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[metalslimer]

55,000 consoles being sold a month doesn't indicate any such turnaround. Nintendo's biggest problem isn't negativity, that is very much a hyperbolic internet thing, it's complete indifference. People don't hate or talk shit about the Wii U, they just don't care or know about it.

Which is somewhat better because theoretically they could relaunch. Too bad they'll be crushed by MS and Sony's ad campaigns this fall. Nintendo has completely blown the advantage a 1 year headstart could bring and continue to look worse and worse and more current gen and next gen games are absent

 

[serplux]

So is there a particular reason why sales would go down from the previous month after the Wii U gets its first retail titles since December?

 

[Ridley327]

Let's just hope that Nintendo isn't delaying researching and developing their next system in the hopes that Wii U will make a turnaround.

Nintendo didn't start R&D on Wii U until 2008, which was a huge mistake as well. -_-

Two years after the current console has launched is a pretty typical timespan to start R&D on your next system. Xbox 360 started work in 2003, and the PS4 started work in 2008. What's so wrong with that?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Uhh, nothing? Nothing I said was false

Almost everything you said is wrong.

Pachter is an investment analyst; included in his remit are video games.

He doesn't "do it as a hobby."

He gets the actual NPD reports in full, which cost Wedbush something to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars per month. He has access to much more data than the public is privy to - much more data than anyone here has, save a few like Harker and creamsugar.

That doesn't mean his predictions are necessarily going to be accurate. But he has much more to use to form a basis for prediction.

 

[jetsetmario]

I'm not one of those Nintendo is doomed folks but I do feel as though the Wii U is pretty well doomed. I honestly can't think of any plausible scenario or game release that can turn it around.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Pachter is not a videogame analyst.

Lol. Yes he is.

 

[PaulExcellent]

Damn.
Need more games.

 

[reelbigtink]

A ~$50-$75 price drop and some good first party software should jumpstart the system. I just hope it happens before the PS4/Xbox launch to at least try and stay competitive.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

i'm curious where you go that has an overwhelmingly negative opinion of the console

Well seeing as how poorly it's selling, how little software is being bought, I'd say that the numbers speak for themselves.

 

[Radec]

Bring the Deluxe down to $200-250 Nintendo.

I might dig in for that Bayonetta 2.

 

[Branduil]

5m ww for 6 years? assuming there are new consoles in 2018. it's possible, i suppose. at this rate they're not hitting 5m ww by the end of the calendar year.

i really see a situation where the old managers are sacked, the new guys come in, and they have a 'the saturn is not our future' moment and vanish from the console market for an unreasonable amount of time.

Who vanishes? The old managers, the new guys, or Sega?

 

[axisofweevils]

If this is true, I guess it explains why Nintendo announced the cut off for Wii services.

 

[metalslimer]

Uhh, nothing? Nothing I said was false

Everything you said was false besides the fact that this is a prediction but he is nothing like us when making a prediction.

Well seeing as how poorly it's selling, how little software is being bought, I'd say that the numbers speak for themselves.

The numbers tell me people dont even care enough to have an opinion on the system

 

[wildfire]

Geez. It's an ESTIMATE. People need to realize Pachter is not a videogame analyst. He does it as a hobby.

Yes he is. It's part of his job.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

if it really had plenty of great games available, it could be doing better.

Fixed. I highly doubt that. People are just not interested in the WiiU hardware.

 

[Darryl]

55,000 consoles being sold a month doesn't indicate any such turnaround. Nintendo's biggest problem isn't negativity, that is very much a hyperbolic internet thing, it's complete indifference. People don't hate or talk shit about the Wii U, they just don't care or know about it.

i still don't even believe that nintendo's made a full effort to get consumers to try. i think they were hoping the console would create enough momentum to last this long, but i don't believe they intended that to be a long-term strategy and that they'd never have to advertise because of it instantly becoming a Wii-like craze. they don't have the software out at launch to give that indication. i still believe that when the software hits and the advertising starts, consumers will be much more accepting of it. they aren't going to dismiss it because of negative preconceived opinions from the "failed launch". there's still plenty of opportunities for them to turn this around.

