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[shintoki]

Jon's death frees him up from his hands being tied. As long as he was commander of the Night Watch. He couldn't leave or doing anything, other than balance in the middle of the see-saw.

 

[Piecake]

Jon should have really pressed the argument that anyone who dies north of the Wall is potentially a wight. He said that once, but he never really hammered the point home. I think he would have gotten more support if he approached it from that angle the entire time.

Yup, beat them over the head with the practical nature of it. 'Sure, a few or a few hundred wildings might betray us, but that is a whole lot better than a 10,000 wights. We rob them of strength and and to ours. If a few betray us, that is a small price to pay.' Sucks that his decision to go south might totally undermine all of that, and its rather interesting that Mellisandre was a major part of that because without her, I doubt he gets that letter. I wonder what she is going to do

 

[elrechazado]

Jon's death frees him up from his hands being tied. As long as he was commander of the Night Watch. He couldn't leave or doing anything, other than balance in the middle of the see-saw.

All of the things he was able to do derived from his position with the watch. What is he going to do, go be a super commando on his own now? His power derives from his ability to command the watch. Unless he raises the north, which he already expressly rejected when presented with the opportunity. Jon's decision at the end of dwd shat all over the awesome choices he made in the first 4 books.

 

[Mockingbird]

Yup, beat them over the head with the practical nature of it. 'Sure, a few or a few hundred wildings might betray us, but that is a whole lot better than a 10,000 wights. We rob them of strength and and to ours. If a few betray us, that is a small price to pay.' Sucks that his decision to go south might totally undermine all of that, and its rather interesting that Mellisandre was a major part of that because without her, I doubt he gets that letter. I wonder what she is going to do

But he has no choice but to go South. He doesn't have any of the people that Ramsay wants, so if he doesn't go South, Ramsay will march North on the wall. Him going South is to prevent a war between The Wall and The Boltons.

 

[Count of Monte Sawed-Off]

But he has no choice but to go South. He doesn't have any of the people that Ramsay wants, so if he doesn't go South, Ramsay will march North on the wall. Him going South is to prevent a war between The Wall and The Boltons.

Also if he were to stay and Ramsay came north, Castle Black is undefendable from an attack from the south. He had to do something.

Although he did kind of fuck with his vows when he sent the raven warning Stannis of Karstark's betrayal.

I think he'll be out of the Night's Watch, as we have to get the 999th Lord Commander and maybe even the 1000th. Not sure what he'll do though if he's not at the Wall.

 

[Piecake]

But he has no choice but to go South. He doesn't have any of the people that Ramsay wants, so if he doesn't go South, Ramsay will march North on the wall. Him going South is to prevent a war between The Wall and The Boltons.

Then you write a letter saying that you dont have any of those people and then send a few scouts down to see if he is marching north, and if he does, then you go down to meet him. The Lord Commander can't be the one to attack first. If he would have done that, it might not have ended badly for him since until then, he hadnt really betrayed his oaths.

 

[Mockingbird]

Then you write a letter saying that you dont have any of those people and then send a few scouts down to see if he is marching north, and if he does, then you go down to meet him. The Lord Commander can't be the one to attack first. If he would have done that, it might not have ended badly for him since until then, he hadnt really betrayed his oaths.

Writing a letter won't do anything. The Bastard of Bolton already thinks Jon Snow's a liar as he sent Mance to steal Jeyne Poole -- which Jon thought was arya Stark -- from him. Since they're not with Stannis, they must be with him, is what Bolton assumes. This is provided that Stannis really is dead.

 

[elrechazado]

Writing a letter won't do anything. The Bastard of Bolton already thinks Jon Snow's a liar as he sent Mance to steal Jeyne Poole -- which Jon thought was arya Stark -- from him. Since they're not with Stannis, they must be with him, is what Bolton assumes. This is provided that Stannis really is dead.

How about send scouts out to see if stannis is dead, whether winterfell has really fallen, and or whether ramsay is actually marching for the wall before you go all braveheart with the wildlings and run off by yourself? It was stupid.

 

[Piecake]

Writing a letter won't do anything. The Bastard of Bolton already thinks Jon Snow's a liar as he sent Mance to steal Jeyne Poole -- which Jon thought was arya Stark -- from him. Since they're not with Stannis, they must be with him, is what Bolton assumes.

