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[ExtinctionEvent]

For you financial modeling forecasting wizards, here is a helpful data point.

Activision has said on earnings conference calls Destiny 1 digital as a percent of total sales was "high-20s%"

Source -> https://twitter.com/firstadopter/status/697923870028906497

Quite a bit higher now I'd say.

 

[Mass Effect]

Is it outlandish to think +20% console digital +25% for PC? It seems reasonable to me based on what we've seen from other titles and that would close the gap a fair bit.

It's definitely possible; however, even if the growth in digital and the PC port only just makes up the loss difference, that still means decline. Because they added a completely new platform, but only match or just fall short of the original? And that's assuming that digital + PC makes up that ~60%.

Obviously Destiny 2 is doing well, far better than most games. Still though, the decline is notable. I wonder what the NPDs will look like. Too bad we probably will never know.

 

[120v]

aside from digital you can't gloss over the behemoth marketing push the first game had. i don't think activision felt like it was worth plunking down $200+ on marketing (number i completely pulled out of my ass, but you get the point) this time around to ensure a megaton launch.

most players will return, people who didn't care for it won't. so why try to convert a bunch of new players in one fell swoop when the game will be expanded on for a half decade or so.

 

[jett]

Sure, committed veterans will have higher digital uptake. Problem is vets are a minority when it comes to the overall success of a game. The broader market are voting with their wallets - after experiencing Destiny 1, they're ambivalent about the sequel. "The DLC redeemed it" narrative only works for the people who stuck around.

And as a year one player and season pass holder, I call BS on the DLC "redeeming" anything. Improvements were made, but Destiny remained more or less the same game, for better or worse.

For me, Destiny's greatest strength has always been its gunplay, and on a second plane its enemy encounter design. It always feels great to kill things in Destiny, getting headshots never gets old, like seeing a Cabal enemy's helmet pop out. You could probably make a case study using Destiny on how to design satisfying gunplay and enemy design in a FPS. Playing last year's lauded Titanfall 2 campaign really made me appreciate Destiny's gameplay loop. I feel nothing killing random grunts in that game.

Everything else did get old though, which is why I was only a year one player. I barely played the season pass content. But because 2~ years have passed since I last played this game, I'm kinda ready to hop back in with the PC version. I'll probably still quit next year, but I'll have had my fun.

 

[Obliterator]

For you financial modeling forecasting wizards, here is a helpful data point.

Activision has said on earnings conference calls Destiny 1 digital as a percent of total sales was "high-20s%"

Source -> https://twitter.com/firstadopter/status/697923870028906497

D2 should be sitting at 40% or above.

There are games already on the market that have hit that percentage

 

[-hadouken]

It's a fact that myself and around 20 guys that I play with bought physical for Destiny 1 in 2014. Every one of us bought digital for Destiny 2.

Average Joe walks into Tesco in Sep 2014 to do his grocery shopping. He sees a game called Destiny - buys it because he's heard of it. He plays, finds that it wasn't to his liking and puts it aside.

Joe isn't on your friends list, he hasn't heard of the Taken King and he didn't give D2 a second look when doing the shopping this week. The Joes of this world make up the vast majority of AAA game sales. Your anecdotal pool of 20 likeminded people isn't representative or relevant. Numbers are down in the U.K. despite the PS4/X1 now being in their prime.

 

[BigTnaples]

Everyone I know got it digitally this time around.



I bought the CE of D1 but with this game it's just easier than grabbing the disc constantly for 3 years.

 

[carlsojo]

Throw me onto the anecdotal pile of me and my friends went digital this time. We know the disc is worthless and we have to download the thing anyway.

 

[watdaeff4]

D2 should be sitting at 40% or above.

There are games already on the market that have hit that percentage

Which ones?

Not saying you are incorrect, but just asking for examples

 

[joecanada]

Throw me onto the anecdotal pile of me and my friends went digital this time. We know the disc is worthless and we have to download the thing anyway.

Fine throw me into the anecdotal pile of me and my friends skipping it after we all bought LE last time . This isn't going anywhere without numbers

 

[Obliterator]

Which ones?

Not saying you are incorrect, but just asking for examples

For Honor

 

[stryke]

I didn't know leeh had so many alt accounts.

 

[watdaeff4]

For Honor

Thanks.

I had said earlier in the thread that 35% was achievable for D2; then in light of this I'll bump it up to 45%

One thing I thought of is that many of the early buyers of D2 are going to be people who enjoyed the first and like the structure of Destiny. Due to this these early sales numbers are likely to even be more skewed towards digital than the final LTD numbers as this is the type of game people will want to fire up at anytime and are more likely to buy digital even if they usually buy discs.