Well seeing as how poorly it's selling, how little software is being bought, I'd say that the numbers speak for themselves.

low sales does not imply a negative opinion, it could imply a lack of interest as well. those two things aren't the same at all.

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

And this is with those new games that came out in March? Yikes...

 

[DragonSworne]

Two years after the current console has launched is a pretty typical timespan to start R&D on your next system. Xbox 360 started work in 2003, and the PS4 started work in 2008. What's so wrong with that?

Because those systems weren't outdated performance wise like the Wii was.

Nintendo should have realized that Wii sales would died down given by the kind of software support they were getting from third parties when compared to 360 and PS3.

Nope, they thought they could ride on Wii hype for 6 years and then release what is esstenially Wii HD 3 years too late.

Wii HD would have sold like crazy in 2008-2009.

 

[polyh3dron]

Just wait for X

Double entendre?

 

[InsaneLuchador]

Too soon to be worried considering there's no proper Mario title, Mario Kart or Smash Bros. out yet. If those three hit and the numbers stay the same, then they're up the creek.

 

[Lunar15]

Why should we go back as far as the Gamecube? Are you just cherry picking a generation here?

Modern entries in the series, namely Mario and Mario Kart, sell gangbusters nowadays.

They still sell well as was proven by the 3DS.

So why, again, are you going back so far? Is it because it helps your argument?

Um, because that system had all three of those games and did not sell well? I'm just saying, having all 3 is not some magical thing that sells a system. This is the very crux of my argument. Heck, the Wii U has a Mario game and it's not selling well. I'm not saying these games don't sell, it's that they don't always sell a system, as proven by the Gamecube.

 

[B.O.O.M]

Did people really think Lego was a system mover?

Some..yes.

Anywho I doubt it will be this low. Didn't Monhun launch also in march? I'm thinking at least 70k

 

[AZ Greg]

i'm curious where you go that has an overwhelmingly negative opinion of the console

I was laughing at the fact that there is no negativity out there because there is no anything out there. Nobody cares about the thing, not even enough to be negative about it. At least negativity early on keeps you in the limelight until things are corrected, like the PS3.

So is there a particular reason why sales would go down from the previous month after the Wii U gets its first retail titles since December?

Because the small pool of people interested in the thing continues to dwindle.

 

[MoonLightWave]

pachter was wildly off in february. 80k wii us (66k from npd), 160k ps3s (200k from npd), and 225k 360s (300k from npds).

i'm not suggesting it's an unbelievable number, but 55k in march would be the absolute end of the console. well, i suppose the holidays would just be its swan song. we're talking about fewer weekly sales than february when there were actually some high-rated games (even if two were late up-ports), and some advertising for the console to go along with one of them.

edit: i seem to have gotten my months mixed up. i always thought february was the slow one in q1 due to january following christmas and march being the end of the fiscal year for many companies.

According to that pacther prediction pattern above, Wii U will sell less than 55k.

 

[Mystic_Wanderer]

People suggesting such a drastic price cut are crazy.

If they cut it $100, that's probably roughly a $100 loss, right? Aren't they just about even right now, all things considered?

Sell a million, and that's $100,000,000 down the drain. Not really smart business.

 

[Fantastical]

Wow, these numbers are truly awful. I know it's early, but it seems like the Wii U is such a failed console. It's so hard to find anyone even remotely excited about it.

 

[Aquamarine]

So is there a particular reason why sales would go down from the previous month after the Wii U gets its first retail titles since December?

Lack of software momentum.

Consider a scenario where NSMB:U, Sonic: All-Stars Racing, etc. continue to decline heavily after their 5th month of being at retail.

The slew of games released on March 18th / March 19th are meant to replace the ailing momentum of the launch lineup with a new momentum until June. But if LEGO City Undercover can't sufficiently resonate with audiences, Nintendo ends up sabotaging what remains of their launch momentum, flatlining the console.

The GameCube had the rapidly increasing success of Super Smash Bros. Melee to propel its first North-American March sales to 111,000 units. However, the Wii U doesn't have such a luxury. That's where a 55,000 prediction might come from.

 

[SolarPowered]

If these things don't happen... Dump the Wii U and Try again. Just say it's an HD version of the Wii and move inventory... then go back and Work on a system that can and will compete with the PlayStation & Xbox... while also work on a System that will stop the iPhone & Android from cannibalizing the handheld gaming market.