Youre right, it wont. Its just acting prudent by taking the proper form. The key thing though, is to make the Boltons make the first move so that the Night's Watch can be seen as just defending itself. By not doing that, he gave the people who disagreed with him a legitimate reason to get rid of him since he truly did betray his oaths.

I also think that one of the reasons why it happened this time is that he sent all of his friends away and isolated himself. Before, his friends and mentors were the one's who stopped him from doing something rash. If Sam or Aemon were on the wall, I think he would have consulted them and stopped him from doing something so foolish.

As is, everyone in a position of power he either sent away or disagreed with and he pretty much stopped being friends with his buddies.

 

[Puddles]

I know Sam is heading south and Rast is dead, but what happened to his other fellow-cadets?

 

[Piecake]

I know Sam is heading south and Rast is dead, but what happened to his other fellow-cadets?

he basically just stops hanging around them since he is the 'Lord Commander' He tried to do everything by himself without anyone giving him support or advice, and, in the end, it bit him in the ass because no one was in a position to save him from himself

 

[elrechazado]

I know Sam is heading south and Rast is dead, but what happened to his other fellow-cadets?

Grenn and pyp were sent to eastwatch iirc in adwd.

 

[squicken]

I guess I'm the only one who doesn't think Ramsay sent that letter. As I mentioned earlier, every other letter he wrote contained a piece of flayed skin. The letter to Jon did not.

My guess is that Melly orchestrated an elaborate scheme, both at the Wall and with Mance at Winterfell, to get Jon to out of the Watch. All the things in the letter Ramsay shouldn't have known about make sense if written by Mance, and we know that crystal has power over him. Either Mance wrote it himself, or forced Ramsay to write it.

 

[elrechazado]

I guess I'm the only one who doesn't think Ramsay sent that letter. As I mentioned earlier, every other letter he wrote contained a piece of flayed skin. The letter to Jon did not.

My guess is that Melly orchestrated an elaborate scheme, both at the Wall and with Mance at Winterfell, to get Jon to out of the Watch. All the things in the letter Ramsay shouldn't have known about make sense if written by Mance, and we know that crystal has power over him. Either Mance wrote it himself, or forced Ramsay to write it.

Ooh, that might be a nice theory. Well done. Not sure I believe it, but it makes some evil sense.

 

[Count of Monte Sawed-Off]

I guess I'm the only one who doesn't think Ramsay sent that letter. As I mentioned earlier, every other letter he wrote contained a piece of flayed skin. The letter to Jon did not.

My guess is that Melly orchestrated an elaborate scheme, both at the Wall and with Mance at Winterfell, to get Jon to out of the Watch. All the things in the letter Ramsay shouldn't have known about make sense if written by Mance, and we know that crystal has power over him. Either Mance wrote it himself, or forced Ramsay to write it.

ooooooooooooooh. Mance sending it would make sense. For a moment there I thought that maybe Mel somehow sent the letter herself, but quickly dismissed that as she couldn't know about Theon.

 

[squicken]

Ooh, that might be a nice theory. Well done. Not sure I believe it, but it makes some evil sense.

I have no doubt Ramsay didn't send the letter. If you go back and read where he wrote letters to people, it's always mentioned how a piece of brown skin falls out of the parchment as its opened. If he had Mance, he would have flayed him as he flayed Theon.

Now as to the exact motives of Mance and Melly, that's just my crazy guess.

 

[Pkaz01]

Going to the Vale would make some sense. He has a lot of friends there (and no Lannisters crawling about like in the Riverlands), and it would give him an opportunity to discover Sansa's existence (or possibly to join up Bronze Yohn in fighting against Littlefinger).

Yea it would be a good way to lead to Littlefingers eventual downfall. i don't see him lasting long, especially if and when Sansa learns about fake arya and what littlefinger did to her father. Having the blackfish there to help her and make littlefinger shit himself would make it all the better.

 

[elrechazado]

Hearing a mention of littlefinger makes me really bummed there was no peek at what was going on with sansa and littlefinger. The presence of the mad mouse with littlefinger makes me wonder what's going on there, and who knows what.

 

[Piecake]

I have no doubt Ramsay didn't send the letter. If you go back and read where he wrote letters to people, it's always mentioned how a piece of brown skin falls out of the parchment as its opened. If he had Mance, he would have flayed him as he flayed Theon.

Now as to the exact motives of Mance and Melly, that's just my crazy guess.

