except i never said switch would fail, my predictions is 35-40 million, stop making false accusations. i said the wiiu would fail and predicted 13-14 million after launch, i was also right about the specs, maybe that bother's you?
40 million for a Nintendo handheld would indeed be a massive failure. What on earth are you talking about
This post should come in handy.Simply amazing to see people ignoring the fact that Nintendo could have never justified huge Switch shipments after the flop that was the Wii U and underwhelming 3DS sales. You'd almost think the last 6 years never happenend.
Everybody who's comparing this to Sony with the PS4 is ignoring that Sony was able to succesfully build momentum with the PS3 after the release of the PS3 slim. Enough to the point that the Playstation brand was in a good enough position to take over after Microsofts bumbling with DRM.
The Wii U on the other hand, was never able to regain any momentum at all. Because of that, Nintendo could have never justified shipping the same amount of Switches as Sony shipped PS4's back in 2013/2014. The numbers for that level of confidence just weren't there.
Same thing goes for the 3DS: a handheld that, until the second half of 2016, had peaked in sales in its second year and declined year on year despite the release of heavy hitter titles such as Pokemon. Regardless which lens you'd use for the Switch, sales are drastically outpacing those of their earlier platforms. There simply isn't a way that you would be able to quantify, predict and then justify that level of demand on the basis of those numbers.
To steal a good phrase out of my native tongue: it seems the best players are on the sidelines with Nintendo. But hey, Gaf am gonna Gaf amirite.
Nintendo's supply chain management practices in an aggregate sense baffle me. The video game industry has one of the highest stockout costs of any industry I've ever seen, yet all of their hardware platforms are in chronic short supply.
What press didnt think they'd hit it? Playstation monthly or something?
except i never said switch would fail, my predictions is 35-40 million, stop making false accusations. i said the wiiu would fail and predicted 13-14 million after launch, i was also right about the specs, maybe that bother's you?
I'd say 35-40 million would be a failure. Not that much higher than the N64 and that would be after Nintendo merged their handheld and console divisions so it'd be a huge drop from the total of the Wii U / 3DS, let alone every other generationexcept i never said switch would fail, my predictions is 35-40 million, stop making false accusations
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mynint...do-switch-bundle-announced-for-july-21st/amp/If they come out with a splatoon 2 switch bundle I will jump in.
This post should come in handy.
see my quoted post above
That I don't quite know but I can't think of a reason why it wouldn't unless Nintendo pulls a NintendoThanks. Is this for USA? Will the bundle include the new colored joy cons?
Uh puhleeze, most everyone in this forum knows your raging bias against Nintendo. The Switch could outsell the PS4 from here to the end of the year and you would still find a way to spin that into something negative.
What's being discussed by others is actual data and historical comparisons, not conjecture. It launched in March, has shipped a large initial amount by historical standards, and remains effectively sold out coming up to three months in. It's a conservative projection at this point that the Switch outsells the Wii U within a single year, and it's never before been seen that a console with that kind of momentum stops suddenly when some kind of imaginary line of 'core fan buyers' is passed.I never hated nintendo though, they make some of the best games around. I think the wii and wiiu are garbage hardware wise, and always knew the wiiu would be a failure, and also said ti would be on par or maybe even weaker then 360/ps3 which i still believe to be true, paper specs also back this. that's were most of the beef came from with nintendo fans. i don't feel the same way about the switch, it's a good handheld and nintendo made the only choice they could, because people just don't want a nintendo home console anymore. i honestly don't know how well it will it sell, all depends how much the handheld market will decline with the switch, i guess 40 million, but well see.
Literally nobody is saying it is already the most successful console of all time, in past tense. Or a guaranteed 100 million selling huge success long term. But success is an extremely accurate description of its performance so far.Way to soon to call the switch a success, sales could fall off cliff once demand is met in a few months.
I wouldn't base my forecasts on previous failures, that just doesn't set the company up for success. I agree Sony is not really a good comparison as Sony's forecasting is also much more reliable since they basically recreate the platform from PS3 to PS4, and just upgrade the technology, but otherwise they can expect the same userbase and prospective customers to come through. Their forecasting should be steady and not prone to wild error. Nintendo follows a high-risk, high-reward strategy using special features like motion control or the portable/console hybrid feature of the Switch to sell consoles. So Nintendo's forecasts should include a much, much higher variability and range, which they should have been prepared for if they wanted to be able to catch the success if it came.
