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[Kouriozan]

Just like how Sony never recovered from PS3..Oh wait.

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

Anecdotal evidence is pretty irritating I realize, but I know several people who bought a Wii for Wii Fit, and Wii Fit alone. Now those kind of people may have tired of the idea or are happy with the base package, but there's a good chance they'd upgrade if the idea had advanced enough.

Casuals don't really give a shit about upgrading their console. Wii Fit U probably won't change their minds.

 

[peanutbutterlatte]

I think the problem with Pachter is he ranges from "incredibly, stupidly ill informed" to "mind-blowingly obvious". There is no middle-ground.

 

[A Twisty Fluken]

Anecdotal evidence is fine. I have a lot of friends and family for whom Wii Fit was the reason they needed to finally get a Wii. But the difference was the Wii was something they already actually wanted. The Wii U isn't something they even consider, and their Wii Fit boards have either been tossed, thrown under a couch, or sold. I could be wrong, I often am, but I don't see Wii Fit U selling tons of Wii Us.

Anecdotal evidence is actually one of the worst bases for an argument. So I wouldn't particularly call it "fine."

 

[Coolwhip]

I am really sick of people bashing Pachter every chance they get. They say they don't care what Pachter says but clearly they do or they wouldn't be posting in threads like this.

I think Nintendo may do well if Microsoft and Sony screw up too badly. Otherwise, the excitement for the WiiU is underwhelming. I am sure Nintendo has plenty of money left over after the Wii and DS successes.

It's just annoying that someone so clueless about the gaming industry gets quoted all the time. It looks like whenever mainstream media wants a quote they go to Pachter. While going to someone like Sessler would be so so much better.

 

[SquiddyCracker]

Well, if Pachter says it then it's certain that Nintendo will recover from the Wii U.
Sorry, people-who-want-Nintendo-to-go-third-party.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Price cut is not happening. They're already selling it at a loss, they can't afford to lose even more money on it. Besides, it's not five hundred and ninety-nine US dollars.

It's too many dollars though.

 

[hachi]

People don't constantly upgrade their PC's video cards because they expect new experiences. Graphics mean a lot, to a lot of people. Same reason people keep buying higher higher res phones/tablets.

I believe you put too much faith in the psychology behind yearly updates of phones and other gadgets. It's driven by an industry need for continuous planned-obsolescence, carried out brilliantly by marketing that can make the average consumer feel left behind if they don't have something comparable to the latest and greatest that others are carrying around.

Yearly updates of phone have a lot to do with this sense of needing to be current or to have what others have; no inherent need for more and more incremental upgrades on number of pixels exists that could drive sales the way they currently move. (Plus much of it is the contract system that strongly rewards regular replacement at expiration of each period).

I'm just saying: it's tremendously naive to think that tech is actually driven significantly by preexisting human desires rather than ones created and shaped by complex marketing and other mechanisms. Though I think you recognize that when you say "they expect new experiences" -- indeed, there is a desire for the feeling that something is new, is cutting edge. That's a psychological reaction that has nothing to do with pixels, however, and the latter are just one arbitrary thing that can be seized upon to turn this desire into sales.

Why is this important? Because Nintendo has succeeded before (Wii) by bucking the trends and finding another way to give the consumer something new and fresh, or something surprising, and it's important to recognize that brilliant companies are generally those that can do so rather than simply appeasing the incremental upgrade needs of the current consumer snapshot. Wii U may well fail, of course, but "people like high end graphics" is a limited view that wouldn't save them even if they believed it fully.

 

[miserable]

He continues to say things like "It's just not that different from the other two [existing] consoles, and the gameplay isn't as unique as the Wii", so I wonder what will, in his mind, Sony and MS do to show their consoles are so much different from their previous consoles?

Are visuals enough in his mind or do they need new controllers and other general concepts?

I guess in his mind only Nintendo has to create something different, the others don't need this, they will be fine.
It's always an uphill battle for Nintendo, basically as GAF says "Nintendo just can't win".

 

[Plinko]

I still think as a business one big flop can effectively kill you off. I can even see them becoming a 3rd party dev if WiiU doesn't succeed.

I'd agree with you if they didn't have the massive cash reserves and the 3DS being a moderate success right now.

I truly believe they never go third-party. They'll go down in flames as a first-party company. Team up with another company? Maybe. But never third-party.

 

[woolley]

I don't really see the Wii U becoming a success. I have absolutely no interest in buying one and I don't think most of the people around me even know what the Wii U is and the ones that do have zero interest in it as well. I don't see that changing especially with the new consoles coming out.