Interesting. That does make sense. That also explains why Martin made Jon take a rash course of action since if he didnt, took the prudent course, and waited to find out what the Bolton's did first, then nothing would come of it. I still think the rash action fits with Jon's character, especially without his support system to real him in, but with that rash action, something will come of Mel or Macne's actions. I'd definitely put my money on Mel, or Mel convincing Mance to write that letter.

Well, its definitely not Bowen Marsh because I don't think he is that devious and truly regretted what he thought he had to do to protect the Night's Watch. I'd put my money on Mel though

 

[Count of Monte Sawed-Off]

I miss Littlefinger too. While I was reading the book I was also incredibly missing Varys, but then we got his awesome reveal, and all was well. Although it changed how I thought about him. I used to think he was all about the good of the realm, now...

 

[bengraven]

Going back to her betrayels, I wonder if Dany's betrayel for love might be Daario?

I mean, that he actually loves her is up for debate and few of us think he actually cares about anything but power and sex, but what if he actually does love her and will betray her because she married someone else and he's hurt?

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Him being flung over the walls via catapult in Barristan's last chapters puts a lid on any Daario betrayal, I think.

He was a red herring. Everyone expected him to be one of the betrayals (even Dany thinks about he's probably going to be one of them), and then it wound up being Brown Ben Plumm.

 

[elrechazado]

brown ben wasn't even significant enough to be a betrayal imo. Why should dany even believe a prophecy btw (and why should we) that came from the freaking warlocks? I'm more interested in quaithe's role.

 

[Count of Monte Sawed-Off]

Going back to her betrayels, I wonder if Dany's betrayel for love might be Daario?

I mean, that he actually loves her is up for debate and few of us think he actually cares about anything but power and sex, but what if he actually does love her and will betray her because she married someone else and he's hurt?

I'd say there a 90% chance its Daario. The only thing going against him is that he's too obvious. He'll be her downfall for sure though, whether there's a betrayal or not. As she's about to finally advance on Westeros her raging case syphilis will overwhelm her and she'll spend the rest of the series sitting on a stump drooling all the while imagining it's the Iron Throne.

 

[iammeiam]

Him being flung over the walls via catapult in Barristan's last chapters puts a lid on any Daario betrayal, I think.

He was a red herring. Everyone expected him to be one of the betrayals (even Dany thinks about he's probably going to be one of them), and then it wound up being Brown Ben Plumm.

I don't think he was sent over in a trebuchet. They launched 'all six', but at that point weren't they down to three hostages? Started with seven, then killed one, returned three, and kept Daario and two others. It could go either way, but explicitly calling out six bodies being launched makes it seem more likely it's plague-ridden corpses than hostages.

 

[Piecake]

Going back to the whole Ramsey letter thing, I am really starting to think that Mel sent it and made that decision after she and Jon sent Mance to the South to save Ayra. My reasoning for this is that at that time, Mel and Mance, well, really Mel, really had no reason to concoct a scheme like that since Jon trusted her.

Later though, when her interpretations were proved to be incorrect and Jon started losing faith and trust in her, she really has no opportunity to contact Mance and Mance really has no reason on his own to write that letter. What Mel gains is Jon's reliance, trust, what-have-you again, and I think she took this step, a step that would likely lead to Jon making a rash decision is that she know's Jon is very important, and without something drastic happening, like her saving his life, he was and will lose trust and faith in her. Mel couldnt permit that to happen so she had to do something drastic.

I could definitely see Mel doing something like that since the battle between dark and light is all she cares about, and she believes that her influence and advice is needed to keep the important players in line to succeed. With Jon, she was losing his trust and she would do anything to get that back since nothing is more important to her than the final conflict

Mance, I dont really see his reasoning

 

[Lirlond]

Just finished after it arrived late(Fuck bookdepository, seriously), and I fucking loved it. Sure the Wall chapters weren't that great, and every chapter but the last two of dany's sucked(though that seems to be the trend) I loved the reveal of Aegon and Connington, I fucking /knew/ Connington was up to something.

I think Boltons letter was planted from within the watch, designed to trip up Snow and give the watch reason to backstab him. Theres no mention of a seal, just "Sealed with pink wax", so its very possible.

Oh well. Time to hibernate for the 3 years(lol) it takes to write TWoW

 

[Piecake]

Just finished after it arrived late(Fuck bookdepository, seriously), and I fucking loved it. Sure the Wall chapters weren't that great, and every chapter but the last two of dany's sucked(though that seems to be the trend) I loved the reveal of Aegon and Connington, I fucking /knew/ Connington was up to something.

