Well, lets see.. Ryse was dropped from being a kinect game to being a normal game (hint 1)
The kinect sports game took a break and wont be available day 1 (hint 2)
In my opinion, the "killer app" for kinect is ready, microsoft did it already as they told us some time ago.
Problem is, its not game related. Its the API for kinect they made for advertizing use.
Your prediction my friend, if you are afraid to predict the quality of the kinect games that will be shown, then pretty much is in line with my predictions, and not opposing them.
If microsoft has put all this money and time into kinect, decided to force it on the consumer, but still will fail to show us the killer game -even on the second version of the thing- then it doesnt take a genius to realise that maybe more things are happening than what one sees with a first glance. My 2c's.