I didn't know leeh had so many alt accounts.

i think I get this reference

 

[Obliterator]

I didn't know leeh had so many alt accounts.

If anything GAF regularly underestimates digital splits.

Yes leeh's 9 friends story was and is funny but it is pretty uncommon for AAA games now days to not move around 30% of their units digitally. Digital has skyrocketed over the last 3 years

 

[-hadouken]

If anything GAF regularly underestimates digital splits.

Even if digital uptake is considerably higher than average, overall sales are flat (or down) when compared against the overall growth of the PS4/X1 install base. Spin it however you want - it's down in the UK. Will be interesting to see what America makes of it.

 

[Obliterator]

Even if digital uptake is considerably higher than average, overall sales are flat (or down) when compared against the overall growth of the PS4/X1 install base. Spin it however you want - it's down in the UK. Will be interesting to see what America makes of it.

I'm not spinning anything. My first posts in this thread mentioned the game even with higher digital splits is likely down compared to the first.

I'm trying to make the conversation better

 

[-hadouken]

I'm not spinning anything. My first posts in this thread mentioned the game even with higher digital splits is likely down compared to the first.

I'm trying to make the conversation better

Fair point. I misinterpreted your post as another "digital explains the gap" argument.

 

[MrCookiepants]

Wow, that's a disappointing result. But I guess the first Destiny was more anticipated. The game is great and should sell gangbusters in the holidays.

 

[Ivory Samoan]

Not by that big a margin they're not

At least half of the people I play with got the digital deluxe edition...so I think you may be mistaken.

Digital is bigger by far than retail now, even in console space IMO.

 

[Obliterator]

At least half of the people I play with got the digital deluxe edition...so I think you may be mistaken.

Digital is bigger by far than retail now, even in console space IMO.

Not quite yet. I suspect D2 is on the very high end of things between 40 and 50% but that's the outlier. Physical still moves more units than digital on consoles. But the gap has certainly shrunk over the last few years

 

[2blackcats]

Wow, that's a disappointing result. But I guess the first Destiny was more anticipated. The game is great and should sell gangbusters in the holidays.

There's a lot of other shit to play now too.

 

[Ozzy Onya A2Z]

I'm sort of amazed at the attach rate between PS4 vs XBO. Given the volume of PS4 sales you'd think D2 would sell by a margin of 3 to 1, it's more like 4 to 3 sales. Lower retail sales vs digital is just going to worsen the more time goes on though.

 

[Nevasleep]

Weird that digital is doing so well in the UK. £39 retail (simplygames) vs £54 digital.
People must really be thirsty for that convenience.

 

[-hadouken]

I'm sort of amazed at the attach rate between PS4 vs XBO. Given the volume of PS4 sales you'd think D2 would sell by a margin of 3 to 1.

MS are unofficially bundling Destiny 2 with discounted X1S consoles here in Oz. Wonder if they're doing the same in the UK. I just picked up a second one (for the bedroom) with D2 for $240. After dumping Destiny, that's a nice bit of kit for $200 aud.

 

[joe_zazen]

Weird that digital is doing so well in the UK. £39 retail (simplygames) vs £54 digital.
People must really be thirsty for that convenience.

In fairness we have no digital numbers except high 20s for d1. However, I doubt that much has changed in 36 months. -58% is a huge decline. Anyone one know off hand what Andromeda's decline was?

What I wanted from d1 was a grand universe with an epic 10 year journey and what they delivered was just another video game with sub-par video game story, mediocre level design, and unfun bosses. The game was a dud.

So buying D2 was never something I seriously considered. And given these numbers, I might not be alone.

 

[funroll-loops]

Some people apparently forget the massive market advantage Destiny 1 had going for it. Off the top of my head:

- It was a new IP from a much-loved studio.
- It spanned two console generations, and launched months into the start of a new one.
- It had no real competition at the time of its launch. The thirst for a fresh next-gen shooter was through the roof.
- It had an absolutely huge marketing campaign.

Meanwhile, Destiny 2 lacked all of the above. So I don't see why this should be surprising to anyone. D1 simply had a bigger head start, even if its launch was polarizing and messy.

Yeah I didn't even own a console and I had it in my mind that Destiny was some sort of amazing Halo-like MMO with laser guns and magic swords from all the ads and such surrounding the release of the first one. It wasn't until I got a key with a new GPU a few weeks ago and tried the beta that I figured out it was actually a shooter with some sort of random loot mechanic.

Makes me wonder how many console owners who only had a casual interest in shooters bought the first one with the same idea and weren't as interested in the second

 

[Yearsoflurking]

Me and my friends all got destiny 1 , no one bought Destiny 2. Just offering my anecdotal as well

 

[gundamkyoukai]

For Honor

Did that not also have in the PC version and was overall ?
I sure the DD rate will be high but if we talking about UK only i am not sure it will go that high .

