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[Jezbollah]

People claiming it's the UK being a poor market are seriously kidding themselves. I really do think the PS4/720 will sell pretty decently. Y'all need to realise the Wii's sales were a fad blip that will probably never be re-captured by any device that's not a tablet.

Anecdotal as it may be I know plenty of people who are excited about next-gen, I don't know a single person either owns a Wii-U or cares about it.

+1.

PS4 and the new MS console will sell much, much better.

It's not an issue with strength of market, as much as it is weakness of Wii U product portfolio.

 

[grimshawish]

The idea there was no crossover and the PS360 over the years is plain spurious.

A lot of money has fallen out of the UK market.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Not at all true if the games are good. People overestimate the impact of graphics on GAF.

I think the ones who know what they are talking about estimate precisely how important graphics can be. There are some who overestimate but those are usually the ones who drive by to look at screens and just say OMG.

The impact of good graphics can make a game better. To which extent is up to the individual.

 

[metalslimer]

So I did a few calculations with these figures.

Total sales Jan 2012 - 2778
Total sales Jan 2013 - 2111

Market decrease of 26%

Now let's look at the detail.

Nintendo vs non-Nintendo:

Total Nintendo platform sales in Jan 2012 - 999k
Total non-Nintendo platform sales in Jan 2012 - 1779k

Total Nintendo platform sales in Jan 2013 - 467k
Total non-Nintendo platform sales in Jan 2013 - 1644k

Nintendo YoY decrease - 53.3%
Non-Nintendo YoY decrease - 7.6%
Non-Nintendo YoY decrease consoles only - 3.5%

So, is it the UK market that's dead, or Nintendo that's dead in the UK?

I hope this myth that gaming is dead in the UK ceases to exist, it's Nintendo that are in serious decline. A new generation of consoles from Sony and MS would more than fix the current problems for their own decline.

Ouch, on the other hand it shows just how much growth this generation came directly from Nintendo so when they declined they took like half the market with them.

 

[Berg]

Wonder what the Digital numbers are.

 

[Portugeezer]

34k, what the fuck they buying?

 

[fabricated backlash]

Wonder what the Digital numbers are.

In the low teens.

 

[Pie and Beans]

The idea there was no crossover and the PS360 over the years is plain spurious.

A lot of money has fallen out of the UK market.

One year the Wii was the must have fad "thing", now its the affordable tablet. Mass-market fad money went in that direction leaving the hardcore game market trucking along as per normal -- dipping and awaiting the next-gen consoles. A stark example has been made of the WiiU with it not being considered a new generation at all by the hardcore market at large.

This is the danger of riding your company on short-term casual fad audiences. They're fickle as fuck unless you find a way to corral and keep them gated in -- iOS and Android ecosystems across platforms is a great example.

 

[Derrick01]

Seems like Nintendo's finally paying the price for their long-time incompetence. It had to catch up to them some time.

 

[Bumhead]

What the fuck are people playing in the UK right now?

PS3 and 360 games.

Games for the systems they either already own, or are buying for the first time now because the value proposition is sky high over the Wii U.

Those sales of boxed retail PC games are interestingly high, relative to other consoles and particularly handhelds. Are we becoming a country of core PC gamers? Hopefully.

The "PS4 and 720 will surely do just as bad" argument continues to be quite amusing. There is of course a chance at least one of those systems, maybe even both, won't hit it out of the gate right away, but some people are talking about that like it's a guarantee. Maybe it's Wii U owners hoping both systems fail so it dampens the spectacular failure of the console they bought, who knows.

 

[Mileena]

Wonder what the Digital numbers are.

Probably worse than Vitas.

 

[StuBurns]

I really think people are overreacting to the Wii U situation. Of course no one wants one, there's nothing to play. Wait for the Mario Karts, and Smash Bros, and 3D Marios, and Zeldas. It will pick up. They're not losing third parties during the wait, they never had them anyway.

 

[BadWolf]

One year the Wii was the must have fad "thing", now its the affordable tablet. Mass-market fad money went in that direction leaving the hardcore game market trucking along as per normal.

This is the danger of riding your company on short-term casual fad audiences. They're fickle as fuck unless you find a way to corral and keep them gated in -- iOS and Android ecosystems across platforms is a great example.

Pretty much.

Nintendo themselves realised this and tried to aim for core gamers with the WiiU.

 

[grimshawish]

Problem is Pie I doubt Nintendo would have done that well without the Wii. They took what they could in the moment.

