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Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
kraspkibble
Permabanned.
it's almost 4 years old though. in 2019 it will be 6. that's long enough for me. i want a PS5 in 2019/2020.
Won't buy the next one till they do a system with more space or a new model. Should have waited with ps4 till the 1tb version and more games were out but hype got it to me sadly lol was satisfied with ps4 after bloodborne and witcher were out tho.
So if it's out in 2019 it's halfway thru 2020 or 2021 for me (seems like the do a smaller or more space model 1.5-2 years after launch based on past systems)
So if it's out in 2019 it's halfway thru 2020 or 2021 for me (seems like the do a smaller or more space model 1.5-2 years after launch based on past systems)
Shin
Banned
OMG yes, I haven't thought of that haha, that could end up being the scenario.
So many things to consider when launching a new console in such a competitive space.
I know that but I'm talking about more specialized co-processors & accelerators for offloading the lighting & things like that.
Ray Factory x3
PowerVR ray tracing with Unreal Engine 4
What do you want? FPGA or fixed function stuff?
Something like PowerVR Wizard for lighting & shadows or the Enlighten engine done at the driver level on the DPU.
geordiemp
Member
Not really, Switch has sold 4-5 million and the dedicated fanbase would snap it up anytime of the year.
The timing will be more to do with 7 nm APU timing then the dev time to pull it together IMO. I am for 2019
I got mine in 2013, it struggles to run most games at 60 FPS with a weak jaguar, its not strong anymore.
Its time for better experiences and 2022 would loose me to PC. Heck 2020 would be too long, Sony need to start making noises.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
I know it is easy and somewhat understandable to say Jaguar is/was weak but it has to be remembered that Cerny and his team consulted with all Sony's internal teams and 16 third parties.
It is them that were seemingly happy with 8 Jaguar cores. We have lots of comments about the RAM during PS4 development and how devs changed that yet I don't remember much of any complaints or talk about the CPU except in threads like this.
It is them that were seemingly happy with 8 Jaguar cores. We have lots of comments about the RAM during PS4 development and how devs changed that yet I don't remember much of any complaints or talk about the CPU except in threads like this.
Theonik
Member
There was nothing else they could have used in an APU from AMD. The only other viable option was ARM which I'd have preferred actually.
You can see how off some developer's expectations off of the PS4 were by looking at some launch window games and how they were scaled down. AC: Unity is one such example.
You can see how off some developer's expectations off of the PS4 were by looking at some launch window games and how they were scaled down. AC: Unity is one such example.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Right and that reality seemed to be accepted by devs. I do find it confusing that Ubisoft seemed to expect more CPU but what are the chances that both Sony and Microsoft didn't share that their new consoles would only have Jaguar?
I think that is on Ubisoft and they have tried to blame them for their mistake....
Negotiator
Member
That's because most 1st party devs write code (multithreaded, GNM API) that better suits the AMD hardware.
3rd party devs (especially those that come from a PC background) tend to write code (single-threaded, GNMX) that doesn't run that well on AMD hardware (AMD PCs included) compared to Intel/nVidia (which is the norm in PC gaming).
GNM = Mantle/DX12-like API
GNMX = DX11-like API
Even on XBOX ONE, DX12 isn't the norm yet and this hurts performance.
Theonik
Member
A game these days takes about 3 years to develop. Final specs and especially actual development hardware won't be available to third party devs closer than a year from release, there is some disclosure on several stages though but really a large part of launch game development is done using breadcrumb info, informed guesses/speculation and using similar off the shelf hardware. Many devs didn't expect how weak these CPUs were in practice before they got their hands on them but even then, they still coped OK for the most part when they had time to scale down games to fit these machines.
I don't think we will ever see a overly powerful CPU in a video game console again for the simple fact that powerful CPUs are for when you don't know what type of work you're going to be throwing at your computer but with consoles you pretty much know what you're going to be doing with the hardware for the next few years.
The consoles might not keep up with big powerful PCs but they most likely would have got left behind even faster if more of the resources went into a more powerful CPU.
PS3 started this route towards highly multi threaded code with CELL being nicely leveraged by first parties. That continues with jaguar + more granular GPU compute.
Devs need to get on board with multi threaded parallel development - I don't see any return to high single threaded performance on consoles.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Honestly I find it it highly unlikely Ubisoft as one of the biggest third parties didn't know! We knew nearly a year out Jaguar was being used!
I'd love to read an insight from a dev of what the process really is when it comes to a new console and the evolution of dev kits and discloses from Sony/MS.
Matt, you're up!
