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[darkinstinct]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXWnHl6MCyI

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/d...usd-how-much-will-true-next-gen-consoles-cost

Very intresting talk. If next gen comes in the next two years or something we are gonna pay alot more then we like.

Which is why next gen won't come in the next two years. Realistically next gen will feature 16 GB RAM, 12 to 16 Teraflops (I'd say Nextbox closer to 16, PS5 could get away with 12, probably both with 14). And we will see a launch price of 499 for each of them, though one might launch a year earlier for 599 (PS5) and then drop to 499. It all depends on how Scorpio sells. Judging by PS4 in 2013 with 2 Teraflops to 6 Teraflops at a higher price in 2017 for Scorpio I think 14 Teraflops for 499 will only be possible in 2022. And a 8 or 10 Teraflop console would just not be the jump in power that people expect from a $500 device. So yeah, next gen is far away. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a second PS4 Pro before that.

 

[Daffy Duck]

Imagine spec of Scorpio by with the rumoured Zen Nov next year. Same spec with a much better CPU would be a massage centres upgrade.

Is this a typo or are massage centres the standard for upgrades?

 

[Angel_DvA]

400/500 is fine, 400 for the base PS5 and 500 for the PS5 Pro launching simultaneity would be pretty good.

 

[Gemüsepizza]

It's not 2013 anymore, inflation is a thing. $399 from 2013 would be around $435 in 2019. Sony isn't a charity, they are in the money-making business.

How many PS4 consoles have been sold at this time? 60 million units? That means Sony could lose $35 * 60,000,000 = $2.1 billion if they ignore inflation. You think they will do that?

The circumstances have also changed considerably since 2013. At that time, Sony was a company which was struggling hard. They had massive competition through Xbox 360. Their next console had to be a success. That's why they needed to be aggressive with pricing.

Now the situation is different:

- PlayStation is by far the best-selling console.
- They enjoy gigantic popularity, people love PlayStation and their first party offerings.
- Microsoft is struggling.
- Xbox consoles have been repeatedly priced at $499, people are getting used to seeing this price.

I doubt that Microsoft will release an Xbox Two for less than $499. They don't want to be in the second place again when it comes to specs. And Sony knows that, that's why I think PS5 will also be $499, and people will buy it.

 

[Dragon Puncher]

Xbox One X is a product deliberately aimed at the high-end crowd with a lot of disposable income. The next console cycle will presumably be aimed at mass appeal like usual so there's more incentive to price lower and maybe sell at a small loss. It also probably won't start before 2020, so there's plenty of time for parts to go down in price.

I think this generation have showed us that $400 is the sweet spot of new consoles and anything above that will get hit hard by consumers.

 

[jobrro]

Really like DF but the XBX has no bearing on what a next gen console will cost. It is meant as a premium product and we are a few years off next gen.

If consoles end up being closer to $499 than $399 it will be because of inflation. I think for Sony with the PS4 and Pro they made what they could, when they could to target $399. Microsoft chose a more premium experience with the X and the Xbox One which originally had the Kinect 2 although suffered in gaming power.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the PS5 either break $399 or ship with a higher end Pro system from the outset, but if the base model breaks that $399 I feel like it will be because of inflation rather than a need to cool higher TDP hardware etc.

 

[Stilton Disco]

You know, one thing I am taking away from this video, is that I think MS really over egged the XOX.

There's way too many expensive, custom components in what is fundamentally just a souped up XO. There really does not seem like a huge amount of wiggle room to get that price down in the long run, and I can't help but feel that's not going to be the case for the PS4Pro's more straight forward design, and I now think we're only going to see the price difference between the two increase as time goes on.

It really does not bode well for price cuts and a sustainable, growing market once the die hard fans and tech enthusiast early adopters get their fill.

Given that even the dirt cheap XOS sales fell off a cliff this year already, I'm even less convinced this is going to be the 'saviour of the Xbox brand' MS were hoping for than I was previous, and I've always been pretty sceptical on that notion.

 

[odhiex]

It is an interesting take from DF, but I wouldn't dare to take my bet right now.

It is still way too early to speculate.

 

[Yohane]

still $500-ish

 

[Skux]

$500 didn't work the last time they tried, and it won't again here.

 

[Renekton]

I wish for $499 baseline at least.

Can fit in SSD cache and nicer specs.

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

I really hope consoles are more powerful than a high, mid-tier PC of last year in the year 2020.

I'm not trying to sound condescending, I just hope tech has moved on past what we have now, allowing cheaper and more efficient hardware by then.

