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[Bricky]

´Nintendoomed!´ all over again, and then the Zeldas and Metroids and Marios came and everyone was happy again and Nintendo made all the moneys in 2014. The end.

I'm kinda serious though: the Wii U just needs some time before it will be profitable, just like with the 3DS. And even IF the Wii U ends up failing I still think Nintendo will be allright. Sony is the only console-maker who's really in trouble at the moment.

 

[hachi]

The fact that his way of thinking is likely very representative of your average shareholder should make us all wary of the short-sightedness and current-trend obsessions of the market. I wish Nintendo would use its reserves to buy out its own stock and go fully private, more like Valve. Investors all around are imbeciles when it comes to predicting the shape of future tech or entertainment; those are skills that tend to be somewhat incommensurable with the career path of those who end up in investment.

 

[cyberheater]

He's not wrong about WiiU bombing though.

How well it recovers is entirely up to Nintendo and giving that the new HD twins is just around the corner and that Nintendo won't be showing anything really significant until E3. Yeah. I do think it's going to continue to tank.

 

[Ken Masters]

What Patcher said about the Vita then ?


And really ?
NEVER RECOVER FROM ???

The 3ds is starting to sell like hotcakes, specialy the software .... they are recovering the WiiU problems like right now =P

I did pick up paper Mario for $20, does that count?

 

[NeededSleep]

"Great games, unique to the platform, would be a very good start," Baird analyst Colin Sebastian told GamesBeat.

"Games, games, and more games," IDC research manager Lewis Ward told GamesBeat.


We should be quoting these guys and giving them more attention instead of Pachter.

Seriously.

 

[sono]

Is it me or is Patcher a bit extremist.

See also: 240fps

 

[Stark]

Well, he is an Analyst...so he is supposed to analyse what happens and then say something. I don't get the hate/dislike for Pachter. (not directed at you)

Exactly a prediction/analyse is not set in stone. Things change.

 

[-COOLIO-]

Thanks, Pachter, you just confirmed that Wii U will be the market leader...

this joke is so tired

 

[Plinko]

He's not wrong about WiiU bombing though.

How well it recovers is entirely up to Nintendo and giving that the new HD twins is just around the corner and that Nintendo won't be showing anything really significant until E3. Yeah. I do think it's going to continue to tank.

Nobody is debating that Wii U is failing right now. That's not what this thread is about.

 

[Perkel]

and like three months ago this same guy was saying the Wii U would be a huge success

First post etc.

What cannibalization from mobile market when 3DS is selling like hotcakes and most of heavy hitters will come in months ?

Wishful thinking. Nintendo did release two unsuccessful consoles in row and still were in good shape.

 

[peanutbutterlatte]

I think they're doing okay on the handheld front. I think the WiiU is a fixable situation. It will never reach Wii numbers though, just like the 3DS will never reach DS numbers, and I'm sure that this will be debated a lot before people realize that it's okay not to do that well. But I mean, they're not even doing okay right now.

The sooner they get titles like Pikmin 3 and Wii Fit U on the console side and Pokémon games and titles like Animal Crossing: New Leaf on the 3DS side on store shelves, the better."

This I agree with of course, but it's nothing that someone with even a limited understanding of Nintendo couldn't point out, and nothing this man should be getting paid money for.

 

[Silver_DNA]

The company had a lackluster first few months mostly because of a lack of compelling software. This has happened before and will cool down once the software library grows bit more. We may see a few more months of lower than expected sales numbers but I believe it will grow when the games come out.

Does Mr. Pachter even think in long term forecasts?

 

[King Of Fuh]

Well, he is an Analyst...so he is supposed to analyse what happens and then say something. I don't get the hate/dislike for Pachter. (not directed at you)

Wii U is selling really terribly right now.

Analysing.....

Analysing....

I guess Nintendo made a mistake.



I wish my job was that easy.

 

[Wizman23]

God, this guy really needs to shut up and actually think about what he's saying.

Really? Because what he is saying here sounds pretty much spot on.

