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UK: Destiny 2 is year's biggest retail launch, but retail down 58% from Destiny 1

Dude, the set dressing might not be much like Borderlands, but it's a class based, coop loot shooter. Let's not pretend that there's much difference made by the quest structure.
They are nothing alike. Borderlands doesn't have PvP, raids. They play and are nothing alike. By your logic mass effect or any game with looy it is the same.
 
Only one man can save Destiny 2.

dinklage-in-talks-for-avengers-infinity-war.jpg
 

-hadouken

Member
I would like to see the digital sales numbers. A lot of the veterans went digital.
Sure, committed veterans will have higher digital uptake. Problem is vets are a minority when it comes to the overall success of a game. The broader market are voting with their wallets - after experiencing Destiny 1, they're ambivalent about the sequel. "The DLC redeemed it" narrative only works for the people who stuck around.
 

Dysun

Member
I'm sure it will still be huge, but Destiny 2 won't be as big as the original. At launch, D1 was a disappointment, and I'm sure that spurned a ton of early adopters who never gave the original a second look.
 

Audioserf

Member
They are nothing alike. Borderlands doesn't have PvP, raids. They play and are nothing alike. By your logic mass effect or any game with looy it is the same.

Loot isn't why you play Mass Effect, whereas in Borderlands, Destiny, Diablo etc, loot is the central motivating factor. You grind the same strikes, hit the same quests, run the same dungeons again and again because you're looking for a piece of equipment that'll really serve no purpose other than to allow the designers to perpetuate the loop you just went through to acquire said equipment.

How and in what configuration do you get loot in Borderlands and Destiny?...Class based first person shooting in groups.

...do you really need me to point the rest of it out like a grade school teacher?

But really this is all academic - Destiny is just not that fun for the same reason that Diablo and Borderlands aren't fun; artificial reward loops that incentivise repetition are borderline morally repugnant to me because they rely on the same shitty psychological tricks that keep people hitting the plunger on the slot machine.

So I hate the quest structure, and the shooting is basically fine but fine isn't enough to save the rest of the shit show.
 
Sure, committed veterans will have higher digital uptake. Problem is vets are a minority when it comes to the overall success of a game. The broader market are voting with their wallets - after experiencing Destiny 1, they're ambivalent about the sequel. "The DLC redeemed it" narrative only works for the people who stuck around.

This is me and my friends exactly. Anecdotal evidence sure but my group of about 15 haven't picked up Destiny 2 after being super hyped then let down by Destiny 1. I was actually very surprised to see that 1.2 M concurrent user thread last week.
 
58% drop is staggeringly big.
Sometimes you don't get a second chance to make a first impression. A lot of people left vanilla Destiny salty as fuck. Assume those people will be late adopters of the game if they ever come on board this time around.

Sure, committed veterans will have higher digital uptake. Problem is vets are a minority when it comes to the overall success of a game. The broader market are voting with their wallets - after experiencing Destiny 1, they're ambivalent about the sequel. "The DLC redeemed it" narrative only works for the people who stuck around.
This man understands.
 

Faynwulf

Member
I was going to buy it retail on PC but then I saw that it's only a code and no DVDs.
Looks like I have to download this game for a long time. I just hope it's not much bigger than 30gb.
 

Par Score

Member
Reading this thread you'd think digital sales were invented between the release of Destiny 1 and 2.

Comparing Destiny 2 Retail + BS Digital numbers vs Destiny 1 Retail only is far more asinine than comparing straight retail to retail and pretending digital doesn't exist.

It's only been 3 years. The Xbox One was originally billed as an Always Online console.

If you're going to compare Destiny 2 sales to Destiny 1 using BS digital numbers, you have to add at least half as much to Destiny 1 as you do to Destiny 2 to be in any way reasonable.
 
Pretty interesting it's down so much compared to the original (however you slice the digital distribution).

But, this doesn't necessarily mean much for Destiny 2 as a whole. If these were US numbers, I would pay more attention!
 