I don't think it needs to be all powerful on paper to get great results, I mean look what they have done with the ridiculously under powered Jaguar and the GPU in current gen. Games like Uncharted 4 look insanely good considering the hardware limitations.

Consoles always punch above their weight because of the optimised nature of the systems. Graphics are already fantastic, so something a little more powerful, alongside a faster CPU and more RAM will really allow developers to deliver better framerates / AA / textures ect, on top of the already great graphics.

 

[Jashobeam]

maybe they launch with a vanilla PS5/PS5Pro and vanilla X-Box Two/X-Box Two X simultaneously?

 

[General Lee]

I think it's a dumb idea to stretch the base PS4/Xbox One for near a decade as the base line experience. PS360 era was 7 years, and those consoles were really high end during their launch whereas this gen was at best midrange.

$500 is probably the minimum for next gen, but there's a lot of pressure to go higher if you want a more significant upgrade with things like HBM2 and Zen on a 7nm process. Otherwise next gen will barely make a difference.

I think MS could actually go for a more PC-level device closer to $1000 than $500, if it had full W10 capability and desktop streaming to any monitor in the house, so it could be a relatively affordable but full featured gaming PC with access to other stores. In reality though it would probably still have the limited 10 S operating system because MS can't help pushing their store, which would essentially ruin the idea.

 

[geordiemp]

I think as long as ps5 plays ps4 games then 3 tiers of hardware is fine.

Ps4 - 200
Ps4 pro - 350
ps5 - 500

As long as ps5 is worth the upgrade, (Ryzen, 8 TF GPU and 326 GB/s bandwidth and maybe 12 GB), then it will sell. The main killer would be Ryzen and framerates,

Multiplat devs can slap 60 FPS on the Scorpio version and that would be enough.

Marketing would focus on a true 4k60 capable machine for the big AAA games, not just racing games like Wipeout and Forza.

 

[jobrro]

I wish for $499 baseline at least.

Can fit in SSD cache and nicer specs.

These days they could add an empty M.2 slot and allow the user to fill it (as a cache for the installed HDD).

The Xbox One and PS4 launched with a 500GB HDD which is laughable with the sizes of some games. I can understand why they didn't go with a larger size ($$$) but at the same time if you are buying a hard drive personally the jumps between capacity are not that big. It won't happen since they need to sell it working from inside the box, but I would rather a SKU without the storage so I could choose my own capacity. It's not a big deal if external storage is supported early, but in the case of PS4 it took a few years.

 

[JimiNutz]

$500 or $550 I don't think they will risk $599 for a while.

 

[Raonak]

PS5 will be $399.

Sony has found the sweet spot, PS4Pro follows this price exactly.
They basically decided the price, then found the best parts they could for that price.

The biggest jump will be the CPU.

 

[JusDoIt]

I expect this gen to last almost as long as last gen. Sony seems intent on not breaking the $400 threshold, and they'd be wise to wait until next gen tech drops to that level. It makes sense given the Pro was released three years after the original PS4. The Pro won't be three years old until late 2019. Sony could easily push the lifecycle until 2020 because I can't imagine Microsoft refreshing the One X before then.

 

[Gwyn]

Maybe release more SKUs to drop the price

No 4k Blu-ray/disc drive, i am all digital anyway and there are plenty reports that digital is rising, so if we get to the point of 50-60% digital at 2020 it wouldn't surprise me to see a "digital" SKU and regural SKU

Also i have elite controller, so the controller that comes with xbx is again useless and i am 100% sure that xb1s/x controllers will be compatible with nextbox

So no controller no disc drive next time please

 

[Bits N Pieces]

It's pretty simple for me, they will just wait it out for the tech to be more affordable which means longer console generations like the last one. There is zero chance of Sony or MS taking a big hit on the build cost so they'll just wait until they hit the $399 spot.

A new console in 2018/19 is a pipe dream right now.

 

[Bowl0l]

Maybe release more SKUs to drop the price

No 4k Blu-ray/disc drive, i am all digital anyway and there are plenty reports that digital is rising, so if we get to the point of 50-60% digital at 2020 it wouldn't surprise me to see a "digital" SKU and regural SKU

Also i have elite controller, so the controller that comes with xbx is again useless and i am 100% sure that xb1s/x controllers will be compatible with nextbox

So no controller no disc drive next time please

what if Microsoft sells you a DVD that contains the XBox OS for $100?

 

[Gwyn]

what if Microsoft sells you a DVD that contains the XBox OS for $100?

i guess you missed the point where it's optional

 

[Kuro]

I'm still salty about no UHD drive on PS4pro and I still haven't bought one solely for that reason.

