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[Astray]

Second - my understanding about Xbox's interest in HW going forward paint a very different picture from what folks imagine, based on convos i've had with folks in MS and in Xbox itself. Yes, a new machine is coming, but its not gonna be this HW approach intended to take on Sony or Nintendo. Enthusiast-focused, expensive, and with the only selling power being the GP sub itself, while software releases on all major platforms. Thats the future of Xbox.

This feels to me like a soft wind-down of their platform.

Make the console expensive with no exclusives so no one sane would buy it, keep everything day 1 on your sub service so no one buys games and then pesters you about preservation once you close the servers in half a decade or so..

This way you have a gentle exit that won't ruffle any investor feathers because now you have Mobile, COD and a ton of other things hopefully making more money on PC/PS/Nintendo platforms.

 

[Warablo]

That would mean my Series X was just my GTA Online machine

 

[MikeM]

Shorter gens are fine. I mean. For the most part they be cross gen. From buying pro in between. Really not making that much a difference.

I would love 5 year generations.

i think majority of the devs is still going to prioritize the ps5 console instead of the next gen X.

this is a risky move by Microsoft imo.

Perhaps but its easier to scale games up then down. Problem is, the Series S will still exist and devs will need to dev for that too if they go cross-gen.

 

[midnightAI]

It seems like desperation to me but the only way I could see it make a little sense is if they can get that console out for GTA6 and clearly be the best place to play it

Even that is a stretch imo

Well what we do know is is that GTA6 lead platform is PlayStation, so bit of a misstep if that is true.

 

[jroc74]

So now maybe some folks will be excited for new hardware...

A next gen console in 2025, 2026 is the same mistake as thinking the XSX was a mid gen refresh.

Maybe 2026 is fine, but 2025?

MS seems to be throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks.

 

[Crayon]

First - I think folks need to drop what they normally view as a 'next-gen' anything. What we used to call next-gen does not apply to that term anymore. Gone are the days of the PS2 or 360 launches, with loads of software that couldn't have been done on the machines that came before it.

Second - my understanding about Xbox's interest in HW going forward paint a very different picture from what folks imagine, based on convos i've had with folks in MS and in Xbox itself. Yes, a new machine is coming, but its not gonna be this HW approach intended to take on Sony or Nintendo. Enthusiast-focused, expensive, and with the only selling power being the GP sub itself, while software releases on all major platforms. Thats the future of Xbox.

This would make an early launch make sense. Pushing a console way upmarket is a great way to get them away from being a playstation clone. This way they could make a console that was otherwise traditional, just with a high end get-what-you-pay-for proposition. A tangible differentiator. I think it would be welcomed by the remaining hardcore fanbase. Then they could get on running as a large publisher and have another chance at the successful consumer facing brand they want.

And good to see you again, Sneakers.

 

[XXL]

 

[Unknown?]

We're already there lads.

"wait for next gen™"

Except if they launch too early, I think it will be a massive backfire for them. It will crush consumer confidence that the product they bought will have longevity.

 

[Pelao]

A generation usually lasts 6-7 years. How is this newsworthy?

 

[March Climber]

A generation usually lasts 6-7 years. How is this newsworthy?

Because 2-3 years of this generation's progress was pushed back due to a virus, and secondly because most AAA dev cycles(aside from a few outliers) are now 5+ years. The math is not adding up.

 

[Pelao]

Because 2-3 years of this generation's progress was pushed back due to a virus, and secondly because most AAA dev cycles(aside from a few outliers) are now 5+ years. The math is not adding up.

With each new generation, the development cycle of games gets longer, but the length of the generation remains the same. Call me when a generation surpasses seven years in length, otherwise it's business as usual.

 

[March Climber]

With each new generation, the development cycle of games gets longer, but the length of the generation remains the same. Call me when a generation surpasses seven years in length, otherwise it's business as usual.

Is this one of those moments where Nintendo suddenly doesn't count?

 

[Pelao]

Is this one of those moments where Nintendo suddenly doesn't count?

Right, Nintendo actually had an even shorter generation than seven years with the Wii U. Your point?

 

[March Climber]

Right, Nintendo actually had an even shorter generation than seven years with the Wii U. Your point?

Even though I was describing switch, your post still helps my point. A generation can be whatever the console makers want it to be. So there's no reason to stick to a standard when every other standard is changing around it.

Firstly, I don't even know why Xbox or PS would be in a rush since they sell consoles at a loss for quite a while during a generation.

Secondly, why would Xbox even begin a new generation when they have a ton of unreleased Series X games? An entire library of them that their console owners have been waiting for year after year, just for them to awkwardly come out looking worse than whatever that new generation will bring shortly after.

 

[Pelao]

That helps my point. A generation can be whatever the console makers want it to be. So there's no reason to stick to a standard when every other standard is changing around it.

