Nope, they're not. Not in France anyway.
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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Nope, they're not. Not in France anyway.
I mostly agree with that, too bad the bolded part exist.
Though referendum are part of democracy, if we can be misled on a "yes/no" question just imagine how we could be misled on a program!
Not in his program? What is this then? https://laec.fr/s62m4 Have you actually read his program? Or just played Fiscal Kombat?
10 referenda since 1958-09-28, in other words, one every 2,139 days. So yes, if you want to vote more often than that (notice I said every day, not every six years), get yourself elected.
What is it with the fatalism concerning the FN in five years? If you guys can read this far into the future, you should buy some stocks and place some sports bets while you're at it.
Alx
Member
As far as I'm concerned I hadn't read all of it either. I'm just discovering that he's supporting China for a worldwide currency. Makes me even more suspicious about his goodwill towards EU and Euro...
I think his point was more: Why do you assume you cannot do both?
Where does the program said "Leave one for the other"?
Not everything is exclusive.
You do know that does not mean the yuan as a worlwide currency yes? It means supporting a long time project that aims to counteract the power of the dollar.
Alx
Member
... and of the Euro.
Once again, from his program: https://laec.fr/section/51/plan-a-p...ue-des-traites-europeens-par-la-renegociation
So: blackmail Europe into doing what I want, and what that inevitably goes sour, who cares, I had a plan B waiting up my sleeve the whole time: an alter-globalist alliance with the BRICS!
Tribes of Trusty
Member
Well I guess I'm going to do an elimination proces. I'm in this case personally : http://www.legorafi.fr/2014/03/21/l...voter-pour-le-parti-quils-detestent-le-moins/
Yeah, not the same part, unrelated mesures.
It's like saying "Multiplier les coopérations avec les pays émergents pour repousser les frontières de la connaissance et de l'humanité (coopération spatiale, maritime )" means we're leaving ESA to build rockets with Brasil.
You're making connections where there are not.
"Le plan B, c'est la sortie des traités européens unilatérale par la France pour proposer d'autres coopérations."
It's cooperation with European countries.
It's exactly like with the ALBA bullshit "Oh god he's leaving the EU for the ALBA" where this is not the case. France would enter negociation with ALBA for Guyane and its caribbeans territories. And being in the EU or not has nothing to do with it.
ALBA in which Russia is not by the way.
Which would not be a problem if we all use the same currency?
Right now the dollar has too much power, and he's being handled by one country which only serve its own interests.
Start discussions and actions toward a common currency does again not mean we abandon the euro.
Alx
Member
If the final goal is for all to use the currency initiated by China, then Euro must die at some point on the way. Or at least it would be an obstacle to it. So yeah it makes me even more sceptical when people say "don't worry Mélenchon is pro EU" when the end of EU would rather help his plans.
Regarding JLM, I've spent a lot of time looking at his program. I like a lot of it. But his European policies (and foreign relation policies in general) are way too incompatible with my beliefs to consider voting for the man. Foreign relations is where the President holds the most power.
I have friends who are pro-JLM, in part because they think the EU is an irrecoverable mess and that we would be better off without it/starting again from scratch. I disagree with their beliefs towards Europe, but at least their support of JLM is logical.
I have other friends, who call themselves pro-Europe, but who turn a blind eye to JLM's decidedly-not pro-Europe program. Those people I have more of an issue with. They are lying to themselves.
Imagine having a xenophobic friend supporting MLP. You'd disagree with his positions, not his vote intention. His vote intention would be logical. Imagine another friend who thinks we should take in more refugees, but also supporting MLP. That friend you'd have an issue with their voting intention. It's the same thing with JLM and Europe. Stop lying to yourselves.
Have you tried some of the tests posted in this thread? Like the one by Le Monde?
To overly simplify things, if you care about Europe, it's Macron, if you don't it's JLM (assuming you're not a fascist or xenophobe, and you don't want to elect a crook).
I have friends who are pro-JLM, in part because they think the EU is an irrecoverable mess and that we would be better off without it/starting again from scratch. I disagree with their beliefs towards Europe, but at least their support of JLM is logical.
I have other friends, who call themselves pro-Europe, but who turn a blind eye to JLM's decidedly-not pro-Europe program. Those people I have more of an issue with. They are lying to themselves.
Imagine having a xenophobic friend supporting MLP. You'd disagree with his positions, not his vote intention. His vote intention would be logical. Imagine another friend who thinks we should take in more refugees, but also supporting MLP. That friend you'd have an issue with their voting intention. It's the same thing with JLM and Europe. Stop lying to yourselves.
Have you tried some of the tests posted in this thread? Like the one by Le Monde?
To overly simplify things, if you care about Europe, it's Macron, if you don't it's JLM (assuming you're not a fascist or xenophobe, and you don't want to elect a crook).