I think Boltons letter was planted from within the watch, designed to trip up Snow and give the watch reason to backstab him. Theres no mention of a seal, just "Sealed with pink wax", so its very possible.

Oh well. Time to hibernate for the 3 years(lol) it takes to write TWoW

I really don't think Marsh or Yarwick wrote that letter. Mostly because I don't think either of it has it in him and I think Marsh truly regretted having to do what he did. Besides those two, who else? Thorne was sent away and doesnt have the knowledge, the same with other Slynt's cronnies. Only Mel and Mance knew that Mance was sent down to the south to rescue Ayra. Either it was someone in Winterfell - Ramsey or Mance, or it was Mel. My money is on Mel

 

[Mockingbird]

How about send scouts out to see if stannis is dead, whether winterfell has really fallen, and or whether ramsay is actually marching for the wall before you go all braveheart with the wildlings and run off by yourself? It was stupid.

He can't send scouts. It would be ordering them to take part in the war.

Everything that led up to Bolton's letter was by Jon's own doing. Jon can't ask others to go and die for him -- especially the men of the Night's Watch.

 

[elrechazado]

He can't send scouts. It would be ordering them to take part in the war.

Sending scouts to see if someone is attacking the wall is not ordering them to take part in the war. Not sure why you think that makes sense at all.

 

[jett]

edit: I'd say Jon had the best chapter in the book. The one where he kills Slynt. I loved that. Other than that his chapters were pretty repetitive. Not necessarily bad, just reptitive. Theon may have had the best chapters. Arya's were pretty good. Her and Selmy's were the only Essos chapters I enjoyed aside from Quentyn's last. Tyrion had his moments but overall his were pretty weak and Dany's just plain sucked. Everyone else was alright.

I agree with this assessment. Slynt getting killed was also my favorite moment in the book...by far.

Dany's chapters were god awful. How could this take 6 years to make?

 

[Basileus777]

I guess I'm the only one who doesn't think Ramsay sent that letter. As I mentioned earlier, every other letter he wrote contained a piece of flayed skin. The letter to Jon did not.

My guess is that Melly orchestrated an elaborate scheme, both at the Wall and with Mance at Winterfell, to get Jon to out of the Watch. All the things in the letter Ramsay shouldn't have known about make sense if written by Mance, and we know that crystal has power over him. Either Mance wrote it himself, or forced Ramsay to write it.

To support this, with Ramsay's other letters his type of handwriting is described, for this one, it isn't.

 

[Mockingbird]

Sending scouts to see if someone is attacking the wall is not ordering them to take part in the war. Not sure why you think that makes sense at all.

What would sending scouts do? They've no idea where Stannis' men are. The only course for the scouts is go to Winterfell and do nothing but waste more time and potentially have Ramsay march on the wall by then. Not to mention the storm that's going on and potentially having the scouts die and not even make it to Winterfell. Jon goes, disconnects himself from the watch, thereby distancing the Watch from any danger.

I really don't think Marsh or Yarwick wrote that letter. Mostly because I don't think either of it has it in him and I think Marsh truly regretted having to do what he did. Besides those two, who else? Thorne was sent away and doesnt have the knowledge, the same with other Slynt's cronnies. Only Mel and Mance knew that Mance was sent down to the south to rescue Ayra. Either it was someone in Winterfell - Ramsey or Mance, or it was Mel. My money is on Mel

That would be totally out of character. It's definitely from Bolton.

 

[elrechazado]

What would sending scouts do? They've no idea where Stannis' men are. The only course for the scouts is go to Winterfell and do nothing but waste more time and potentially have Ramsay march on the wall by then. Not to mention the storm that's going on and potentially having the scouts die and not even make it to Winterfell. Jon goes, disconnects himself from the watch, thereby distancing the Watch from any danger.

Uhh, there's one way from winterfell to castle black. Sending 3 scouts with 5 ravens (something they've already done) isn't hard, and you keep assuming that scouts means they'll go attack and or get caught by ramsay's army for some reason....makes no sense. Do you know what scout means?

 

[Piecake]

What would sending scouts do? They've no idea where Stannis' men are. The only course for the scouts is go to Winterfell and do nothing but waste more time and potentially have Ramsay march on the wall by then. Not to mention the storm that's going on and potentially having the scouts die and not even make it to Winterfell. Jon goes, disconnects himself from the watch, thereby distancing the Watch from any danger.