Right... It helps your point when I told you to tell me when a generation surpasses seven years, as I mentioned in the post to which you replied.
I think you need to improve your reading comprehension, mate.

EDIT: Nice edit, btw

 

[StreetsofBeige]

I always sell off my current system when a new system comes out.

Series Y better have a 4k drive so I can play my 4k movies.

If not, I'll have to bite the bullet and get a 4k player which by then I hope dumb down to $50-100. Right now, they are still steady around $200-300 CDN. The prices dont seem to be crashing down like the DVD and BR player days.

 

[Little Chicken]

So, according to the vividly obese:

1) Xbox doesn't release a Pro Series console.

Xbox is over and the extra 2fps of overhead the PS5 Pro version of GTAVI will bury the Xbox brand once and for all.

2) Xbox has been planning a Pro Series console all along.

Xbox is over and they shouldn't bother competing against the PS5 Pro, which will bury the Xbox brand once and for all.

3) Xbox rejects incremental upgrades and brings next-gen forward, in line with Phil Spencer's comments about the Xbox One X/Pro consoles being prohibitively expensive to manufacture for such a niche market.

Xbox is over and the PS5 Pro has them running scared, because it will bury the Xbox brand once and for all.

 

[balls of snow]

Rather they salvage this gen first.

No shit. A gen likely without gears. And even if the next gen gears is cross gen what is the whole point then of a new generation of xbox supposed to mean.

 

[cinnamonandgravy]

nextbox vs ps5 pro would actually be interesting.

going straight to next gen instead of a pro has its advantages.

 

[Stuart360]

2025 is obviously bullshit (i doubt 2026 either, but i do think they will try to get out a year before Playstation) but taking it as truth hypothetically, launch in 2025, and launch a 'Pro' model in 2028 when PS6 releases (assumingly).

All the games they have in development (surely with all the studios they have) are pushed to be launch games for the next gen Xbox in 2025.

Sounds crazy but it would mix up shit for sure.

 

[Crayon]

So, according to the vividly obese:

1) Xbox doesn't release a Pro Series console.

Xbox is over and the extra 2fps of overhead the PS5 Pro version of GTAVI will bury the Xbox brand once and for all.

2) Xbox has been planning a Pro Series console all along.

Xbox is over and they shouldn't bother competing against the PS5 Pro, which will bury the Xbox brand once and for all.

3) Xbox rejects incremental upgrades and brings next-gen forward, in line with Phil Spencer's comments about the Xbox One X/Pro consoles being prohibitively expensive to manufacture for such a niche market.

Xbox is over and the PS5 Pro has them running scared, because it will bury the Xbox brand once and for all.

Yes to all.

 

[dotnotbot]

It kinda makes sense for xbox to do the nintendo thing and zag away from the competetion.
Stop directly competing with PS by not releasing at the same time.

But releasing too soon is gonna kill any remaining consumer loyalty imo.
I can't imagine any xbox series owner is gonna be happy with the news.

But maybe it's their only course of action.

Nintendo does their own thing with hw and sw, both equally important, Xbox is still catering for pretty much the same audience as PS. I don't understand how they see this as a viable move, PS5 is going to be significantly cheaper by then and still playing all new games.

 

[ZehDon]

XSX launched in 2020, so launching next-gen in 2026 is more inline with prior generations (PS2 => PS3 was six years). Microsoft unifying it's development efforts, with things like DX12U, certainly allows them to offer developers a good degree of hardware abstraction for a small performance cost. With that said, I suppose it comes down to end user value - can Microsoft offer a demonstrable generational leap at an affordable price in 2026? They might get the hardware there - maybe? - but even then I'm not sure it'll be properly utilised. The XSX's on-paper advantage largely hasn't materialised because, hey, why would anyone bother with the finesse required to feed those CUs when PS5 owns the market and the XSX can mostly brute force close-enough-parity? I can't imagine Microsoft would see their next-gen console being put to full use if they're two years ahead of the entrenched market leader who's primed to leap-frog them technologically in a year or two. This isn't the PS360 days; dev's really might just offer up 4K60 for the "next-gen" version and call it a day. From an end-user perspective, two years of that followed by four years of having the inferior versions of real next-gen games might not be worth the buy in. Microsoft would really need to make it easy for developers to leverage their next-gen hardware.

 

[bitbydeath]

First - I think folks need to drop what they normally view as a 'next-gen' anything. What we used to call next-gen does not apply to that term anymore. Gone are the days of the PS2 or 360 launches, with loads of software that couldn't have been done on the machines that came before it.

Second - my understanding about Xbox's interest in HW going forward paint a very different picture from what folks imagine, based on convos i've had with folks in MS and in Xbox itself. Yes, a new machine is coming, but its not gonna be this HW approach intended to take on Sony or Nintendo. Enthusiast-focused, expensive, and with the only selling power being the GP sub itself, while software releases on all major platforms. Thats the future of Xbox.

