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[Celine]

Speaking of FFVII, I was thinking if it would be possible to redone the background but keeping them in 2D, just add multilayer like Mighty Switch does.

 

[Laguna]

Here some expectation for the upcoming (early 2012) Vita games.

Tales of Innocence - 110k (remake of a game that not many Tales of fans have played)
Ragnarok Oddysey - 90k-110k (will benefit from the LoA crowd)
Persona 4 - 150k
Gravity Rush - 60k-100k
Wipeout 2097 - 45k-69k
extreme escape adventure - 60k-70k
Modnation Racers and LBP - both under 150k

did I miss any relevant release?

 

[beje]

Speaking of FFVII, I was thinking if it would be possible to redone the background but keeping them in 2D, just add multilayer like Mighty Switch does.

If they have lost the original models (or have no way to port them from legacy 3D tools to nowadays software) and all they can work with are the 320x240 horribly compressed and artifact-y final renders, it will look like ass. And looking how that's what they did for FFVII and FFVIII cutscenes for Theatrythm (with the original assy framerate) I sadly think that's the case.

 

[Mpl90]

Next main FF on a portable? I think it's much more possible we'll see a sequel to Type 0, which is doing rather well for being a sort of a parallel saga. But, seeing how things are going in the Japanese market, a main FF on a portable could be possible.

 

[orioto]

If they have lost the original models (or have no way to port them from legacy 3D tools to nowadays software) and all they can work with are the 320x240 horribly compressed and artifact-y final renders, it will look like ass. And looking how that's what they did for FFVII and FFVIII cutscenes for Theatrythm (with the original assy framerate) I sadly think that's the case.

I would be surprised they lost it.. They probably don't want to rerender everything and that would at least need new textures i think..

 

[beje]

I would be surprised they lost it.. They probably don't want to rerender everything and that would at least need new textures i think..

You would be surprised at how many times code or original assets for old games are lost for good (ever wondered why most of the times old games re-released like SEGA Ages are -badly- emulated?). And it's not an old issue, I remember some weeks ago news about a japanese MMO that had to close down because they botched the source code in one update and didn't keep any backup at hand.

 

[Kenka]

While I've been avoiding saying this since I think some people will maul me for making the suggestion, I actually feel that Sony has been incredibly upfront in terms of their long term plans for the Vita.

I'll illuminate on why [...]:


-The real target market for the PlayStation Vita is teenagers, which is the market that tends to be far less favorable to Nintendo, but doesn't always have enough money for either a smartphone or a brand new console.
-However, to successfully target teenagers, they feel they need a system that can offer a console like experience.
-As mentioned above, price is a big factor for being able to target teenagers successfully, so by making the PlayStation Vita with some of the world's most common smartphones parts, and launching relatively early, they can drop the price to $150-$180 by the end of 2013 without bleeding tons of money. At this point, they can also have a large catalog of cheap games, which is important when selling something to people on a tight budget.
-However, in order to sell the system early and build this catalog, they need someone to sell the system to, so for the system's first two years, it will target core gamers while Sony hopes to make a small profit, or at least break even.
-This does imply that Sony intends to pull the rug out from their original audience a bit when they switch the target audience of the system pretty early in its lifecycle. The answer to not overly displeasing their customers though revolves around doing this switch at the same time they release the PlayStation 4. With older core gamers focusing on that platform and its shiny new games instead, they are less likely to notice that their Vita is getting less games targeted at them.
-Since the PlayStation 4 could very well cost $400+ at the time it launches, it also doesn't interfere with their target audience of teenagers as a large percentage of them can't afford to buy the new platform, especially with its $60 games.
-Teenagers are also an area where Sony has a unique advantage, as they are one of the only publishers who make AAA Western core games that are rated T instead of M. While lots of teenagers can play M rated games, quite a few can't, so when they are upset that they can't buy Halo, Gears, or Call of Duty, at least they can go buy Uncharted and Infamous.
-Sony's software pricing strategy with the Vita also helps them on this front, as they are willing to launch notable new games at $30, and if those are still too much, they intend to have a large suite of $10-$20 downloadable titles on top of their now notably cheaper back catalog.
-Teenagers are also one audience where it is less likely that their customers will feel embarrassed to use their system in public, which is a common problem handhelds face in the West. Quite a few 30 years old might not feel comfortable taking their Vita out on the bus, however, no one is going to bat an eye if a 15 year old does it.