Theonik
Member
Many of our leaks come from Ubisoft remember? We start learning specific details a short while after third parties do, and even then 2/3 of the game's development would be done on limited info if they learned about a year out. Most of the decisions regarding the overall scope and design of a game are done relatively early on!
6 years seems right on the money actually. I mean look at every other full iteration Sony has put out. Roughly 6 years between them.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Did they? I can't say I've seen it confirmed but it wouldn't be so surprising I guess. Two years would seem to be more than enough for Ubisoft to have rejigged Unity if Jaguar really did come as a surprise as they largely fixed the issues in a year flat with Syndicate.
Like I say I would love for other devs to come in here or make a new thread to give an insight in to what really happens behind the scenes from a devs POV in the lead up to a console launch.
Souldestroyer Reborn
Banned
Why didn't you just swap out the HDD yourself or buy an external drive?
It literally takes 30seconds to change the HDD and about £40-60 for a 2Tb HDD.
I'm not talking about ARM's "big little" at all. I mean different cores with compatible ISA running threads at the same time.
The Nintendo DS had that (with some severe shared memory access limitations) before "big little" was even a term.
autoduelist
Member
While it may not seem like it when reading enthusiast forums like this one, the majority of console gamers are not chasing tech. They aren't buying day 1, or even year 1. Or even year 2. Years 3 through 5/6, after a price reduction or two, is the sweet spot.
They are the majority, and they are the target. You need quick adoption by the early adopters too, to kickstart the generation, but they are just trend setters.
This is extremely important to remember, and it's something many people here completely ignore. The average buyer does not care that it's 4 year old tech. They don't care that the tech was outdated when it was launched, compared to PCs of the time. They do not care that they might be able to build a better rig themselves.
They want 3 things:
1) A relatively cheap console [think console, a controller, and a popular game or three bundled in]. Something like MGS, or GTA, or GoW... a big name even those that don't pay attention to the industry recognize. And after at least one, preferably two, major price drops.
2) Plug and play. Plug it in. HDMI it up. Put a disc in. Play.
3) Buy any new game on the shelves at Target or Best Buy. This is important - to them, even that $200 or $250 console bundle is a lot of money to spend on a 'console'. They want it to be 'new and shiny' for a couple years to come, and they want to be able to buy the new GTA or CoD or whatever when it comes out.
Number 3 is important. People like to say 'oh, even if the PS5 comes out that year, they can still get cross gen games'. No, that's not the promise they're buying into. They buy into a gen late but still want to feel 'cutting edge' - they've already been buying 'last gen' scraps for 4 years and they want to feel 'cutting edge' for awhile. That can only happen with a 7-10 year lifecycle. Shorter than that, and you're going to alienate them... nobody likes dropping hundreds of dollars on a device only to find out the 'new one' gets announced right after.
While this isn't the picture we have in our heads of the average console buyer, it's far closer to the truth than those lined up for PS4s on day 1. Early adopters are a tiny percentage of a console's lifetime sales.
I realize this is an unpopular opinion for many here, who want a gen every 4 years. Heck, I bet some people here want a new console every year or two, to keep it 'cutting edge'. But that's ignoring the actual console market. Consoles sell themselves as truly cutting edge at launch [even if they aren't], and keep that image for quite a long time. Someone buying a PS4 today for the first time is clearly buying into the 'new' gen, and thinks of it as a top tier gaming device. And they should. And Sony needs to respect that 'illusion'. They want their biggest subset of buyers to be able to trust in the brand, even when they buy into it year 5.
tldr -- Sony needs to recognize and respect that most of their buyers only want the 'best' current console at a cheap price, not truly 'cutting edge' tech.
Theonik
Member
I know. It's a terrible architectural choice. And completely unnecessary.
onemanasylum
Banned
2019 isn't soon, lol at 2022.....2019 will be 6 years.
Ammogeddon
Member
Reckon it'll be no earlier than 2020 till PS5 drops.
Native 4K, 60 FPS + would be nice but I think there's plenty more in the current consoles to entertain gamers and developers for the next 4 years.
Native 4K, 60 FPS + would be nice but I think there's plenty more in the current consoles to entertain gamers and developers for the next 4 years.
The CPUs in both the XBO and PS4 ended up being worse than expected by Sony and MS.
But there were no other options. They didn't decide it was good enough, they decided it had to be lived with.
Maroon Gamer
Member
Makes sense.
family_guy
Member
If someone has been sitting on a PS3 or Xbox 360 until now, then they have a huge back catalog of PS4/Xbox One games to play since late 2013. No one needs to cater to them. By 2019, they'll have 6 yrs of a library available to them, and the game prices on the old games will be cheaper than ever. They'll have plenty to keep them busy until they buy their next console in 2027.