Sounds like the sub-$99 streaming box I posted earlier.

Leaked documents detail next-gen Xbox targeting 2028, new hybrid cloud gaming plans

Bold plans emerge in FTC documents

www.windowscentral.com

 

[tusharngf]

2026 makes sense for microsoft. They can gain momentum by putting some good quality launch games and a promise of 4k60 fps. But they havent put quality games yet for current gen. Games sells consoles at launch. I remember people playing most wanted 2005 on x360 launch day. They need at least 3-4 big games on launch year. Hardware side they can do 2-3nm SOC.

 

[Baki]

I can see it. Not that different from a pro console and they have over 30 studios, so they don’t have to worry about 3rd party support.

 

[reinking]

Second - my understanding about Xbox's interest in HW going forward paint a very different picture from what folks imagine, based on convos i've had with folks in MS and in Xbox itself. Yes, a new machine is coming, but its not gonna be this HW approach intended to take on Sony or Nintendo. Enthusiast-focused, expensive, and with the only selling power being the GP sub itself, while software releases on all major platforms. Thats the future of Xbox.

So, for the most part, they are throwing in the towel on the console market and limiting it too enthusiest? I don't know what to think about that. The attraction is Game Pass but without a healthy console market? Unless they really can find a way to get Game Pass on other consoles that is not only going to kill their console market but limit the Game Pass market too (which still needs console support for growth). Am I misunderstanding something?

 

[twilo99]

XSX launched in 2020, so launching next-gen in 2026 is more inline with prior generations (PS2 => PS3 was six years). Microsoft unifying it's development efforts, with things like DX12U, certainly allows them to offer developers a good degree of hardware abstraction for a small performance cost. With that said, I suppose it comes down to end user value - can Microsoft offer a demonstrable generational leap at an affordable price in 2026? They might get the hardware there - maybe? - but even then I'm not sure it'll be properly utilised. The XSX's on-paper advantage largely hasn't materialised because, hey, why would anyone bother with the finesse required to feed those CUs when PS5 owns the market and the XSX can mostly brute force close-enough-parity? I can't imagine Microsoft would see their next-gen console being put to full use if they're two years ahead of the entrenched market leader who's primed to leap-frog them technologically in a year or two. This isn't the PS360 days; dev's really might just offer up 4K60 for the "next-gen" version and call it a day. From an end-user perspective, two years of that followed by four years of having the inferior versions of real next-gen games might not be worth the buy in. Microsoft would really need to make it easy for developers to leverage their next-gen hardware.

Excellent post.

I suppose one avenue would be for them to have enough in house developers who could potentially exploit DX12, the available hardware, and pump out enough titles, but that’s a tall order.

There is absolutely no reason for 3rd party devs to spent extra time and money on the much smaller install base.

 

[twilo99]

First - I think folks need to drop what they normally view as a 'next-gen' anything. What we used to call next-gen does not apply to that term anymore. Gone are the days of the PS2 or 360 launches, with loads of software that couldn't have been done on the machines that came before it.

Second - my understanding about Xbox's interest in HW going forward paint a very different picture from what folks imagine, based on convos i've had with folks in MS and in Xbox itself. Yes, a new machine is coming, but its not gonna be this HW approach intended to take on Sony or Nintendo. Enthusiast-focused, expensive, and with the only selling power being the GP sub itself, while software releases on all major platforms. Thats the future of Xbox.

Hmm I could see that but I really hope they can keep something like the series s around.. having something very high end and super low end with nothing in the middle would be a wild strategy tho

 

[March Climber]

Right... It helps your point when I told you to tell me when a generation surpasses seven years, as I mentioned in the post to which you replied.
I think you need to improve your reading comprehension, mate.

EDIT: Nice edit, btw

This was my point btw:

A generation can be whatever the console makers want it to be. So there's no reason to stick to a standard when every other standard is changing around it.

Also, I edited my post because I accidentally thumbed over the 'post reply' button while editing it beforehand. It happens from time to time even though I try to avoid it. I make mistakes

 

[SegaSnatcher]

Good, let them kill off Series S support for good, the sooner the better. Series X should have been their only console this generation, just with a disc and digital SKUs.

 

[hyperbertha]

Except if they launch too early, I think it will be a massive backfire for them. It will crush consumer confidence that the product they bought will have longevity.

5-6 years is pretty long for a console. Don't think they'll lose much if 8 year advocates tune out.

 

[hyperbertha]

It started 3 years ago. Do you really want a new Xbox so soon? Or a new gen even? Current gen has barely scratched the surface of what's possible.