 

[Dee Dah Dave]

Hopefully $500 for both PS and Xbox, with as much tech packed in as humanly possible. Consoles need to stop sucking, especially in the CPU department.

 

[jobrro]

It's pretty simple for me, they will just wait it out for the tech to be more affordable which means longer console generations like the last one. There is zero chance of Sony or MS taking a big hit on the build cost so they'll just wait until they hit the $399 spot.

A new console in 2018/19 is a pipe dream right now.

Last gen I was thirsty for a new console for years. This gen we have upgrades that do pretty well on their games compared to PC ports.

I don't see why Sony especially would want to jump to next gen before 2020. Look at Nintendo. The Switch is out but Nintendo is still putting out games on the 3DS because it has been out a while and has a good install base. The PS4 install base doesn't seem to be slowing down, so why rush the PS5 unless against all odds the Xbox One X starts to dominate sales.

 

[Radec]

I'm guessing sony will still aim for $399, but they will put a much better CPU this time.

MS will go for $499 again

 

[Get_craycray]

Than*

This mistake annoys me (like it's/its).

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

Most likely $400, it's the sweet spot.

No console has ever had a successful launch at $500.

 

[Quasar]

I'm fairly certain it's going to be at least 3 years until the next batch of consoles.

I do keep thinking we'll see Sony announce in 2019 for a 2020 release.

That said I do think they are between a rock and a hard place. Include genuinely next gen specs and you get dinged for cost (as the days of PS3 like subsidies are gone) or otherwise you get another PS4...dinged for processing power.

Of course who knows maybe Sony will follow Nintendo and go hybrid so they can try to stay relevant in Japan.

 

[Shin]

I'd like to point somethings out which weren't taken into consideration by this article.

• XBox One controller costed 100m for R&D (same controller used for 1S/X, so no additional cost there)
• PS4 used a second in line CPU of AMD's performance APU (1.6Ghz without any OC), PS4P/X use the best available which is clocked at 2.0Ghz
• PS4Pro OC'd that CPU to 2.1Ghz and 2.3Ghz respectively for X, that's all the customization X did to it and nothing else (I believe, but wait for DF to prove this)
• A BD drive costs approximately $18 a UHD drive costs approximately $33
• The $30 for 4GB of GDDR5 is a new find and I finally got an answer to a question I've been dying to know
• I'm using a GTX 980M GPU in my laptop, notice only the xx80 cards use vapor chamber, they didn't need it I think but it severed their purpose with cramping it all into the smallest box possible as there's no wasted space on the PCB
• Research & Development costs are down compared to the original Xbox, beside Nintendo which seems to go up since they do their own thing with all sorts of architectures
• RX480 (5.8TF) was launched in 2016? and at $329 - $399
• Vega Eclipse 10.7TF (launches next month) according to it's clock speed, compute units and stream processors per CU and is a mid-tier card (Vega Nova is the high-end version) that is supposedly to be priced at $399
• If Microsoft switched to a 7200RPM drive and passed that on as 40% boost/innovation that's really laughable (it's great but the PR around it is silly)
• Microsoft is making money on X, they aren't selling it at a loss, the big money maker comes from games and services
• $500 ain't bad for a PS5P if launched simultaneously with PS5, for the rest you guys can figure out how much TF/price it might have/be and what's not.

I probably left out more stuff as I haven't slept yet since yesterday...
Everyday I'm researching PS5, components, costs, progress, Fab nodes and everything related to it as it interests me a lot.

 

[Tal Shiar Agent]

"Inflate"

A 400 dollar box in 2 years won't be meaningfully more powerful than a 500 dollar one this fall.

Unless they eat the cost, which after 6 years selling for a profit they can do.

 

[gogogow]

I do not agree with what he said in the video, how a PS5 released in 2018 (that's too early imo, more like Fall 2019 at the earliest) wouldn't be a generational leap compared to XBX. The thing is, XBX is a very powerful console, but Richard Leadbetter is forgetting that it's being heldback considerably by the XBO. Same with the PS4Pro. He's probably only comparing the amount of TFlops. The problem is Sony and MS releasing mid-gen upgrades. Without it, we would be going from 1.3-1.8 TFlops machines to around 10 TFlops machines. PS5 will be unchained and the devs can optimize it to the max. Graphics-wise and physics-wise, I believe we will see a generational leap, even if the next-gen consoles are releasing relatively soon.

 

[Stillmatic]

I'd guess Sony would have the same goal they had with PS4. A smartly designed console that's reasonably powerful, and hits a sweet spot price wise ($400).

But I wouldn't be against spending $500 if it's a beast and true new gen.