They dont go to confirm whether the letter about Stannis, Mance, etc is true or not. They go South and see if Bolton is actually marching up to attack them. If they are, they report back so that Jon can gather his forces to meet them, flee, surrender, bake a cake, or whatever.

He didnt disconnect himself from the watch. The Lord Commander especially cannot distance himself from the Night's Watch. he is the face and name of the Night's watch now. You can't leave, resign, or take a sabbatical for personal reasons from the Night's Watch either. The only way to resign is your death

That would be totally out of character. It's definitely from Bolton.

How so? Like others have said, this letter did not contain a piece of human skin so being from Ramsey is suspect. Moreover, Jon was losing trust and faith in Mel, and Mel couldnt permit that since she has seen in her fires that Jon is important and she believes that it is her mission/duty to be the one to guide/advise the important pieces in the last battle.

Mel couldnt have one of those important pieces not consult with her or hear her consul, so she took a drastic action to change that

 

[Mockingbird]

Uhh, there's one way from winterfell to castle black. Sending 3 scouts with 5 ravens (something they've already done) isn't hard, and you keep assuming that scouts means they'll go attack and or get caught by ramsay's army for some reason....makes no sense. Do you know what scout means?

Did I say the scouts were to attack or engage the boltons? I didn't say the scouts were envoys. The storm could kill the men before even arriving, but now that you mention it, it's possible for them to be caught and flayed by the Boltons as well.

You seem to be missing out on the fact that Bolton's quarrel is with Snow and not the Watch. Ramsay will only march on the wall if Jon Snow doesn't give him what he wants. Sending scouts would be asking them to take part in something that was never a matter of the Night's Watch -- only a personal matter of Jon Snow.

Scouting is very pointless. Scouts can't confirm Stannis is dead unless they happen upon Stannis -- but they've no idea where he would be. The scouts would know where Winterfell is and they can confirm there's an army at Winterfell and that's it. If they see that the Bolton's are marching on the wall they could ride back to the wall post haste and tell them the Bolton's are coming but at best they'd be a day or two ahead of the army -- which would be pointless. Scouting from the Wall when you're hundreds of leagues away is pointless unless you plan to sit and wait for the enemy to come to you -- which is not an option. If the Watch is attacked from the South it'll be a slaughter. Better to not have them march on you at all by going to him.

Jon's best course is to go meet Bolton away from the wall. The conclusion he came to after two hours of deliberating with Tormund.

How so? Like others have said, this letter did not contain a piece of human skin so being from Ramsey is suspect.

The skin thing happened once. Not all of his letters need have skin.

 

[elrechazado]

Did I say the scouts were to attack or engage the boltons? I didn't say the scouts were envoys. The storm could kill the men before even arriving, but now that you mention it, it's possible for them to be caught and flayed by the Boltons as well.

You seem to be missing out on the fact that Bolton's quarrel is with Snow and not the Watch. Ramsay will only march on the wall if Jon Snow doesn't give him what he wants. Sending scouts would be asking them to take part in something that was never a matter of the Night's Watch -- only a personal matter of Jon Snow.

Scouting is very pointless. Scouts can't confirm Stannis is dead unless they happen upon Stannis -- but they've no idea where he would be. The scouts would know where Winterfell is and they can confirm there's an army at Winterfell and that's it. If they see that the Bolton's are marching on the wall they could ride back to the wall post haste and tell them the Bolton's are coming but at best they'd be a day or two ahead of the army -- which would be pointless. Scouting from the Wall when you're hundreds of leagues away is pointless unless you plan to sit and wait for the enemy to come to you -- which is not an option. If the Watch is attacked from the South it'll be a slaughter. Better to not have them march on you at all by going to him.

Jon's best course is to go meet Bolton away from the wall. The conclusion he came to after two hours of deliberating with Tormund.




The skin thing happened once. Not all of his letters need have skin.

uhhh...ok. btw, once? You need to reread.

 

[jett]

When I read the book I had no reason to believe the letter was from anyone but Bolton. I guess you guys have planted some doubt in me but Bolton really is who makes most sense.

BTW, Robert Strong is obviously the Mountain, right? Or some sort of Frankenstenian monster.

 

[Piecake]

Did I say the scouts were to attack or engage the boltons? I didn't say the scouts were envoys. The storm could kill the men before even arriving, but now that you mention it, it's possible for them to be caught and flayed by the Boltons as well.

