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Windows Central: Microsoft exploring bringing back catalog to Nintendo and PlayStation

Del_X

Member
Extremely unlikely considering the information we found in leaked internal Microsoft's documents and Phil Spencer openly confirming that the Xbox business is not going strong.

One doesn't say that about a profitable business that's growing.

This was from their own internal leaked FTC stuff
Screenshot-2023-09-21-at-18-26-17-Xbox-profits-revealed-in-new-FTC-leak-1024x576.png
 

Darsxx82

Member
How many units will XBS sell in 2024 and 2025?

Definitely more than the ridiculous ~2.5 million annual average sales that you claim for XSeries in the next years an for a new XBoxNext in its entire life.

What is your prediction? I remember when a little less than a month ago your prediction for 2023 was 5-6 million XSeries and the figures are at least 8+ million...
The fact that you couldn’t reply without extra bullshit is your problem.

🙃
Fact is it’s going to take a lot to keep Xbox from declining gen over gen. You don’t have to be a “hater” to see that.

I think you have missed where the topic of the discussion was..... Definitely not if there will be a decline gen over gen. I'm sure that if you think about it more carefully you might be able to figure it out... unless you agree that XSeries is going to sell at an average of 2.5 million annually in the coming years and that a more than possible (I would say certain) Nextgeneration Xbox console would only have a sales ceiling of 10-15 millions without any option to be better ...😉 .

PS. We are talking about someone who defends that MS is going to stop making consoles even before 2027. And I don't want to go into what was defended two months ago during the acquisition of ABK and the 180° turn of his arguments...
 

twilo99

Member
The point is that when a product is no longer successful, the options are to either stop the product or change the product.

In my opinion the only reason Microsoft has had so many little side projects, like Xbox, is Apple.

They want to have some sort of consumer hardware, just like Apple, that people love and appreciate.

Surface = Mac
Nokia = iPhone
Band = Apple Watch
Zune = iPod

The rivalry with Apple runs very deep in their corporate culture, so unless they go through some massive shift, that’s not going to change.

Xbox is the only consumer hardware product that’s had some success, and if it can operate Xbox at break even, they will run that thing indefinitely as a side project.

So, Xbox has nothing to do with Sony or Nintendo, they just got unlucky that Microsoft happened to find some success in their segment, and now they have to deal with them, which could also be good for business..
 

HeWhoWalks

Gold Member
Definitely more than the ridiculous ~2.5 million annual average sales that you claim for XSeries in the next years an for a new XBoxNext in its entire life.

What is your prediction? I remember when a little less than a month ago your prediction for 2023 was 5-6 million XSeries and the figures are at least 8+ million...


🙃


I think you have missed where the topic of the discussion was..... Definitely not if there will be a decline gen over gen. I'm sure that if you think about it more carefully you might be able to figure it out... unless you agree that XSeries is going to sell at an average of 2.5 million annually in the coming years and that a more than possible (I would say certain) Nextgeneration Xbox console would only have a sales ceiling of 10-15 millions without any option to be better ...😉 .

PS. We are talking about someone who defends that MS is going to stop making consoles even before 2027. And I don't want to go into what was defended two months ago during the acquisition of ABK and the 180° turn of his arguments...
I missed nothing. I supported the idea of a declination - something you continue to struggle with, evident by your continued refusal to provide numbers to Mibu. 🙃
 
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In my opinion the only reason Microsoft has had so many little side projects, like Xbox, is Apple.

They want to have some sort of consumer hardware, just like Apple, that people love and appreciate.

Surface = Mac
Nokia = iPhone
Band = Apple Watch
Zune = iPod

The rivalry with Apple runs very deep in their corporate culture, so unless they go through some massive shift, that’s not going to change.

Xbox is the only consumer hardware product that’s had some success, and if it can operate Xbox at break even, they will run that thing indefinitely as a side project.

So, Xbox has nothing to do with Sony or Nintendo, they just got unlucky that Microsoft happened to find some success in their segment, and now they have to deal with them, which could also be good for business..
I am still annoyed they discontinued Windows Phone. Was so good...
 