What's interesting for me is the hypocrisy of Mélenchon voters laughing at Fillon for betting the house on a second round against Le Pen when they're pretty much doing the same.
Mélenchon would be crushed by Macron and probably by Hamon (but I haven't found any poll on that), the only reason he might win against Fillon is because he is corrupt as fuck, Fillon would have killed him before the scandals.
And yet, you're going to use this really fluky win (Mélenchon can only be elected if he squeaks past Macron in the first round and faces Le Pen in the second) to blackmail everyone else in Europe to get exactly what you want, even though not a single European country has signaled that they support Mélenchon's plan (not even Greece!).
Basically your goal is to use the terrible state of politics in France and Europe to ram through a project that is rejected by a majority of people in France and at least 75% of Europeans (these european statistics are straight out of my ass, but if you add all the people to the right of the extreme left in Europe I don't see how you don't get at least that many people, especially counting the countries who don't even have an extreme left worth mentioning). And that´s the good scenario where negociations go well! What a marvellous way to show how great Europe can become, by forcing everyone to bend to the will of France because fuck you, we're a bigger country than you.
Mélenchon would be crushed by Macron and probably by Hamon (but I haven't found any poll on that), the only reason he might win against Fillon is because he is corrupt as fuck, Fillon would have killed him before the scandals.
And yet, you're going to use this really fluky win (Mélenchon can only be elected if he squeaks past Macron in the first round and faces Le Pen in the second) to blackmail everyone else in Europe to get exactly what you want, even though not a single European country has signaled that they support Mélenchon's plan (not even Greece!).
Basically your goal is to use the terrible state of politics in France and Europe to ram through a project that is rejected by a majority of people in France and at least 75% of Europeans (these european statistics are straight out of my ass, but if you add all the people to the right of the extreme left in Europe I don't see how you don't get at least that many people, especially counting the countries who don't even have an extreme left worth mentioning). And that´s the good scenario where negociations go well! What a marvellous way to show how great Europe can become, by forcing everyone to bend to the will of France because fuck you, we're a bigger country than you.
Apparently, 2 islamists have been arrested today at Marseille. It seems they had planified an attack against Fillon during the election:
http://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/te...endant-la-presidentielle-arretes_2151177.html
http://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/te...endant-la-presidentielle-arretes_2151177.html
Alx
Member
People should really learn what the "loi du talion" was about...
... and we really should do something about our prisons. Why look for terrorist recruitment camps when they're already hosted in French official buildings ?
Tribes of Trusty
Member
Yeah but well, centrist leaning right on certain issues and left on others isn't easy.
I wouldn't vote JLM because I disagree with him on several points and it would be shooting myself in the leg considering my job.
I'll just read all of the programmes for the next few days
True. The next president should be helped by a good economic context - unless something bad happens, obviously.
http://www.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/vi...-un-contexte-economique-favorable-934417.html
MonsieurPaul
Neo Member
Maybe it's the results of the "Loi Macron" ?
MonsieurPaul
Neo Member
Yes. The country still has to recover from the leftist policies put in place by the first government Hollande. ;-)
Well no.
A 2nd turn Melenchon - Fillon could happen and I don't think Fillon wouldn't be able to win if he plays it right (the opposite would've been unthinkable had there not be the "Penelopegate", but that's another story)
I mean Fillon is supposed to gather people from right to center right, most of the potential voters he lost probably went to Macron and Dupont-Aignant and asides some catchline ("Emmanuel Hollande") most of what he showed on the political side seems to be there to try to attract ... Le Pen electors, all of his center right support just despise what he's doing and are keeping a low profile because of it.
Sarkozy did the same thing 5 years ago with Patrick Buisson, it didn't pay in the short term and only help increase the FN's influence in the long term.
So not only it doesn't work, it's also harmful for everyone because it banalizes every topic he brings that the FN also uses
Fiscal policies from Ayrault's government
You could call if "leftist", but the biggest policies (the one that cost billions) would've been the same under a rightist government
Namely
chromatic9
Member
I said it's fallen in recent years which it has. Nice try going back to 2012 but no. Also shown Spain's has fallen. EU is trending to a recovery, we'll see if it continues.
Yep.
Wait you're a centrist? How is this election hard for you? Or are you the opposite kind of centrist to Macron (Center-left on business/economics, center-right on social issues)?
True, but if the candidate lies or misleads you, it is not as impactful - he is but one man and you can remove him from office in the next election. Once a referendum passes, especially on something like the EU and the Euro, there's no backsies
E: now that the euro zone is recovering it would almost be funny if France quits the Euro and sends us back into a depression, we're finally recovering after 10 years!
I'm also rather annoyed that this election itself is basically a referendum on the EU.
