Systolique
Member
Haha, glad I could help you vote Hamon !
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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Haha, glad I could help you vote Hamon !
He says that Opinionway is doing a poll on their own, but despite what RTBF claims, it's not data from Opinionway. Pure fake.
Alx
Member
It could be an internet poll by opinionway, but not a "sortie des urnes" as claimed by the news (especially since there's no "sortie des urnes" poll done this time, by any institute)
Ah thanks
jack_package_200
Banned
I really really hope Macron makes it to the second round.
Le Pen must not happen
Le Pen must not happen
Systolique
Member
It says either RTBF are absolute morons and manufactured a poll from nothing.
Or it's an INTERNET poll from opinionway based on good faith (in other words ; trash)
Tribes of Trusty
Member
The result could be anything, I can't wait for tomorrow and have all of my patients talking politics /s
Blackpuppy
Member
They're saying that they weren't actual exit polls but just random polling.
He's saying Opinionway denies that the numbers are coming from their shop. So it's either a fake poll or Opinionway is lying and calling bullshit on their own data.
TheMan
Member
in the US we bitch about the electoral college all the time. grass is greener and all that.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
Why not?
BlindCommunication
Member
Yeah those institutes were forced to make that "no exit polls" promise this year because the previous elections "results" were all over the internet a couple hours before the end of the embargo thanks to RTBF, TSR and even BBC. I remember French medias weren't happy at all about that.
Pretty sure it's illegal even from Ipsos and the likes to sell these early exit polls to foreign medias, none of them will admit to it for sure : http://www.francesoir.fr/politique-...ureaux-presse-instituts-rumeurs-manipulations
chromatic9
Member
Think it will be Macron and other and if it's Le Pen she'll get easily beaten in the next.
It's an odd bunch and they poll very close so I wouldn't like to bet on any. Macron not featuring next would be quite something.
It's an odd bunch and they poll very close so I wouldn't like to bet on any. Macron not featuring next would be quite something.
Because I like checks and balances. Having the option to have polls with direct democracy to some topics should still be an option.
Maybe I should have said full direct democracy.
Yeah, you guys have another kind of shitty system.
RTBF don't state that's Opinionway, do they?
And I can believe that Opinionway is not disclosing officially their data (they definitively *have* data, even if they don't have enough data to plot reliably a result) but an Opinionway insider can still illegaly send their data. Or wrong data. Not saying that's the case, but it can be anything, including true data, or completely fake.
Polling your panel once they've voted is not that different...
I'm sure there's plently of polls going now, there's not a chance that the candidates don't want to be updated.
A friend just sent me these results for North-America
Yup. These numbers don't surprise me. They are pretty similar to the little survey I made while I was waiting in line to vote yesterda. It was a pretty small sample but I guess it was enough to get a good picture of the voting landscape.
Yup. These numbers don't surprise me. They are pretty similar to the little survey I made while I was waiting in line to vote yesterda. It was a pretty small sample but I guess it was enough to get a good picture of the voting landscape.
gutter_trash
Banned
Direct Democracy gave Erdogan ultimate power and a Brexit
Normal citizens are just too daft.
Normal citizens are just too daft.
Justin Trudeau effect vs Donald Trump effect
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Did you read the quote? People are dumb and don't know what they're doing.
Voting is only a method for keeping politicians accountable to the people, that's it. It's not a method of arriving at the right answer. We don't need a referendum for what colour shirt to wear that day like Le Pen is suggesting.
Something something Churchill.quote something something
Mass_Pincup
Banned
There's already checks and balances in our system since you need to have at least 500 sponsorship from elected figures in at least 30 different "départements".
That ensure that everyone can't just decide to run for presidency, that they have some legitimacy and aren't completely inadequate. Or do you think that it's not enough?
I would argue that the people like Rodolphe are a minority. The fact that he went to vote without any conviction is weird to me. I would expect most people like him to stay at home.
Palette Swap
Member
Welp, next time I have an internet access, the results will be out. See you guys on the other side.
That's what the Libération guy says :
https://twitter.com/LibeDesintox/status/856155571074084864
Note how the article was modified a few minutes ago.
It's easy to feel like this (I know I feel every 2 minutes) but the correct thing is to see it as a sign that we should invest more into democracy. Just having it and not involving people in democracy, educating about the importance and workings of it creates these kind of situations.
An example I like to bring up is: Go ask people in western-style democracies how important they think democracy is, they'll probably all say it is important. We all got this in school. Then go on and ask people about how the system works and/or how they can participate in it themselves (outside of being elected) and people would be a lot less certain about their answers. Here lies the problem in my opinion.
Either we do that or are doomed by being led by demagogues or technocrats.
gutter_trash
Banned
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
How long until the results come in? The betting markets have moved in the last 2 hours and seem to think it's Macron and Le Pen going to run off.
Officially, 1h50 for the first official count.
They'll be pieces of information filtering before that. Usually, just looking at the people in HQs is really informative.
Even if it's a leak, the person that leaked it can have written anything. Noone can validate the data. SO it can be a leak AND false.
best of all the horrible systems or never talk to a voter?
And what does it say?
Not really talking about the numbers (and I'd expect all media to have people everywhere) but rather how they behave.
I mean, last time, people were singing "We have won" before the results... ^_^
The whole thing is a kind of tartuferie, even if it's for good reasons.
Many people at Mélenchon's HQ, including 600 authorized journalists.
Doesn't mean much without a point of comparison.
The second one
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter
- "Lot of people at the local reserved by Mélenchon, near Gare du Nord. 600 journalists accredited."
- "TVs are in the place for Mélenchon."
Mass_Pincup
Banned
A lot of people (journalists) are gathering towards Mélenchon's HQ.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
It is the most important election in the western world in the last 30 years.
BlindCommunication
Member
RTBF defending their sources and explaining why they decided to publish those early "exit polls" : https://www.rtbf.be/info/monde/deta...-elle-les-estimations-de-resultats?id=9587877
(Pretty sure they greased some hands to obtain them despite what they say)
Le Pen HQ must be quite worried, this is much tighter than she'd have liked.
(Pretty sure they greased some hands to obtain them despite what they say)
Le Pen HQ must be quite worried, this is much tighter than she'd have liked.
I'm French and I disagree. It's the probably the most important European election since the creation of the EU but I feel like Trump vs Clinton was the most important election in the western world since the end of the cold war.
Alx
Member
Yeah the behaviour of TV journalists is making me nervous right now, so many of them gathered at Mélenchon's "café".
Democracy doesn't say everyone should vote, though.
But for all we know, this guy could be right and us be wrong...
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