Astray

Member
I still don't think Microsoft had much to do with ADF's port, there was absolutely no fanfare from them about it, unlike Ori, which was promoted as coming to Switch on the official Xbox news website.

If Hi-Fi is indeed coming to other platform(s), and since it's a internal first party developed game, it will probably be promoted like a proper release.
I think Microsoft kinda wants to downplay any releases like that on PS platform for now.. Hence the low-key release and outsourcing the publishing on an IP they own. From memory, it's sort of similar to how Sony 1st managed their early PC releases too. Conversely, Switch is perceived in the fandom as a "friendlier" platform, so the thinking is that they'd be more accepting of the idea of porting Hifi Rush. Though judging by the reactions of big Xbox influencers, this is not going down as well as Phil & team envisioned it.

For the record, I don't really expect that it's a definite absolute given that Microsoft is going 3P ASAP and dropping Xbox today. There are patterns that they might do it (I personally compared end of Zune vs the last holiday console discounts), but nothing is definite yet.

Because unlike SEGA back in the day, they have the luxury of playing it slow and seeing how things unfold, the mothership can realistically take a bit more financial pain while they see what happens, and they have a lot of optionality to adjust things, especially after the completed the ABK purchase.

One thing is definitely clear though, the future of Microsoft Gaming is at its most malleable now, and there's a lot of liquidity in potential events vs say, 2021.
 
Definitely more than the ridiculous ~2.5 million annual average sales that you claim for XSeries in the next years an for a new XBoxNext in its entire life.

What is your prediction? I remember when a little less than a month ago your prediction for 2023 was 5-6 million XSeries and the figures are at least 8+ million...

Where are you getting 8 million from?

That fact that you refuse to give a number and you are making numbers up says so much about you...
 
For the record, I don't really expect that it's a definite absolute given that Microsoft is going 3P ASAP and dropping Xbox today. There are patterns that they might do it (I personally compared end of Zune vs the last holiday console discounts), but nothing is definite yet.
They are not going 3rd party for sure. They learnt lessons from mobile phones that being third party makes you lose control. And especially with Google and Apple being direct competitors to Microsoft. It is not like Office where you don't have competition to a point that even launching on Mac it changes nothing and even beneficial. One of the reasons of Windows Phone death for example Google not allowing (or developing not sure) an app for Youtube. Then you had developers like Instagram openly claiming that they won't develop apps. Without proper ecosystem with hardware, they will begin to rely too much on platform holders. And especially on those who don't run Windows - thus Lenovo, MSI devices are fine and so. But without phone they literally have to rely on regulators in order to put Game Pass on iPhone.
 
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Astray

Member
They are not going 3rd party for sure. They learnt lessons from mobile phones that being third party prevents. And especially with Google and Apple being direct competitors to Microsoft. It is not like Office where you don't have competition to a point that even launching on Mac it changes nothing and even beneficial. One of the reasons of Windows Phone death for example Google not allowing (or developing not sure) an app for Youtube. Then you had developers like Instagram openly claiming that they won't develop apps.
I don't think them leaving phones was a bad thing for them, they clearly were coming way too late at it and there was no real path to sustainability (hence Insta etc noping out of developing apps, the cost to maintain those apps would have been useless given how bad the adoption was).

I think you are really underestimating the impact of Nadella's push for Office to be on nearly every device and OS while pivoting to services instead of products (basically pushing Azure/365 sub services instead of annual Office 20XX), he basically guaranteed that Office stays the prime productivity suite for at least another decade.

You look at how Microsoft is running this gen of Xbox, and it's completely running against his entire business ethos, I personally think that some form of persistent 3P publishing will definitely happen (how else are you going to internally justify the onboarding of thousands of devs that used to make PS/Nintendo products? Narrowing the scope of MS publishing to just Xbox is basically gonna put a ton of them out of a job sooner or later because the volume simply isn't there!)
 

HeWhoWalks

Gold Member
What a little bitch. Emotionally investing yourself in a platform that hasn't really earned that investment is stupid. The moves that Xbox is making now are the moves that they should have been making back in 2015.
Almost reads like a parody! Can one really be that much of a zealot?
 
