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[AniHawk]

i honestly don't see a world where nintendo tops the next generation. maybe in terms of consoles + handhelds, but if you're judging it that way, they came out on top during the n64/psx gen too.

their nearly two-decade problems with third parties persist, and the wii u is this weird thing that nintendo doesn't seem to know how to present. more than that, its online structure will lag behind its competition quite noticeably.

i think this is the gen where nintendo just can't keep up anymore. it'll start them on their path to the niche market they were originally destined for at the end of the gamecube generation.

 

[Canis lupus]

So can we give sales predictions too? If yes then:

PS4 90m
Nextbox 75m
WiiU 60m

 

[AniHawk]

So can we give sales predictions too? If yes then:

PS4 90m
Nextbox 75m
WiiU 60m

microsoft: 80m-90m
sony: 70m-80m
nintendo: 50m-60m

 

[Brad Grenz]

The PS3 shows how Sony felt about open standards in 2006. The Vita shows how they feel about open standards in 2012.

It mostly shows they would do what was required to get stores to stock a device where all games could be purchased digitally, and protect the work of publishers concerned by the pervasive hacking an piracy on the PSP. But it's not like Sony stopped supporting bluetooth, h.264, mp3s, jpgs, etc. They included a web browser, a bunch of apps for popular services and have created an avenue for homebrew on their system again. Portables, for many reasons, have fewer opportunities to support open standards than a stationary console. Besides, the original argument I was refuting was preposterous on its face: that Sony would try and introduce a new disc format with the PS4. There is literally no reason to believe that other than uninformed bias that flies in the face of so much evidence.

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

In this thread people fail to realise that the casual market is much larger than the core gamer market.

If your strongest IPs only appeal to a sub section of core gamers, you will fail.

 

[StuBurns]

I think PS4 will outsell XB8. WiiU will either come first or last, no idea.

 

[ThisWreckage]

Sony launching with a reasonably priced console will do wonders for them worldwide. Also, if they're able to launch within six months of the next Microsoft console it will tremendously benefit them as well. It amazes me that they climbed back in the race this generation. Launched a year later and the PS3 is still MORE than 200 bucks. Think about that for a second. The PS3 has been out how many years and the cheapest SKU is still more than 200 bucks. That is insane.

 

[L1NETT]

microsoft: 80m-90m
ps4: 70m-80m
wii u: 50m-60m

I think this is more likely to be honest.

Although the Wii U could do 90m or do 40m, I have no idea really.

 

[Roq12]

Not with that ugly controller, anyway.

I think it looks delicious!

 

[Mama Robotnik]

Man do some of you want Sony to die or something...

geez.

Well it is a Mama Robotnik thread.

GeoramA, please tell me how I am responsible for the varied opinions being posted in this thread. I've re-read the OP, just to make sure, and I can't see anything that encourages "Sony to die" - as a PS3 owner (and most recently a PSP owner!) this is hardly something I'd want. I look forward to your response.

 

[weepy]

I think Nintendo is going to get the more interesting games, it'll likely be cheaper to produce for so people will be more likely to take a risk. Microsoft and Sony will continue to get the big AAA games and not a whole lot else. All three get multi-platform games.

I...want to believe.

 

[Hindle]

I'm thinking Microsoft are going to become even more dominant next gen, all they really need is more new IP, and as they're working on that then yea I'll think they will dominate.

 

[ScreenSplitter]

I find it difficult to believe some of you think Nintendo will be so far behind in sales when they have at least a full year to themselves.

 

[AniHawk]

I find it difficult to believe some of you think Nintendo will be so far behind in sales when they have at least a full year to themselves.

i think they're sorta gonna blow their first year like they did with the 3ds. and this time they won't have anything to come to their rescue since they'll have used wii fit, nsmbu, and nintendo land right at the start.

 

[seady]

Valve => Android (Open and accessible, relatively new player that expands very fast)

Nintendo => iOS (Closed and mainstream, easy to use)

Microsoft => Window (Hardcore and niche, trying to play copy, catchup and expand)

Sony => Palm (Was once the most popular, now still loved by a small group of people)

 

[ScreenSplitter]

i think they're sorta gonna blow their first year like they did with the 3ds. and this time they won't have anything to come to their rescue since they'll have used wii fit, nsmbu, and nintendo land right at the start.

Well I think the fact that there's actually those three titles + Pikmin 3 at launch automatically make it better than the 3DS launch. NSMBU = sales.

 

[Pranay]

Everyone that is writing out a list: what the fuck are you talking about? Financially? Creatively? Influentially? These lists don't make much sense.

It's sad how much video game fans have internalized the console wars as if sales numbers resonate more personally than quality games.

Yup.

TBH we dont have really have any info to predict that who will have a great start, so its literally impossible to know who end up where.