You seem to be missing out on the fact that Bolton's quarrel is with Snow and not the Watch. Ramsay will only march on the wall if Jon Snow doesn't give him what he wants. Sending scouts would be asking them to take part in something that was never a matter of the Night's Watch -- only a personal matter of Jon Snow.

Scouting is very pointless. Scouts can't confirm Stannis is dead unless they happen upon Stannis -- but they've no idea where he would be. The scouts would know where Winterfell is and they can confirm there's an army at Winterfell and that's it. If they see that the Bolton's are marching on the wall they could ride back to the wall post haste and tell them the Bolton's are coming but at best they'd be a day or two ahead of the army -- which would be pointless. Scouting from the Wall when you're hundreds of leagues away is pointless unless you plan to sit and wait for the enemy to come to you -- which is not an option. If the Watch is attacked from the South it'll be a slaughter. Better to not have them march on you at all by going to him.

Jon's best course is to go meet Bolton away from the wall. The conclusion he came to after two hours of deliberating with Tormund.

You dont seem to understand that Snow is the Lord Commander of the Night's watch so any quarrel with him is a quarrel with the Night's Watch. The two are tied together and cannot be undone.

Sending scouts will not make them complicit or be pointless. The point is to see whether Bolton makes good on his threat and attacks, so the NW has ample warning. It is not to find out the exact truth of the letter - whether Stannis is dead, etc, just if he comes to carry out his threat against the NW. They don't go down to Winter fell to do that. They just go far enough to give the Watch ample warning if they spot Bolton on the road. They would give them ample warning by taking ravens so they would have more than a day or two to prepare.

Attacking Bolton is a betrayal of Jon's oath. The only way he avoids that and retains the loyalty of the Watch who disagree with him is to wait for Bolton to attack him first so he can be seen as defending himself, and claim that the letter's contents about Mance is a lie, a pretense for Bolton to attack Stannis's forces here.

I was wondering how Mel knows about Reek and Ayra, but I guess she could see that in her fires.

 

[Count of Monte Sawed-Off]

When I read the book I had no reason to believe the letter was from anyone but Bolton. I guess you guys have planted some doubt in me but Bolton really is who makes most sense.

BTW, Robert Strong is obviously the Mountain, right? Or some sort of Frankenstenian monster.

Yeah, there's definitely part of the Moutain in Bob S. Maybe a different head though, assuming they sent Gregor's actual skull to Dorne. I like to picture that Stokeworth girls head under the helmet.

 

[Piecake]

When I read the book I had no reason to believe the letter was from anyone but Bolton. I guess you guys have planted some doubt in me but Bolton really is who makes most sense.

BTW, Robert Strong is obviously the Mountain, right? Or some sort of Frankenstenian monster.

Gregorstein

But yea, I think either Mel or Ramsey writing the letter makes sense. Though why would Ramsey bother to write a letter? He seems like the kind of guy who wouldnt be satisfied with just getting those people back, he would only be satisfied by punishing, torturing the offender. Mel, I think, makes a lot of sense, but I wonder how she knows about Reek - again, I guess the fires, but who knows

 

[Mockingbird]

You dont seem to understand that Snow is the Lord Commander of the Night's watch so any quarrel with him is a quarrel with the Night's Watch. The two are tied together and cannot be undone.

What? You don't seem to understand that this is not the case. Jon sending Mance out to fetch arya was a secret not known to the Watch. He tried to one up Bolton with deceit and this has nothing to do with the watch. The Watch need not stand by the commander since he foreswore his vows in doing this.

Sending scouts will not make them complicit or be pointless. The point is to see whether Bolton makes good on his threat and attacks, so the NW has ample warning. It is not to find out the exact truth of the letter - whether Stannis is dead, etc, just if he comes to carry out his threat against the NW. They don't go down to Winter fell to do that. They just go far enough to give the Watch ample warning if they spot Bolton on the road. They would give them ample warning by taking ravens so they would have more than a day or two to prepare.

Attacking Bolton is a betrayal of Jon's oath. The only way he avoids that and retains the loyalty of the Watch who disagree with him is to wait for Bolton to attack him first so he can be seen as defending himself, and claim that the letter's contents about Mance is a lie, a pretense for Bolton to attack Stannis's forces here.

I was wondering how Mel knows about Reek and Ayra, but I guess she could see that in her fires.