 

[Baconsammy]

He continues to say things like "It's just not that different from the other two [existing] consoles, and the gameplay isn't as unique as the Wii", so I wonder what will, in his mind, Sony and MS do to show their consoles are so much different from their previous consoles?

Are visuals enough in his mind or do they need new controllers and other general concepts?

People don't constantly upgrade their PC's video cards because they expect new experiences. Graphics mean a lot, to a lot of people. Same reason people keep buying higher higher res phones/tablets.

 

[A Human Becoming]

and like three months ago this same guy was saying the Wii U would be a huge success

Did he really? That doesn't sound like Pachter.

 

[bearythebear]

Meh, just release Mario Kart and SSB, and the console is safe.

 

[cyberheater]

Nobody is debating that Wii U is failing right now. That's not what this thread is about.

I did say that I agreed with the analysis that it's going to continue to tank. I think it's going to be a flop for Nintendo. A huge flop. Mario and Zelda will not save it.

 

[bill0527]

and like three months ago this same guy was saying the Wii U would be a huge success

Well in his defense, he was bullish about its prospects. He predicted sales of twice what they ended up being for January.

He was so wrong, it looks like he has decided to run completely in the other direction.

 

[MikeE21286]

Did he really? That doesn't sound like Pachter.

He said it would sell out (basically) through the first two quarters of 2012.

When he was asked later about this (recently) he stated that he overestimated the hardcore Nintendo fan-base.

 

[Coolwhip]

Wii U isn't making any sales projections. Pachter makes the BOLD preditions based on it again. This guy is so predictable, I really don't understand why his opinion is held highly.

 

[AZ Greg]

Meh, just release Mario Kart and SSB, and the console is safe.

Like the N64 and GC?

 

[kingofthedead45]

"may" Clever word choice. LOL Oh Pach, stay gold.

 

[markatisu]

Pikmin and Wii Fit aren't going to save the Wii U, but a consistent series of releases will and perhaps maybe if they gave a shit about third parties their own weak first party efforts so far wouldn't have been so glaring.

Depends on what needs to be saved, it won't require much if Nintendo just wants to salvage things and break even. If they want to equal the ungodly Wii sales they used to have I can't see any combo making that happen

Hotcakes eh? DS never had a worse month than 3DS just had, and it had the luxury of a 5 week measuring period. Software and hardware sales way down in the West from the prior year. He's using actual facts to back his analysis up this time.

Sony would love to have the "problems" the 3DS is having

 

[IcyRhythms]

Did he really? That doesn't sound like Pachter.

 

[alfredofroylan]

Like the N64 and GC?

Great consoles, none of them were the #1 seller but still made money, and have awesome games.

 

[x-Lundz-x]

They think Wii Fit U is going to save the Wii U? You mean the millions of people who purchased Wii Fit, used it twice and then shoved it aside and going to be jumping hand over fist to buy a new Wii U and Wii Fit U?

LOL

That fad as passed. They need core games, like right now, to save their asses with this system. The casual Wii Fit people who were interested in the Wii have no interest in the Wii U. The people waiting for 3D Mario and Zelda are interested in the Wii U, that is who they need to appeal too right now.

 

[Bisnic]

I love how GAF has been saying for the past weeks how the Wii U is looking more and more like a "failure" or at least something that is going to have a lot of trouble, but the moment Pachter say the same thing, everyone spit on him.

 

[Baconsammy]

Not sure why people assume that Wii Fit U will suddenly make an unattractive console attractive. The first did so well because the Wii itself was coveted.

Depends on what needs to be saved, it won't require much if Nintendo just wants to salvage things and break even. If they want to equal the ungodly Wii sales they used to have I can't see any combo making that happen



Sony would love to have the "problems" the 3DS is having

Sony has one successful device. Nintendo's struggling with 2. I don't think Sony would love for the PS3 or PS4 to also struggle. Especially in the West.

 

[Branduil]

That's a relief. It's good to know Nintendo will bounce back stronger than ever.