Now, assuming their business doesn't completely implode within the first two years, this plan doesn't actually seem that bad to me.

However, this plan only works in the West where they can release a lot of notable titles themselves and also pretty easily pick up worthwhile third party games for teenagers like sports games and racing titles.

[...]
I get the impression that Japanese teenagers don't have as strong of a "Kidtendo/Casualtendo" feeling toward the Nintendo's platforms, especially since the 3DS now has much of the Japanese PSP line-up, meaning that it is a much less open market for Sony to try and get.

I quite don't agree with the red part since Uncharted launched at a rather high price but I do get your point. The Vita strategy relies on early buyers of a specific demographics buying games and hardware, which is bound to switch to the PS4. The next buyers would be another audience with less purchase power and for whom the device would still be cool with adequate software.

Lifetime sales curve would be like :

x-axis is years, y-axis sales per year. Light yellow are mid-20s dudes, the purple zone is teenagers. Would be cool for Sony.

Your last bolded paragraph is not painting a rosy picture. If Nintendo gets all possible demographics with the 3DS before the PS4 launches, then it will pretty much confine the PSVita to a niche. And Sony will have to rethink what its audience will be from that point onwards.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I would be surprised they lost it.. They probably don't want to rerender everything and that would at least need new textures i think..

I think you'd be surprised at just how much material is lost through incompetent archiving, disregard for potential future rereleases, superseded tools etc. The British TV industry went through these growing pains back in the 70s but I get the impression that many gaming companies are still not as clued-up on archiving their code etc. as they should be, and I can certainly imagine material from the 80s through to the late 90s being quite patchy, especially when you're talking about companies outsourcing video etc. to third parties.

 

[electroplankton]

Here some expectation for the upcoming (early 2012) Vita games.

Tales of Innocence - 110k (remake of a game that not many Tales of fans have played)
Ragnarok Oddysey - 90k-110k (will benefit from the LoA crowd)
Persona 4 - 150k
Gravity Rush - 60k-100k
Wipeout 2097 - 45k-69k
extreme escape adventure - 60k-70k
Modnation Racers and LBP - both under 150k

did I miss any relevant release?

Too high expectations; Persona and Tales of will have to chance to sell better, but there's no way the others will reach those numbers.

 

[ElFly]

I know publishers tend not to think long-term, but static/pre-rendered backgrounds don't really lend themselves to future ports.

Is there a device out there that SE could port Bravely Default to that wouldn't make the game look assy? (Apart from PSP)

They'd lend better to ports if they kept high resolution versions of the backgrounds if they are drawn, or the original 3d assets if those are prerendered.

If they have lost the original models (or have no way to port them from legacy 3D tools to nowadays software) and all they can work with are the 320x240 horribly compressed and artifact-y final renders, it will look like ass. And looking how that's what they did for FFVII and FFVIII cutscenes for Theatrythm (with the original assy framerate) I sadly think that's the case.

On the other hand, the models for the FF7 movies are barely better than the in engine characters, so even if they could rerender the movies in hd, they'd still look pretty bad.

 

[Laguna]

Too high expectations; Persona and Tales of will have to chance to sell better, but there's no way the others will reach those numbers.

What numbers do you expect? I tried to play it safe, but it´s really too early to make an educated guess to be honest. We don´t even have Vitas second week numbers yet. The games I think I overshot are LBP, MNR if the PSP versions performances are any indication, actually I had a more modest number at first but I don´t know how much Sonys is willing to push these games this time and right now it doesn´t look like there´ll be to many new releases to chose from (early 2012) anyway.

 

[electroplankton]

What numbers do you expect? I tried to play it safe, but it´s really too early to make an educated guess to be honest. We don´t even have Vitas second week numbers yet. The games I think I overshot are LBP, MNR if the PSP versions performances are any indication, actually I had a more modest number at first but I don´t know how much Sonys is willing to push these games this time and right now it doesn´t look like there´ll be to many new releases to chose from (early 2012) anyway.