In the case Jon stays it's not a matter of whether the Boltons WILL march on the Wall if Jon doesn't give him his bride, but a matter of WHEN. Sending scouts, as I said earlier, will let you know when the Boltons march but the scouts can at best stay ahead of the army by a few days. Even with the ravens it's ultimately pointless because the Watch is defenseless when attacked from the South. It'd be a slaughter no matter what should they fight from the Wall. Jon going there will keep the Boltons from ever marching in the first place and disconnect the Night's Watch from the war.

uhhh...ok. btw, once? You need to reread.

Did he do it one other time in Book 3? I only recall him doing it to Theon, but it's been a while since I've read a storm of swords.

 

[Piecake]

What? You don't seem to understand that this is not the case. Jon sending Mance out to fetch arya was a secret not known to the Watch. He tried to one up Bolton with deceit and this has nothing to do with the watch. The Watch need not stand by the commander since he foreswore his vows in doing this.





In the case Jon stays it's not a matter of whether the Boltons WILL march on the Wall if Jon doesn't give him his bride, but a matter of WHEN. Sending scouts, as I said earlier, will let you know when the Boltons march but the scouts can at best stay ahead of the army by a few days. Even with the ravens it's ultimately pointless because the Watch is defenseless when attacked from the South. It'd be a slaughter no matter what should they fight from the Wall. Jon going there will keep the Boltons from ever marching in the first place and disconnect the Night's Watch from the war.



Did he do it one other time in Book 3? I only recall him doing it to Theon, but it's been a while since I've read a storm of swords.

No, Everything the Lord Commander does he does in the name of the Night's Watch. The two are linked. The Night's Watch might not have known about his decision to do that, but Bolton has no way of knowing that. This was an action taken by the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch so he and the NW are responsible.

Who is disputing whether its a matter of will or when? Of course its when, and those scouts would definitely bring ravens to give more time. The purpose of sending scouts to see when the Boltons are attacking is to show that they are not the aggressors and give them options, attack, defend, flee, flee beyond the wall, capitulate, whatever.

By going south and attacking Bolton, he is staining the NWs and making them complicit with his oathbreaking, even if he only brings Wildlings with him. He basically said that he was going to break his oath to every man in the NW. Do you think that they would allow him to do that? If they did, they would be complicit. You could say that Bowen Marsh and the others simply did their duty by killing an oath breaker and preventing a stain on the honor of the Night's Watch, which a campaign by their Lord Commander, former or otherwise, leading a band of wildings against a the Warden of the North surely would be.

You say that it would be a slaughter if they fought the Boltons at castle black, but would it be a less of a slaughter if they faced them at Winterfell? Jon and a bunch of Wildings trying to storm and siege a castle? Yea, that sounds like it would work. No matter where the attack took place, it would have likely been a slaughter, the only hope that the NW had was to force Bolton to march North, lose men on the road, weaken him, and convince that Bolton is just blowing a bunch of hot air, that he is the aggressor and all of that about Mance is just a bunch of bull. Basically, paint the Bolton's action as an attempt to root out Stannis from the north for good and either say that we will take no part in their conflict, but will, if Bolton attacks us for the support, however little it may be, we were forced to give Stannis

 

[Puddles]

After thinking about why Dany's stuff was so weak, I sort of wonder if she was a total victim of the decision to not skip five years. Having her spend five years off-camera basically training for ruling the Seven Kingdoms by trying to get shit in Meereen together and ultimately failing makes sense, and things could have picked up right before her wedding or something. Two pages of her fucking Daario, the revelation that the dragons started to eat people and she's had them locked up for years, then into the wedding/fighting pits/post-flight stuff so she can get back to actually doing things. I'm assuming there's some plot-related thing that has to happen before she can actually leave for Westeros, and most of her chapters in this book are just status updates while she idles around waiting for... whatever interesting thing is coming.

I've been thinking a lot about this. Here's the conclusion I came to.

The conflict in Westeros will be over pretty quickly once Dany lands with dragons. They aren't even fully grown yet, and they can already slaughter people by the hundreds. The Tyrells, Lannisters, etc wouldn't stand a chance in battle. There was no way Dany could have entered Westeros in one of the early books like everyone wanted (though I was hoping she would at least be on her way by the end of ADWD).

 

[tino]

I've been thinking a lot about this. Here's the conclusion I came to.

