4, nintendo or pc rather than just more power.
 

4Tran

Member
I am a pessimist by nature.

But if I was running a business with the amount of cash of MS and I was interested in Gaming wholeheartedly I would either -- 1. Develop talent internally; or 2. Look at what my competitors are doing better and learn or acquire the know-how.
It's not a significant concern because Microsoft isn't interested in Gaming wholeheartedly, nor are they even that interested in revenue from Gaming. Right now, investment in Gaming is primarily designed to drive more customers to Microsoft's core businesses. The ROI on that hasn't been very good so far, and so we hear stories about the Xbox budget getting slimmed down.
 

krang

Member
It's not a significant concern because Microsoft isn't interested in Gaming wholeheartedly, nor are they even that interested in revenue from Gaming. Right now, investment in Gaming is primarily designed to drive more customers to Microsoft's core businesses. The ROI on that hasn't been very good so far, and so we hear stories about the Xbox budget getting slimmed down.

Which is a bizarre strategy. The more they invest in games, even single player games, the more people will get an Xbox and will probably get Live.
 

patapuf

Member
I am a pessimist by nature.

But if I was running a business with the amount of cash of MS and I was interested in Gaming wholeheartedly I would either -- 1. Develop talent internally; or 2. Look at what my competitors are doing better and learn or acquire the know-how.

GOG exists because of DRM free games.


That's a strategy MS will never ever be willing to implement. All moves they've made on PC has been against being open and aimed at establishing a closed apple/google store like environment on windows. No amount of know how will help with people not wanting that.
 

LordRaptor

Member
Can't the entire company be acquired by MS as a strong push to compete with Steam in the PC space?

The entire reason this thread was started should be an indicator that "But MS is rich they can just buy whatever they want!" is not as true as many would like to think
 

Seik

Banned
Remember when MS locked Star Ocean 4 for Xbox 360 for a couple of years? Lost Odyssey, Blue Dragon, Infinite Undiscovery....all exclusives! Those are the games that made me buy an Xbox!

I know lots of people diss the game (SO4), but I love it to death.

THIS is the kind of exclusive you need to lock, just like Scalebound, provide variety!
 
The entire reason this thread was started should be an indicator that "But MS is rich they can just buy whatever they want!" is not as true as many would like to think.

This; They're not going to continue flushing more millions &/or billions down the toilet without a proper ROI like they've did since 2001.

Scorpio will be the ultimate test, & if that doesn't make strides, it could be the end of Xbox at least as a hardware business.
 

Sydle

Member
I am not saying that I would want that or that they would run it properly.

It's just not such a farfetched scenario if they wanted to compete in the PC space and have a strong games studio at the same time, having in mind the amount of money MS as a company lives with.

The question here is: does MS care for Gaming and Windows Gaming, in particular?

Back in 2014, the CEO got rid of the Entertainment and Devices division, putting the Xbox team in the Windows division with Spencer reporting to the EVP of the OS Group. That should tell you everything.
 

longdi

Banned
Funny you mention these can't be done because of the NFL/TV deals costing the division. You know who did those?

Phil Spencer. It used to be up on his bio proudly on Xbox.com stating he brokered the $400m deal, but they've removed it in the last year or so.

Edit: ha, found it! Thanks archive.org: http://web.archive.org/web/20140729075638/http://www.xbox.com/es-CL/Press/Corporate/phil-spencer



Curiously, his new bio doesn't mention this. Wonder why?

Interesting find! People shit on Don, but dont remember both Phil and Don worked hand in hand on Xb1? Phil was in-charge of bringing in the games!

What was his results for Xbox gamers? Death of Japanese games till date. Contraction of first party titles. Indies were unhappy(ironic that 360 was the one that kick-started the indies). Broker TV deals as above... and Phil probably had a big say in Xb1 (underwhelming) specs because he was supposed to be talking to developers. Maybe if Don (with his gaming background) had switched roles, Xb1 lineup could have been better off!

Even after Don left, Phil for a period, still defended their DRM Cloud Service thingie. Core gamers still didnt buy his crap, so he quietly shut up. I would say the praised Xbox emulation, is really a step back into his DRM Cloud Service idea. UWP and all.

Dude appears too corporate-y to me and feels like an extension of MS PC gaming doldrums When someone who has little background with games, starts wearing 'gamer T-shirt' , it is bound to raise some scepticism. Tweeting many of little substance, and no one replies to a tweet question with a PR WOT...

MS should bring back Allard imo...
 

4Tran

Member
Which is a bizarre strategy. The more they invest in games, even single player games, the more people will get an Xbox and will probably get Live.
The issue is that, for the greater Microsoft, getting more Xbox owners and getting more Xbox Live subscriptions is a bit of a dead end. Gaming as a whole just doesn't bring in sufficient ROI, so it has to be more about synergy with the rest of Microsoft's products. Back when Ballmer was CEO it wasn't as big a deal, but Nadella is all about services so Xbox is in a lot more danger.
 
If he was willing to take risks then they would have released Scalebound this year instead of cancelling it mid-development.

By "risk" he probably means releasing a new Forza, Gears or Halo, maybe in a different genre like Halo Wars (probably about as risky as I think they will get) if that game sells sufficciently
 

aeolist

Banned
The issue is that, for the greater Microsoft, getting more Xbox owners and getting more Xbox Live subscriptions is a bit of a dead end. Gaming as a whole just doesn't bring in sufficient ROI, so it has to be more about synergy with the rest of Microsoft's products. Back when Ballmer was CEO it wasn't as big a deal, but Nadella is all about services so Xbox is in a lot more danger.

what they really want is to turn xbox live into a google play-style smorgasbord with people using it to buy every kind of content along with social features to keep them engaged

the massive failure of windows phone/mobile has probably killed that ambition entirely though, and i doubt console owners are buying enough music and movies from the service to justify the entire division
 

vpance

Member
If he was willing to take risks then they would have released Scalebound this year instead of cancelling it mid-development.

They want to take risks, but not too much risk 😑 It's just a code word for budget, or max loss, and not really about pleasing diverse tastes.
 
what they really want is to turn xbox live into a google play-style smorgasbord with people using it to buy every kind of content along with social features to keep them engaged

the massive failure of windows phone/mobile has probably killed that ambition entirely though, and i doubt console owners are buying enough music and movies from the service to justify the entire division

You have to think longterm. Right now theres obviously less people on xbox then there was on 360 last gen. But the 360 was very profitable for them, even with the 3 red lights fiasco. They see the potential. But the only way they will get there again is if they dont fuck up the consoles launch like they did xbox ones.

The xbox one name isnt associated with positivism. It has the same association as Vista had for MS then. No matter how much they improved it, it was still Vista.

This is why i firmly believe that Scorpio NEEDS to drop the xbox one name.
 
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