Negotiator
Member
What exactly did Sony/MS expect to get from AMD?
ASilentProtagonist
Member
PS5 announced in 2019 then released for holiday 2020.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Wait...What? This is going to need more explanation if I'm understanding this right! Sony and MS didn't know they were getting weak Jaguar cores on APUs they were helping design and customise with AMD?
Also Matt if I can ask.....Do you have any knowledge or insight into when 7nm will be ready because I'm really not confident 2019 can be met if that is the target right now.
Couldn't say, but both were not happy with the final performance result.
Herp Derpington
Member
Dont see a point? It wasn't strong when it came out. It's 4 years old now. By 2022 it'll be 8 years old. Let's get some perspective here. You're ok with repeating the PS360 generation again? I mean I get that people want to get the most out of their investment but let's be a bit more realistic.
I don't know what process size they are planning.
That means nothing - for the entire history of "3d" capable consoles there's never been one with high-single-threaded performance CPU. And even going further back, the trends hold (console = weak CPU combined with fast specialized hw).tapantaola said:
While the PS3->PS4 gen jump can be seen as less worthwhile on CPU side, current consoles were arguably better off relative to PC-performance than just about any other generation to date at launch. Granted that was helped by CPU progress slowing down on PC as well.
Legacy code-bases can take a very long time to appropriately re-architect for newer paradigms, and it's becoming quite rare for anyone to approach this from ground-up these days - eg. perhaps the youngest shipping "AAA" engine on the market, what was used in Division - is already 7+ years old.mrklaw said:
Ultimately this is something middleware providers should tackle fastest, but it hasn't been the case historically either.
PS5 announcement in early 2020.
7nm+
8 core/16 thread - 3rd gen Ryzen - mobile variant for lower power consumption - 3.2 GHz
15 TF GPU
32GB RAM
PS5 is a well-balanced system between CPU, GPU and RAM. that developers want and need. Full BC with PS4 games.
Launch November 2020 right after the U.S. presidential election.
Graphics Horse
Member
You can demand recognition and respect if you want but don't expect to be the deciding factor of when they start selling a new product that you're not going to touch for years, and I say that as a late adopter myself.
It's often not even the same people,a lot of potential customers have gone from being children to university graduates in that time.
Worth remembering Sony were disappointed by how quickly sales of PS3 software and hardware dropped off when the PS4 came out, this time they have an opportunity to do things a little smoother if enhanced b/c of PS4 titles is in.
Negotiator
Member
There's a rumor that early PS4 devkits had a quad-core FX (Bulldozer) processor @ 3.2 GHz and they had to switch to Jaguar because of manufacturing constraints (TSMC -> GF).
Then again, FX CPUs are nothing spectacular in the PC gaming space either.
You're preaching to the choir, man... tell that to people who still believe that PPC CPUs @ 3.2 GHz are faster than Jaguar. MHz myth is still a thing.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Sure but it seems logical that 7nm is the minimum target reading this thread for a realistic 8-12TF PS5 given the 4.2TF Pro (6TF in one X with Vapor Chamber cooling) already arguably was pushing heat/power consumption etc at 16nm in a console. Right now I can't see that process being ready in very high volume in 2 years but who knows the foundries might surprise and come through.
Obviously I don't know what, if anything, Sony and MS are sharing with devs right now so it is impossible to judge how far along in the process they are. I don't really like to keep bothering you with questions, though...
I honestly don't remember, I have trouble keeping track of processor names for current chips, much less ones from 5 years ago.
You can ask whatever you want, I just won't answer most (or all) of it.
Back when PS4 was going to have 2GB of GDDR5 it also had steamroller (or bulldozer ) CPU
He is being realistic most people will be content with PS4/Xbox One & the higher models of these consoles for years to come & it will be awhile before PS4 graphics look outdated in the eyes of everyday people.
2blackcats
Member
6 years is fine. That's how long the PS2 had.
That's right, 6 years between PS2's release and that of PS3, even though PS2 was in production for at least double that amount of time.
Negotiator
Member
Did AMD breach any contract by not delivering what Sony/MS expected CPU-wise?
Clarkus Darkus
Member
The OG ps4 may have been out 4 years, But they want new buyers to purchase the Pro as there ps4 choice, Which was only released last year, We wont be seeing PS5 until 2020 in my opinion, Where 4KTV's may be alot more common, And broadcasters here in the UK actually broadcast in it.
I'm perfectly fine with the Pro for at least another 4 years.
I'm perfectly fine with the Pro for at least another 4 years.
The way PS4 is dominating we might get 7 or 8 years out of it unless the Xbox One X & the next Xbox One after that force Sony's hand & they have to stop the changing of the tide.