 

[Plinko]

I think the ones who know what they are talking about estimate precisely how important graphics can be. There are some who overestimate but those are usually the ones who drive by to look at screens and just say OMG.

The impact of good graphics can make a game better. To which extent is up to the individual.

I agree with you completely, but I feel that GAF as a whole tends to overplay the technical angle a bit. We're seeing a prime example of that with Vita's failure.

Obviously, as we're seeing with Wii U, there are ditches on both sides.

 

[Aostia]

not so surprising considering the low install base and the poor new releases after the launch...they need to put out games more often

 

[Pie and Beans]

Problem is Pie I doubt Nintendo would have done that well without the Wii. They took what they could in the moment.

Great if you're a bubble-riding company that wants to live 5-10 years and cash out. Not so good if you're in for the long-haul and decided to expand in all the wrong directions and sacrifice a whole market while doing so.

Futures not too bleak though provided Nintendo goes all in on one powerful portable platform with different sized sku's (portable and pad), but home-console wise this is the end of the line.

 

[Plinko]

I really think people are overreacting to the Wii U situation. Of course no one wants one, there's nothing to play. Wait for the Mario Karts, and Smash Bros, and 3D Marios, and Zeldas. It will pick up. They're not losing third parties during the wait, they never had them anyway.

It's grim right now, that can't be denied. That said, I find it humorous that all of this conversation is happening a mere 2 1/2 months after what appears to be a horribly planned launch. They've easily got time to turn it around.

IF they can drop the price this upcoming holiday and have a Mario Kart and 3D Mario game releasing as well (as it appears they are going to), they could easily market themselves as a cheaper alternative to what are going to be consoles probably priced $400 and above.

 

[Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew]

And then people blame Ubisoft for making their game multiplatform.

 

[Bedlam]

I really think people are overreacting to the Wii U situation. Of course no one wants one, there's nothing to play. Wait for the Mario Karts, and Smash Bros, and 3D Marios, and Zeldas. It will pick up. They're not losing third parties during the wait, they never had them anyway.

It's going to become worse for the WiiU once Sony and MS have announced their next-gen consoles. Sure, the occasional Mario/Zelda title will sell well but that's about it. It's the Wii all over again - but this time without the huge casual audience.

 

[Shion]

Nintendo themselves realised this and tried to aim for core gamers with the WiiU.

Not really.

 

[BadWolf]

I agree with you completely, but I feel that GAF as a whole tends to overplay the technical angle a bit. We're seeing a prime example of that with Vita's failure.

Obviously, as we're seeing with Wii U, there are ditches on both sides.

Even though the 3DS is the weaker of the two it is still more powerful than the handhelds of of the previous generation. Same thing with the PS2.

 

[Zia]

Have you ever made something that sold 34K? No? Didn't think so.

Well, yes.

 

[Portugeezer]

It's grim right now, that can't be denied. That said, I find it humorous that all of this conversation is happening a mere 2 1/2 months after what appears to be a horribly planned launch. They've easily got time to turn it around.

That's the only thing I don't understand from some of the reactions.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I really think people are overreacting to the Wii U situation. Of course no one wants one, there's nothing to play. Wait for the Mario Karts, and Smash Bros, and 3D Marios, and Zeldas. It will pick up. They're not losing third parties during the wait, they never had them anyway.

The problem is, while I'm sure those titles you listed will help in some way, equivalent titles were available on the GCN.

I think while Nintendo's first party is certainly very strong, it's strength is often overstated. It cannot carry a home console system alone as some (not directed at you) seem to think.

And that they seemingly lack third party support is a major issue, because first parties cannot carry a system alone.

 

[zoukka]

Goddamn. I hope they quickly hit panic mode and beef up the OS and moneyhat some fucking games on their system.

It's not like I want to see them fail completely. Just enough to wake them up. Next gen would be miserable with only sony and microsoft.

 

[Plinko]

And then people blame Ubisoft for making their game multiplatform.

Sorry, but what Ubisoft did to that dev team was inexcusable. I'll never say what they did was right.

It's going to become worse for the WiiU once Sony and MS have announced their next-gen consoles. Sure, the occasional Mario/Zelda title will sell well but that's about it.

As I stated above, I don't believe this to be 100% true. It may happen, but if Nintendo markets it correctly, they can really go all out.

If they can drop the price of the Wii U they could put out a bundle with the new Mario Kart for even cheaper than the new Sony/MS console. That could be a huge draw for families this holiday.