Yeah... the section in bold isn't a an issue of "systems". It's more an issue of software and the prices they charge for it. If Nintendo wants to compete with the mobile space on a hardware level there are only two ways to go. Cheaper hardware than ever or a phone and the latter will NOT work.

 

[TheDarkKnight774]

It's so crazy to see the Wii u struggle so badly compared to last gen. I remember when the PS3 launched and all the joke gifs as the PS3 would get close to 100k but couldn't get over the hurdle. And that was with the $600 price tag. Now Nintendo would be giddy at 100k.

 

[Fox Mulder]

So is there a particular reason why sales would go down from the previous month after the Wii U gets its first retail titles since December?

Maybe people just stopped caring.

Nintendo needs a price drop and to get the wiis off the shelf now.

 

[Ridley327]

Because those systems weren't outdated performance wise like the Wii was.

Nintendo should have realized that Wii sales would die down given by the kind of software support they were getting from third parties when compared to 360 and PS3.

Nope, they thought they could ride on Wii hype for 6 years and then release what is esstenially Wii HD 3 years too late.

Wii U would have sold like crazy in 2008-2009.

But the Wii sold like crazy for a while after 2008. Where was the impetus for releasing a successor that quickly when the system was doing that well? Even with the lack of major third party games, games like Mario Kart Wii outsold every damn game on the planet.

There was really nothing wrong with how they scheduled their hardware map; what was wrong was the kind of hardware that they scheduled.

 

[Trent Strong]

Some..yes.

Anywho I doubt it will be this low. Didn't Monhun launch also in march? I'm thinking at least 70k

Do Americans even know what Monhun is?

 

[reelbigtink]

Wow, these numbers are truly awful. I know it's early, but it seems like the Wii U is such a failed console. It's so hard to find anyone even remotely excited about it.

Like others have said, it's way too early to call it a failed console. After E3 we'll have a better idea of where it's headed.

 

[jmizzal]

You mean Lego City and Monster Hunter didn't save it?

Patcher predictions have yet to be right, I doubt its less then last month

 

[opticalmace]

People suggesting such a drastic price cut are crazy.

If they cut it $100, that's probably roughly a $100 loss, right? Aren't they just about even right now, all things considered?

Sell a million, and that's $100,000,000 down the drain. Not really smart business.

You can already get the basic for $100 off and the deluxe for $50 off here in Canada at Costco. They had (have?) a ton of them...

 

[serplux]

Lack of software momentum.

Consider a scenario where NSMB:U, Sonic: All-Stars Racing, etc. continue to decline heavily after their 5th month of being at retail.

The slew of games released on March 18th / March 19th are meant to replace the ailing momentum of the launch lineup with a new momentum until June. But if LEGO City Undercover can't sufficiently resonate with audiences, Nintendo ends up sabotaging what remains of their launch momentum, flatlining the console.

The GameCube had the rapidly increasing success of Super Smash Bros. Melee to propel its first North-American March sales to 111,000 units. However, the Wii U doesn't have such a luxury. That's where a 55,000 prediction might come from.

I...somewhat get what you're saying. I'm still genuinely confused though.

 

[wildfire]

Uhh, nothing? Nothing I said was false

Just to quote the relevant part in case you didn't bother to read my link.

I'm keenly aware of the amount of press I get; your statement that my job is to make forecasts in the video game industry is patently wrong. My job is to help investors make decisions about investing in one of the 20 companies I cover. Included in that list is Nintendo, Activision, EA, Take-Two, Ubisoft and Majesco. The other 14 companies are not video game companies (GameStop is clearly related, but doesn't make games).

 

[Snakeyes]

i really see a situation where the old managers are sacked, the new guys come in, and they have a 'the saturn is not our future' moment and vanish from the console market for an unreasonable amount of time.

It probably wouldn't be as drastic as you describe it, but I could see them supporting the Wii U with low-risk shovelware to generate a few profits while putting most of their resources towards the development of their next system.

 

[TheNatural]

People suggesting such a drastic price cut are crazy.

If they cut it $100, that's probably roughly a $100 loss, right? Aren't they just about even right now, all things considered?