In all seriousness, the Wii U is in trouble, but I think there's a long way to go before Nintendo needs to start penning their will. You certainly can't count on getting another Wii, but in 2004 it looked like Nintendo was in bad shape as well. The biggest danger may be that they continue to lose mindshare in the west.

 

[sd28821]

so he basically changes his argument to fit the current narrative then

 

[flyinpiranha]

I partially agree. As much as I am annoyed by his Nostradamus-like verbiage, his quotes are usually a good conversation starter if you just skip through the "fuck this guy" posts.

I think he's fairly on point with this though. While Mario sells, I'm unsure if it can sell at the levels we have seen in the past. This holiday is going to be (most likely) right up against TWO brand new systems that will look better on screen by a margin, and if price rumors are true, fairly close in range with the Wii U.

But, you never know, somebody might make that "must have" game that word of mouth spreads like wildfire for the Wii U but I'm highly doubtful.

The 3DS they have "turned around" but that included a huge price drop and some big games. I expect the same for the Wii U. I would buy it at $200-250, maybe. But once the new consoles arrive I probably won't really care and will buy a used one in a few years to play Mario and Zelda.

 

[KillerTravis]

Like the N64 and GC?

Those consoles gave profit to Nintendo, and gave us great games, so yeah?

 

[peanutbutterlatte]

Not sure why people assume that Wii Fit U will suddenly make an unattractive console attractive. The first did so well because the Wii itself was coveted.

Anecdotal evidence is pretty irritating I realize, but I know several people who bought a Wii for Wii Fit, and Wii Fit alone. Now those kind of people may have tired of the idea or are happy with the base package, but there's a good chance they'd upgrade if the idea had advanced enough.

 

[Plinko]

I did say that I agreed with the analysis that it's going to continue to tank. I think it's going to be a flop for Nintendo. A huge flop. Mario and Zelda will not save it.

Again, the thread isn't about that. It's about his statement that he thinks Nintendo may not recover as a business.

 

[Feature]

Wow finally something that makes sense. But ofcourse , he read that on neogaf and just saying stuff people knew for months now.

 

[Anth0ny]

"Never" is a bit strong.

But this is going to hurt them big time unless they make some big moves.

 

[A Human Becoming]

He said it would sell out (basically) through the first two quarters of 2012.

When he was asked later about this (recently) he stated that he overestimated the hardcore Nintendo fan-base.

I had completely forgotten about that. I expected it would sell out for a couple months at least myself, but I also didn't take into account they're supposedly producing them at a faster rate than the Wii. Even then it's bombing like the Vita.

 

[Plinko]

I love how GAF has been saying for the past weeks how the Wii U is looking more and more like a "failure" or at least something that is going to have a lot of trouble, but the moment Pachter say the same thing, everyone spit on him.

We joke because we love.

Seriously, though, it's funny because he makes statements like this and is wrong almost all of the time. It's comical.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Price-cut and second half of 2013 software should do its part to get them on track for slow but steady growth.

If not, welp.

 

[Amalthea]

Glad he said it.
Because it won't happen now.

 

[Baconsammy]

Anecdotal evidence is pretty irritating I realize, but I know several people who bought a Wii for Wii Fit, and Wii Fit alone. Now those kind of people may have tired of the idea or are happy with the base package, but there's a good chance they'd upgrade if the idea had advanced enough.

Anecdotal evidence is fine. I have a lot of friends and family for whom Wii Fit was the reason they needed to finally get a Wii. But the difference was the Wii was something they already actually wanted. The Wii U isn't something they even consider, and their Wii Fit boards have either been tossed, thrown under a couch, or sold. I could be wrong, I often am, but I don't see Wii Fit U selling tons of Wii Us.

 

[snowdog1971]

When is he ever going to be quiet? The only thing he is constantly right about, is how wrong he is all the time.

The amusing thing is that he said exactly the same thing about the 3DS before the launches of Mario Kart 7 and Super Mario3D Land and the price cut. And it's been outselling everything since then and third parties are all over 3DS development.