 

[BadWolf]

Can they even enter a 3DS-like panic mode?

Doing a price drop soon after launch for two systems in a row sets a pretty damn bad precedent.

 

[madmackem]

I agree with you completely, but I feel that GAF as a whole tends to overplay the technical angle a bit. We're seeing a prime example of that with Vita's failure.

Obviously, as we're seeing with Wii U, there are ditches on both sides.

The vita is a handheld gfx in handhelds arnt as important. But for a home console they are, its the big selling point look how much better this looks to what it was like before, you couldnt see that on wiiu.

 

[Plinko]

That's the only thing I don't understand from some of the reactions.

Well, it's like we've been seeing in the NPD threads. Anything not selling like the original Wii and GBA/DS is deemed an instant failure by people, which is ludicrous. All of those launched in a world without iOS, tablets, and smartphones. Totally different world.

I still predict that the new MS/Sony consoles will have poor launch numbers, too. Not as bad as Wii U (as core gamers will tend to buy these right off the bat), but after that market gets filled the sales will probably drop just as badly as Wii U.

 

[Visualante2]

Nintendo just caught themselves in a rough "transitional period" for the industry.

 

[Plinko]

The vita is a handheld gfx in handhelds arnt as important. But for a home console they are, its the big selling point look how much better this looks to what it was like before, you couldnt see that on wiiu.

Are you purposely ignoring the Wii?

 

[Burai]

One year the Wii was the must have fad "thing", now its the affordable tablet. Mass-market fad money went in that direction leaving the hardcore game market trucking along as per normal -- dipping and awaiting the next-gen consoles. A stark example has been made of the WiiU with it not being considered a new generation at all by the hardcore market at large.

This is the danger of riding your company on short-term casual fad audiences. They're fickle as fuck unless you find a way to corral and keep them gated in -- iOS and Android ecosystems across platforms is a great example.

Another thing to consider is Kinect. Essentially Nintendo spent the last two years doing nothing with the Wii. In the meantime, Xbox 360 has dropped to a reasonable price, is a step up in power, has hundreds of games and Kinect is the next logical step on from the Wii remote and far more attractive to the Just Dance/Wii Sports/Wii Fit market than the Gamepad.

To all intents and purposes, Xbox 360 + Kinect is Wii 2. Nintendo weren't a necessary part of the equation.

 

[BadWolf]

Well, it's like we've been seeing in the NPD threads. Anything not selling like the original Wii and GBA/DS is deemed an instant failure by people, which is ludicrous. All of those launched in a world without iOS, tablets, and smartphones. Totally different world.

I still predict that the new MS/Sony consoles will have poor launch numbers, too. Not as bad as Wii U (as core gamers will tend to buy these right off the bat), but after that market gets filled the sales will probably drop just as badly as Wii U.

PS360 sold over 70 million each right? I think the PS4/720 will be cool with that.

 

[Portugeezer]

Can they even enter a 3DS-like panic mode?

Doing a price drop soon after launch for two systems in a row sets a pretty damn bad precedent.

Nintendo is already losing money per Wii U sold, they won't drop the price.

Iwata is right, they have to give a clearer message of what Wii U offers, not just slashing prices.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Another thing to consider is Kinect. Essentially Nintendo spent the last two years doing nothing with the Wii. In the meantime, Xbox 360 has dropped to a reasonable price, is a step up in power, has hundreds of games and Kinect is the next logical step on from the Wii remote and far more attractive to the Just Dance/Wii Sports/Wii Fit market than the Gamepad.

To all intents and purposes, Xbox 360 + Kinect is Wii 2. Nintendo weren't a necessary part of the equation.

Let us not so easily forget our Minor Marketing Effect of the Year Award in Christmas sales sensation that was WONDERBOOK.

It's grim right now, that can't be denied. That said, I find it humorous that all of this conversation is happening a mere 2 1/2 months after what appears to be a horribly planned launch. They've easily got time to turn it around.

We essentially have a good read on a whole half a year of release schedules barring some insane Sega-Saturn/Excitebots tricksies. Things are only going to get worse, and it remains to be seen exactly how much a shit the market will give about MOAR MARIO when thats all Nintendo's been pumping into the market of late anyway.

 

[shinra-bansho]

All of those launched in a world without iOS, tablets, and smartphones. Totally different world.

For dedicated handhelds, sure.

The GFC may have also impacted the gaming market as a whole as well going forward.