Half for Good People Die, Ragnarock and Wipeout. LBP and ModNation in the range 10-20k.

 

[Laguna]

Half for Good People Die, Ragnarock and Wipeout. LBP and ModNation in the range 10-20k.

These numbers seem really low but to be honest they aren´t that unlikely either. I think I´ll post my expectations for (January-April) 3DS software later.

 

[Jonnyram]

Half for Good People Die, Ragnarock and Wipeout. LBP and ModNation in the range 10-20k.

Wipeout won't even make 10k unless SCE decides to market the shit out of it for a change. Wipeout is a reliably unpopular series in Japan :/ Ragnarok could be a surprise hit if it turns out to be good and gets word-of-mouth. Agree with you about the rest though. Laguna's predictions were way too optimistic. Persona and Tales are the only games in that list with decent potential.

 

[Durante]

extreme escape adventure - 60k-70k
Modnation Racers and LBP - both under 150k

999 sold 40k LTD and was released in 2009 on DS. Expecting 50% more than that for its sequel on a new platform is already an out-there prediction -- when you take into account that the sequel is also on 3DS it's just ridiculous. The Vita version will do 20k at best.

Modnation racers on PSP did 10k, so yeah, I'm quite sure it will be under 150!

 

[electroplankton]

These numbers seem really low but to be honest they aren´t that unlikely either. I think I´ll post my expectations for (January-April) 3DS software later.

Just take a look on 3DS' library in its first months. Quite anticipated games like DoA or Gundam sold barely 40-60k, and in my opinion there's no way a game like Ragnarock will sell more than 60-70k.. The brand sold 50k on DS and less than 20k on PSP, this is more action-oriented but still.

 

[Laguna]

999 sold 40k LTD and was released in 2009 on DS. Expecting 50% more than that for its sequel on a new platform is already an out-there prediction -- when you take into account that the sequel is also on 3DS it's just ridiculous. The Vita version will do 20k at best.

Modnation racers on PSP did 10k, so yeah, I'm quite sure it will be under 150!

Like I said before I inflated my prediction quite a bit just in case if one of these games does better than expected and to avoid a backlash... But seeing your expectations there really doesn´t seem to be many decent sellers slated for early next year. Are there other known games that I forgot to mention?

Just take a look on 3DS' library in its first months. Quite anticipated games like DoA or Gundam sold barely 40-60k, and in my opinion there's no way a game like Ragnarock will sell more than 60-70k.. The brand sold 50k on DS and less than 20k on PSP, this is more action-oriented but still.

I still remember those low sales, but these games were also released at an unfavourable time and when 3DS was in a slump, I doubt they would have sold considerably better without Japan´s circumstances back then but I think these games didn´t sell as much as possible. Ragnarok Odyssey is quit different to other franchise entries and developed by GameArts this time and it actually could benefit from the LoA crowd, but I agree that my prediction was a bit optimistic.

 

[Durante]

Like I said before I inflated my prediction quite a bit just in case if one of these games does better than expected and to avoid a backlash... But seeing your expectations there really doesn´t seem to be many decent sellers slated for early next year. Are there other known games that I forgot to mention?

Dragon's Crown maybe? It also won't set the world on fire, but I expect it to sell a lot better than many of the games on your list. Vanillaware's PSP game at least did 100k.

 

[Laguna]

I completely forgot about Dragon´s Crown. Vanillaware has a dedicated fanbase to achieve decent sales for a niche game. There´s also Time Travellers but this is a PSP/3DS/Vita multiplatform release.

 

[electroplankton]

I still remember those low sales, but these games were also released at an unfavourable time and when 3DS was in a slump, I doubt they would have sold considerably better without Japan´s circumstances back then but I think these games didn´t sell as much as possible. Ragnarok Odyssey is quit different to other franchise entries and developed by GameArts this time and it actually could benefit from the LoA crowd, but I agree that my prediction was a bit optimistic.

LoA's crowd? Do you mean 50k people at most?