Hope ya'll are ready for some calculations:

Digital Sales @25%
Sales = 175,000 * 1.25 = 218750
New Percentage Change = ((218750 - 417,000) / 417,000) * 100 = -47%

Digital Sales @50%
Sales = 175,000 * 1.5 = 262500
New Percentage Change = ((262,500 - 417,000) / 417,000) * 100 = -37%

Digital Sales @75%
Sales = 175,000 * 1.75 = 306250
New Percentage Change = ((306250 - 417,000) / 417,000) * 100 = -27%

Digital sales @50% excluding PS3 and 360 sales from D1
Sales = 175,000 * 1.5 = 262500
New Percentage Change = ((262,500 - 342,000) / 342,000) * 100 = -23%

So, after that thorough scientific analysis, the performance is still not great. Despite it being an anomaly due to the nature of what it is, I can't see Destiny 2's digital sales being more than 50% of its physical sales, especially here in the UK. As for the PS3 and 360 versions, I'd wager most of those people have moved on to PS4 or X1 so excluding them entirely is quite a large leap in logic.

Still doing quite well, especially with the PC version coming up which should bridge that gap a little. I wouldn't call it doom for the franchise, nor would I call it an amazing performance considering its peers in the "sequel to massive shooter" category (MW2, Halo 2, etc).

EDIT: Added the 75% category just to flesh things out a bit more. Bit redundant that each 25% increase in digital sales directly translates to a 10% increase in the percentage change.

EDIT 2: I just realised that D1 is still only physical sales. Without that data at hand it's hard to really get any concrete assumptions about this; but if I were to 'guesstimate' I'd put the 'actual' actual percentage decrease at near 50%.

your calculation is wrong!
25% digital = 233.33k (down 44%)
35% digital = 269.23k (down 35,5%
45% digital = 313.18k (down 24.9%)
55% digital = 388.89k (down 6,7%)
65% digital = 500k (up 19.9%)

all numbers are against Destiny 1 Physical only assuming a 0% percent digital share.
with a 15% digital ratio for the first game, Destiny 2 would've been basically flat at a 65% digital ratio (2% or just 10k units up)
 

Plum

Member
your calculation is wrong!
25% digital = 233.33k (down 64%)
35% digital = 269.23k (down 35,5%
45% digital = 313.18k (down 24.9%)
55% digital = 388.89k (down 6,7%)

all numbers are against Destiny 1 Physical only assuming a 0% percent digital share.
with a 15% digital ratio for the first game, Destiny 2 would've been basically flat at a 65% digital ratio (2% or just 10k units)

Huh? How is an increase in sales leading an increase in the negative difference between D1 and D2's sales? Come on, man, if you're gonna say my calculations are wrong you gotta show your own. I'm highly confused.
 

Jblanks

Member
Sometimes you don't get a second chance to make a first impression. A lot of people left vanilla Destiny salty as fuck. Assume those people will be late adopters of the game if they ever come on board this time around.

This man understands.
Well to a degree, it's not counting digital and lots of people are waiting for the PC version.
 
Huh? How is an increase in sales leading an increase in the negative difference between D1 and D2's sales? Come on, man, if you're gonna say my calculations are wrong you gotta show your own. I'm highly confused.

at a 25% digital share that 175k retail units would be 75% of total
at a 55% digital share that 175k retail units would be 45% of total
etc...

percentage calculation 1*1
 

Plum

Member
at a 25% digital share that 175k retail units would be 75% of total
at a 55% digital share that 175k retail units would be 45% of total
etc...

percentage calculation 1*1

I was going on a flat increase in sales based on a percentage of physical. So when I say "50% Digital" I just meant 50% of 175k instead of 50% of the total sales.

I'd still like to see your calculations as I honestly have no clue where you got some of your numbers, especially that percentage decrease for 25% digital.
 

dealer-

Member
Well to a degree, it's not counting digital and lots of people are waiting for the PC version.

Destiny's figure doesn't include digital either. I remember quite a few on my friends list waiting until midnight at launch to play the digital release. It wasn't a foreign concept in 2014.
 

Shin

Banned
Do all these maths include the PS4 Pro D2 bundle or isn't that tracked?
I'm buying that bundle next week though I don't really want the game, but point being that the bundle might have sold well.
 