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JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
Not good news for people who want a perpetual console war. Profit maximization dictates the entire industry, likely outside of Nintendo, is going this route. The future just arrived for Microsoft first as they reconcile with the immense cost of modern games development. People making Sega analogies forget Sega was dying, financially. Xbox, whatever that is, is profitable.
There is absolutely NO evidence that this is true. if it were MS would provide numbers to back it up. They don't. They talk a lot about revenue, which is all well and good, but they never tell you how much of that revenue is actual profit. For instance, $10 billion in revenue is useless if there are $11 billion in operating costs.
 
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reinking

Gold Member
While it's true the market will only suffer a max price, when you have less direct completion in a very specific field, prices will go up. And for sure without gamepass there would be no game sub service on PlayStation, just pay to play online like before.
Except before it was pay to get “Free” games, It was MS that introduced pay to play online. :messenger_winking_tongue:
 

twilo99

Member
I don't think them leaving phones was a bad thing for them, they clearly were coming way too late at it and there was no real path to sustainability (hence Insta etc noping out of developing apps, the cost to maintain those apps would have been useless given how bad the adoption was).

I think you are really underestimating the impact of Nadella's push for Office to be on nearly every device and OS while pivoting to services instead of products (basically pushing Azure/365 sub services instead of annual Office 20XX), he basically guaranteed that Office stays the prime productivity suite for at least another decade.

You look at how Microsoft is running this gen of Xbox, and it's completely running against his entire business ethos, I personally think that some form of persistent 3P publishing will definitely happen (how else are you going to internally justify the onboarding of thousands of devs that used to make PS/Nintendo products? Narrowing the scope of MS publishing to just Xbox is basically gonna put a ton of them out of a job sooner or later because the volume simply isn't there!)

I really don’t see a reason not to release games on all available platforms.

Having their own launcher/store on iOS and Android would be pivotal, but probably not essential, at least not currently.
 

twilo99

Member
There is absolutely NO evidence that this is true. if it were MS would provide numbers to back it up. They don't. They talk a lot about revenue, which is all well and good, but they never tell you how much of that revenue is actual profit.

Even if the Xbox division is loosing money, it doesn’t seem to be significant enough, otherwise they would’ve shut it down by now, it’s not like they don’t know how to get rid of projects that are not successful…

I think Xbox has been doing “good enough” for decades and now they finally decided to throw some real money at it and see what happens.
 

THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
Sorry. Here's a more accurate discription of your position

SHqiRKF.gif

I'm not moving anything, the fact remains if there was no gamepass, you would likely still have regular ps plus and psnow streaming only. It's not my fault that you are in denial that ms brought competition that forced sony to add new services. It certainly wasn't Nintendo and Sony was very reluctant to do anything.
 

THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
Except before it was pay to get “Free” games, It was MS that introduced pay to play online. :messenger_winking_tongue:

In all fairness there, online play on consoles was garbage before xbox came along with pay to play online. So they moved the needle there a lot.
 

Astray

Member
I really don’t see a reason not to release games on all available platforms.
The biggest reason is that this makes their hardware even more undesirable, because why pay an additional $300-500 to play games you can find on any other ecosystem?

Exclusivity is artificial and annoying, but it's an enduring concept because it's how media delivery hardware is always sold, and Microsoft is very quickly eroding the Xbox brand equity through undermining exclusivity (even things they got goodboi points for, like releasing Ori, turned out to be a bad move because that didn't mend fences with Moon Studios one bit, and it robbed the Xbox platform of an important differentiator).
 
It had some good ideas, but they were never going to be able to compete with Apple and Google.. too late to the party.
The thing is that they could - if they kept it for longer. They of course would not gain the same market share as Google or Apple, but they could still get to 10% at least. With proper integration across windows devices, maybe Xbox and so on + now AI - they could get somewhere. Especially with them supporting android apps on windows even. Maybe it would then encouraged them to work more with handheld more of Windows (that tried with Windows 8, it did not work well but still the idea was solid). They get - for example now - Copilot integrations and so on. And would have a full control over the ecosystem. The potential was there. But oh well. I liked my Lumia though...