 

[Laguna]

Here my expectations for the (Jan-April) 3ds lineup (from Nintendo direct list). Keep in mind that these are just "for fun" without any further analysis and the potential to be completely off

Kingdom Hearts 3DS: 625k
Resident Evil: Revelations: 180k
Fire Emblem - Awakening: 150k

New Love Plus: 140k
Kid Icarus: 125k
Dynasty Warriors VS: 115k
Bravely Default: 100k (ok this one has no release date yet)

Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: - 90k
Hatsune Miku and Future Stars Project Mirai: 90k
Mario&Sonic at London Olympics: 80k
Girl's RPG: - 80k
Rythem Thief R: - 50k
Tekken 3D Prime Edition: - 60k
Beyond the Labyrinth: - 60k

Harvest Moon Hajimari no Daichi: - 65k
Metal Gear Solid 3D: 50k
Ghost Camera: 35k
Ace Combat 3DS - 30k

LoA's crowd? Do you mean 50k people at most?

more like 60k by then

 

[BishopLamont]

Here my expectations for the (Jan-April) 3ds lineup (from Nintendo direct list). Keep in mind that these are just "for fun" without any further analysis and the potential to be completely off

Kingdom Hearts 3DS: 625k
Resident Evil: Revelations: 180k
Fire Emblem - Awakening: 150k

New Love Plus: 140k
Kid Icarus: 125k
Dynasty Warriors VS: 115k
Bravely Default: 100k (ok this one has no release date yet)

Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: - 90k
Hatsune Miku and Future Stars Project Mirai: 90k
Mario&Sonic at London Olympics: 80k
Girl's RPG: - 80k
Rythem Thief R: - 50k
Tekken 3D Prime Edition: - 60k
Beyond the Labyrinth: - 60k

Harvest Moon Hajimari no Daichi: - 65k
Metal Gear Solid 3D: 50k
Ghost Camera: 35k
Ace Combat 3DS - 30k




more like 60k by then

All these look too low.

 

[Spiegel]

KH, RE and FE are also low for new games on these franchises.

RE will be a major bomba if it sells 180k

 

[Alrus]

I completely forgot about Dragon´s Crown. Vanillaware has a dedicated fanbase to achieve decent sales for a niche game. There´s also Time Travellers but this is a PSP/3DS/Vita multiplatform release.

In Japan Vanilla Software games never sold that much with the exception of Grand Knight History which sold incredibly well... I don't expect Dragon's Crown to sell nearly as much.

Also I'd say most of your 3DS predictions are too low with the exception of MGS3D and Shiren Camera (I seriously don't see that game selling well)

 

[BishopLamont]

KH, RE and FE are also low for new games on these franchises.

RE will be a major bomba if it sells 180k

Really depends on how well the 3DS audience takes a liking to FPS.

Of all those games, I see Kid Icarus with the most potential to be a breakout hit.

Maybe add another 100k to FE, really not sure how much KH will sell.

 

[king zell]

 

[airmangataosenai]

Ragnarok is a wildcard, but I can definitely see it doing well as it's in a genre that PSP/Vita fans have been shown to be receptive to.

 

[Mpl90]

I can't see the image. What should it show us?

EDIT: Now I can

 

[Kenka]

Here my expectations for the (Jan-April) 3ds lineup (from Nintendo direct list). Keep in mind that these are just "for fun" without any further analysis and the potential to be completely off

They are really off.
You can easily double the numbers on average. I'll toss a coin too.

Kingdom Hearts 3DS: 500k
Hatsune Miku and Future Stars Project Mirai: 270k
Resident Evil: Revelations: 250k
Fire Emblem - Awakening: 250k
Tekken 3D Prime Edition: - 230k
Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: - 220k
New Love Plus: 200k
Kid Icarus: 175k
Dynasty Warriors VS: 100k
Metal Gear Solid 3D: 0k (cause it sucks monkey balls).

The rest I don't know.

 

[Mpl90]

Amazon watch: Nintendo Direct had a big effect.