The Wii was a very popular and successful fad that died out quickly and it was a mistake by Nintendo to keep the name so close.

 

[SpookyBlackFish]

That Pachter man is the Wizard of O(pposite)z.

 

[Baconsammy]

Anecdotal evidence is actually one of the worst bases for an argument. So I wouldn't particularly call it "fine."

It's fine for a discussion here in this thread, which was my point. I'm not saying a paid professional should rely upon it solely. It is "evidence" though. Just not the full picture.

 

[The Technomancer]

Whew, okay. I was actually worried about Nintendo for a while, but with the Pachter prediction in I feel safe in saying WiiU will have a fantastic holiday season and go on to sell 60 million units

 

[Meelow]

What does he mean by recover? GameCube only sold 21 million and Nintendo still made big profits from it.

Truthfully I am getting tired of Pachter, I wish I can have his job though, get payed for saying randomness.

 

[Diablos54]

PS3's success right now isn't monetary. It's that it is growing in popularity and sales with a solid library of first party and third party games. The bridge from PS3 to PS4 is short. With the Wii, Nintendo put a bullet in its head 3 years ago and are just now trying to win back all the gamers they alienated. Different strategy probably leads to a different outcome.

Okay, I know all this. So you'd still call the PS3 a success then (Despite the fact it did turn its fate around eventually) just because it's putting the PS4 in a good position? I'm not so sure Sony would agree. Also, you forgot Vita again...

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

First dumb thing I've seen him say in a while. He was on a roll with legit points for a while there.

 

[suddenlyissoon]

It won't become a success but it won't ruin the company either. Nintendo is a money printing machine as long as people will buy Zelda/Mario/Metroid/etc. They've burned me twice (once with the Wii & most recently with the Wii U) and I feel like a fool because of it. I definitely won't be fooled a 3rd time.

 

[RoKKeR]

I actually feel bad for the guy. Every time he opens his mouth he gets absolutely ridiculed on GAF.

I can see why he think's we're all assholes.

 

[LukeTim]

I still have faith that Nintendo know what they're doing.

This could simply be part of the plan.

 

[Z3M0G]

I think it was a mistake to market the WiiU towards the core gamer...

They should have taken this as an opportunity to bring successful casual DS experiences to the living room... games that focus on using the stylus.

At least... target BOTH audiences... they ignored the casual market entirely.

Everyone here wanted them to focus on the Core gamer, but it's 2-3 years too late for that, especially months before the PS4/720 hit.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

3DS is doing fine overall.

If Nintendo recovered fine from Gamecube, they'll be fine from this debacle.

No it´s not. It´s selling much less than what Nintendo is expecting, with both hardware and software. It sold much less in January 2013 which had 5 weeks than January 2012 which had 4 week´s sales. Falling sales after introducing the XL and Mario is not good at all, regardless how one looks at it.

 

[michaelius]

Yeah, my mom loved the wii fit. and by loved i mean used it twice.
I doubt a new version is going to change her mine. If she wanted to use a video game workout system she would use the one she has.

Everyone wanted to belive the magical $300 console will make them lose weight and then they discovered it requires hard work like every other way.

 

[Knux-Future]

Baconsammy, do you have a negative Nintendo news plugin or something? lol.


on topic, people/Nintendo needs to realize that they will not do DS/Wii numbers again...nothing will.

So calling the 3DS a failure because it's not doing DS numbers is pretty dumb. It's selling really well for a system that had a good chunk of it userbase cut by the smartphone market. "oh bu-but it had the worst january than any DS did...ahhhhh..." doesn't really matter.

The Wii U has been out for 3 months and yeah it doesn't look so hot right now but at least wait until the "system sellers" hit before panicing. Nintendo fucked up with the console I will agree to that but I think they can turn it around and make it work for them.

The doom and gloom of these boards lately is really really bad. We all should just blast some Linkin Park and shit.

 

[KillerTravis]

Bonus Round 2012: "Wii U is fine, 3DS is dead"

Pachter: "Wii-U will be absolutely fine and very competitive, the 3DS on the other hand is dead. They lost 50% of their market to tablets and its that reason why Nintendo lost money, not because of sluggish Wii sales."

Shaun: "But...The 3DS is out selling the DS in terms of the same time period though...."

*5 second silence of silence

Pachter: "Well..."

Now we are guaranteed that Wii U will make a comeback.

 

[Baconsammy]

Okay, I know all this. So you'd still call the PS3 a success then (Despite the fact it did turn its fate around eventually) just because it's putting the PS4 in a good position? I'm not so sure Sony would agree. Also, you forgot Vita again...

