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Switch sales top 280,000 in the U.S. in April, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe tops 550,000 (US)
- Thread starter DKHF
- Start date
Pureauthor
Member
40 million for a Nintendo handheld would indeed be a massive failure. What on earth are you talking about
ninjablade
Banned
might be very disappointing for nintendo but not a failure. is the 3ds a failure? just cause it won't sell anywhere near the ds.
WTF? It's obvious playstation sabotaged the NS factory's. People will see the NS out of stock and buy the vita instead. Evil, clever Sony.
Kageshinzo
Member
Uh puhleeze, most everyone in this forum knows your raging bias against Nintendo. The Switch could outsell the PS4 from here to the end of the year and you would still find a way to spin that into something negative.
TwistedFreeze
Member
I'd say 35-40 million would be a failure. Not that much higher than the N64 and that would be after Nintendo merged their handheld and console divisions so it'd be a huge drop from the total of the Wii U / 3DS, let alone every other generation
I wouldn't base my forecasts on previous failures, that just doesn't set the company up for success. I agree Sony is not really a good comparison as Sony's forecasting is also much more reliable since they basically recreate the platform from PS3 to PS4, and just upgrade the technology, but otherwise they can expect the same userbase and prospective customers to come through. Their forecasting should be steady and not prone to wild error. Nintendo follows a high-risk, high-reward strategy using special features like motion control or the portable/console hybrid feature of the Switch to sell consoles. So Nintendo's forecasts should include a much, much higher variability and range, which they should have been prepared for if they wanted to be able to catch the success if it came.
Regardless of the forecasts though there should be ways of meeting emergency demands with good supply chain management practices. It appears they haven't established the right supplier partnerships or have planned enough capacity flexibility. They might have supply bottlenecks like not being able to get enough key parts or being forced to use transportation by boat which has a very long lead time. For whatever reason the job just isn't getting done.
TwistedFreeze
Member
That I don't quite know but I can't think of a reason why it wouldn't unless Nintendo pulls a Nintendo
ninjablade
Banned
I never hated nintendo though, they make some of the best games around. I think the wii and wiiu are garbage hardware wise, and always knew the wiiu would be a failure, and also said ti would be on par or maybe even weaker then 360/ps3 which i still believe to be true, paper specs also back this. that's where most of the beef came from with nintendo fans. i don't feel the same way about the switch, it's a good handheld and nintendo made the only choice they could, because people just don't want a nintendo home console anymore. i honestly don't know how well it will it sell, all depends how much the handheld market will decline with the switch, i guess 40 million, but well see.
D.Lo
Member
What's being discussed by others is actual data and historical comparisons, not conjecture. It launched in March, has shipped a large initial amount by historical standards, and remains effectively sold out coming up to three months in. It's a conservative projection at this point that the Switch outsells the Wii U within a single year, and it's never before been seen that a console with that kind of momentum stops suddenly when some kind of imaginary line of 'core fan buyers' is passed.
Meanwhile you post:
Literally nobody is saying it is already the most successful console of all time, in past tense. Or a guaranteed 100 million selling huge success long term. But success is an extremely accurate description of its performance so far.
The problem with all this talk is that in a vacuum, 3.5 million devices in the first two months (2.72 in March, approx 750k in April with the sales numbers we have) is a perfectly good number, both for Nintendo and historically for other consoles.
Nothing is easier than sitting here in hindsight and saying that 3.5 million wasn't enough.
ninjablade
Banned
you do realize the wiiu sold way more it's first 2 months then 360/ps3 did, so what's the point of looking at historical data at launch or launch period because supply issues are almost always a problem, by your logic the wiiu is a success it's first 2 months which to be fair it was going by historical data, i was impressed by the switch being sold out for this long but after seeing the shipment numbers for april it's to be expected, thats not enough to cover even nintendo fans pent up demand for nintendo next handheld/console with the biggest zelda title ever.
what i mean when i call it a success, is long term, many people already think it can do 100 mllion based on the launch.
But they're not.
Nothing I'm suggesting is easy, building a flexible supply chain is very hard work. I'd argue nothing is easier than saying the status quo is fine and making excuses for suboptimal performance.
Nintendo has had a great launch, but it's a situation akin to the iPhone 5s and 5c launch a few years back where Apple sold a phenomenal 6 million but underforecasted demand (or under produced) by about 3 million. It's a congratulatory amount but in the spirit of continual improvement necessary for businesses they still need to do better.
No one is going to fall for that shit. The Xbox One and PS4 both outsold the Wii U in the first two months and ended up doing better in hardware sales LTD than the Wii U.
Comparing the worldwide Wii U launch to the PS3 which was $600 and only launched in US and Japan in 2006 is hilarious.
ninjablade
Banned
i'm only comparing US sales wiiu out sold both 360/ps3 its first 2 months if i recall correctly.
And we know the Xbox One and PS4 both outsold the Wii U in the first two months and did better in sales LTD that it's a better comparison to make since they are not consoles that were released 6 years apart.
idiotic post.
It's a handheld (with paid online). It's going to print money!
ninjablade
Banned
I thought we were using historical data, xbone is selling much faster then switch at the moment though even at 500$, does that mean switch will sell less then xbox? or lets compare 3ds vs xbox one, i mean xbone destroyed the 3ds at launch yet i doubt xbone will ever even reach 45 million, compared to 3d which should reach 75 milllion.
clay_ghost
Member
We all know the reason why Vita fail it's because of its free online.
Where Switch and 3DS launched in March and Xbox One launched in November. Do you still not get the context of things for why they happen rather than just looking at raw numbers?
ninjablade
Banned
i think you would have to be delusional to think it played that big of a roll, xbox1 one would have recked 3ds launch numbers even in march, there was way too much pent up demand for it.
You really don't understand the point I am making seeing as you you moved onto console warrior mode about fictional hardware launches.
"Switch is a hybrid, is the substitute of both their home and portable streams, and to not be considered a failure should be able to outsell their usual portble + home system numbers; of course not 3DS + Wii U, that sold badly and make Nintendo bleed money, but their most healthy ones. So, or the Switch will sell 255 millions (ds + wii) or it will have be a failed experiment"
(cit.Ninjablade, 04/13/2018)
(/joke)
3DS was really overpriced damn...