So you haven't even read his program, great!
Any kind of trade treaty has to be done through EU, so you can't have both. If this is just some kind of political statement and nothing else, is pointless. Considering that Melenchon talks about funding BRICS, it sounds like a trade treaty to me.
As part of the EU customs union, it's illegal for countries to sign bilateral trade deals or be part of other customs unions. So yes, it would be mutually exclusive.
Uhhhh what about the last referendum we've got in 2005 lol?
Or referendum only works when you say yes?
It didn't strike me as one of the biggest topic in the election so far, Le Pen and Asselineau are openly talking about leaving EU, Dupont-Aignant is against it, Macron wants to keep it as is, Fillon is leaning a bit more on the sovereignist side, Hamon wants to change it, Melenchon wants to change it and is more adamant about it
The only candidate who makes it a big part of her campaign is Le Pen.
I don't think french electors are thinking about EU first when choosing who to vote for.
6 months ago we had that poll, the order probably changed since then but EU shouldn't be that much higher.
I'm confused by your reply - I dislike them in general, not because I like them for some things and not others
and I'm not French so I'm unsure what referendum you're referring to.The poll you gave is interesting, thanks.
It was a referendum on the EU. From which there happened to be a backsie.I'm confused by your reply - I dislike them in general, not because I like them for some things and not others
In what sense, it passed and then they went back on it? Kind of defeats the point of having referendums?
OT: Participation is climbing nicely, I'm glad France still gets out to vote in droves.
Yes, pretty much.
The EU constitution, when we said no and then the parliament said yesI'm confused by your reply - I dislike them in general, not because I like them for some things and not others
The poll you gave is interesting, thanks.
That should never have been done by referendum imo. I remember reading people using it as an argument to explain why the UK won't leave the EU. It's such a PR disaster.
See, I'm definitely pro-EU, warts and all, and I obviously want it to be better, but even I voted against the EU constitution project back in 2005. The thing was such a contrived mess that only lawyers and people fluent in legalese could even begin to understand the contents and implications thereof. When you don't do a good job of explaining shit to people, they'll reject you.
So yeah, I agree with you: it should never have been done through a referendum.
After reading about Nate Silver's herding reports on the polls I went back to the first round polls in 2012 and 2007 (in which I assumed y'all fixed the shock from JMLP in 2002) and they also looked like they were herded and the final results were off by 1-2% at most from the average result - impressive polling, although I'm sure the field this year is far more uncertain.
Dutch referendum happened right after the french one, back then they said that the french result would heavily influence the dutch result, not sure how true that is though.
It was useless as we all got the Lisbon Treaty which was 99% the same thing anyway.
It's an important referendum though, because back then Melenchon was still at the PS and was a strong supporter of "No" while Hollande was on the "Yes" side.
In fact Hamon and most of his current supporters were also on the "No" side already, you already had the split between the traditionnal socialists and the more center right which were socialists in name only (except Fabius who was on the "No" side because he was gambling on the "No" winning to make himself looks like a good presidential candidate for 2007)
Cevipof for Le Monde gives (paywall)
Macron 23%
Le Pen 22,5%
Fillon 19.5%
Mélenchon 19%
Fillon & Mélenchon still going up, and Macron & Le Pen still going down.
So far it's been better than House of Cards to follow, suspense wise.
Macron 23%
Le Pen 22,5%
Fillon 19.5%
Mélenchon 19%
Fillon & Mélenchon still going up, and Macron & Le Pen still going down.
So far it's been better than House of Cards to follow, suspense wise.
You may have polls where there's a bigger difference between 1st and 4th, but the gap is getting smaller for each of them if you compare them with their previous occurrences.
GhostTrick
Banned
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
Really scared of a potential Fillon vs LePen faceoff in the 2nd round. Being able to run against a "Corrupt establishment elite" is probably her wet dream and gives her the best chances to win.
Hope Macron pulls through.
And hope people actually go to vote, right wing nationalists are the ones that profit massively from low voter turnout, as demonstrated by Brexit and Trump.
Hope Macron pulls through.
And hope people actually go to vote, right wing nationalists are the ones that profit massively from low voter turnout, as demonstrated by Brexit and Trump.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
no
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Not you, Hamon. Not you too.
Nobody but hot basic girls in their 20s should be allowed to Snapchat filters.
Nobody but hot basic girls in their 20s should be allowed to Snapchat filters.
And Mélenchon pulling out Naruto references
https://mobile.twitter.com/jlmelenchon/status/854387339153604613
https://mobile.twitter.com/jlmelenchon/status/854387339153604613
Alx
Member
Nah you can pull it off if you have enough swag.
I honestly hope we'll get a decent president out of those elections, or else the memories of that stupid campaign will hurt our souls for decades.
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