I think you are really underestimating the impact of Nadella's push for Office to be on nearly every device and OS while pivoting to services instead of products (basically pushing Azure/365 sub services instead of annual Office 20XX), he basically guaranteed that Office stays the prime productivity suite for at least another decade.
The problem that that Office was already ubiquitous and that's why it worked so well. Same with Azure - one of the reasons of it growth is B2B. Basically both Azure and Office success were due to almost monopolistic control that Microsoft had over this. Same with Teams integrations - without Office 365 it would not have taken off. Everything was a result of a high market share. It is like with Bing now where Apple like "nope nope nope". With Office? What alternative did Apple have? With Azure? A lot of businesses are running on Windows since the immemorial, basically meaning that if you want to go to cloud - business will use Azure due to B2B integrations.

You look at how Microsoft is running this gen of Xbox, and it's completely running against his entire business ethos, I personally think that some form of persistent 3P publishing will definitely happen (how else are you going to internally justify the onboarding of thousands of devs that used to make PS/Nintendo products? Narrowing the scope of MS publishing to just Xbox is basically gonna put a ton of them out of a job sooner or later because the volume simply isn't there!)
With Xbox it does not (and probably won't) work the same because Xbox's market and mind share are extremely small in comparison to what Windows and Office had. Word, Excel are like everything you think of when coming to documents. Similar to Adobe and Photoshop. Xbox does not have the same benefit. At all. When you need to pay third parties to come to your problem (and let's be real - a lot of the games Xbox is getting right now and did not get in Xbox One era is because Microsoft is paying for that. It was the case with Xbox 360 too though). But leaving Xbox console business immediately erases their ecosystem - on PC people will go to Switch, on mobile - people will stick to App Store / Google Play for most of the part. But I suspect they don't get why Office subs were so successful. Eroding Xbox in favor of bucks from other ecosystem means that people will just go to those systems anyway - on PC Steam is default, in portables - Switch, in home consoles - Playstation. That's all to it.
 
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Fredrik

Member
They allow people to purchase their games from steam because they own them and still get the majority of the revenue cut. The majority of games sold on the Xbox platform are 3rd party games. If they enable their console customers to purchase those 3rd party games from a storefront that isn't the Xbox store then they will see zero of that money. It would be the stupidest thing they could ever do and it would make it pointless for them to continue making hardware (especially given the fact that they are not a hardware company).
Steam and Gamepass on a slick Xbox-branded and silent Windows box for the living room would be awesome.
Good point on the 3rd party game cut though, I don’t know how much they’re making from that on Xbox but it seems like they’re willing to lose that chunk of money considering how aggressive they are with Gamepass, they’ve been cannibalizing on that for awhile already. Either way going by all their moves so far Microsoft’s focus is to sell subscriptions now, they want the monthly tick.
As for the discussion around 3rd party launchers etc - the current trend is that 3rd party publishers are now returning to steam (and in general are returning to allowing their games to be on any many PC storefronts as possible - as an example you can purchase EA, Ubisoft and Rockstar games across Steam or Epic's launchers, Sony games are across GOG, Epic and Steam, CDPR's games are on all launchers possible) after they all attempted to sneak away and go it alone with their own launchers. EA returned (with their subscription service as well), Ubisoft have returned, Rockstar have returned, Microsoft have, Bethesda and Activision both did prior to being acquired. I don't know where you're coming up with the idea that anything different to that is happening (or is going to happen).
Crystal ball talk as I said 😏
As said pubs use Steam because it’s so big, and the other stores are used as a bonus to maximize sales. Doesn’t change anything regarding an app-, launcher-, subscription-focused future. This is all a decade away. The likely ones that will do this are Microsoft, Sony, Apple, Google, Valve, possibly Epic. EA, Ubisoft, CDPR, Rockstar will either be acquired or will willingly stay under an umbrella of someone else. Netflix will try and flop. Amazon too. Nintendo is the outlier in all kinds of ways, no idea what they’re up to.
 
What does this mean back catalog? Old OG or 360 exclusive games?