 

[Elios83]

Not more than 400$ if they want to sell.
The design process should be targeting a price and certain key innovations that they want in the box and then assembling the best hardware they can for that price.
500$ is not going to work just like it hasn't worked in the past,same for "power first and then price" design philosophy.

 

[Sjefen]

I think Sony will keep 400$ pricetag for PS5 and still manage to take a profit. So just 30-40% more powerful than xbx in 2019, should be managable.

 

[Bits N Pieces]

Last gen I was thirsty for a new console for years. This gen we have upgrades that do pretty well on their games compared to PC ports.

I don't see why Sony especially would want to jump to next gen before 2020. Look at Nintendo. The Switch is out but Nintendo is still putting out games on the 3DS because it has been out a while and has a good install base. The PS4 install base doesn't seem to be slowing down, so why rush the PS5 unless against all odds the Xbox One X starts to dominate sales?

The X1X won't come close to dominating sales, probably even in its launch month and I agree completely with the rest of your post. Sony are making bank just now and that's only going to continue for the next few years as costs come down so why would they jeopardise that by releasing new hardware just a two years after the Pro, just so a small minority of gamers can feel good on forums and social media? lol, c'mon.

 

[TLZ]

Why is a premium mid gen refresh compared to next gen to begin with? More clicks?

 

[Withnail]

PS10 to be $999 confirmed

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

"Inflate"

A 400 dollar box in 2 years won't be meaningfully more powerful than a 500 dollar one this fall.

It will be. As you should be aware, MS were slightly too early to take advantage of Ryzen-based APUs, which will be far more powerful and efficient compared to the Jaguar-based design inside X and Pro.

 

[Trup1aya]

You know, one thing I am taking away from this video, is that I think MS really over egged the XOX.

There's way too many expensive, custom components in what is fundamentally just a souped up XO. There really does not seem like a huge amount of wiggle room to get that price down in the long run, and I can't help but feel that's not going to be the case for the PS4Pro's more straight forward design, and I now think we're only going to see the price difference between the two increase as time goes on.

It really does not bode well for price cuts and a sustainable, growing market once the die hard fans and tech enthusiast early adopters get their fill.

Given that even the dirt cheap XOS sales fell off a cliff this year already, I'm even less convinced this is going to be the 'saviour of the Xbox brand' MS were hoping for than I was previous, and I've always been pretty sceptical on that notion.

Isn't that who this Box is targeted at?

Xb1S will continue to see price drops.

I don't think xb1x was ever intended to 'save the brand'. That job is left up to MS' expansion into other platforms, and services focused models.

 

[pswii60]

If Xbox One had a credible CPU upgrade it would be next gen.

 

[Sad Affleck]

Well I was hilariously wrong about X1X's price so I think that this time I will trust the experts and expect a $499 launch price for next gen.

 

[napata]

I'd like to point somethings out which weren't taken into consideration by this article.

• RX480 (5.8TF) was launched in 2016? and at $329 - $399
• Vega Eclipse 10.7TF (launches next month) according to it's clock speed, compute units and stream processors per CU and is a mid-tier card (Vega Nova is the high-end version) that is supposedly to be priced at $399

• 
  
  480 was launched below $240 I think. I think the 4gb one was $200. Vega is not replacing Polaris. The 580 is the current mid range chip and Vega Eclipse isn't replacing that. It will probably end up slightly above the 1070. $400 cards are pretty much high end cards. A good comparison is the Fury X, Fury & Nano line of products.

 

[jroc74]

Yea just started talking about this in a thread a few hours ago.

Does make you wonder:

Does Sony try to outdo the XBO X or do they go more conservative, have the same specs? Or do they do their next console looking at the Pro and not the XBO X? I think its safe to say MS was looking at the Pro.

I think if they try to outdo the XBO X its gonna cost $499 at a minimum.

But....$499 might be easier to digest for next gen vs mid gen refresh.

 

[jobrro]

If Xbox One had a credible CPU upgrade it would be next gen.

A 4x GPU and 1.5x RAM capacity upgrade would be a pretty terrible generational upgrade when most of the older consoles went around 10x GPU and 16x RAM capacity over their previous generation.

 

[Philippo]

10-12 TFLOPS
3.0 GHZ Ryzen CPU
16GB RAM
1-2TB SSD HD

Would this be feasible for PS5 in Fall 2019 for 399$?

 

[Monkeyball]

Next gen will probably take a while.

 

[Backfoggen]

$400 but not before 2020

 

[Napalm_Frank]

I can't imagine Sony aiming for anything other than 399. There also is a difference between what X is and what next gen is. X is meant to be a high end product, PS5 will aim to be for mass market, even at launch (at least relatively like PS4).