Regardless of the forecasts though there should be ways of meeting emergency demands with good supply chain management practices. It appears they haven't established the right supplier partnerships or have planned enough capacity flexibility. They might have supply bottlenecks like not being able to get enough key parts or being forced to use transportation by boat which has a very long lead time. For whatever reason the job just isn't getting done.
What's being discussed by others is actual data and historical comparisons, not conjecture. It launched in March, has shipped a large initial amount by historical standards, and remains effectively sold out coming up to three months in. It's a conservative projection at this point that the Switch outsells the Wii U within a single year, and it's never before been seen that a console with that kind of momentum stops suddenly when some kind of imaginary line of 'core fan buyers' is passed.
Meanwhile you post:
Literally nobody is saying it is already the most successful console of all time, in past tense. Or a guaranteed 100 million selling huge success long term. But success is an extremely accurate description of its performance so far.
May will be the true indicator. Seems like they're more widely available now. They gotta get more games to play on it too. If you're not interested in Zelda or buying MK8 again, the pickings are...slim. Needs more jrpg.
Nothing I'm suggesting is easy, building a flexible supply chain is very hard work. I'd argue nothing is easier than saying the status quo is fine and making excuses for suboptimal performance.The problem with all this talk is that in a vacuum, 3.5 million devices in the first two months (2.72 in March, approx 750k in April with the sales numbers we have) is a perfectly good number, both for Nintendo and historically for other consoles.
Nothing is easier than sitting here in hindsight and saying that 3.5 million wasn't enough.
you do realize the wiiu sold way more it's first 2 months then 360/ps3 did, so what's the point of looking at historical data at launch or launch period because supply issues are almost always a problem, by your logic the wiiu is a success it's first 2 months which to be fair it was going by historical data, i was impressed by the switch being sold out for this long but after seeing the shipment numbers for april it's to be expected, thats not enough to cover even nintendo fans pent up demand for nintendo next handheld/console with the biggest zelda title ever.
what i mean when i call it a success, is long term, many people already think it can do 100 mllion based on the launch.
No one is going to fall for that shit. The Xbox One and PS4 both outsold the Wii U in the first two months and ended up doing better in hardware sales LTD than the Wii U.
Comparing the worldwide Wii U launch to the PS3 which was $600 and only launched in US and Japan in 2006 is hilarious.
i'm only comparing US sales wiiu out sold both 360/ps3 its first 2 months if i recall correctly.
I'm more surprised the Switch got off the ground after the Wii's brutal wind-down realizations and the Wii U's abandonment of its supporters... We get something no faster with a collection of ports and it's somehow fine now? What am I missing? Seriously...?
I'm more surprised the Switch got off the ground after the Wii's brutal wind-down realizations and the Wii U's abandonment of its supporters... We get something no faster with a collection of ports and it's somehow fine now? What am I missing? Seriously...?
And we know the Xbox One and PS4 both outsold the Wii U in the first two months and did better in sales LTD that it's a better comparison to make since they are not consoles that were released 6 years apart.
We all know the reason why Vita fail it's because of its free online.It's a handheld (with paid online). It's going to print money!
I thought we were using historical data, xbone is selling much faster then switch at the moment though even at 500$, does that mean switch will sell less then xbox? or lets compare 3ds vs xbox one, i mean xbone destroyed the 3ds at launch yet i doubt xbone will ever even reach 45 million, compared to 3d which should reach 75 milllion.
Where Switch and 3DS launched in March and Xbox One launched in November. Do you still not get the context of things for why they happen rather than just looking at raw numbers?
i think you would have to be delusional to think it played that big of a roll, xbox1 one would have recked 3ds launch numbers even in march, there was way too much pent up demand for it.
Uh puhleeze, most everyone in this forum knows your raging bias against Nintendo. The Switch could outsell the PS4 from here to the end of the year and you would still find a way to spin that into something negative.
Already posted this in the other thread but
Switch First Two Months: 1186K
March: 906K
April: 280K
3DS First Two months: 592K
March: 398K
April: 194K
3DS First 6 months: 1175K
Wii U First 2 Months: 885K
Wii U First 6 Months: 1187K
Wii First 2 Months: 1080K
DS First 2 Months: 1225K