The conflict in Westeros will be over pretty quickly once Dany lands with dragons. They aren't even fully grown yet, and they can already slaughter people by the hundreds. The Tyrells, Lannisters, etc wouldn't stand a chance in battle. There was no way Dany could have entered Westeros in one of the early books like everyone wanted (though I was hoping she would at least be on her way by the end of ADWD).

But the marking the winner of the iron throne is not ultimate plot of the series, the battle between the Others and Men/Children of Forest is. Even secrets of Lyanna/Ashara are more important than the iron throne.

There is no way this series can end in 2 books.

 

[Piecake]

I've been thinking a lot about this. Here's the conclusion I came to.

The conflict in Westeros will be over pretty quickly once Dany lands with dragons. They aren't even fully grown yet, and they can already slaughter people by the hundreds. The Tyrells, Lannisters, etc wouldn't stand a chance in battle. There was no way Dany could have entered Westeros in one of the early books like everyone wanted (though I was hoping she would at least be on her way by the end of ADWD).

The problem with Dany chapters is that there are no good characters around her. Look how the Tyrion chapters suffered when he just had Penny and Jorah to play off of - they were a whole lot weaker since Penny and Jorah (ADWD Jorah) were a lot less interesting characters than Connington, Aegon, Duck, etc.

Barriston sure got interesting when we got his PoV, but he sure doesnt do or say much in Dany's chapters. The only somewhat interesting character is that little slave girl that I forgot the name of.

This might have screwed with his timeline, but a simple way to make Dany and Tyrion's chapters a whole lot more interesting was to have those two characters meet and interact. Basically get rid of the storm, Tyrion's slavery, have him lad in Meereen and present himself to Dany. The conflicts and drama between Dany, Barriston, Tyrion, and jorah, would have been awesome.

Or hell, just have her meet Marwyn if GRRM didnt want tyrion and Dany to meet yet. That would have been interesting. Instead, she only met one of the people traveling to see her, and he is definitely the most boring character amongst them.

 

[ZephyrFate]

But the marking the winner of the iron throne is not ultimate plot of the series, the battle between the Others and Men/Children of Forest is. Even secrets of Lyanna/Ashara are more important than the iron throne.

There is no way this series can end in 2 books.

And when it does, everyone will eat crow.

I have faith Martin can pull it off. He hasn't let me down yet.

 

[Puddles]

Actually, I really loved the whole Mereen vs Yunkai + everyone else with a hand in the slave trade cookie jar conflict. The build-up was fantastic, IMO. I just wish it had ended with an actual battle.

As an aside, the way that people from the free cities talk to Dany to try to trick and manipulate her is, in my experience, EXACTLY the way people in India and the Middle East do it. "Oh, but these people are not to be trusted! You are a stranger here, you do not know our ways. These people will make much trouble for you! You can trust me though, I will help you, I will make a good price for you!" Well, maybe that last line wasn't in the books, but everything else sure was. =p

 

[ZephyrFate]

Actually, I really loved the whole Mereen vs Yunkai + everyone else with a hand in the slave trade cookie jar conflict. The build-up was fantastic, IMO. I just wish it had ended with an actual battle.

As an aside, the way that people from the free cities talk to Dany to try to trick and manipulate her is, in my experience, EXACTLY the way people in India and the Middle East do it. "Oh, but these people are not to be trusted! You are a stranger here, you do not know our ways. These people will make much trouble for you! You can trust me though, I will help you, I will make a good price for you!" Well, maybe that last line wasn't in the books, but everything else sure was. =p

I never looked at it that way, but it's so fucking true! That's awesome. Kudos to Martin.

 

[squicken]

I really don't think Marsh or Yarwick wrote that letter. Mostly because I don't think either of it has it in him and I think Marsh truly regretted having to do what he did. Besides those two, who else? Thorne was sent away and doesnt have the knowledge, the same with other Slynt's cronnies. Only Mel and Mance knew that Mance was sent down to the south to rescue Ayra. Either it was someone in Winterfell - Ramsey or Mance, or it was Mel. My money is on Mel

I think the Brothers forged the letter from the captain guy about the troubles at Hardhome. He's illiterate, and so the maester writes all his letters. Not too far a stretch that the maester could be in league with Marsh and Thorne.

Something I'm curious about is why Jon couldn't defend himself when getting stabbed. He successfully parried the first cut, but when he tried to grab his sword, he had trouble getting his hand to grab it.