Shinren Camera - 35 ( his highest position was 50th, and it has been out of the top100 for a while)
RE: Revelations - Almost in top 40, after it returned in top 100, around the 60th position, some days ago
Theatryhthm FF is back in top 100, now it's 44th
Miku normal edition is back in top 100, 68th
New Love Plus is 78th, back in top80
MGS is 93rd

P.S. There should be even be Rhythm Thief between Zelda and the MK Peripheral, according to the 3DS only Amazon chart, so in the 60th position, and it would be the first time for it in top 100... but it's absent.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

All these look too low.

Some of those seem on track with what their first-week/month sales might be.

Despite the launch-rush, games like Samurai Warriors: Chronicles went on to do over 100k, right? With the bigger install base and the [assumed] higher-quality I'd think most of what's listed would be a bit higher in terms of lifetime sales.

 

[Laguna]

RE is a bit more complicated to gauge because it really can go both ways, either it catches up and sells alot or it doesn´t, there aren´t any precedent examples of successful horror games on handhelds in Japan.

@Alrus
I know that Vanillawares games aren´t big sellers, what I meant was that they have a small niche with a dedicated fanbase.

@BishopLamont
Some games will sell more but I think a 4-5mio. userbase has its limits and some games will underperform. I agree that Kid Icarus could be a surprise.

 

[charlequin]

I'll like to dissect this point to see if anyone can actually prove that this is the case factually.

- What is a reasonable budget?
- What is the "size" of FFVII defined by?
- What is the technical requirement to be a "HD remake" in the first place?

To take these in reverse order:

To qualify for what most people mean when they talk about the mythical FF7R, the game would have to be what I would call an "upgraded remake." It would be expected to fully implement all content from the original game; have brand-new assets appropriate to the target platform; completely redone CGI cutscenes, probably an edited and/or expanded script; tweaks, rebalancing, and expansions to the game's systems; and a series of new areas/monsters/items/etc. as "new remake content." From a visual standpoint, it would be expected to look equivalent to a new title released on the same platform.

In terms of "size," the real question here is probably raw asset count: how many area "rooms" are there, how many NPCs, how many monsters, etc. I don't have anything like a formal count, but my estimate is that FF7 has a much higher number for each of these categories than, say, FFXIII.

In terms of a reasonable budget -- do we have any sort of good idea what FFXIII cost as a starting point for this discussion?

 

[cw_sasuke]

They are really off.
You can easily double the numbers on average. I'll toss a coin too.

Kingdom Hearts 3DS: 500k
Hatsune Miku and Future Stars Project Mirai: 270k
Resident Evil: Revelations: 250k
Fire Emblem - Awakening: 250k
Tekken 3D Prime Edition: - 230k
Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: - 220k
New Love Plus: 200k
Kid Icarus: 175k
Dynasty Warriors VS: 100k
Metal Gear Solid 3D: 0k (cause it sucks monkey balls).

The rest I don't know.

Tekken sellin 230K on 3DS ? Maybe you should take a look how well the main series have been selling on home consoles this generation. Fire Emblem sellin as much as Revelations or outsellin Love+ doesnt seem likely too me.

Dynasty Warriors Vs sellin only 100K would be also disappointing, considering Samurai Warriors Chron. at launch, without multilayer sold more.

 

[GameplayWhore]

RE will be a major bomba if it sells 180k

Has any portable RE sold 180k in Japan? I only have access to the garaph stuff, so I don't know how anything prior to the DS did (I suspect RE:Gaiden did not break any records).

The expectations look pretty reasonable considering how Mercs 3D has done so far.

 

[Takao]

RE: Revelations is a much larger, and more important game than any of those previous RE handheld ones. It would be like comparing Metal Gear: Ghost Babel to Peace Walker or something.

Dynasty Warriors Vs sellin only 100K would be also disappointing, considering Samurai Warriors Chron. at launch, without multilayer sold more.

DW Next's performance should tell you that things aren't looking up for the Dynasty Warriors franchise.

 

[duckroll]

In terms of a reasonable budget -- do we have any sort of good idea what FFXIII cost as a starting point for this discussion?

FFXIII is not a good example because it is not a game developed in a stable environment. A better example would be comparing a hypothetical FFVII remake in terms of content and budget with something like FFXIII-2 or The Last Remnant. Does FFVII really have more areas, larger areas, and more enemies/bosses/etc compared to these games? I'll say it's pretty debatable.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Has any portable RE sold 180k in Japan? I only have access to the garaph stuff, so I don't know how anything prior to the DS did (I suspect RE:Gaiden did not break any records).