Anyways i could just say that next gen will be close and a good start wont be good enough, its how the company maintain throughout the years will determine who comes at the top.

From the most recent E3, where are each of the companies going? Who are their respective markets?

What went wrong this generation, will they address the lessons learned?

How will developing trends like iOS, Android and Facebook games affect the big three?

How much money does each company have to risk? Have they proven to be adaptable to quickly changing markets, or are they stuck in their old ways?

What rumours are circulating, and which of them seem likely?

Which companies will rise, and which will fall?

Talking about Sony -

1-> Sony is going strong in pleasing the fans but they need to get the NA market back. The New PS3 releasing might play a role IMO.

2 -> Arrogance led to Sony downfall and they still are recovering from it along with horrible marketing and being late adaptive.

3-> They will be a part of the console.

4 -> Cant say

5 -> None. Would like a 199$ console with 15$ per month PS+ though

6 -> Hope all do well

 

[Seance]

My prediction is Ouya becomes a Big 4th.

I'm not even considering OUYA purely based on that gamepad. It's disgusting. Is that thing designed to be utilised by humans?

 

[Log4Girlz]

All will be in deep shit and will need to release new consoles as the market for their current machines dry up. You know, like the end of every generation.

 

[rCIZZLE]

Sony will have the best quality games, again, if they can keep the financial problems from effecting the gaming division.

Other than that I see it being close to a tie between all 3 in terms of console sales.

 

[MrCookiepants]

Microsoft is utterly incapable of creating popular new IP, so if for some reason they lose the third parties they won't have a chance in hell next gen.

That's the only certainty. Everything else is up in the air.

 

[Combichristoffersen]

Sony will be doomed.
Nintendo will be doomed.
Microsoft will drop out of the console business.
Apple wins.

Spoiler

Nintendo will be fine.
Microsoft will be fine, unless they mess up big time.
Sony will probably drop out if they mess up the PS4 too.
Apple still wins.

 

[Baron_Calamity]

It's impossible to make a reasonable prediction at this date. I would like to see some sort of shake up of the industry. Basically its been Sony vs Nintendo vs Microsoft for over a decade now and they seem very set in their ways. Nintendo tries to innovate but always aims for the low end of the hardware spectrum. Sony creates a great design that never sees its full potential. Microsoft really doesn't care about gaming as much as finding a way to dominate the living room.

If nothing changes, by the end of the next generation, all three will be roughly tied with world wide installed base.
1. Microsoft - Sony - Nintendo


Sony and Microsoft will lead in terms of software sold but I'm giving the edge to Sony. I have nothing to back it up but it sounds like of the three, Sony is working more closely with developers this time around. Nintendi WiiU will still have games, some of them great, but the typical Nintendo customer just buys fewer games.

1. Sony
2. Microsoft
3. Nintendo

As for creativity, My only gut feeling is Microsoft will be last. Looking at Sony vs Microsoft, both systems will get all the third party games, but Sony will have more and better exclusives. Nintendo will keep its edge as far as thinking up new ways to game but I think their long development times, and playing it safe in terms of themes will hold them back.

1. Sony
2. Nintendo
3. Microsoft

I don't see any of the three backing down or getting out of the console business. Their business models and objectives are all different at this point. The only thing that might happen is if two of the big 3 teams up. That would be a game changer.

 

[Pranay]

Microsoft is utterly incapable of creating popular new IP, so if for some reason they lose the third parties they won't have a chance in hell next gen.

That's the only certainty. Everything else is up in the air.

MS can and they will.

They will do it when the time comes.

However Paying for Live, India Dev complaining about the policies of live etc/

_____________________________________________________________________________

I think Nintendo is going to get the more interesting games, it'll likely be cheaper to produce for so people will be more likely to take a risk. Microsoft and Sony will continue to get the big AAA games and not a whole lot else. All three get multi-platform games.

Sony has doing currently what you think nintendo is gonna do.

 

[Canis lupus]

i think they're sorta gonna blow their first year like they did with the 3ds. and this time they won't have anything to come to their rescue since they'll have used wii fit, nsmbu, and nintendo land right at the start.

I agree.

 

[Tenki]

Sony will start charging for online, like MS does for XBL.

Worldwide: Wii U > Xbox > PS4
Japan: Wii U > PS4 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Xbox

Xbox will be "cheap", but with a contract, so it's not so cheap anymore.

One or both from PS4 and Xbox will have a screen on the controller.

One of the big three will get out of the hardware market, likely Sony.

Ouya is not even a competitor.

I'm happy with my consoles this gen, so I'll probably end up buying Wii U first and Xbox second (likely both at launch).