 

[FacelessSamurai]

In fairness we have no digital numbers except high 20s for d1. However, I doubt that much has changed in 36 months. -58% is a huge decline. Anyone one know off hand what Andromeda's decline was?

What I wanted from d1 was a grand universe with an epic 10 year journey and what they delivered was just another video game with sub-par video game story, mediocre level design, and unfun bosses. The game was a dud.

So buying D2 was never something I seriously considered. And given these numbers, I might not be alone.

While I agree on story, saying level design was mediocre and bosses were unfun, while your opinion, is the complete opposite of what I, and everyone I know who plays, thiks of this game. Gun play is also probably the best in the business, and that alone is enough to keep the game enjoyable.

And since everyone likes to post anectodal evidence, I'll add that everyone on my friends list, even people who didn't play Destiny 1, are playing Destiny 2. And non console owners at my work are all planning on getting the PC version to play as a group.

 

[Obliterator]

I mean the main indicator this launch isn't what they wanted is zero PR from Activision.

I would think if it was considered a huge win internally we would have at the very least gotten some sort of shipment / revenue number

Though it is possible they are waiting for a full week on the market before putting anything out there

 

[VanCityGamer]

I'm sort of amazed at the attach rate between PS4 vs XBO. Given the volume of PS4 sales you'd think D2 would sell by a margin of 3 to 1, it's more like 4 to 3 sales. Lower retail sales vs digital is just going to worsen the more time goes on though.

It surprises me how many people don't know the global sales breakdown. In the U.S. and UK, the gap between PS4 and Xbox One isn't even very big.

 

[Interficium]

I mean the main indicator this launch isn't what they wanted is zero PR from Activision.

ATVI is not going to say anything until they have the entirety of first week sales.

 

[Compsiox]

I'm going to bite on PC but I'm going into it not hyped at all.

 

[Ozzy Onya A2Z]

MS are unofficially bundling Destiny 2 with discounted X1S consoles here in Oz. Wonder if they're doing the same in the UK. I just picked up a second one (for the bedroom) with D2 for $240. After dumping Destiny, that's a nice bit of kit for $200 aud.

Yeah saw that the other day, shit hot bundle. I'm tempted to trade in my OG XBO and get that deal for my son, while I keep the X1X on preorder for myself Gotta love a good bundle.

It surprises me how many people don't know the global sales breakdown. In the U.S. and UK, the gap between PS4 and Xbox One isn't even very big.

I wan't aware of that TBH.

 

[Boke1879]

This game will probably have better engagement compared to the first game though.

 

[OVDRobo]

Anecdotal, but even as a stalwart physical purchaser I picked this game up digitally despite the ridiculous price.

I also regret having purchased it, but that's neither here nor there.

 

[stryke]

At least half of the people I play with got the digital deluxe edition...so I think you may be mistaken.

Digital is bigger by far than retail now, even in console space IMO.

Adding IMO to a statement doesn't make it more valid without the numbers to back it up.

 

[Freeman76]

It surprises me how many people don't know the global sales breakdown. In the U.S. and UK, the gap between PS4 and Xbox One isn't even very big.

Erm, yes it is.

 

[N1tr0sOx1d3]

Im probibly going to get roasted for this but I won't buy D2 because I never got to participate in a single raid due to no matchmaking. I bought the complete bundle a year ago and never seen a lot of the content.

Their decision to leave the game and browse forums for someone to play with was insane.

All my friends are married witg children so its difficult to lock them down for a couple of hours straight to do a raid.

There will be defenders of this, but lack of matchmaking ruined D1 for me. So no D2 buy from me even though matchmaking has been introduced.

 

[Rymuth]

Only one man can save Destiny 2.

Interesting enough, I kept thinking how I miss Dinklebot when playing D2.

 

[GlamFM]

Im probibly going to get roasted for this but I won't buy D2 because I never got to participate in a single raid due to no matchmaking. I bought the complete bundle a year ago and never seen a lot of the content.

Their decision to leave the game and browse forums for someone to play with was insane.

All my friends are married witg children so its difficult to lock them down for a couple of hours straight to do a raid.

There will be defenders of this, but lack of matchmaking ruined D1 for me. So no D2 buy from me even though matchmaking has been introduced.

This post makes no sense at all.

 

[watdaeff4]

This post makes no sense at all.

Not my post but how so? I've heard this complaint more than once about Destiny

 

[Moza]

Not my post but how so? I've heard this complaint more than once about Destiny

I'm assuming because they've implemented the feature he's requesting so not buying the sequel that introduces a feature you felt was lacking in the original is a little strange.

 

[Ivory Samoan]

I mean the main indicator this launch isn't what they wanted is zero PR from Activision.