No, I'd call their transition from PS3 to PS4 a success. I'd call the PS3 one giant clusterfuck that Sony wishes they could do-over, and I believe they view the PS4 as their do-over. I don't get the constant need by Nintendo fans to bash the Vita. Like anyone out there thinks the Vita has been anything but a disaster. If your product is being compared to the Vita, which you're doing constantly, your product is in deep shit.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

I truly believe they never go third-party. They'll go down in flames as a first-party company. Team up with another company? Maybe. But never third-party.

Let me preface this by stating that I think any "they should go third party" discussion is way too premature at this point. However, having said that, I honestly don't understand some of this talk. If they were hemorrhaging money due to floundering hardware with no hope of continuing on that trajectory, I can't fathom why some think they are just so stubborn that they would refuse to make software for any other platform if it became clear that the dream that was Nintendo hardware was dead.

 

[Gamer @ Heart]

I actually feel bad for the guy. Every time he opens his mouth he gets absolutely ridiculed on GAF.

I can see why he think's we're all assholes.

Lets not pretend those negative feelings for him are not in some way justified. The man is wrong far more than he is right, and sadly, GAF has fallen into a vicious circle with him, like the media dis with david jaffe for far too long, where we make a new topic for every fucking thing he says.

 

[eznark]

"something they probably can't recover from"

Does he really think the WiiU will force Nintendo out of business? That seems...unlikely.

 

[farnham]

What does he mean by recover? GameCube only sold 21 million and Nintendo still made big profits from it.

Truthfully I am getting tired of Pachter, I wish I can have his job though, get payed for saying randomness.

Thats the thing i hate about him

His official statements are just flamboyant self promotion

The money he makes is from clients (fonds, private investors etc.) he gives them data about past performance and predicts future performance and tells them whether they should invest or not. If you go to him as a client he probably will tell you very different things about soy, nintendo, ea etc. Compared to what he says publicly. You have to pay em though

No, I'd call their transition from PS3 to PS4 a success. I'd call the PS3 one giant clusterfuck that Sony wishes they could do-over, and I believe they view the PS4 as their do-over. I don't get the constant need by Nintendo fans to bash the Vita. Like anyone out there thinks the Vita has been anything but a disaster. If your product is being compared to the Vita, which you're doing constantly, your product is in deep shit.

the transition hasnt even started?

 

[keltickennedy]

I actually agree with the guy this time. I bought a Wii U a couple weeks after launch. Played some ZombiU, now it is collection dust till Wonderful 101.

 

[AZ Greg]

Great consoles, none of them were the #1 seller but still made money, and have awesome games.

Those consoles gave profit to Nintendo, and gave us great games, so yeah?

Didn't know the goal posts had been moved so far...

 

[Mindlog]

I am really sick of people bashing Pachter every chance they get. They say they don't care what Pachter says but clearly they do or they wouldn't be posting in threads like this.

I think Nintendo may do well if Microsoft and Sony screw up too badly. Otherwise, the excitement for the WiiU is underwhelming. I am sure Nintendo has plenty of money left over after the Wii and DS successes.

That's what I was going to say.

I'm not certain Nintendo can turn it completely around with just games. Miiverse porting needs to be accelerated and in the US they should consider a more intimate partnership with Netflix. Something to attract attention to the platform again.

 

[DevelopmentArrested]

Holy fuck this guy just repeats the same shit over and over again

 

[Plinko]

No it´s not. It´s selling much less than what Nintendo is expecting, with both hardware and software. It sold much less in January 2013 which had 5 weeks than January 2012 which had 4 week´s sales. Falling sales after introducing the XL and Mario is not good at all, regardless how one looks at it.

It's fine. Let's be honest here--Nintendo's expectations of the market have been off in every respect recently. I've learned to ignore every Nintendo sales "expectation."

We do, however, have sales numbers. Compare the sales numbers to DS, which released in a market with absolutely ZERO iOS/smartphone/tablet market saturation, and it's doing quite well--MUCH better than people thought after it's first 3 months on the market.

 

[Persona86]

Nintendo ain't even started BABY! You's about to get shook from the what Nintendo has planned fo yo azz!

 

[Glass Rebel]

No it´s not. It´s selling much less than what Nintendo is expecting, with both hardware and software. It sold much less in January 2013 which had 5 weeks than January 2012 which had 4 week´s sales. Falling sales after introducing the XL and Mario is not good at all, regardless how one looks at it.

Wait for E3 TGS Pokémon.

It's too early to judge the 3DS before its third Christmas.