 

[GopherD]

i think they're sorta gonna blow their first year like they did with the 3ds. and this time they won't have anything to come to their rescue since they'll have used wii fit, nsmbu, and nintendo land right at the start.

I disagree. Nintendo will be saving big guns to try and disrupt the HD launches next year. Its first year will be Nintendo fans buying the thing anyway. But whatever they can bring to bear will be done for Christmas 2013.

This time next year will be massively epic. Two HD launches at Christmas, with the usual glut of launch games. Sony will have first party exclusives out the wazoo, MS will have a few and buy some third party properties as well, Nintendo will save its biggest IP to up against it.

EPIC I tells ya.

 

[sublimit]

Microsoft is utterly incapable of creating popular new IP, so if for some reason they lose the third parties they won't have a chance in hell next gen.

That's the only certainty. Everything else is up in the air.

Microsoft will continue doing fine just with the IPs they already have and by continuing bying timed-exclusives,demos and exclusive DLC from third parties.

They don't really need new IPs.

 

[Snipes424]

I think Microsoft will do great. They will probably go after one game (Call of Duty) and all other media. Microsoft will have the lowest quality available games out of the three but they will still come out on top.

This will be a "holdout" generation for Nintendo. I think they will make enough money to carry on into the next one but I don't see them coming in first place again.

Sony will come in second about 2/3 the install base of the 720 despite having the best quality games available out of the three.

 

[GopherD]

Sony will start charging for online, like MS does for XBL.

No they won't. They will have an opt-in system such as a ramped-up PS+ that offers much more services, but core multiplayer gaming will always be free with Sony.

 

[Canis lupus]

Sony will start charging for online, like MS does for XBL.

Worldwide: Wii U > Xbox > PS4
Japan: Wii U > PS4 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Xbox

Xbox will be "cheap", but with a contract, so it's not so cheap anymore.

One or both from PS4 and Xbox will have a screen on the controller.

One of the big three will get out of the hardware market, likely Sony.

Ouya is not even a competitor.

I'm happy with my consoles this gen, so I'll probably end up buying Wii U first and Xbox second (likely both at launch).

I won't mind being charged for PSN as long as it has a basic PS+ model.

What you mean Xbox will be cheap? You mean like the $99 xbox? I don't think it made a huge difference.

PS4 controller will definetly not have a screen on the controller, they already have the Vita that can be used for such utilities.

I don't think Sony or any one of them will get out of the competition.

 

[Snowden's Secret]

It's hard to really get a feel for these things when so much is unknown (we know basically nothing about Microsoft or Sony, and may as well know nothing about Nintendo lol). It appears that the general consensus is that if MS or Sony just come with a box that's simply more HD than the last they aren't going to beat Nintendo, but who says they are going to do that? Maybe one or both will have some incredible new interface that dominates/disrupts the market.

 

[Lachie007]

i honestly don't see a world where nintendo tops the next generation. maybe in terms of consoles + handhelds, but if you're judging it that way, they came out on top during the n64/psx gen too.

their nearly two-decade problems with third parties persist, and the wii u is this weird thing that nintendo doesn't seem to know how to present. more than that, its online structure will lag behind its competition quite noticeably.

i think this is the gen where nintendo just can't keep up anymore. it'll start them on their path to the niche market they were originally destined for at the end of the gamecube generation.

I disagree, respectively of course.

nintendo have had problems with 3rd parties since forever and they've been successful. Why would this somehow change next generation. They sold almost a 100 million wiis without online support. Getting wii u into shopping centres and into the hands of hands of people will the be the key to its success.

Nintendo and niche just dont go together

 

[Tenki]

What you mean Xbox will be cheap? You mean like the $99 xbox? I don't think it made a huge difference.

PS4 controller will definetly not have a screen on the controller, they already have the Vita that can be used for such utilities.

Yes, I mean something like the $99 Xbox. Imagine Xbox 720 is $449. They can offer the console at $99 and then have a contract with a monthly fee.

Not everyone has a Vita. And of course it's not as cheap as a controller.

 

[Bidermaier]

Microsoft will dissappoint their hardcore gamers

Spoiler

again

Wii U, not the Ouya, will become the indie console.
Playstation 4 will be the closer platform to the PC, it will be a bit like the original XBOX. A lot of good PC ports and maybe even steam services merging the Playstation Network.

 

[Pranay]

It's hard to really get a feel for these things when so much is unknown (we know basically nothing about Microsoft or Sony, and may as well know nothing about Nintendo lol). It appears that the general consensus is that if MS or Sony just come with a box that's simply more HD than the last they aren't going to beat Nintendo, but who says they are going to do that? Maybe one or both will have some incredible new interface that dominates/disrupts the market.

i hope this happens

 

[triggaz]

No they won't. They will have an opt-in system such as a ramped-up PS+ that offers much more services, but core multiplayer gaming will always be free with Sony.