I would think if it was considered a huge win internally we would have at the very least gotten some sort of shipment / revenue number

Though it is possible they are waiting for a full week on the market before putting anything out there

Not sure if you're referring to marketing or just straight PR statements - D2's been blitzing the marketing and pre-launch PR bigtime here in NZ (so semi-related, as a colony island we are of mother UK haha).

 

[HarryKS]

People probably learnt the lesson that you should wait for all the content to be in the game before buying the game.

Pretty much. Count me amongst those.

What it means though is that Destiny is not a frontloaded title.

 

[ocean]

People probably learnt the lesson that you should wait for all the content to be in the game before buying the game.

That’s a terrible lesson. This game is by far at its most enjoyable immediately after a content drop. Being there day 1 means you get to be there while secrets are discovered, it means having a ton of people at the same stage you are in for co-op, it means playing through all the content while it is still relevant.

People who buy this next year will save some money, sure. But they’ll miss the opportunity to play the raid tomorrow when it first opens up and figure it out without guides and stuff. They’ll miss out on this weekend’s big Trials reveal - zero hype or surprise at what the rewards / social space looks like. They’ll miss out on the expectation for some time gates quests still in progress (we currently have a Power Weapon bounty that just lists “wait for the world eater to arrive” for example). They’ll miss the hype surrounding the as-yet unexplained “Faction Rally” scheduled for the end of the month, and the first Iron Banner next month.

I mean sure you could buy D1 today for like US$20 but it’s not worth even a penny when these social experiences are left out of the value proposition. Over the course of D1, I spent US$170 ($100 for base game + first 2 expansions, $40 for The Taken King, $30 for Rise of Iron). It was *absolutely worth it* and, I dare say, a far better deal than paying US$5 for all of that today without people to play it with.

 

[operon]

Weird that digital is doing so well in the UK. £39 retail (simplygames) vs £54 digital.
People must really be thirsty for that convenience.

So many people like you are forgetting game sharing particularly on the xbox. So 39 for 1 disc or 54 pounds for 2 digital copies of the game makes digital much cheaper

 

[Ivory Samoan]

Adding IMO to a statement doesn't make it more valid without the numbers to back it up.

Hence why I put IMO: as I don't have the actual numbers to back it up lol.

Going off our gaming community here in NZ (Gameplanet ANZ) I would say at least half of all purchases here are digital, and we have a lot of retail outlets available for all forms of gaming: maybe not as many as the UK/US though, so digital could be slightly more appealing as a sales medium here.

 

[Melchiah]

Some people apparently forget the massive market advantage Destiny 1 had going for it. Off the top of my head:

- It was a new IP from a much-loved studio.
- It spanned two console generations, and launched months into the start of a new one.
- It had no real competition at the time of its launch. The thirst for a fresh next-gen shooter was through the roof.
- It had an absolutely huge marketing campaign.

Meanwhile, Destiny 2 lacked all of the above. So I don't see why this should be surprising to anyone. D1 simply had a bigger head start, even if its launch was polarizing and messy.

Plus, it was the first time PlayStation owners had the chance to play a Bungie game, and at the time its visuals were impressive. I can't really say the same about D2 beta after playing games that were much more impressive visually.


EDIT:

Im probibly going to get roasted for this but I won't buy D2 because I never got to participate in a single raid due to no matchmaking. I bought the complete bundle a year ago and never seen a lot of the content.

Their decision to leave the game and browse forums for someone to play with was insane.

All my friends are married witg children so its difficult to lock them down for a couple of hours straight to do a raid.

There will be defenders of this, but lack of matchmaking ruined D1 for me. So no D2 buy from me even though matchmaking has been introduced.

The bolded was an issue for our group as well. Trying find a suitable time for six adults wasn't an easy task, and it was only made worse by the weekly reset that erased all progress. It wouldn't have been so bad, if we could have continued the raid next week. That's why I never managed to finish the last raid.

 

[hanspampel]

For you financial modeling forecasting wizards, here is a helpful data point.

Activision has said on earnings conference calls Destiny 1 digital as a percent of total sales was "high-20s%"

Source -> https://twitter.com/firstadopter/status/697923870028906497

Yes. That was about Destiny: The taken King or the LTD share.

Digital is growing over time and especially backlog sales are mostly digital now. At the launch of Destiny 1 the share was not that high.



As i said, Ubisoft gave numbers for the Watchdogs launch a few months earlier. And the only time even a platform split.
It was roughly 10% for next gen. Ps4 closer to 10% and Xb1 closer to 11%. Last gen was below 10%.
One could argue Destiny was higer because of being a online game and stronger in the US and i agree om that. But i doubt it was above 15% overall.