The expectations look pretty reasonable considering how Mercs 3D has done so far.

Revelations is the first "real" handheld effort for the IP - you cant compare it to ports like RE1 on DS, it is pretty much the next main game. Content and gameplay-wise.

DW Next's performance should tell you that things aren't looking up for the Dynasty Warriors franchise.

...still, 100K LTD would be a disappointment.

 

[Spiegel]

Has any portable RE sold 180k in Japan? I only have access to the garaph stuff, so I don't know how anything prior to the DS did (I suspect RE:Gaiden did not break any records).

The expectations look pretty reasonable considering how Mercs 3D has done so far.

Resident Evil Revelations is to the RE franchise the same as Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker was to the MGS franchise. Previous handheld spinoffs, ports and cash-ins are not comparable in any way

 

[thestopsign]

Here my expectations for the (Jan-April) 3ds lineup (from Nintendo direct list). Keep in mind that these are just "for fun" without any further analysis and the potential to be completely off

Kingdom Hearts 3DS: 750k
Resident Evil: Revelations: 300k (this one is fairly volatile though, we haven't had a test of the original RE franchise in a while).
Fire Emblem - Awakening: 250k

New Love Plus: 180k
Kid Icarus: 80k (again, really hard to predict this one)
Dynasty Warriors VS: 115k
Bravely Default: 100k (I'm going to put this on SE's advertising, could do really well though.)

Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: 130k
Hatsune Miku and Future Stars Project Mirai: 150k
Mario&Sonic at London Olympics: 250k (DS ones did 255k and 380k respectively)
Girl's RPG: >100k (this could be the next big thing, or it could flop)
Rythem Thief R: 50k
Tekken 3D Prime Edition: 80k (PSP games did 100k)
Beyond the Labyrinth: 60k

Harvest Moon Hajimari no Daichi: 115k (DS games ranged from 100-300k)
Metal Gear Solid 3D: 71k (put it at Twin Snakes level)
Ghost Camera: 35k (no clue)
Ace Combat 3DS: 104k (PSP game level)

Fixed it up with a bit of research on Garaph.

Tekken sellin 230K on 3DS ? Maybe you should take a look how well the main series have been selling on home consoles this generation. Fire Emblem sellin as much as Revelations or outsellin Love+ doesnt seem likely too me.

Dynasty Warriors Vs sellin only 100K would be also disappointing, considering Samurai Warriors Chron. at launch, without multilayer sold more.

The lowest a Fire Emblem games has done on a handheld is Sacred Stones at 236k, it would be a disappointment for that franchise to not sell around 250k.

Tekken will probably sell a little less than the PSP versions. Dynasty Warriors won't do that much better than the launch game, if at all.

 

[GameplayWhore]

Revelations is the first "real" handheld effort for the IP - you cant compare it to ports like RE1 on DS, it is pretty much the next main game. Content and gameplay-wise.

Are the assets all new? I get the impression that it's a substantial effort for a handheld, but I thought I heard somewhere that it uses resources from prior REs, that it wasn't an effort nearly on the level of an actual mainline entry. That is, it's not a DQIX. (edit: that is, it's not a DQIX as compared to the rest of its series)

I'm not suggesting that it will sell in line with previous handheld RE efforts. However, I am pointing out that--

Oh, balls. That's what I get for no coffee. Sorry, I thought that the expectations were Capcom's, not from one of the posters here.

 

[duckroll]

Resident Evil Revelations is to the RE franchise the same as Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker was to the MGS franchise. Previous handheld spinoffs, ports and cash-ins are not comparable in any way

I dunno about that. Before Peace Walker, Metal Gear Solid had Portable Ops. While there's a quality difference in game design and staff involved, I would say MPO is definitely the first real 3D MGS on portables, not PW.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Ragnarok is a wildcard, but I can definitely see it doing well as it's in a genre that PSP/Vita fans have been shown to be receptive to.