Why do you say this?

 

[ScreenSplitter]

Why do you say this?

Because it's profitable to give away free downloadable stuff for a paid subscription, and actually pretty good for the consumer too. Charging for borderline basic stuff that is available everywhere else is stupid as fuck, and the consumers will realise it of Microsoft in the end.

 

[Pranay]

Why do you say this?

Cause its currently a sucessful model ?

 

[GlamFM]

1. Microsoft
2. Nintendo
3. Sony

I think with Nintendo and Sony it could go either way. The WiiU could fail and Sony could fail as a company. I hope not of course.

 

[Celine]

It's impossible to make a reasonable prediction at this date.

/thread.

 

[McHuj]

IMO, next gen is such a toss up.

No idea if the WiiU will be successful. With the Wii, it looked fresh and there was a lot of buzz about it in the nongaming press. I see nothing like that yet.

I think Sony could retake the crown if they release next year, if they hold off and try to milk the PS3, I think they could fuck themselves because I think they'll lose Japan and the US then.

Microsoft could coast to first place, but I think they could totally fuckup as well by not focusing on games enough and trying to be a media device first.

If PS4 releases next year:

1. Sony
2. MS
3. Nintendo

If no PS4 next year
1. MS
2. Nintendo
3. Sony

Yes, I think the decision when to release PS4 can be the difference between first and last place.

 

[TheExodu5]

It's not a given, but I kind of hope Sony drops out of the hardware race. As it stands, their 1st party software is mostly what keeps me buying their hardware, so I'd far sooner see them focusing on this, and drop out of the hardware business where the majority of their losses occur.

 

[MrCookiepants]

Microsoft will continue doing fine just with the IPs they already have and by continuing bying timed-exclusives,demos and exclusive DLC from third parties.

They don't really need new IPs.

That kind of business isn't sustainable. Third parties need to want their games on the system. If Microsoft find themselves in a Gamecube/Wii situation, no amount of money will bail them out.

Third party support is what decides each console generation. And we have no way of knowing where it will go at this point. I'm just saying. If Microsoft is the one that fucks up next gen, they'll have a harder time getting back in the game than the other two. They need more of their own IPs to fall back on.

 

[Mandoric]

I think Microsoft will do great. They will probably go after one game (Call of Duty) and all other media. Microsoft will have the lowest quality available games out of the three but they will still come out on top.

This will be a "holdout" generation for Nintendo. I think they will make enough money to carry on into the next one but I don't see them coming in first place again.

Sony will come in second about 2/3 the install base of the 720 despite having the best quality games available out of the three.

Out of curiosity, why do you think Sony will do so much worse than this gen? A $699 launch?

 

[ScreenSplitter]

Microsoft's dominance on third party was mainly due to Sony's folly, getting the PS3 out late and apparently being difficult to develop for. In later years they just seem to be moneyhatting Bethesda and Activision, and I don't know how long that can last.

 

[Pranay]

It's not a given, but I kind of hope Sony drops out of the hardware race. As it stands, their 1st party software is mostly what keeps me buying their hardware, so I'd far sooner see them focusing on this, and drop out of the hardware business where the majority of their losses occur.

That something which i really never want to happen.

While their hardware did took a loss this year due to many factors, they had make it profitable over the last 2 years.

I think TV business aside, They will turn around most of their devices upwards but slowly.

Sony mobile has been on a rise ever since they got rid of ericcion and made a standard brand "Xperia" and make a well built device with latest andriod updates.

They are also launching Xperia Nexus which will do great.

They only need to recapture the NA Market where they have lost a lot of ground.

 

[TheExodu5]

While their hardware did took a loss this year due to many factors, they had make it profitable over the last 2 years.

Yes, it is currently profitable, but over the generation, the PS3 has lost them quite a bit of money, AFAIK.

I feel Sony has some of the most talented development houses in the world. I want to see them go on no matter what happens to Sony. I feel like focusing on software is the best chance for that.

Wishful thinking, mainly. They might still focus on hardware, but their track record isn't very good, which worries me.

 

[SolarPowered]

i think they're sorta gonna blow their first year like they did with the 3ds. and this time they won't have anything to come to their rescue since they'll have used wii fit, nsmbu, and nintendo land right at the start.

I never thought of it that way. It really is a gamble. They don't seem to have anything huge for a "worst case" scenario.

 

[Mandoric]

Yes, it is currently profitable, but over the generation, the PS3 has lost them quite a bit of money, AFAIK.

R&D + launch was extremely expensive; launch units cost about $500 over MSRP to produce.
Assuming a 2013 PS4 launch, we're already in the range where similar money-burning would show up in financials, and it hasn't yet, which suggests a better initial footing.