Really? I highly doubt we'll see much better looking games than pandora. Remember last gen was already maxed out in 2014 with ac unity. It's not the PS2 gen anymore.

 

[Cert.in.Death]

Xbox social media is as insufferable as they come

 

[Dorfdad]

Holiday 2026

 

[adamsapple]

Xbox social media is as insufferable as they come

"Know leaker Kepler" is not part of Xbox social media.

 

[odhiex]

So, it's just a prediction? Not an actual info.

 

[Cert.in.Death]

"Know leaker Kepler" is not part of Xbox social media.

Talking about Xbox on social media = Xbox social media

 

[Heisenberg007]

If true, I wonder how that will go with folks who just bought an Xbox Series X|S, hoping for a normal generation of 7+ years.

 

[Mooreberg]

If this were to be a "hard break" into a new console cycle (a.k.a. not replacing XSS / XSX / PC with XSX / New Xbox / PC), 2025 or 2026 would annihilate any goodwill they have built up in recent months. It isn't 2005 anymore, people expect longer product life cycles out of electronics, especially with what non-promotional pricing has been on modern consoles.

I'm not saying the digital only refresh is a better idea, in fact, I find it kinda pointless. But moving on from XSX as the target footprint two years from now would send people looking elsewhere. Especially if the pricing was not better at launch than this go around. Just... dumb.

 

[Baki]

Except if they launch too early, I think it will be a massive backfire for them. It will crush consumer confidence that the product they bought will have longevity.

It won’t. Cross gen covers that. This is a smart play by MS.

 

[March Climber]

It won’t. Cross gen covers that. This is a smart play by MS.

The people here who want actual leaps in graphical fidelity on console will surely love even more cross-gen titles lol.

 

[Baki]

The people here who want actual leaps in graphical fidelity on console will surely love even more cross-gen titles lol.

The plan here is to go away from “generations” and make Xbox hardware enthusiast focused and the best place to play GP. Mass market can play Xbox games and GP through the cloud and Xbox can pick up full game sales on PS and Nintendo and use that window to advertise the immense value of GP.

 

[Mr Reasonable]

The people here who want actual leaps in graphical fidelity on console will surely love even more cross-gen titles lol.

Cross Gen is the best period, imo.

What happens in cross gen: 4k60.

What happens as soon as cross Gen ends: upscaling and 30fps.

 

[Ronin_7]

They should have done a 2024 refresh. 2026 is too soon. It will take until 2028 for 2nm to be fully viable and sufficient enhancements to RTRT to make a true leap that is generation-worthy. Launching in 2026 would mean they would be running on 3nm vs 4nm PS5 Pro. They’ll get the same games running at higher FPS, while allowing Sony to try a true paradigm shift in rendering in 2028.

2026 the leap will be terrible from X, this is Phil pressing the Panic button lol

They will be crushed by Ps5 & Switch 2 still.

 

[March Climber]

Cross Gen is the best period, imo.

What happens in cross gen: 4k60.

What happens as soon as cross Gen ends: upscaling and 30fps.

I agree with this and the backwards compatible bump in framerate, but it's going to be a hard sell for many buyers and a pain in the rear for multiplayer devs.

 

[truth411]

That basically depends on whether a smaller node than the PS5 Pro will be ready for mass production by then. If not, the next Xbox at similar die size won't have (significantly) more transistors than the PS5 Pro.

If it comes out holiday 2026 then 3nm is totally doable.

I think the PS6 will use Tsmc N2P (2nm) in 2028

 

[Snake29]

So he hasn’t any info, but he is just speculating.

 

[Crayon]

Someone at ms has to be asking why phil thought it was a good idea to buy bethesda for 8 billion, then promptly throwing $700,000,000 right out the window by canning the ps version to starfield. Not to mention crippling the reach of the ip. They're also probably asking if he plans to do this with every game and why.

I would hope the answer is not to sell consoles. Bethesda and ABK are investments and being willing to put the games anywhere but playstation is going to damage those investments now that the xbox is not selling. They surely thought this gen was going to go a lot better when they bought beth and abk, so plans may have to change.

Releasing more or most of their games on playstation. Introducing an indisputably superior console for the few who want to pay for it. And doing it soon. This is finally a route I can see working for them. If game pass is going to work, it will have to do it without a high selling console and preferably without fucking up the publishers they just bought.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

They did it with 360 and it ended up going well, I think that would be the better choice for Xbox right now, and for gamers too, release a next gen console, and back it up with new games/ip

This isn't the 360 gen.

If Sony releases a PS5 Pro next year, with all the momentum they've got, all they need to do is announce that PS6 is being worked on and they completely undermine next-gen Xbox.

I'd even argue that a PS5 Pro isn't necessary for that, just a PS6 announcement.

An early next-gen release would be the dumbest thing to do for MS.