 

[Gahiggidy]

"I think they misfired on the Wii U," said Pachter. "It's just not that different from the other two [existing] consoles, and the gameplay isn't as unique as the Wii. They made a mistake, it's something they probably can't recover from."

And how exactly is Sony and Microsoft's new products going to be that different than their old machines?

 

[Plinko]

Let me preface this by stating that I think any "they should go third party" discussion is way too premature at this point. However, having said that, I honestly don't understand some of this talk. If they were hemorrhaging money due to floundering hardware with no hope of continuing on that trajectory, I can't fathom why some think they are just so stubborn that they would refuse to make software for any other platform if it became clear that the dream that was Nintendo hardware was dead.

As I said, I still believe there would be a much higher chance of them teaming up for a console than going third-party.

 

[Eyeh4wk]

Well, he's bound to be right eventually!

 

[ffdgh]

Ahh so they may recover.

 

[jstripes]

Yeah we seriously need a Pikmin 3 date.

Pikmin is amazing, but it doesn't drive console sales. It's legendary to Nintendo fans of a certain age, but that's about it.

 

[spekkeh]

Wii U isn't making any sales projections. Pachter makes the BOLD preditions based on it again. This guy is so predictable, I really don't understand why his opinion is held highly.

Opinion held highly? By whom? I thought he was this running internet joke for the last eight years on the basis of never getting a prediction right.

 

[flyinpiranha]

The amusing thing is that he said exactly the same thing about the 3DS before the launches of Mario Kart 7 and Super Mario3D Land and the price cut. And it's been outselling everything since then and third parties are all over 3DS development.

Without the emergency call for a price-cut the 3DS would be in dire straights. I also am unsure about 3rd parties being "all over it" as I mostly see Japanese games being made for it (which I'm cool with, love the system, in fact my house has 3, me, fiance, and son) and few of the big Western Developers making games, but I haven't been keeping up on it much.

Either way, at the price point the Wii U is at and then going up against two brand new systems this holiday ... if Nintendo doesn't change anything except for launching one or two games for it like Mario, Wii U Fit, Zelda, or Mario Kart .... I don't see it being successful in the long run and Nintendo is a public company so loss can resort to massive change.

Will "Nintendo" still exist in years? Of course. But I don't think it will be the same company myself. And of course if they drop the price and drop some great games on the system, I would change my tune. I can only armchair analyze from what I see and know at this point.

 

[Baconsammy]

It's fine. Let's be honest here--Nintendo's expectations of the market have been off in every respect recently. I've learned to ignore every Nintendo sales "expectation."

We do, however, have sales numbers. Compare the sales numbers to DS, which released in a market with absolutely ZERO iOS/smartphone/tablet market saturation, and it's doing quite well--MUCH better than people thought after it's first 3 months on the market.

If he said the 3DS can't recover, he's foolish given what's coming the rest of the year. If a year from now we're talking about the 3DS still having sales months that are sub-DS's worst months, then Nintendo is screwed royally in the West. Until then, meh. Thanks to Apple/Google, they'll never have a DS success, but as long as they lower their own expectations, they'll have a success.

 

[Chû Totoro]

Big sales in march so we can have an appetizer and a strong Q3 before competing with PS4 and Xbox 720.

That's what he's saying, right?

Edit : sorry but why does a lot of people are saying 3DS isn't a success? Seriously?

 

[Plinko]

Bonus Round 2012: "Wii U is fine, 3DS is dead"



Now we are guaranteed that Wii U will make a comeback.

Did this actually happen? Is this an actual transcript?

 

[QaaQer]

I am really sick of people bashing Pachter every chance they get. They say they don't care what Pachter says but clearly they do or they wouldn't be posting in threads like this.

Yeah, its funny. It's like they think he is the one asking himself for interviews and starting threads. The internet equivalent of the crazy guy on the street corner yelling at passersby.

 

[Diablos54]

I don't get the constant need by Nintendo fans to bash the Vita. Like anyone out there thinks the Vita has been anything but a disaster. If your product is being compared to the Vita, which you're doing constantly, your product is in deep shit.

The only reason I brought up the Vita was because you were comparing 1 Sony system (Which you called successful, then backtracked. ) to 2 'struggling' Nintendo systems, while ignoring the almost dead system Sony have around their neck.

 

[Plinko]

Pikmin is amazing, but it doesn't drive console sales. It's legendary to Nintendo fans of a certain age, but that's about it.

Agreed. Pikmin isn't going to sell this thing at all.

I believe Mario Kart, on the other hand, clearly will. The Wii version sold gangbusters. If they release a holiday bundle with Mario Kart this holiday along with a price cut I honestly believe it could win the holiday season.