I also doubt 3rd party exclusives are coming over or flagship era exclusives. Even if gears and halo came over from past entries what would that change?
I personally use my XBsX for all the older titles, and 3rd party titles. I also bought physical disc of delisted games or ones that were never on digital. Plus some games pc ports that never went to playstation (grim dawn and star point gemini, I am looking at you). Been having a blast with OG xbox Crimson skies, and a bunch of 360 games I never got to play, plus ps3 games that never made it to ps4/5.

That being said, I am probably not the norm. Most get a new console for new games, not old, I am the outlier. If this is only a select few 1st party games, I don't see:
a. The payout, will profit be worth the porting costs?
b. The PR... will xbox fanboys throw a fit (colt eastwood and the like) , bad PR is never good.
c. Will it bring over others to want to check out what Xbox has to offer?
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Even if the Xbox division is loosing money, it doesn’t seem to be significant enough, otherwise they would’ve shut it down by now, it’s not like they don’t know how to get rid of projects that are not successful…

I think Xbox has been doing “good enough” for decades and now they finally decided to throw some real money at it and see what happens.
That's what they almost did though. They decided to shut down the division during last generation, until Phil Spencer came up with the Game Pass / 3 billion gamers pitch.

So Microsoft bought into this new vision, decided to fund it, and gave it a few years to see how it goes. Now they are realizing that the plan wasn't as solid.

They were having "hard discussions on P&L" and Satya Nadella has also removed Game Pass growth from his bonus KPIs. They've clearly lost a lot of faith in that plan, which is now we're seeing the pivot.

Xbox has grown so big that they wouldn't be able to simply shut down the division at this point. They'll have to lay off nearly 25K people otherwise. But abandoning the hardware and becoming a third-party game publisher that publishes on every platform (much like EA) seems like the more logical plan that may help them increase revenue and, more importantly, profitability.

That's what Tim Stuart also told the investors last month.
 

Darsxx82

Member
I missed nothing.

You have missed everything then
I supported the idea of a declination -

No, by "supporting him" you are not defending a decline, you are defending that XSeries in the next 4 full years will not be able to add more than 10 million consoles to what it has today and that one more than possible New XBOX NextGen will be unable to sell more than 10-15 million during its entire life... Otherwise I don't know why your impetus was to quote me while I have at no time denied the possibility of a gen-over-gen decline. In fact, quite the opposite and I have described the reasons in this same thread.
something you continue to struggle with, evident by your continued refusal to provide numbers to Mibu. 🙃
What numbers?? In this same thread I have pointed out the figure of 40-55 million depending on the strategy that MS has decided in the coming years for its console (exclusivities, hardware review, XSeriesPro?, advancement of the generation to 2026-27?, hardware periodic console?...).
I repeat, it is clear that you lost the thread in this discussion.

Where are you getting 8 million from?
???😂😂
Ampere Nov 2023 say 7'6 millons sold trougth. Add December sales ww (600k-1millon) and you have almost 3+ millons vs what you predicted 1 month ago (5-6 millons)

That fact that you refuse to give a number and you are making numbers up says so much about you...
The fact is that I have given numbers several times in this same thread and you have simply acted blind... That said, there is no need to give figures or argue against your predictions. Simply because the seriousness of those figures does not exist.
 
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HeWhoWalks

Gold Member
You have missed everything then


No, by "supporting him" you are not defending a decline, you are defending that XSeries in the next 4 full years will not be able to add more than 10 million consoles to what it has today and that one more than possible New XBOX NextGen will be unable to sell more than 10-15 million during its entire life... Otherwise I don't know why your impetus was to quote me while I have at no time denied the possibility of a gen-over-gen decline. In fact, quite the opposite and I have described the reasons in this same thread.

What numbers?? In this same thread I have pointed out the figure of 40-55 million depending on the strategy that MS has decided in the coming years for its console (exclusivities, hardware review, XSeriesPro?, advancement of the generation to 2026-27?, hardware periodic console?...).
I repeat, it is clear that you lost the thread in this discussion.