But I still fail to see how there's a significant overlap between the traditional home console gaming market and iDevices and Android devices.

Substitutes can certainly threaten a product in any market - but a tablet or smartphone doesn't provide a substitute for products aimed at the traditional home console gaming market.

 

[dead monkey uk]

What the fuck are people playing in the UK right now?

Well if my friends list is any indication then FIFA and COD and not much else.

 

[Haunted]

34k, what the fuck they buying?

Seriously.


There are like three exclusive games worth playing on the system, and everyone I know has long finished with those.

 

[Plinko]

PS360 sold over 70 million each right? I think the PS4/720 will be cool with that.

I'm sure they will. They'd go nuts for it. That doesn't mean the Wii U couldn't be successful as well.

I was just arguing that the Wii U is a system that isn't appearing to be marketed directly at core gamers. As a result, core gamers don't rush out and buy it day one like they will MS/Sony consoles.

 

[AColdDay]

Genuinely worried about the future of the console at this point. Third party support feels like it is going to be worse than their last two consoles.

This is both completely unbelievable and totally accurate.

 

[Plinko]

We essentially have a good read on a whole half a year of release schedules barring some insane Sega-Saturn/Excitebots tricksies. Things are only going to get worse, and it remains to be seen exactly how much a shit the market will give about MOAR MARIO when thats all Nintendo's been pumping into the market of late anyway.

I'll argue that Mario Kart is a MUCH bigger draw than any 2D/3D Mario game nowadays. If that releases this upcoming holiday, all bets are off. If it releases and Nintendo STILL has terrible sales? Yeah, it's over for Wii U.

 

[Plinko]

For dedicated handhelds, sure.

The GFC may have also impacted the gaming market as a whole as well going forward.

But I still fail to see how there's a significant overlap between the traditional home console gaming market and iDevices and Android devices.

Substitutes can certainly threaten a product in any market - but a tablet or smartphone doesn't provide a substitute for products aimed at the traditional home console gaming market.

It's all about time spent. You can't do two things at once.

 

[Striek]

Nintendo is already losing money per Wii U sold, they won't drop the price.

They will definitely drop the price this year. They might be losing money, but they'll lose more money in the long run if the system keeps declining and they never manage to build momentum, lose all support (publisher and retail) never succeeds as a platform (this was also their argument for such a huge price drop for the 3DS). They only reason they mightn't do it sooner than later is theres no compelling new releases coming for a while.

 

[Lovely Salsa]

Nintendo should just go 3rd party.

No point in releasing consoles with last gen tech and no 3rd party support

 

[x-Lundz-x]

Nintendo should just go 3rd party.

No point in releasing consoles with last gen tech and no 3rd party support

I would love this but it's not going to happen.

 

[Lovely Salsa]

Nintendo is already losing money per Wii U sold, they won't drop the price.

No way they're losing money in europe

 

[StuBurns]

The problem is, while I'm sure those titles you listed will help in some way, equivalent titles were available on the GCN.

I think while Nintendo's first party is certainly very strong, it's strength is often overstated. It cannot carry a home console system alone as some (not directed at you) seem to think.

And that they seemingly lack third party support is a major issue, because first parties cannot carry a system alone.

I guess it depends what they're hoping for. The Wii was a special random crazy thing for them, it caught in the public interest, and the casual game thing, it sold incredibly well for them, but the GC didn't bomb. It came third of four, sure, but it made Nintendo money. I don't think the users were hurt by it's softer sales either. If the Wii U only sells forty million units over the next eight years, it's not some unthinkable tragedy at all, right?

And I'm not trying to spin for Nintendo, I don't care much either way, they're going to give me a Zelda, and Bayonetta 2, and if I never touch it outside of those, I'll be fine with that, but I don't think the average Wii U owner is going to be negatively impacted by the system not matching the Wii in sales, and I don't think Nintendo will be either.

 

[zroid]

WOW

 

[shinra-bansho]

It's all about time spent. You can't do two things at once.

Care to elaborate further rather than state the obvious.

Yes, I can't drive my car, nor play football, nor go to the movies while playing my PS3.

I can't play Angry Birds in a waiting room while playing a 3DS or VITA.

That's all well and good.

I also can't get GTAV on a Galaxy Note or COD BLOPS2 on an iPhone.

How exactly have smartphones and tablets consequently changed the world with regard to home consoles? How are they direct substitutes in the same way that they are towards dedicated handhelds?