The risk is it's on Vita, not PSP. MH clones did amazingly on PSP because they followed MH, that's going to be a huge question mark going forward for Vita. It'll be interesting to see which franchises follow MH to 3DS and which ones try and rebuild the market on Vita.

 

[duckroll]

The risk is it's on Vita, not PSP. MH clones did amazingly on PSP because they followed MH, that's going to be a huge question mark going forward for Vita. It'll be interesting to see which franchises follow MH to 3DS and which ones try and rebuild the market on Vita.

Not every Monster Hunter clone did well. We should also keep in mind that this isn't coming from a major publisher who has strong shipping power with retailers.

 

[Laguna]

Before Peace Walker was released, there were Metal Gear Acid 1+2, some UMD-Visual-Novels and Portable Ops (and Portable Ops +) to built up a fanbase. Revelation has Merceneries and will be released within 3DSs first year, just to point out the differences.

Fixed it up with a bit of research on Garaph.




The lowest a Fire Emblem games has done on a handheld is Sacred Stones at 236k, it would be a disappointment for that franchise to not sell around 250k.

Tekken will probably sell a little less than the PSP versions. Dynasty Warriors won't do that much better than the launch game, if at all.

After beeing called out for beeing to optimistic for the prior estimations I tried this time not to overestimate and to take into account the worst case scenario. I know that games like Fire Emblem, Resident Evil or even something like Theatrythm and Kid Icarus have the potential to sell more but this time I went more often then not with the smaller number. The numbers weren´t meant to be the ceiling.

 

[djplaeskool]

Not every Monster Hunter clone did well. We should also keep in mind that this isn't coming from a major publisher who has strong shipping power with retailers.

I'm trying to think of similar games that didn't do well besides Lord of Arcana.
Both the God Eater and Phantasy Star Portable games did pretty darn well for themselves.

I do worry about Ragnarok Odyssey, but from what I've seen so far, the game looks solid.
May kick that onto the import list if its localization remains in doubt.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I'm trying to think of similar games that didn't do well besides Lord of Arcana.
Both the God Eater and Phantasy Star Portable games did pretty darn well for themselves.

Konami's Fairy Tale games did average iirc. Arcana did great compared to Apocalypse.

 

[Spiegel]

I dunno about that. Before Peace Walker, Metal Gear Solid had Portable Ops. While there's a quality difference in game design and staff involved, I would say MPO is definitely the first real 3D MGS on portables, not PW.

Yeah, I'm talking about quality and budget. Portable Ops was a typical b-class spinoff, while Peace Walker and Revelations are undoubtedly much bigger efforts.

 

[duckroll]

I'm trying to think of similar games that didn't do well besides Lord of Arcana.
Both the God Eater and Phantasy Star Portable games did pretty darn well for themselves.

I do worry about Ragnarok Odyssey, but from what I've seen so far, the game looks solid.
May kick that onto the import list if its localization remains in doubt.

Valhalla Knights? White Knight Chronicles? I'm sure there are several which no one even thinks of because they've fallen through the cracks and no one remembers them.

It's always easy to remember the successful titles, for obvious reasons.

Yeah, I'm talking about quality and budget. Portable Ops was a typical b-class spinoff, while Peace Walker and Revelations are undoubtedly much bigger efforts.

I'm not sure we can make that claim for Revelations so confidently before it's even out. Maybe you forgot what it was like for Portable Ops when it was announced and released. It was definitely perceived as the "real thing" back then, when there is no better comparison to be made. In future if there's a better portable RE, the same thing could well happen.

 

[charlequin]

A better example would be comparing a hypothetical FFVII remake in terms of content and budget with something like FFXIII-2 or The Last Remnant. Does FFVII really have more areas, larger areas, and more enemies/bosses/etc compared to these games? I'll say it's pretty debatable.

FFVII probably doesn't have more areas than TLR, no, although I suspect the per-item cost of producing assets at the level needed for a compelling FF7R would be significantly higher.

But you're right, the big advantage FF7R would have would be a pre-defined asset map. Instead of faffing around for three years making map assets that don't even wind up in the game, they could just spend that time actually going through all the areas in FF7 and rebuilding them!