I was going on a flat increase in sales based on a percentage of physical. So when I say "50% Digital" I just meant 50% of 175k added onto that initial number. I'd still like to see your calculations as I honestly have no clue where you got some of your numbers, especially that percentage decrease for 25% digital.
that percentage decrease for 25% digital was a typing error its 44% not 64%
and already corrected

when you just add a flat 25% digital increase to 175k physical as your 100% base, you get a digital share of 19.7%. that is not 25%
and your "75% digital" is just 42.8% in reality


Do all these maths include the PS4 Pro D2 bundle or isn't that tracked?
I'm buying that bundle next week though I don't really want the game, but point being that the bundle might have sold well.
Ps4 Pro and Ps4 Slim Destiny Bundles are included in the UK
That is basically the Reason, why all those Xbox One games shoot up the charts. They were bundled
 

Plum

Member
that percentage decrease for 25% digital was a typing error its 44% not 64%
and already corrected


when you just add a flat 25% digital increase to 175k physical as your 100% base, you get a digital share of 19.7%. that is not 25%
and your "75% digital" is just 42.8% in reality

After re-reading my own post it's pretty clear I wasn't talking about the share of the total sales:

"I can't see Destiny 2's digital sales being more than 50% of its physical sales"

They're not wrong at all in that context. The method of analysis may be a bit flimsy, but the calculations themselves are fine.
 
After re-reading my own post it's pretty clear I wasn't talking about the share of the total sales:

"I can't see Destiny 2's digital sales being more than 50% of its physical sales"

They're not wrong at all in that context.
if you're not talking about the share of the total sales, your post does not make sense
it it also confusing as hell
and it's still wrong as that is not how percentage calculation is done.

you said exactly this:
Digital Sales @XX%
digital sales @25% of a total of 125% is your math saying
does that make sense for you?
 

Welfare

Member
After re-reading my own post it's pretty clear I wasn't talking about the share of the total sales:

"I can't see Destiny 2's digital sales being more than 50% of its physical sales"

They're not wrong at all in that context. The method of analysis may be a bit flimsy, but the calculations themselves are fine.
50% of 175K is 87.5K.

87,500 + 175,000 = 262,500

87,500 / 262,500 = 33.333...%

Destiny 2 is going to have a digital share larger than 33%. Digital sales probably exceed 100K.
 

Kaji AF16

Member
I didn´t read through all the pages, but... are those numbers reflecting a higher Xbox One attach rate when considering the install bases of each console in the UK?

Using my Destiny 2-playing friends as a sample, I think I can´t find a single person who bought it physical. That said, most of them had also bought Destiny 1 in digital form because of the "buy it on Xbox 360, get it also on Xbox One" opportunity.
 
Spoiler: there are actual good games to play now, so we don't have to slum it with a dressed up skinner box like we did in 2014.

Destiny is just not that fun for the same reason that Diablo and Borderlands aren't fun; artificial reward loops that incentivise repetition are borderline morally repugnant to me because they rely on the same shitty psychological tricks that keep people hitting the plunger on the slot machine.

Mind speaking up? Getting a little hard to hear you from all the way up on that pedestal of yours.
 

-hadouken

Member
Even if digital is trending well above average, it's worth remembering that Destiny dropped within year one of the PS4/X1 lifecycle. Now that the install base has matured, we should be seeing significant growth in physical sales of D2 regardless of digital uptake. Whether this trend repeats in other markets is the question going forwards.
 

Togeo

Member
Learned my lesson with Destiny 1. Went digital, didn't want to keep swapping discs. Imagine I'm not the only one.
 

-hadouken

Member
Learned my lesson with Destiny 1. Went digital, didn't want to keep swapping discs. Imagine I'm not the only one.
I too learned my lesson from Destiny 1 - don't get locked into digital games that you're not sure of. Digital Guardian edition for $120 aud still stands as one of my most regretted purchases.
 
It's amazing lol. It's like digital didn't exist when D1 came out. Oh and "all my friends bought it digital" lol

I don't understand the last part of your post. It's a fact that myself and around 20 guys that I play with bought physical for Destiny 1 in 2014. Every one of us bought digital for Destiny 2. If that big of turnaround happened for myself and 20 friends, a 100% turnaround, I'm guessing there is a much larger digital base this time around.
 
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