Sell a million, and that's $100,000,000 down the drain. Not really smart business.

It's only even if people are buying enough. You want your revenue to increase enough to cover any price drop. Cost per system has always been a stupid metric, the systems have to actually sell in the first place.

 

[Little Green Yoda]

Because the small pool of people interested in the thing continues to dwindle.

That would only make sense if people bought the hardware already in anticipation for the titles released in March or if those titles are only selling to pre-existing Wii U owners.

Sales going down despite quality software being released would be a dire, dire sign.

 

[GoofsterStud]

Do you think Nintendo will switch most it's development to 3DS?

That's not such a bad thing. I just don't want Nintendo to go in the "DANGER ZONE".

 

[Rhindle]

My question is, what are the big guns?

Is it Mario, Metroid, and Zelda? Because those sure didn't help the Gamecube, and they showed them all off at the same conference.

Mario and Zelda aren't going to hack it. Especially not this year, in the face of the coming Durango/PS4 hype onslaught.

They need a new gimmick/peripheral to generate mass-market appeal. No one cares about the touchpad. They need a new "thing." The Wii Board played a big role in accelerating and sustaining Wii momentum. They need to toss something like that out there, and hope it catches fire.

 

[Game Guru]

At this points it's too late. There is too much negativity and bad press for the Wii U that people who would have been interested will be hestiate to even buy the Wii U once they learn about it.

Trying to turn Wii U around is going to cost Nintendo too much money. It's better to start over new with a different brand and retire the Wii name.

That's not going to work. They abandon the console and they piss off the few people who actually are still loyal to Nintendo. It would be the same with the Vita. Sega did that whole abandonment thing with the 32X and the Saturn and look where they are now. Nintendo's best option is just to try to make money on Wii U.

 

[Aquamarine]

I...somewhat get what you're saying. I'm still genuinely confused though.

Marketing and promotional materials for NSMB:U, etc. are pushed out for LEGO City Undercover, Monster Hunter, etc.

That's where the focus of Nintendo's efforts is going to be...out with the old, and in with the new.

But if the "new" can't sufficiently replace the old, it just creates stagnancy / negative feedback, halting hardware sales even further.

 

[Ridley327]

Do you think Nintendo will switch most it's development to 3DS?

That's not such a bad thing. I just don't want Nintendo to go in the "DANGER ZONE".

Well, they're bothering to announce release dates for 3DS titles, unlike their Wii U lineup.

 

[metalslimer]

That would only make sense if people bought the hardware already in anticipation for the titles released in March or if those titles are only selling to pre-existing Wii U owners.

Sales going down despite quality software being released would be a dire, dire sign.

Selling what it did in january and being a historic low was already dire

 

[Mashing]

They gotta do something before the holidays. Drop the basic sku, drop the deluxe by $100 when some notable games start coming out (I'm thinking in Sept).

The days are darkest, before the dawn. But right now the days are about as dark as a black hole.

 

[qizah]

The Wii U needs games. We'll see how Nintendo does this Holiday, depending on what they have. I'm not confident in the PS4 or new Xbox having much success either. I think this is a larger issue with the market than it is with the Wii U itself. Who knows. I just want E3.

 

[DragonSworne]

But the Wii sold like crazy for a while after 2008. Where was the impetus for releasing a successor that quickly when the system was doing that well? Even with the lack of major third party games, games like Mario Kart Wii outsold every damn game on the planet.

Apple, Samsung, and almost every successful tech company with a hot product release new editions of hardware before the old ones reach end of life.

Nintendo thought for some reason Wii mania would survive with no support in 2010-2011 and somehow it would come back in full force at the end of 2012 for Wii U...

Nintendo business practices are outdated. I honestly think MS and Sony are waiting too long as well and their systems are going to be a bust. Not as bad as Wii U, but they'll bomb.

 

[Little Green Yoda]

It's only even if people are buying enough. You want your revenue to increase enough to cover any price drop. Cost per system has always been a stupid metric, the systems have to actually sell in the first place.

If you price cut and have minimal losses because your sales haven't increased much, your pricecut failed. If you're operating on the premise that your pricecut does nothing, you're screwed regardless.