???😂😂
Ampere Nov 2023 say 7'6 millons sold trougth. Add December sales ww (600k-1millon) and you have almost 3+ millons vs what you predicted 1 month ago (5-6 millons)
I haven’t lost anything. Unless they can turn a major tide, a decline in the next gen of Xbox is not out of the question. If that’s not the case, answer my original question - what’s going to keep that from happening?
 
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Del_X

Member
There is absolutely NO evidence that this is true. if it were MS would provide numbers to back it up. They don't. They talk a lot about revenue, which is all well and good, but they never tell you how much of that revenue is actual profit. For instance, $10 billion in revenue is useless if there are $11 billion in operating costs.
Again from the FTC leak.

Screenshot-2023-09-21-at-18-26-17-Xbox-profits-revealed-in-new-FTC-leak-1024x576.png
 

Fatmanp

Member
Makes sense. No point in fighting a console war if your market share seems to be regressing. One year timed exclusive on any first party games then port as they see fit.
 

Fredrik

Member
Most get a new console for new games, not old, I am the outlier. If this is only a select few 1st party games, I don't see:
a. The payout, will profit be worth the porting costs?
b. The PR... will xbox fanboys throw a fit (colt eastwood and the like) , bad PR is never good.
c. Will it bring over others to want to check out what Xbox has to offer?
Think of it like Sony’s late PC ports, Microsoft’s games are already on PC so they can’t use the PC for this, so they’ll go to Switch and/or PS.
a) It’ll get them extra money from games that has stopped selling.
b) any bad PR is just fanboys throwing a fit, it’ll pass.
c) it might increase IP awareness outside of the home bubble and can create hype for a sequel and possibly some extra hw sales.

Is it a good strategy?
Well I haven’t bought Spider-Man 2 yet since I assume it’ll come to PC. But they’ll still get a sale, some day. So, maybe?
 

Darsxx82

Member
I haven’t lost anything. Unless they can turn a major tide, a decline in the next gen of Xbox is not out of the question.
LOL again, I wasn't discussing with him the possibility of a gen over gen decline, I was discussing the figures of 10-15 million maximum throughout his entire life that he predicts for a more new Xbox NextGen and (the funniest thing) only based on an assumption "contagion effect" due to future sales figures for XSeries that he invents. I mean, do you agree with those figures?

Anyway, it's clear that you've lost the entire thread of the discussion or you know it and don't want to admit it at this point.


If that’s not the case, answer my original question - what’s going to keep that from happening?
??? LOL you have the answer and figures in this same thread and quite 🤣
 

HeWhoWalks

Gold Member
LOL again, I wasn't discussing with him the possibility of a gen over gen decline, I was discussing the figures of 10-15 million maximum throughout his entire life that he predicts for a more new Xbox NextGen and (the funniest thing) only based on an assumption "contagion effect" due to future sales figures for XSeries that he invents. I mean, do you agree with those figures?

Anyway, it's clear that you've lost the entire thread of the discussion or you know it and don't want to admit it at this point.



??? LOL you have the answer and figures in this same thread and quite 🤣
Mibu’s whole point was about a decline (albeit, perhaps a little significant). You laughed at the notion of declination entirely - where this all began…

So, I’ll make it easier - if the Series consoles close between 40 and 50 million (what I expect), what’s a ballpark for next gen (particularly if you’re predicting no notable decline)? How will they achieve it?
 
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???😂😂
Ampere Nov 2023 say 7'6 millons sold trougth. Add December sales ww (600k-1millon) and you have almost 3+ millons vs what you predicted 1 month ago (5-6 millons)

The fact is that I have given numbers several times in this same thread and you have simply acted blind... That said, there is no need to give figures or argue against your predictions. Simply because the seriousness of those figures does not exist.

Ampere are estimates not sales figures, also I think they were estimates for the entire year, at the least they're 12 month estimates as they're YoY sales estimates.

Other estimates have Xbox significantly lower based on calculated data and known values. They were at 21 million LTD at the end of June 23.

So that was 8.4 million a year. Their numbers from every reputable tracking source has them down more than Ampere's estimated 15% YoY in respective regions.

I also love how you anticipate that they sold 1 million in December, which they almost certainly didn't after what we've seen from their UK numbers.
 
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