The man is a fool, difficult to believe he gets paid a small fortune for getting so many things so wrong.

Plenty of software on the way for the U, I'm expecting it to have an installed userbase between 10 and 15m before the end of this year as long as Mario Kart U and 3D Mario are released before Christmas. And depending on the launch prices of the PS4 and 720 we might see a price cut before Christmas too.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Price-cut and second half of 2013 software should do its part to get them on track for slow but steady growth.

If not, welp.

Price cut is not happening. They're already selling it at a loss, they can't afford to lose even more money on it. Besides, it's not five hundred and ninety-nine US dollars.

 

[farnham]

They think Wii Fit U is going to save the Wii U? You mean the millions of people who purchased Wii Fit, used it twice and then shoved it aside and going to be jumping hand over fist to buy a new Wii U and Wii Fit U?

LOL

That fad as passed. They need core games, like right now, to save their asses with this system. The casual Wii Fit people who were interested in the Wii have no interest in the Wii U. The people waiting for 3D Mario and Zelda are interested in the Wii U, that is who they need to appeal too right now.

20 millions for both versions actually

It is a product aimed at a different consumer. I dont think it is a fair assesment to say they used it twice if you dont have data to back it up.

I use it regularly and my wife told me she saw people talking about wii fit on japanese birthing related message boards. I also saw wii fit pamphlets catered at pregnant women. Its aimed at a very different audience.

 

[Diablos54]

Sony has one successful device. Nintendo's struggling with 2. I don't think Sony would love for the PS3 or PS4 to also struggle. Especially in the West.

Successful? What, the system which wiped out their PS1/PS2 profits? Not exactly the word I'd use.

Also, if the 3DS is struggling (Which it is in the West, but killing it in the East), then the Vita is a zombified corpse, funny you'd forget about that isn't it?

 

[cyberheater]

Again, the thread isn't about that. It's about his statement that he thinks Nintendo may not recover as a business.

I still think as a business one big flop can effectively kill you off. I can even see them becoming a 3rd party dev if WiiU doesn't succeed.

 

[Baconsammy]

We joke because we love.

Seriously, though, it's funny because he makes statements like this and is wrong almost all of the time. It's comical.

He's more often than not wrong when he makes predictions based on no first hand knowledge. Like assuming Wii U would sell out through April worldwide. He's much better (as are most people) when he's got actual facts in hand. For my money, that doesn't make him a very good analyst.

Successful? What, the system which wiped out their PS1/PS2 profits? Not exactly the word I'd use.

Also, if the 3DS is struggling (Which it is in the West, but killing it in the East), then the Vita is a zombified corpse, funny you'd forget about that isn't it?

PS3's success right now isn't monetary. It's that it is growing in popularity and sales with a solid library of first party and third party games. The bridge from PS3 to PS4 is short. With the Wii, Nintendo put a bullet in its head 3 years ago and are just now trying to win back all the gamers they alienated. Different strategy probably leads to a different outcome.

 

[Vane_MagicCity]

Im so sick of pachter and im really sick of everyone obsessing over every little thing he says.

I am really sick of people bashing Pachter every chance they get. They say they don't care what Pachter says but clearly they do or they wouldn't be posting in threads like this.

I think Nintendo may do well if Microsoft and Sony screw up too badly. Otherwise, the excitement for the WiiU is underwhelming. I am sure Nintendo has plenty of money left over after the Wii and DS successes.

 

[BearPawB]

Anecdotal evidence is fine. I have a lot of friends and family for whom Wii Fit was the reason they needed to finally get a Wii. But the difference was the Wii was something they already actually wanted. The Wii U isn't something they even consider, and their Wii Fit boards have either been tossed, thrown under a couch, or sold. I could be wrong, I often am, but I don't see Wii Fit U selling tons of Wii Us.

Yeah, my mom loved the wii fit. and by loved i mean used it twice.
I doubt a new version is going to change her mine. If she wanted to use a video game workout system she would use the one she has.